Bitcoin Forum

I see people talking about the lack of interest from Joe Public and how that means the Joes of the world will not pump the price. This appears to be true. And This Is Actually Good News™.

It's never the average people who are at the forefront of innovation. The next bubble will be fueled by smart money. Frontrunners. The kind that frontruns other kind of Big Money. This is also why the price hasn't gone up already, they know how to accumulate without raising the price.

After that, the laggardly kind of Big Money will pump us further. And then eventually, with safer and easier ways to store coins available, Joe Average will start buying in - after a lengthy media hype campaign.

Patience. This is still very early days.

What? Can't you see the massive contradiction here? First, you're claiming that smart money will fuel the next bubble. Then you go on to claim that smart money are accumulating coins without raising the price?   ::)

As soon as it is profitable to do so, and not necessarily by using their own money. Eventually, as the supply outside exchanges dries up, something will have to give.

The next halving of the block reward - that is when supply will really dry up. I am holding my bitcoins till then. :)

So, what happened at the previous halving? Did BTC price suddenly go through the roof ...?  ::)

It was priced in long beforehand.

I can agree with this!
The average trader buys in the 5th wave, which happens to be right before (relatively speaking) the big crash where they lose their money. The next big hype bubble  (which is actually still in the same large bubble since 2011) will be the top of wave-III so this is absolutely not the average traders yet.

This has to do with Elliot Wave Theory, so if you want to hear no more, then just ignore it.
You have waves. Then you have subwaves the make up each larger degree wave. The 2011 bubble was wave-I (roman numeral 1). Then there were a couple of rally's through 2012-2013 which were subwaves of the larger degree wave-III. The next higher high (above 1163 Bitstamp) will be the 5th wave completing that larger wave-III. We will then have a bear market that will put this one to shame. I'm talking about a year at a minimum.
In the chart below, I used a monthly bar. You can see that it has been one large bubble with corrections along the way. While we live it, it feels like individual bubbles because of the time that seems like it's not in a bubble, like now.
https://i.imgur.com/y1plwgr.png

Smart money doesn't get rich by making you and I rich. They will do very little at the beginning of on-exchange buying, and let the hype pull people in to do the real work.

joe blow will never buy, joe blow just wants to get paid every other week. and he will, becuase joe blow dose a good job.

Mr or Mrs Public eventually does what the deepest pockets wish them to do. They just make their favoured option the hardest to resist.

None of the technologies that we've all embraced ever originated from a tidal wave of public desire. It was presented to the masses by some very clever back room folks.

The question is whether enough of those pockets will ever wish to get behind crypto in meaningful way.

It did not immediately shoot up, but you can see what happened after that.  :P

really interesting stuff thank you for the explanation, i'll have to read up more on elliott wave theory.

there is no way to save bitcoin's final capitulation, bitcoin is not going to anywhere but down!

Im making screen captures of your shitty FUD posts to make a collage and post them a year from now, will masturbate using your butthurt tears as lube. Enjoy, I will.

Yes. And it appeared there are a lot of dumb money are invested in bitcoin now.

All the charts seems to predict a great future for bitcoins but I'm not so sure about it, the downswing seems unstoppable :(

in fact, yes, it was at $15 when the halving happened, went pretty far from there... of course, not immediately, but demand was surely overwhelming supply during 2013.

Where do you get the downswing from? Every day new companies rise up and the adoption goes on. Even if the absolute exchange rate would go down the adoption goes on. No need to repeat all that news about Afrika, remittance market, Overstock, Expedia, Bloomberg, Winklevoss ETF and so on ... at some point simply the market demand will be there. Currently China seems to be a driving factor. But that will swap and real mass adoptions starts.

What a nice world where nobody can take the money of somebody else just by force. Where you can buy worldwide with one currency within seconds. Where you do not need a purse to carry a collection of exchange coins around. ....

You think these forum trolls actually have bitcoins  ::)

Read my lips:

No.
New.
Rallies.

Bubbles are fueled by dumb money.

As for public interest, here's the current report from Google Trends.
http://i57.tinypic.com/2pyt1df.png
Bitcoin interest peaked with the China bubble.

Bitcoin price tracks Google Trends for the term "bitcoin" moderately closely.

I think he is referring to the price, rather then the overall adoption of bitcoin. I agree that the price has dropped a lot recently, however adoption by the public will likely crease additional buying pressure as people will want to purchase bitcoin to spend at various merchants and will likely end up buying more then they actually spend.