Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: fonzie on August 22, 2014, 06:14:42 PM



Title: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: fonzie on August 22, 2014, 06:14:42 PM
Anyone that wondered about the increased volume on BTCCHINA, the following is the reason.
https://vip.btcchina.com/page/fee

Trading Fee

    BTC/CNY: Free.
    LTC/CNY: Free.
    LTC/BTC: Free.
We can now probably estimate a lot better what the real trading volume on the chinese exchanges is.
It switched from ~3000-6000 to 30000-50000BTC

So their (Huobi,OKcoin) "real" trading volume is almost inflated ~10x.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: claimore on August 22, 2014, 06:30:01 PM
Whales trying to get as much cheap coins as possible  ::)


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Wilhelm on August 22, 2014, 11:05:19 PM
No trading fee doesn't mean it's free ::)
They probably manipulate the spread to receive income.....


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Dalmar on August 22, 2014, 11:09:18 PM
BTCChina had 0% commissions for many months, IIRC. This does not explain the sudden increase in volume.

Perhaps the shadow banking pumpers from November last year are back on BTCChina.. who knows.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: AceWallen on August 22, 2014, 11:32:11 PM
volume analysis aside (and i don't think 0% trading fees should necessarily negate price action by any means) -- the fact is that the western exchanges are clearly still following their Chinese overlords. watch wisdom side by side in tabs -- if you think the west is driving anything, you're doing it wrong. a wall on Stamp in either direction can slow down a move, but that's about it.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Dump3r on August 22, 2014, 11:45:13 PM
Stop posting CAPSLOCK topics, stupid troll!


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: ElectricMucus on August 22, 2014, 11:59:34 PM
So their (Huobi,OKcoin) "real" trading volume is almost inflated ~10x.

It would be interesting how do you guess. Why not a few magnitudes higher?


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Coinfan on August 24, 2014, 08:11:40 PM
In the end, it doesn't matter if the chinese leadership is justified or not. What matters is what traders do. If most of them follow China, you must follow China too.

But I do think that chinese exchanges have much more volume than western exchanges, even if it's hard to identify in what order free trade inflates volume.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: madken7777 on August 24, 2014, 08:27:33 PM
Anyone that wondered about the increased volume on BTCCHINA, the following is the reason.
https://vip.btcchina.com/page/fee

Trading Fee

    BTC/CNY: Free.
    LTC/CNY: Free.
    LTC/BTC: Free.
We can now probably estimate a lot better what the real trading volume on the chinese exchanges is.
It switched from ~3000-6000 to 30000-50000BTC

So their (Huobi,OKcoin) "real" trading volume is almost inflated ~10x.

The trading figure is probably true given it has 0 fee.

This is based on the estimate that I will trade 10 times as much on btc-e and bitstamp if they offer 0 fee.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: seventhgear on August 24, 2014, 08:27:50 PM
The huge volume could mean a thing; an incoming bitcoin bubble beginning due to the increased adoption.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Yololintian on August 24, 2014, 09:17:33 PM
I think btcchina is the only one that actually fakes volume. They removed fees so they could fake volume and make it seem like the exchange is more popular, to attract people, because their business is failing pretty hard. Just look at the volume distribution - it looks nearly uniform the entire day, even when china is asleep. Pretty ironic that its the only one to fake volume when it accused others of doing so, or at least Bobby Lee implied that, if I remember correctly.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: WillyBTC on August 24, 2014, 11:56:15 PM
I think btcchina is the only one that actually fakes volume. They removed fees so they could fake volume and make it seem like the exchange is more popular, to attract people, because their business is failing pretty hard. Just look at the volume distribution - it looks nearly uniform the entire day, even when china is asleep. Pretty ironic that its the only one to fake volume when it accused others of doing so, or at least Bobby Lee implied that, if I remember correctly.

Really? But their volume is so low. And they used to have huge volume before Huobi and Okcoin became relevant (and before adding fees). I watched all their volume move over to those exchanges. I doubt they would be faking to any large extent.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: mkc on August 25, 2014, 05:07:14 AM
Why they would fake vol, just make people think they are major exchange?


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Coinfan on August 25, 2014, 05:20:18 AM
Okcoin was caught in the past faking volume, that was news on all major sites on bitcoin.

I doubt they would do it again after that world embarrassment.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: WillyBTC on August 25, 2014, 07:10:42 AM
Okcoin was caught in the past faking volume, that was news on all major sites on bitcoin.

I doubt they would do it again after that world embarrassment.

Was it ever actually proven? IIRC, it was just someone making some allegations, but it did look sort of dicey I think. But I don't think there was ever anything very conclusive about. Traders on Okcoin seem to say that the lack of book liquidity gets filled in by their algorithmic trading system (apparently Chinese traders are heavily bot-oriented).


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Coinfan on August 25, 2014, 02:19:55 PM
After the denunciation, Okcoin volume dropped like a stone and no official denial was published:

http://www.coindesk.com/chinese-bitcoin-exchange-okcoin-accused-faking-trading-data/
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/chinese-bitcoin-exchange-accused-faking-trade-data-1430122


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: crocko on August 25, 2014, 04:46:18 PM
I always suspected this.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: Coinfan on August 25, 2014, 05:21:55 PM
These are old news, currently there is no evidence that the chinese exchanges fake their volume.


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: fonzie on August 25, 2014, 05:39:23 PM
http://i61.tinypic.com/2hmlnjo.jpg

Let´s keep it simple. BTCChina were the only chinese exchange that had NO fees for a few months, look at the the picture. A few weeks ago they decided to go back to no fees. Can anyone see a difference?
I´m not talking aobut "faking" volume, i´m taking about "real and relevant" volume, there´s a difference. BTCChina could be the volume market leader without having more than 1-2kBTC on their exchange, why would you follow such an exchange? Huobi and OKcoin always had no fees btw.

http://i60.tinypic.com/33zagxe.jpg


Title: Re: IF YOU`RE STILL FOLLOWING CHINA YOU´RE PROBABLY DOING IT WRONG!
Post by: zetaray on August 25, 2014, 06:13:38 PM
China is out of the bitcoin market as far as I am concerned. I do not think the exchange need to fake volume themselves, trading bots by users will do it for them. We should not expect any real momentum from them, bitcoin is now a wall street game.