Bitcoin Forum

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I won't.  Let's say worse case scenario it drops to $470 (another $30).  You'd be out, what, $180 total on your investment?  BFD.

And if it rallies you're in the black.

I don't think its stupid. I am sending some funds tonight and I hope I'm not to late.

Why You think is was stupid ?

You have 10 minutes left to sell and break even. GO!

Worst case scenario is it drops to $0, but hey  :P

buying on dips has always been a good strategy

just bought 2 more @ $505.

i'll buy 2 more at $470 if it goes there

Why not buy them on BitFinex for a discount?  They hit 451 over there during the mini-crash.  No need to even use leverage and then transfer them back to Stamp or wherever you prefer.

not lil wayne...PLEASE...

kayne west, pitbull, so retarded, that it's the best

http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/pitbull/feelthismoment.html

just sold 2BTC for $505. Oh wait, I could start my own thread to let the world know...

You think I sold them all at $1000?

Well played, Devin Chow. I would buy more but I'm sadly fiat-strapped and down to 6.25 BTC to my name.

Where you got the money?

Sold 15 BTC at $535 (bought at $620). Investing in BTC since 2014 has cost me several thousand. Fortunately for the profits I had from (late) 2013, overall I am in not so bad a state for becoming a Bitcoin investor. But that is me out for good. I am both bored out my mind staring at charts trying to make sense of them, all the little 'fundamentals' dramas, and routinely failing to listen to my own better instincts. With the money I lost, I could have went out and replaced my car, taken me and my girlfriend on a 5 star tropical island holiday, etc etc......fuck this shit.....even if it goes rebounding back up, I would most likely at that time be on the wrong end of a max leveraged short position, or if it keeps plummeting and plummeting, I would most likely keep going long. I have proven to myself that in anything but a clean bull market where any fool can make money, that I will just routinely slit my own throat and the same goes for the majority of folks out there. This is a sharks game and if u aint no shark then you are shark food.

I have moved my (remaining) funds off Bitstamp, leaving just a few hundred for my next Silk Road purchases.

Bitcoin has both impoverished and bored me to death and it is just not worth the mental effort.....but hey, that is bear markets for you.....nobody knows for sure that it is over until it is really over....of course, the rapid recovery spikes and the gradual down-trending followed by spikes down, should really have given the game away. We are still very much in a primary bear trend. If we weren't, then we wouldn't have dipped below $550, never mind $500.

I thought you went to lunch. hmm.

Sorry to hear it.
Why didn't you just keep those 15 BTC and stash them for a rainy day in the future?

If you KNOW you're not a good trader, then the smart thing to do would just be hold for the long run if you understand
the fundamentals.   (Not sure if you do though).

Here's the thing with "trying to make sense of it all" with chart reading:  trading is a game
of small edges.  You will never make complete sense of it.  The market does whatever
it wants and at any given moment can be affected by the decisions of 1 person.  This
is more true for Bitcoin than for bigger markets.    And trading profitably, consistently,
is extremely hard (and boring as you mentioned).... I don't even try any more.  It's
not worth my energy.  I'd rather be doing something productive or creative.   But
I do understand the fundamentals of Bitcoin and that's why i'm holding.

I'm getting funds together from a week now to buy 2 bitcoin and in this period the btc price came down a lot.
Last night i was about to buy some but stupid me i didn't though it's gona drop more to 480 or so, lesson learned.

hang in there brother.
try not to sell those last coins.

I guess we simply will never understand you, Mat.  If you don't think BTC will hit $620 again in the next few months, or even by the end of the year, then you are extremely shortsighted.  If you didn't want to stay involved in Bitcoin, you could have just held for a few months longer and at least broke even, instead of losing $1400.

But then again, you were the one screaming that a $200 bottom was inevitable, so...

Ok you're officially the man for that one. I am jacks overwhelming sense of jealousy. My fiat isn't available until tomorrow  >:(

Seriously, been here all this time and you still haven't learned to hold? God help you mat.

Lets get back after an year ;) good job IMO!

Well this might just be the last biggest opportunity to buy cheap BTC  ;D

We so gonna kick our own ass, in a year from now, if we did not buy a few, when it was low.

When it was early days, most of us had the excuse, that we did not know about it. But now things have changed. It has shown that it can climb to $1000 and we still second guessing ourselves.

There are simply no change, that it would not go up again soon. {So hang in there and buy} ;D

people be bitchin and moanin that they couldnt buy cheap coins...then when the price dips,
they are too scared to pull the trigger.

Precisely... We all say we support BTC and they only way for it to reach those levels again, is for all of us to buy more now.

When everyone bought up the slack coins lying on exchanges, we would see a dramatic rise in the BTC price, and you would be doubling your money.  ;D

But yes.... Most are on the side line watching.

You aren't. This is the logic I've been using to justify buying in. If Bitcoin becomes worthless I'll lose far less than I could potentially win.

Here's my conservative expected value assumption:

10% chance of $0.
15% chance of $250-400 (avg $325)
25% chance of $400-700 (avg $550)
25% chance of $700-2000 (avg $1350)
25% chance of $2000-5000 (avg $3500) or higher.

0 * .10 + .15*325 + .25*550 + .25*1350 + .25*3500 = Expected value $1,398.75.
Current price = $535
Discount = $863.75 or 62%.

now don't go in panic mode, hold long term

Yikes, the bitcoin price is getting closer to $500. I made a prediction in another thread that the bitcoin price will not go much below $500 and not much above $5,000. If the price drops to $400 I will consider my prediction to have failed. >:(

It hit close to 450 earlier and rebound.

Have to be brave to get in at 500.

No way, nice pick up.  There seems to be a lot of buying support around 500.  You should be smiling!

Good logic, but completely arbritrary numbers ;)

I 'll call you stupid only if you panic-sell at $400.

They are arbitrary, but it's all about being honest about my expectations. Do I think there's more than a 10% chance of Bitcoin failing within a year or so? No. Do I think there's more than a 25% chance of prices being below $400 long term? No. So if you assess what you really believe and try to choose some conservative numbers based on that, it can help guide your decisions. For example, as of right now, if the price suddenly rocketed above $863 without much actually changing, I might want to consider buying less or even selling. But seeing prices so low compared to my expected value makes me think I'm justified in buying in.

I'm not calling anyone stupid. But what if it doesn't stop at $470? What if we decline significantly below, and stabilize far below? How is $470 the worst case scenario?

It's stupid. But you might win the bet. $525 is the resistance point we need to clear before we are out of trouble. Until then, we are to prone to cascades (watch $495 on Bitfinex). I am definitely not making the mistake of trying to guess the bottom, again. Waiting for technical confirmation even if that cuts into the earnings a bit.

Also, keep in mind, Ethereum dumped 1300 BTCs on the 10th and the 12th... this being the 14th/15th we are due for another dump from them. Also, retailers tend to sell on Friday at the close of the week. The countervailing force against that is that the price is cheap compared to a week ago and tomorrow is also payday.

In short, we are in 50/50 land still. If you wait for technical confirmation, you make $23/coin less... but we know that is a pittance compared to the eventual rally. It is for those reasons that I say... stupid. And also I just don't like you because you are a racist a--hole.

Nope

I will say congrats on your purchase and any point above this price is gravy any point below
HODL for a while I guess as their is a reasonable chance that your near the price low if not at it.
Where it will stabilize after may not be too high above that in the short term but if it goes back to the old price that's not a bad difference.

I'm also buying more bitcoins as the value go down, and I won't sell them ever, I will just use my btc in the future without converting into useless FIAT.

Operation dumbo drop... where were we yesterday when the cascade began? $525... where did we destabilize? $495. We have to cross one of those lines and then either big pump or big dump. Next resistance point after that is $473. Is this too complicated for you? Obviously you don't understand fib lines or why the dump yesterday stopped where it did.

It is like you enjoy losing money or something. Why in God's green earth would anybody take any advice from somebody who so obviously doesn't understand trading or mathematics.

P.S. -- A lot of technical analysis is hogwash, but during big price fluctuations it is utterly critical because this is what the bots are operating off of.

There's some great news coming, look at the bitcoin discussion forum: "EBay Payments Unit in Talks to Accept Bitcoin".

That's absurd. S/R is just where traders got in/out of position. So when the price trends, pivots and moving averages tend to act as support/resistance since this is where traders out of position need to buy/sell to break even.

If the price topped ~680s, you think there's no one waiting to get out at that level? After bagholding? THAT is called "resistance."

And is usually calculated within a couple dollars by bots. That why you use the S/R points. You wouldn't bother if everyone was trading by hand... but they aren't.

Nice, I missed this news.
If it will be confirmed maybe it can stop the downtrend, or at least limit it a little.

Yeah is is basis in daily trading.. if you are buying in the middle of a rally and then the price stagnates in some level when there are many sell orders and after a period of time it can pass that zone, that would be the resistance and the price will go backwards for if it cant go broken.

The news might slow the downtrend but not completely negate the fundamental weakness from TA.

Markets do somewhat have resistance and support levels however trade in bitcoin is generally too new to truly have these kinds of levels and the numbers that are quoted on these forums are generally pulled out of thin air and do not have any real data behind them.

the quality of the data and backtesting would depend on the time frame you are looking at. even on a daily chart, i think 3-4 years of data would be enough to establish reliable support and resistance levels. certainly on lower time frames.

do you have any statistical basis for this?

Since Satoshi said that bitcoin is all-or-nothing, I have purchase order every $30 apart all the way down to zero, this is an old trick from foreign currency trading, in this way I don't bother where the price is going, just buy when it drops until I get the best fill, and sell a bit when it rise back to get more reserve fiat for the next dive

Because the technical shift to ASIC is almost finished, I don't see big price change in coming months, maybe until the next reward halving

still to premature to smile, i hope he is in for the long run, and waiting the fatidical "$1k" to sell

everyone should listen to me, do not buy bitcoin! bitcoin is going to nowhere but down!

sell and cut loose now! those who ask you to buy "cheap" coins since $1200 are ponzi scheme scammers

Going to buy in for a couple of thousands the coming days as soon as my bank's ready  :D

what if you want to buy cheap? you are a big investor in disguise or something, and waiting for the right price to clear the sells wall

I can't believe there's so much fud for only a 100$ fall  ::)

100$ drop is a lot and it only take few days, who know if it would continue to drop from that point.

Well, I ended up buying in at $498 on BTC-e sending them over to Bitfinex and levering up from there once we cleared 505 (22 BTCs). Simply wasn't ballsy enough to try it in the middle of a rout. Feeling pretty ok, now, though. We at least have a solid approximation of a bottom so time to make some money.

there will be a point where investors will start buy like crazies again, just a mental thing i guess, i think we are near that point

Yep... people are literally sleeping on this rally. When they wake up... boy oh boy!!!

You can sell it and enjoy profit :D

Yep looks like it went up a bit more to 520 when I checked blockchains price
Still for that gain would say to hold instead but profit is profit for the OP ^_^
http://markets.blockchain.info/

$495,99 now.
It was to early to buy back then.

no such thing as perfect entry/exit.

I have a strong feeling it will be rising sooner or later to over $550. Just hold on and wish for the best. You aren't stupid at all, just unlucky.

Just bought 4.04981270 more at 493.85 this afternoon, went straight to 485 but now rebounding.   ;D

unlucky prices at $480 on an average ;(

The volatility is very high today.

Does anyone else find this thread so fucking moronic it's untrue?