Bitcoin Forum

Do you think Bitcoin will go back up to 20+?

Yes maybe or nearly within the next eighteen months either that or there stay below $6 until the new year  ???

Edit: I can see $7 maybe $9 definitely by January  :-\

I guess if anyone really knew they'd be rich..

Of course I don't know, But it stands to reason that if supply remains constant and the block reward is halved the price should approximately double.

Yes bitcoin is still too new and uncertain for major investment but if it can stay above $4 for the next 24 months I can see more people investing in it although if BTC doesn't reach $9 by January you can see a lot of miners packing up and the chance of bitcoin becoming more centralised very likely  :'(

I'd like to think this is the case, and I'm quite certain that people who understand how mining works would view it as such, but I think the value may depend on how quickly people are looking for large quantities that will affect the value in relation to the rate at which the coins are produced.

Wait till Sunday night to buy.

If people are set on buying X dollars worth of coins every day regardless of dollar price then a double makes sense (with some other probably false assumptions). But if people want X coins it all depends on their elasticity of demand and it could be a much bigger increase. I think the first is much closer to the truth, but I think that in addition to a supply decrease we'll experience a demand increase over the next year (and the next and next and next...).

Good points. I don't say these things with great confidence. We will be entering untested water when the reward halves.

I did the math on this.  Assuming Market cap increases at a constant rate.  There will be a small effect from the block reward getting cut in half.  With this assumption, bitcoin price will increase at USD .08  per month instead of $.04.  I did my calculation starting from the bottom after the spike to USD 30.

Of course, today we are seeing that bitcoin is having trouble supporting the USD 5 level.  This is not inline with my assumption.  Who knows?

Now it is

Buy and hold that is.   ;D

It is always a good time to buy. It may cost you more and some points in time than others but right now it is a coin collecting race. Who ever has the most coins once ALL the coins have been mined controls the power. I speculate the value of bitcoin will rise quickly and more steadily once all the coins are mined.

My 2 cents. Thoughts?

Once all the coins are mined, we'll all be dead.

Just goes to show you what I know :)

Money is not a matter of "whoever has the most wins". If you have twice as much money as I do, that doesn't mean you control the power and I control nothing. It just means you have twice as much power as I do. Everyone has power in proportion to their wealth. The poor have less power than the rich, but they are not completely powerless. Contrast this with a typical democratic government, in which whoever has the most votes controls all the power and everyone else has nothing.

In any case, the only way to exercise the power that money provides is to spend it, after which you don't have as much money as you did, and somebody else has more. If somebody has a lot of money but they don't actually do anything with it, that money might as well not exist as far as the rest of the economy is concerned.

Yeah, money is the fairest sort of power there is. Unlike political power you have to part with it to use it. You hand it off to someone else in even measure to what you want them to do for you. Not near as much distinction when the ability to produce money for nothing is a political power, but it applies to good money.

Is that why bitcoin is called a killer app?

yes  ::)

If people knew that in one week it was guaranteed that the price would double, it stands to reason that they would buy now.  Of course that would bring the price up until it was doubled, and people would stop buying.

But then we would all know that that was what would happen, so a week before that we'd buy.  Oh... except then the doubling would happen two weeks before the guaranteed double date.

So a week before that... etc, etc.

If an event is known to happen in the future, then the market will ensure that the effect on its price then is included in the price now.

There will be no doubling of price in December; that event is already priced in.

its always time to buy, until its too late

That only factors in speculators. Real users of BTC will only care about dumping all their fiat into BTC and sending it to someone who may then convert it back to fiat.

If such real use is a major part of BTC now due things like SR, then a doubling might not be priced in at all before the halving.

If I had spare cash I would still buy in now, but I wouldn't be too surprised to loose on the short term with value going down to 5.5 or so during the summer.

Why does everyone keep saying doubling/halving?  That assumes a linear x=y supply demand curve.  AFAIK we don't know the relationship.

I have heard that was what happened on some alt-chains at reward halving so its not entirely unfounded.

Yes! Buy as much as you can! Not just BTC but alt currencies too...

You're right that it's speculators who are setting the price.  But wrong that the second group has any effect on price.


Would not change the price at all, since for every bit of demand created by "buy X" an identical and opposite supply for "sell X" is created.

The thing that drives the price is holdings, call them speculators if you want, but as time goes by and the price of bitcoin becomes less and less volatile, people who are not speculators effectively become speculators -- because the risk is lower -- and increase demand.  This process certainly won't be triggered by the halving of the block reward.

None of which changes the fact that the block rate halving is unlikely to affect the price in any observable way.  The only people it will affect are the miners.  Half of whom might switch their rigs off.