Bitcoin Forum

I am a trader with a technical analysis background and in recent months got involved in crypto. I am going to use this thread to discuss and share my crypto trading activities using the following starting point:

Trading Float: $5,000
Trading Approach: Short term (hours / days max)
Exchange: CEX.IO
Products to Trade: BTC/US$, BTC/GHS, Other Crypto Pairs as required

I have an account at CEX and did well enough buying their Futures product FHM which I described here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=730666.msg8263659#msg8263659 I am using that pot of money in this exercise.

My aim is to share the trades I intend to take, reasons for taking a trade, entry points and exit points either for profit or loss. I'll track the trade outcomes and post all the details in this thread. This won't be a 'I took a trade yesterday and made $1K' anyone can do that, it will be more like 'If the BTC/$ price hits X I will buy with a profit target of Y and a stop loss of Z.' with the reasoning behind it. I'll also share methods I am using and if anyone wants to ask questions or tell me I am dumb etc  ;) then all comments welcomed.

Why am I doing this? Well I am trading anyway and I always find sharing and documenting this sort of activity is great for learning, discipline and a bit of enjoyment. Trading can be a lonely game, so this sort of interaction is also good for motivation.

Price is at 490, is it time to buy, sell or hold?

Cool beans.  I might recommend making this a self moderated topic or it'll likely go off the rails from the ridiculous amount of trolls that inhabit these parts.

I look forward to what I hope will be some quality TA, as this forum is lacking. "Ryan's log" thread has high quality EW analysis on it, but I'm not very knowledgable or interested in that approach. What indicators/ signals are you working with?


I second this suggestion.

For me right now time to watch only. Also depends on what you are trying to do. In this thread it is a short term trading activity, the answer would be different if you had long term goal or in fact if you had no goal!!

No, it is likely to go lower.  Doesn't look like a hold at all.

Good luck with your investments.
I will follow your advice because I'm new in trading but I want to play the market with few coins.

price at $480 now :(

There is a definable descending channel on BTC/USD$ now since the fall off $590 area from Aug 12th. I have posted my reading of the channel in an hourly chart showing trade-able opportunity to exploit the potential trading range within the channel. It's not a high probability trade, but at the same time it is relative low risk as a logical stop loss would take you out if the consolidation below $450 fails signalling back to the lower channel area.

Not taking this trade yet (just presenting an idea), still watching the price action.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTC%20Hour19thAugwithtradeidea.png

First, welcome to the forum! Edit: I guess you've been here for a few months :P

That would be a high risk:reward ratio, no? Similar to entering a trade in the middle of the BB where price is equidistant from top and bottom. It could really go either way!
Now, if you open at the lower and sell at the upper with a stop just below the lower trend line, this would seem like better R:R ratio to me :/

Carry on!
I'm interested to see how this all comes along :)

Yep agreed, better outcome possible trading nearer the defined channel edges / bands. This is why I am just showing it as an idea. as I said it can be low $ risk due to the nearness of the logical exit, plus that $450 area is acting as decent support for the moment. Thanks for the comments, I see you are very comprehensive and active in your analysis I will check it out.

Updating the channel trade idea with close stop. I have updated the chart as if I were trading it. As stated this trade I didn't take but updating outcome for all to see. As per chart I would move stop up to break-even point and let the trade progress some more, essentially I would now have a free trade (risk covered). This approach would enable me to take a new position if I wanted without increasing my risk of loss more than the new risk + the possible loss of profit in the first trade. The alternate approach is close out trade at the target area with about 5% profit (Entry $465, Exit $485 ish).

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUS%2419thAugTradeExit.png

Is it me or is it foolish to go long in a downtrend like this ???

You are lucky you hit what looks like a W formation (trend change).

Btw I'm also a newbie trader :)

Not foolish if you trade with a defined plan and strategy. That includes analysis, reason and justification for entry and exit (loss or profit). Correct risk management relative to your tolerance and portfolio size, then it is trading.

All trades are risky, you use the tools at your disposal to mitigate the risk and manage your actions.

There was no luck involved, I outlined the trade plan in detail. If it had been a loser the loss would have been controlled and just part of the business of trading.

Good luck with your trades and thanks for the comments.

Great description of how to trade with a disciplined professional way, breath of fresh air compared to the majority of comments in this speculation forum. Keep it up.

Thanks  ;)

This channel trade has now reached the channel top, so if I were actively trading it the lowest risk option would be to close out the trade and take the profit, alternate approach would be to move stop loss up a bit and trail the price a couple of candles back (below is a 4 hour chart) in case of breakout.
Interesting to see what develops here, if price moves out of the drawn channel then the channel pattern is busted and we start all over again. Breaking $500 area resistance will require some buying volume to come in.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTC%2420AugChannelTop.PNG

Channels are a powerful trading ally.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTC%2420AugChannel%20Reverse.PNG

Position Sizing and knowing your risk

Interested to hear how traders work out their trade risk when trading? Do you just buy in and worry later when you see your account turn a bit red? Or do you use tools to help?

For me I use a simple spreadsheet that I enter my trade plan into (Qty to buy, price, stop loss, profit target) then I get an immediate picture of the trade and its possible outcomes. I can then tweak the trade parameters until I am comfortable with the risk. I also use it during a trade to adjust and monitor so that anytime I know what my risk is if the trade goes against me or for me.

Screenshot of the sheet below with some notes as to what it shows.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/Risk%26PositionCalc.png

Updating the next possible phase of BTC/USD$ price movement and watching for tradeable set-ups.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD21AugDeadChannel.PNG

Nothing definitive in current price action other than $530 area being the ceiling and $490 area being floor. Sideways channel between these points is emerging. Buying in the low $500's / high $490's is a relatively safe proposition based on current price action.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD%2425AugWatch.PNG

Buying 5 BTC:

Average price of $510.
Stop is $494.
Target around $550 to be adjusted.
Risk $80


https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD26AugBuy.PNG

BTC/USD$ Trade Update:

Price pushed on so confirmed reason for entry. This 1 hour chart shows the trading situation. The ascending support line guides the direction. I will trail my stop behind the price action / ascending support. It now sits at $499. If price can break $516 then it should move on next to $530 resistance area. Will update as trade progresses.

Edit: Adjusted stop below ascending support to $504

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD27AugTradeUpdate.png

Very interesting thread, definitely following this! Nice with some honesty for a change.
So I have been following crypto for a while, but is new to technical trading, so please forgive me for newbie questions.

So how do you decide the stop level? I saw in your excel sheet that you put the stop level 3 % under current value. Do you calculate that percentage in relation to market volatility or something? I guess I have the same question for the exit region.

Also, do the fact that the 515 level seems to have some resistance alter your current strategy?

Do you have any recommendations for good resources that I could study to better understand the basics of your decisions?  I'm new to all this, seems very interesting.

This is a very interesting approach! I think a lot of people should just go and try their strategies on (public?) virtual portfolios, so that people can see whose strategy (or wild guessing) is best! Is there a site to do this?

draws the lines using previous tops and bottoms, its not that hard really.  the way i learnt it was just by watching these types of threads, for a while, eventually you get it.

he puts his stop were the triangle he draws is invalidated.

awesome thread, i'll be watching.

Thanks apachebalou, sorry for delayed answer, have been laid low with flu. Regarding you questions. The stop level is NOT an arbitrary % below the price action, it is placed behind any obvious points of support that if broken would indicate further lower prices would occur. For this trade there was an ascending support line + rising moving averages + recent price bounce all above my stop. The idea being to keep the stop away from normal price volatility but close enough to protect when price stops moving the way you hope it will. The idea for this trade was that the price would breakout, consolidate below $530 level then continue through that point, however that didn't occur and the breakout failed and the support points above my stop failed. I exited the trade at the area of my stop $504. As I knew $530 was resistance I could have taken profit at that point, but if it had continued to breakout above there and I took profit then I would have a small profit and missed the move I was trying to trade. As it is I was out with a small loss $510 entry $504 exit.


I am using technical analysis, support/resistance, patterns, averages and strict money management. There is a lot of online resource I haven't really any to recommend above another as there is so much and to a certain extent it is a personal interpretation that you fit to suit your own approaches. If I were you i would google and read up on topics you find interesting and see what starts to appeal to you.


There is a lot of such sites in the FX World where traders post their ideas and people follow them either actually taking the same trades or just to learn.

Essentially correct, thanks for watching.

As noted in an earlier thread the previous open trade closed out at the indicated stop of $504 with a very small loss $510 - $504.

Just putting up a new chart view (4 hours) showing the current momentum and possible direction. Currently there is no indication of upward price movement of any note (except for small gyrations that are not worth the risk of trading) So currently just watching.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD8SeptUpdate.PNG

OK, make sense, thanks!

I haven't posted since this chart from Sept 8th. The comments on that chart are exactly where BTC is now. There is nothing indicating anything other than more downwards pressure. The price area of low to mid $400s has been an area where rally's have sparked over the past few months, so a good reason to watch very closely now. I will provide a chart update shortly.

Given your past predictions I am inclined to buy as much as I possibly can right now.

It could be a good place to consider buying ($400 ish) but then problem will be very high volatility here and therefore no logical points for using protective stops if the price keeps  its downward bias. Putting a low ball buy price in and hoping it gets filled on a spike down is also worth looking at.
I am not buying yet, waiting for reversal signal rather than trying to catch a knife. Again will update more fully soon.

Good luck

Ok now time to seriously look at buying BTC following the price spike on the back of the PayPal Bitcoin news. A bottom of $378 has been put in with a spike top of $450 area. That now gives a good price bracket to operate within.
What I am watching for now is buying continuation following the news based spike, currently it is drifting downwards back towards low $400 zone, it needs to consolidate here rather than give back all the gains, otherwise no tradeable pattern will emerge.

Also good news from CEX that they are out of Beta on fiat markets, plus adding more fiat and crypto trading pairs. This will give a good liquidity shot as more traders go to the exchange.

http://www.coindesk.com/cex-io-us-dollar-deposits-trading-pairs/

All that Paypal news inspired gain is given back. Most likely is further downside. Attached downwards channel is trade-able.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD2Oct.PNG

OK, I am buying into this potential $275 bottom rejection set up. The bottom was on high volume and the daily candle of the low is a nice rejection with a long tail, so the pattern looks promising for a recovery back up to descending resistance which is currently around $400.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSDBottomTest7Oct.PNG

I'm learning lots watching this.  Thanks heaps :)

Great, you are welcome. So far trade is shaping up nicely. I will edit this post with an update and new bit later.

Allowing the trade to play out at this resistance area, volume following the low has been good, will need decent volume again to breakthrough the $400 area. Have set a trailing stop below ascending price movement and just below past 5 days $350 support. Not setting an exact exit yet trying to let the trade develop into a trend. Lets see.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD13Oct.PNG

Trade comments in the chart.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD16Oct.PNG

Trade comments updated in chart, seems to be consolidating the recent gains nicely at the moment. Translation = boring low volume low volatility price action following recent bullish price move is a good thing. Trading should actually be boring, that way you make decisions based on your rules and analysis as opposed to your emotions and the noise of the crowd.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD21Oct.PNG

Closed the trade as detailed in the chart. No point hoping it might go up, reasons for being in the trade no longer there. Small profit, watching again for any new set-up to emerge.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD24Oct.PNG

Descending trend line which has been providing resistance to upwards price movement now pointing and providing pathway to where BTC price is headed??

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/54432554/BTCUSD30Oct.PNG

I am wondering what you are thinking now after so many weeks?  Is this a long term trend you are describing?

following