Bitcoin Forum

I lurk these forums quite frequently, and I've been hanging out since 2011. We all saw this dip coming. This is that dip where people say, "Fuck it, I'm done! It's not going to the moon EVER!" Pirate has stolen all of our money! etc..

The past is no reliable predictor of the future, but it's all we've got, so let's come up with some expected values based on intuition.

Let's say there's a 25% chance these bubbles will repeat themselves and over the next year we'll reach >$4000 level.
Let's say there's a 50% chance we'll stagnate at an average of $500 over the next year
Let's say there's a 25% chance we'll go to $0 over the next year.

0 * .25 + 0.5 * 500 + 0.25 * 4000 = $1250 expected value over the next year, for me at least.

So keep on selling and I'll keep on buying!

I think that's a rational and simple way to look at it, but in my own estimations, the chances for success are much higher.

This price down-turn is necessary, which is why, as a holder, I find myself smiling this morning. I don't think it's over either. Hold on to your asses! Once we get this out of the way, the chains are off. No more excessive leveraged positions holding us in place, and a lot of people acting irrationally, while the biggest bulls just lost their positions and watch the train leave the station. Panic.

You guys asked for wall street to get in on bitcoin, I don't think you knew what you were wishing for. They are here, right now, they are about to shake you down for all your coins, because the window of opportunity is closing. Lock those coins up folks. Put your straight jacket on if you need to.

waking up to opportunity  ;D

This is Awesome!  (hoping it dips further downward)

Agreed 100%.
Wall street is selling and buying back their own coins to depress price by  taking advantage of delusion sentiment about the missed bubble. Also August is perfect for the above manipulation because there's statistically less people trading on exchanges, this means that said manipulation is also cheaper to achieve.

Looking at the charts of the past years seems that we are near the end of the stagnation period,
your calculations are made "for fun" but I think you centered the point, the train will leave the station after the weak hands will be out of the game.

What do you think is special about August that makes people be less active on exchanges?   I have read some people attributing that to it being the Summer months, and people are doing other things than sitting in front of a computer.   But when you think about it though...it is always Summer somewhere in the world...

Agree, I work the entire year and only go out for a month and besides that, bitcoin is global, with more activity in the North of the globe, but it is global;

August people don't have start of year bonus and stuff, and already are in debt, so less prone to put money in especulative assets.


That is my guess.

August it is the month when most people go on vacation.

Well I mean, it defiantly isn't always summer in some part of the world. There's only two seasonal hemispheres. When it's spring/fall, it's summer no where on earth.

This is the logic I've been using to justify buying in. If Bitcoin becomes worthless I'll lose far less than I could potentially win.

Here's my expected value assumption, still trying to be conservative:

10% chance of $0.
15% chance of $250-400 (avg $325)
25% chance of $400-700 (avg $550)
25% chance of $700-2000 (avg $1350)
25% chance of $2000-5000 (avg $3500) or higher.

0 * .10 + .15*325 + .25*550 + .25*1350 + .25*3500 = Expected value $1,398.75.
Current price = $535
Discount = $863.75 or 62%.

Mind you, i'm answering a question about a guess i made, therefore i must stay in "guess space" :)
In my probably wrong opinion bitcoin exchange market has been statistically mapped by "big players"  since 2011 by analyzing (and correlating) factors like timestamps of market events and relative intensity, geolocalization of such events where possible and also obfuscation of emerged patterns by deliberate production of statiscal noise to make analysis harder to smaller analysts.
It *could* be that the northern hemisphere, and in more details big cities in europe/usa/asia, emerged in said analysys like big players in bitcoin market. If that chain of dumb guesses made any sense, August is the right month to achieve a cheap manipulation.

In other words you created this sock puppet back in the days.

The first two are reasonable positions to take IMHO, but I don't buy the third one.  I no longer consider there's any plausible scenario where BTC goes to zero, let alone one with 25% probability.

Of course, if that's just a euphamism for BTC going down a lot - say to double figures - then sure, that's possible.  Although personally I think the probability of BTC hitting double figures for any length of time (anything more than an intra-day low) is much, much lower than 25%

roy

This expected value assumption looks better that the one from the thread started,
but 10% chance on the death of bitcoin is way too high in my opinion :)

Bro, you have lost touch with reality. How do you jump from a 50% chance of stagnation to a 25% chance of greater than $4,000. Let me correct these numbers for you (and they aren't terrible... but just in the realm of reality).

5% chance of $1,000 to $1,500 at the end of the year
30% chance of $700 to $900 at the end of the year
15% chance of $600 to $700 at the end of the year
15% chance of $500 to $600 at the end of the year
15% chance of $400 to $500 at the end of the year
15% chance of $300 to $400 at the end of the year
5% chance of below $300 at the end of the year

You can shift any of these numbers give or take 5 to 10%, but that's it. There's money to be had... not fortunes.

This is a little closer to reality, but still way, way too extreme. Remember that the bubbles are getting progressively smaller and this is an entirely different market than in the Gox days... more professionals, less irrational exuberance, a lot of leverage to unwind, and more post-Gox suspicion.

I am not saying it won't end up higher... in fact, fairly higher, than it is today. I'd say a truer strike price at the end of the year is in the $550 to $800 range. We are oversold, but really only slightly so.

This is not even a dip.. a dip would be if we reach below 400 for a long period of time.. from 600 to 530.. well is not too much.

Do you mean from 670... if you broaden the lens a bit... to 530... yea, that's only 20% of market cap wiped out. No big deal at all.

Also, people can stomach that... but a few of the leveraged longs are getting perilously close to the breaking point. That's the reason for the panic.

Going to position myself to catch coin at 350-400.

Correction will go steeper than most traders expect.

It may even go below this on a cascade (remember all of the leverage). There isn't much of a difference in the order books from 400 to 200. Things will normalize... but not yet. There will be blood.

Sure, but most of the major population centers in the southern hemisphere are not in 1st world countries, ie, less of their people are sitting around working at computers anyway.

Finally, I don't want to be too geeky here but you're absolutely wrong that it's always summer somewhere.  In, fact, it's only summer somewhere from 21 June -- 21 September and from 21 December -- 21 February.  During the other months, it's either autumn or spring somewhere and summer nowhere.

I agree but I'm trying to be conservative with my estimates. If it's truly a good investment it should look good even when you approach with caution. Luckily for us, it does.

Wishful thinking that this is a bear trap.

Who know how low the price will go before rebounding?

I'm going to call ~$520 before the rebound

There is this, though, in terms of the hemispheres and wealth disparity: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North%E2%80%93South_divide

Edit: tspacepilot essentially beat me to it.

Sadly I think we're done with bitcoin for this year. Expecting 450s or lower. And yes, no bubble.

agree

I'd suspect some decent prices in the coming months before the end of the year.  Just people using this as an opportunity to buy low IMO.

Keeping on guessing it looks to me that once market milking is done it make sense to reach september, where statistical market pressure gains normality and above, with exchanges price more aligned to hypotetical nominal values. Well over 700 near the end of August is my guess, with strong acceleration just the last days.
I also think the above manipulation will lead to a bubble whose apex, where most of traders will sell hoping to buy back lower, will coincide to another big one (etf maybe) which will haircut a lot of gamblers.

Think of all those poor people who finally give up at the very last second and sell right before the next growth spurt. I know they don't really deserve the rise if they give up and sell and weak hands need to go, but it's those people I feel for the most. Not the people that sell at the first slight drop.

Final correction to weed out the weak hand before we rally to the moon.

That may be so. But how much further down do we go? Is this the bottom before we finally go back up, or do we slide a little bit more in a flash crash to 450?

It will be fun to see how this all plays out.

You will easily get them. If you will be patient even lower then that.

For now.. if it hits sub $400 I think we'll see mass buying.

if you think that early adopters will let their bitcoin worth less than a penny you are wrong, it will rise for sure at the end, and i don't think they will just dump and forget, like they do with any alt, might be some sort of a trap/or just vacation , RL stuff

If it hit 400, I think it will set another cascading sell off.

The final ..... COUNTDOWN: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9jK-NcRmVcw

It surely is one hell of a bear trap, if it really is one! People being careful at this point aren't necessarily stupid at this point. At least if they're not cashing out all if their stash.
But I agree that we've seen this before and there's no specific reason why it should be different this time!

I have a feeling we will have a couple days sub $400... then won't have time to buy back in anywhere close to $400 when the coins all move to strong hands.  It will be a line no one has seen or even fathomed.

If I had spare FIAT this is the price range I would be thinking about to get some coins. Unfortunately I have to pay the bills.

Sell your existing bitcoin holding and buy back at cheaper price. The pull back still have way to go.

This is terrible advice. Never sell an asset that has been rising exponentially and you expect to continue to do that for quite some time in the future. You never know whether the market will allow you another possibility to buy in for less later, it might be above the trend-line for a long time and with an exponential rise it doesn't have to be so long before the trend-line catches up with you.

It's a terrible meme but: don't miss the train.