Bitcoin Forum

every seller has a buyer. When comparing dollar volume May 1-15 to Aug 1-15     $470 Million vs $910 Million..who bought the $440 Million difference and why? Yes .trading more volume is the reason but who is ending up with these coins from the sellers who do not re-buy?

http://www.quandl.com/BCHAIN/ETRVU-Bitcoin-Estimated-Transaction-Volume-USD

(click ..show data table at bottom)



2014-08-15       70,769,052
2014-08-14       71,895,364
2014-08-13       68,379,694
2014-08-12       61,158,740
2014-08-11       43,216,125
2014-08-10       32,787,195
2014-08-09       54,302,397
2014-08-08       45,449,194
2014-08-07       59,188,716
2014-08-06       67,991,855
2014-08-05       79,118,450
2014-08-04       62,191,353
2014-08-03       29,031,951
2014-08-02       43,348,752
2014-08-01       100,060,676






May 15   46,127,940
May 14   48,513,550
May13    36,980,698
May12    30,389,352
May11    21,490,294
May10    26,280,241
May9     36,496,136
May8     35,810,226
May7     48,283,519
May6     31,858,652
May5     27,165,713
May4     22,701,368
May3     30,993,631
May2     30,977,946
May1     34,892,425

The selling is driving the decline though, not the buyer matching the transactions.

The sell order has to come first (in this case) otherwise the price would be rising. That said, since the seller is initiating the transaction the buyer could be the exchanges, companies like Coinbase, other intermediaries, or folks trying to establish hedge fund style investments in Bitcoin (i.e., the Winklevoss boys or other Silicon Valley partners).

Other thoughts?

Are we double bottoming?


http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/447619-double-bottoms-shake-out-weak-holders.htm


http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/480192-double-bottom-shakes-out-weak-holders.htm

That is interesting. Didn't know someone was buying this much. They are either seeing something we are not or are hoping it will come up soon again, either way I think it is a good thing.

This is a fantastic time to be buying BTC - the price will certainly be going much higher than it is now, you just have to have the patience to "be right and sit tight" as they say  :)

Great observation. I honestly don't think what makes the buyer to buy a ton of bitcoins. I'm a newbie in terms of speculating so I don't know the main reasons why a buyer would be interested in investing so much into bitcoin knowing that the price of the bitcoin itself is very volatile and may reach ath or crash down. Either way, it's still a great deal knowing that somebody out there supports the idea of bitcoin, whatever his/her reasons may be.

For every buyer, there is a seller. So saying there is a lot of buying doesn't really mean much since there is a somewhat equal side of seller.

Very good observation.
It looks we have some ''big'' investors here, people who expect that price of Bitcoin will go soon up and now investing a lot.
But, such investing is always risky in my opinion because Bitcoin price is not stable yet, going up and down all the time.

and he want to buy at this price, maybe he is the the one who dumped hoping for a better bottom, but then he changed his mind

I guess some exchanges are suspicious to these dumps. They earn huge money (fees) when the the price fluctuates. At the same time, they can earn more by manipulating the market.

What matters is the volume relative to price movement.  The reason the OP's observation is a good one is that a comparison is being made between the volume when price rose in May vs. the recent volume during which the price has retraced most of that rally.  If everything were perfectly the same and balanced, then the volume on the decline should equal the volume on the rally.  So looking at the difference can give you some insight on general sentiment.  The fact that recent volume has been much larger suggests that more people are willing to buy.  If there weren't, then the price would have dropped a lot more than it has.  This bodes well for price once the selling subsides.

This, of course, is just looking at the technicals.  Fundamentals can step in and trump those at any time.

Nothing but good news, still a selling spree....

Are those sellers retarded or what?

Most of the sellers rebuy cheaper.

Volume always increases when volatility increases. When prices are stable people tend to sit on their positions, but when there is a crash or rally people tend to jump in or out. Every seller has to find a buyer, so these numbers just reflect more sellers. The way you tell that the sellers are driving the sales in this case is by looking at the price... the price is crashing because sellers are being forced to lower their prices to attract buyers.

whales are getting prepared for the winter
they are taking the last low cost train

Kind of dangerous trying to catch a falling knife. Easier to buy when the trend is confirmed.

I think you guys are willing to believe any sentence as fact as long as it supports your belief that the price of BTC going to the moon.

Why does the difference in trading volume from May vs. Aug matter? And if it does matter how does it indicate there is a small group of large buyers?

Trading volume can't tell you (in any way from the data you've presented) who initiated the transaction - groups of people saying "I gotta sell these bitcoins!" or groups of people saying "I gotta buy me some bitcoins!". The only way we know that there are more sellers than buyers (or vice versa) is the movement of the price.

As for how the trading volume increased from May to Aug, it could be genuine increases in use (like among new users) or it could be that more people are worried about the future of Bitcoin (so they're selling and there are people picking up those coins at lower and lower prices), or it could be that Bitcoin holders are buying goods from retailers and retailers are cashing out...it's probably a combination of these things.

The one fact about trading that you should all keep in mind when thinking about how the market is moving is that: The price dictates who started the trade/transaction, if the price is going down there are more sellers than buyers and if the price is going up there are more buyers than sellers.

The time periods you mention are both periods where the price went down, no?

Let me know if I'm missing something.

Actually, wait a minute.  I wasn't paying enough attention to the date ranges.  What I said would have been true if May 16-31 were compared with Aug 1-15.  But May 1-15 the price hardly moved--it hung out right around 450.

If Govt has a lot of BTC, they can cause volatility and keep people out.

Volatility will keep another group of people in. Speculator and trader.

Don't forget it is August so a lot of people around the world are on vacation. Like the Wall St saying goes, "Sell in May and go away".

Wait until fall.... by the end of the year the Bitcoin price is going to be much higher!

The thing with bitcoin is you can't artificially make more of it. So if you try to manipulate it, you will eventually run out of bitcoin.

Speculators and traders... not sure if that is good for the btc economy.

One of the requirement for currency is stability. Speculators and traders will cause volatility, which is not good for btc economy.

with stocks the saying is that the bigboys, aka market makers can cause temporary spikes and dips in price. I think that's whats going on here. I haven't look at overall buy/sell orders but my feeling is that the market makers flooded the market with sell orders to drive down the price to levels they could "stock up" on bitcoins. You have enough capital and you can pretty much control the price of any coin in the short term.

Someone sold a lot on btc-e all the way down to 310. Suggest people to hold off buying for at least a few weeks.

Ever thought they are the same person... willing to risk dumping half their coins to tank the market to increase their holdings of coins massively then pump.. pump pump it up.

The btc-e market recovered pretty quickly. Price is now almost in line with other exchanges.

Been saying this for months. Whale has 10000 btc, dumps 5000 btc, causes 20% panic slide as bots and day traders follow, buys 6000 btc with the same amount of money, from panicking sellers. During this sort of unsure market there's a lot of stop loss orders out there waiting to be triggered. Stop hunting causing drops which squeeze leveraged traders into more drops. I'm still sitting here with my bitcoins I got for free after my initial investment was recovered, like fuckit yolo! If it goes back to 1000 that's cool. If it goes past 5k after then next reward halving that's even cooler. If it goes to zero I still made a bunch of money on bitcoin so who cares? Not me lol

panic selling at his finest, doing this is beyond me, he just lose money

I guess the ones that sold at 650 USD are buying now.

I wish I'd gotten in on that $310 action, wouldve turned right back around and sold for 480

I have buy order of 350 on bitstamp, too bad the price didn't go that low there.

The objective inteligent thing to do was to buy a shit ton of cheap BTC if you are FIAT rich.

Yep it sadly looks that ATM we are. But we will probably head up soon. I hope so.

I know for a fact that if I was a FIAT whale, this would be an exceptionally good time to enter the BTC game before it sky rockets again.