Bitcoin Forum

I saw the buying volume reached a top when it hit 4.90, sitting on cash now and waiting to see if 4.50 holds or we go lower, I say we go lower because people might be over leverage and bringing the price down to new lows...

We test $4.00 do we hold or go lower?

If people were stupid enough to (over)leverage longs at 4.8 - 5.0 then we could see a massive force liquidation spike down while approaching 4.50. And a chain reaction of these to... who knows?

No reason to go away from $4-5 range unless someone big enters the game.

I'm sure any real trader that is using technical analysis and trends is waiting... And its not even the weekend yet...

I was short before the drop happened and got out a bit too early. But even a small profit is
better then nothing. I have switched to going long.

So far I have done pretty poorly overall with my play money. Two poor decisions easily wipes out
several smaller good decisions which puts me in the red.

Lately I have been very impressed with BTC's resiliency to bounce back and forth to the 4.85 level.
I am hoping this weekend will be a buying opportunity for many as well that I notice there seems to
be a good level of buying in the evening Eastern time. So many large players have liquidated lately
they must be rolling in USD. The rest who have large amount of BTC may be the more patient type
and simply hold them long term.

just my two cents..

If the support at ~4.50 doesn't hold, it's a long way down from there. It did bounce pretty well and hold today.

Down to where and how do you know?

Back down to $.01 we go!  8)

Down to where? Between $4 & $4.25 is where I see the support. If we drop below $4.5 a trading range of $4 - $4.2 is what I'd expect.

I don't have the means to annotate a chart now, but if you look at the 2mo chart you can see that there are no previous lows between $4.5 and $4.2 (or so, bitcoincharts are a little squashed on my screens) With nothing between here and there, if we drop below that $4.50 mark, it's highly likely that we'll go down to where the previous support was. $4.50 represents both a chart support, and a mental support line. People like nice round numbers.

The risk here is that people, long, on the verge of overleverage, having just lost on the drop from $5.2 or $4.9 go even longer, and we see some volatility, resulting in another liquidity squeeze, accentuated by those who are long, and get stopped out. I'm guessing that most sane stops are just below $4.5 (to avoid getting stopped out on a momentary spike) and if we hit those, we have a long way south.

We didn't quite hit the same bottom we hit the other day, and we didn't sink below the magic mental stop of $4.50, which makes this seem less likely. I think people have a lot of balls to short wher we are today, without that confirmation of Price Action south of $4.50.

Once nice thing about week-apart up & down side liquidity squeezes is that some of those walls are broken down, and more fluid, and some people are sidelined. IMO, this could increase the intra-weekly trading range that we seem to be stuck in so much.

I can see it go down to 4.20 again before we continue the upwards movements.

Oh, and hello imitator  8)