Bitcoin Forum

The prerequisites are as follows:

1. Obviously, you need an honest broker who isn't going to change quotes and things on you when the market is going your way.

2. You need a broker who accepts Stops and Limits, hedging, and scalping, which leaves most (if not all) U.S. brokers out. The reason for Stops and Limits is simple. If you have a good strategy, and you set your Stop at 90, and your Limit at 10, you are going to get your limit most of the time. In fact, you might get your limit very fast after initiating the trade. This is the reason you need a broker who allows scalping.

If you are stopped out now and again, multiply the number of lots in your next trade (in many cases it is better to skip a trade before applying the lot multiple) so that your loss is covered. This is why you need a good Strategy, so that your high-lot trade doesn't become a loser, as well.

Hedging is for balance, so that you can be winning in one direction while you are losing in the other.

3. Of course, you should find a broker with a small spread. And you should use one of the major currency pairs - EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD - for faster execution. However, almost any of the 14 top pairs can be made to work. TEST! As has been said many places many times, past performance is no indicator of future results.

4. I would recommend a significantly large investment (for a little trader), say, similar to $2,000 USD. However, if you have a good Strategy, an investment of as little as $500 USD might be sufficient. The reason for a good investment is to cover drawdown, which is almost certain to happen now and again.

5. Using this kind of Stop/Limit activity, it is often best to initiate trades during the quiet time in the market, the time between major activity on all the markets. This time is generally between 7PM GMT and 10PM GMT. Of course, if you have a Strategy that works better with other times, do what works best for you.

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If you have the above basics, here is a little Strategy that should work. But test it out in demos and with back testing before you trust it. Here it is.

A. Work with the hourly GMT times listed above - 7PM, 8PM, 9PM, 10PM.

B. Have a maximum of 1 trade running at any one time in both directions, long or short, for a total of 2 trades max. This is your hedging. Some of these trades may be in multiple lots to make up for previous losses, because of the high Stop and the low Limit.

C. I would use the EURUSD pair to start, until I had checked out others through testing.

D. When you start, at 7PM GMT, open two trades, one long and the other short. Set the Limit on both at 10, and the Stop at 90. This is the IMPORTANT part of the Strategy.

E. At 8PM GMT, check your two trades to see if the Stop or Limit has closed one or both of the trades. If it has, open another trade so that you always have two trades running, one long and the other short.

F. Come back at 9PM and 10PM and do the same. If any closed trades happen to be losses, skip a trade, and then multiply the lots of the next trade sufficiently to cover the loss of the losing trade - usually 12 or 13 lots, depending on the spread.

G. Come back the next trading day and start over, always skipping one trade before multiplying lots to cover a losing trade.

That's it.

In your testing of the above Strategy, you might be able to find hours that work better than those suggested. Or there might be a difference because of Daylight Savings Time. Use what works.

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I have only used the above Strategy in testing.
The tests cover about a half-year worth of time starting the beginning of February, 2014.
The results are in the range of 222 total trades.
Fifteen trades were losses.
I used a multiplier of 13.
I limited my multiplied trades to a max of 10 lots per trade, with the extra 3 added to the following trade.
The ratio was 1:400.
The spread was 2, making each single-lot win 8, and the single-lot losses 92.
There were no multiple-lot losses.
My total winnings were just over $1500 USD.
The largest drawdown was a little over $340 USD, near the beginning of the 6th month.
I consistently get similar results when I run this test.

I'm considering starting a running, free "advisory" here, using a different Strategy, one that is safer, but doesn't earn as much. If I did this, it would be for the purpose of other traders to test with me, to see what results they get. It would be time consuming for me, and so I need to get a feel for how many people might be interested.

U.S. traders might need to team up with someone from a different country, because the U.S. government is such a stickler for keeping their people as poor as they can manage, so they don't allow Stop/Limit, hedging, and scalping. In addition, they have FIFO, First In First Out trading, so that trades have to be closed in the order that they were opened. And, they only allow a 1:50 ratio, making it much longer to win substantial amounts of money.

Once a non-U.S. person sets up an account somewhere, many brokers will allow anybody to do the actual trading. This means that a non-U.S. person can set up the account, while the U.S. person can do the actual trading. If it is the U.S. person who has the funds, he can transfer them to his non-U.S. partner via Bitcoin.

Bitcoin would be a good method to transfer funds and split earnings. It wouldn't be direct, of course. Seems to me that few Forex brokers anywhere use Bitcoin to fund accounts. So, there would have to be some trust involved between the U.S. person and the non-U.S. person.

What does anyone think so far? Should I start the daily advisory with the other Strategy I mentioned?


:)


If any of this has been interesting or profitable for you, and you feel you want to donate bitcoins, here is my Bitcoin address: 1NExmDhZCzsszFrDCKyREAb1mdUdZHc3XX. Thanks in advance.

we have bitcoin and exchanges, why forex?

Most forex brokers are bucket shops.

Hard to win against them if you use leverage and they quote you the price.

Why not? since Bitcoin as an investment isn't moving very fast.

If you have a place and a method for winning bitcoins Forex-style, I'm ready. But I don't have a lot to invest.

Thanks in advance.

:)

Actually, that's part of the reason for this topic. I'd like to get results and input from others.

Thanks.

:)

Great post, but why gamble with Forex when you can put it all on BTC and wait longer for bigger gains tho?

This is difficult to answer. If the banking system collapsed today, Bitcoin would probably rocket to the moon and beyond. The problem is, who knows for sure when the banking system will collapse?

My above Strategy has shown promise. And the other one that I mentioned shows much safety along with promise. If I can make more fiat money using the Forex, then I have more fiat money to buy bitcoins.

Personally, like you, I feel that the gamble is in the fiat money. Bitcoin will be strong. But for the moment you can't generally go to the corner grocery store and buy your food with bitcoins. So, we need both. Let's hope that we are ready for the fiat crash when it comes.

:)

Learn from the best analists how they read the charts and use indicators (studies). There are plenty video's on youtube. Many patterns are returning situations and if you can understand them it's possible to find most likely scenario's. Ofcourse you can't be always right but if you can do it more often than 50% you make a profit. (If you still have money left after a downswing  ;D)

In my own personal experience, Forex is the equivalent of gambling. Nobody really knows whats gonna happen next. The only way to win is to either be extremely lucky, or to have loads of cash.

If you really want to go into forex, I would say try Etoro, and follow one of the successful traders so you can learn their strategy before trading on your own. Be careful who you follow though, most successful traders are only successful because they keep putting more money into the trade when they see it isn't going their way. There are only a handful that keep to their stop loss.

I wouldn't advise people to join the forex market unless you are 100% willing to lose your entire investment, because that will most likely be the outcome. Sorry for sounding so negative, but the stats don't lie.

"First rule of Wall Street - Nobody - and I don't care if you're Warren Buffet or Jimmy Buffet - nobody knows if a stock is going up, down or f-ing sideways, least of all stockbrokers. But we have to pretend we know." - Mark Hanna

From The Wolf of wall street

Well there certainly are possibilities to try and analyse the likelyhood of a stock going up or down and ofcourse it's not as in 'knowing' where it goes, there's never guarantees.
But for example these days it is more likely that stocks in general will go lower on the midterm since economic sanctions have a growing impact upon the markets. For the same reason you can conclude it is more likely that gold will get more expensive and when stocks go down hard there is more pressure for the US dollar to go up. Hopefully Bitcoin will gain more ground as a commodity to put your money in when stocks go down. Economic drama can certainly be fuel for a rally in crypto's like we've seen with the Cyprus meltdown of banks, the first US$260 top was just weeks after.

The reason for scalping is to take some of the edge off the fact that we don't know for sure which way the market is heading. The reason for hedging, and high Stops and low Limits is the same. While we can't predict, the market has always followed certain patterns and mathematical laws. There are other things besides direct predicting that make success feasible. Obviously, if everything went wild, like might happen at the time just before the big fiat crash that is coming, the laws of math that we use might not work for profitability any longer. Not saying that the laws would change. Just saying that there is certain stability and long-range predictability in the way the fiats work. Is this stability something that has been artificially added to the market by the banks, so that they can rape the nations? Probably.

:)

It seems that people trading in bitcoin do not touch forex and vice versa. I wonder why is that? Different psychology?

It's not true really. Many forex brokers have setup btc/usd trading but it's still young. Serious traders and wallstreet have been waiting for more regulatory guidance and confirmation that the use of crypto's is legal. But since FinCen has stated that bitcoin should be treated as a commodity like gold, more big companies have entered the scene, even gold and oil companies have interest and there's several cases of cryptofunds willing to list on large exchanges. Google: forex bitcoin, and you will find a lot.

I remember seeing on a chat room about how happy a guy claiming to be a stock broker/trader was that he could finally trade on weekends lol :P

Bitcoin is more profitable than forex :D haha

If I started with bitcoin today, show me the better profits.

:)

Bitcoin is more volatile. That's why a lot of people who love forex trading are interested in it. The action is simply higher. On the other hand, Bitcoin is still rather small and it's market depth isn't as high as other FIAT currencies. It depends on your trading skills and nerves and not necessarily on what you're actually trading!

The way to make a small fortune trading forex on margin is to start with a large fortune.

Who needs a large fortune if you have leveraged trading??? Hell, it's the FIAT world, just borrow some money and trade the crap outta those forex markets! Leveraged trading really is only for people who know exactly what they're doing and realize they could lose everything!

Right! And since it has been shown in many legal documents all over the Net, that when you borrow money, you really are creating it, pay off your loss debt with modern forms of "accepted for value" (creating more debt to pay off other debt, http://educationcenter2000.com/accepted_for_value.html), and then go out and make another loan to do the Forex again.

Search on the words "accepted for value afv a4v" in the DuckDuckGo (https://duckduckgo.com/) search engine.

:)

EDIT: http://educationcenter2000.com/Secret_Banker%27s_Manual.pdf.

Basically have inside info

Bitcoin programming is kinda like having inside info.

:)

Well, I signed up with a Forex broker, with a demo account. The thing that I missed was that the account was NOT a scalping account, so I could not run at a 10 pip Limit as my original post said.

This broker used the MT4 trading protocol. With it I was able to download the 1-hour history going back to the beginning of February, 2014. I built a spreadsheet around the data and found that this data produced results similar to my original (which is NOT MT4).

My next question is, is the MT4 historical data from MetaQuotes, so that it is the same for every broker that uses MT4, or is it the individual brokers' historical data, simply applied to their particular MT4 program? Does anyone have the answer for this?

:)

Lot of luck and no fear :)

two words, margin call.   the volatility of forex will normally finish off a small time trader when their leveraged position blows through a stop loss.


As I say you only need a large fortune if you want to end up with a small fortune.     

You can take any size fortune and turn it into zero quite easily.

No such thing as luck. There is only cause and effect. Fear comes through ignorance of cause and effect.

:)

1) Have luck

Good money management and prudent stop loss with modest leverage but if you are a high risk gambler then high leverage off the breakouts looking at fundamentals like major news events,farm payroll,interest hikes,employment,manufacturing etc and good technical analysis indicators..Compound your winnings and have a higher margin each time until you are quickly rich ;D or very broke :-[

After 15 years, part-time, of dabbling, calculating, formulating, back-testing, etc., the Strategy in my first post, above ( https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=727301.msg8221050#msg8221050 ), produces the best results over the longest period of time, of anything I have seen. The key is the 10-pip Limit against the 90-pip Stop, with the multiplier added.

If you can find an honest broker who will let you do what I have listed there, you will win BIG if you don't get stupid about it.

:)

I agree with you. I think Forex is not a easy business, actually it's a tough one. To be successful on Forex you need experience and also help from your luck.

1) skillz

use a broker with tight spreads if scalping

bzzzt.  there is *NO* guaranteed formula that will win small, let alone big, with no risk of losing your entire bankroll.

It's the holy grail of gamblers since time immemorial, and, like those who search for perpeptual motion machines it will never be found.

If there was then organisations with money and resources would load it up on the black box of their choice,  make massive trades and make bazillions of dollars with no risk.

you might as well go play roulette with martingale until you reach the house table limit (and can't make back your last bet) or run out of money. at least you'll get free drinks while doing it.

You are right, or close to it. I have only tested back about 7 months. If the people who regulate the Forex decided they would pull the strings in such a way that made this method impossible to win at, this method would come crashing down like all the rest.

The Forex string-pullers have a job to do. It isn't a hard job. What it is, is to regulate the Forex in such a way that most of the traders won't realize that the Forex is being regulated, won't realize that they are working with a scam market out to rob them blind, and that they have a much better chance of winning by forgetting the Forex and staying with their day job.

The brokers have realized this. The brokers are generally just as dumb as the traders, except that the brokers are cashing in on the traders, just like the controllers are. The trick is to find a formula that beats the controllers' methods for controlling covertly. That's what my method is. The reason that it will last is that, if they decided to change the system to break it, it would reveal so much about how the market was controlled, that the little guy would abandon it. And he might find ways to abandon the banks that are screwing him, ways like Bitcoin.

Now you can see what the Forex really is. It is a voluntary income tax... of a different kind than the voluntary IRS tax.

:)

very good broker

Roboforex
 (http://www.roboforex.com/?a=amrf/)
 small spread , alowing scalping ,"bot", fast. Problem only one- "trader"  ;D
recently "burned" my account balance... >:(

Thanks. I just sent them an email. :)

I would rather invest on BTC than on forex,Could't agree more that forex is serious gambling while  bitcoin is sureshot profit.

It is a gamble where I have lost always. The only who wins is etoro.

yep - but doesn't even need string pulling. natural volatility will close out most people who are trading with excessive leverage in the end

I have tested my luck with scalping in Forex and got some money but I quickly got out of that market.

never forget a stoploss

Wish they let you have them in the U.S.   ???

Winning at the Forex is boring work. Here's how to win.

1. Find a broker who allows hedging and scalping, and has a low Spread amount;
2. Use either the Hull Moving Average, or Linear Regression indicator; set it to 4;
3. Use the hourly chart on currency pair EURUSD;
4. Open trades only when the price has crossed the indicator on the hour;
5. Limit your number of open positions to one Buy and one Sell, max, with equal funding on both;
6. Start by doing one of the following, on the hour:
    a. If the price has moved from below the indicator to above the indicator, Buy;
    b. If the price has moved from above the indicator to below the indicator, Sell;
7. Set the Limit to 20 pips, no Stop;
8. If one of your trades closes via the Limit, immediately close the other manually (if you have another one open), or set up an EA to automatically close it for you (if your broker allows EAs).

That's it. Over time, you will win more than you lose, and probably a lot more. But... it will be time consuming.

If you are in the Western Hemisphere, you will have to work nights, because the most activity is between midnight and 6AM Eastern.

8)

any recommendations for forex accepting bitcoin?

Check out this list - https://www.earnforex.com/forex-brokers-us-traders/.

8)

read Ray Dalio's books