Bitcoin Forum

Despite being reasonably bullish, I would not be surprised if Bitcoin remains stable for the rest of the year (or until the ETF goes live). I am interested to hear the thoughts of others.

By rally, I mean a mega spike.

Yep, I feel the same. I dont know what the tipping point will be but it has been less than a year since we went up 10x, which isnt that long in non crypto time. ETF, Cyprus style bail in or stock market drama? I get the feeling while it is so expected it wont appear.

There won't be any more rallies. Bitcoin is slowly fading away.

Your guess is as good as mine but my bitcoin is on the price rising as we go forward.

Fuck. No.


September 2015? maybe

This is what I was thinking... We are in for a LONG LONG period of $300-600.. a long period.

Yeah, though I think we will see into the 700s and 800s.

Bitcoin is definitely NOT slowly dying.

It's INCREDIBLY resilient.

I'm quite surprised at all of the psychics around here. Let me exercise my mysticism while we're at it.

A "mega-spike" in the coming month is incredibly unlikely. These mega-spikes are typically preceded by a relatively calm base followed by a slow ramp up followed by an increasingly exponential ramp. I doubt the price action can just go from "are we in an uptrend or downtrend?" to "OMG I better panic buy at any rate possible!!!" But you never know. Some crazy awesome news might start the rally any time.

On the other hand, a full year of $300 - $600 is rather unlikely as well. There is too much adoption happening. There is too much awareness being spread. It is likely that the COIN ETF will launch opening up access in an entirely new and huge way. There is the GABI fund estimated to start trading on 9/1. Just wait until offshore money starts to realize the potential. I have a feeling that's one of GABI's primary targets, and that's estimated to be a 22 - 31 trillion dollar market.

But you know, my crystal ball may provide different results than yours.

Not a chance. Price has been stable for too long, it would take something really big to create a mega spike.
Even if Amazon/ebay would start accepting BTC, that would likely increase the price by ~20-30% rather than few hundred % (unless you could get a discount for using BTC).

Then again, it would only takes one big investor to drive the price up... You can't predict those things.

I don't expect to see any major spike until there are clear and stable regulations regarding BTC in US/EU.

No reason for a rally in September at all. On the contrary, the final capitulation of weak hands should be expected and a hundred dollar downside from here. After that - a slow gradual rise over the next 12 months to ATH at $1000-1200 by the end of 2015. ETF is only a hype, an illusion, on the level of naivety of Iceland adopting Auroracoin for its currency.

I hope that we will see a rally in September but no one can predict it, surely it won't die like someone said.

Good comment.  Would you say you are expecting a steady return to $600 - $1000 by the end of this year?

BTC's market cap is only 7 bill....  one person could skyrocket it to 30 bill...   I don't think they will but saying an instant mega rise is not possible is wrong.

No rally in September.

November could bring a rally but probably not a bubble, if that's what you are referring to.

If Bitcoin is stabilizing, expect no rally. Which can be a good thing. Prices will just gradually but slowly increase. The days of sudden spikes to $1000 level are over unless market intervention/demand. But rest assured, price will rise over time albeit slowly. Just as certain as fiat money losing its value over time.

That ETF is already priced in. When insiders learn that the ETF won't be approved, they'll start dumping their coins. The price will plummet, and the cultist permabulls will panic sell until BTC settles at 250ish prices. Shortly after that, it'll bounce up to 370 or so.

Insiders seem to trade with impunity. During the silkroad coin stash sale, the market seemed to predict that the coins had not been snapped up for a song... And that is exactly what happened.

I think there will be no rally in September,but i believe a rally will happen in November.It's only my opinion.

The non-approval is also priced in. As is the next ETF that will come after this one and will get approved. Also, USA accepting bitcoin as a national currency in 2024 is also priced in. Every possible event is priced in... Just with a very low probability multiplier.

a slowly rise maybe? but not really a rally(no pun intended lol)

A slow rise expected but not a rally like last year ... But who knows  ;D

This is a tough one now... I guess if people are coming back from their summer vacations and trading commences again, we may see another big rally. I'm all in for a slow but sustainable growth over the period of a couple months.

I think Bitcoin is in the "chasm" stage, as much as that stage can apply to Bitcoin.  We are somewhere between where all the early speculators have invested and where the public can start adopting it (via regulations and new platforms for trading and purchasing and remittance, etc.).

How long will it take to get over this chasm? Who knows - that's the million (multi-billion) dollar question. Meanwhile, the price will struggle with support until we cross the chasm. I expect we could go as low as <$250 again if there is a long wait (12-18 months).  Or if some of these innovations come early (3-6) months we might see another bubble first quarter of 2015.

But for now we are in a long slog of having speculative money holding the price up as the chasm phase price discovery unravels.

IT only takes breaking the physcological barrier. Bitcoins value is placed by the physcological aspects behind it ...

I believe there will be the start of a rally before the years end, which will carry into the spring of 2015. The level of innovation, awareness and adoption is too great to have the price sit in the $500 range for a full year from now. We also had an incredible price run from low $xxx all the way up to $1200 range, some time is needed to seek equilibrium. This feels very much like the summer of 2013 to me, and I believe the ETF's will be the trigger for the rally when they are finally released. It is hard for me to fathom any other news triggering the run. Wall Street's influence cannot be underestimated and I do not believe the market has priced their impact in.

This is BTCitcoin, so anything can happen. Few assets exist out there today where you can experience the range of high's and low's of investing and still come out ahead of the game year after year. Thank you Satoshi.

I disagree.  The ETF is not a certainty.  Also, if the ETF does happen there will be quite a bit a fiat added into the bitcoin market.

There could be a rally with GABI starting trading this fall. They are expecting a $200mil pump into btc exchanges

If a stable price will put an end to all the nonsensical bear fud, I'd be all for it but i doubt it would help. and I doubt the price won't rise significantly until next year.


Tell me about it, you would think that some of them that are so wise would be alittle more open minded but no way.

My crystal ball doesn't tell me time frames, only that bitcoin doesn't capitulate for more than a year and doesn't stay "flat" for more than 6 months (until adoption saturation occurs.) Next rally begins on or before February 2015. Outside of the crystal ball, my guess is that it starts a slow and relatively steady incline rather soon. This capitulation has been brutal, and I can't see it continuing much longer in light of all of the new development. I started buying consistently again in April and will continue to do so.

There is some similarity between this July's suppressed rally and November 12 one.

https://i.imgur.com/UWCipmq.png

If we are to repeat it, we should expect 4 weeks up, to about 640, then 4 weeks flat and then - rally.
From the other hand, the November 12 rally had more upward momentum: steeper rise, sharp peak and lesser drop aftewards.

tl;dr; Don't know

September rally has been postponed to november. Now lets hope for the best..

$300? We haven't seen $300 since last November. That's like the mythical $30 it was supposed to fall to last summer or the <$1 it was supposed to fall to in late 2011.

Sorry, it aint gonna happen.

The last half year has seen the price pretty steady in the $450-$680 range.

When this changes, it's far more likely to rise toward quadruple digits than to fall as low as $300.

Not sure about a rally or not but going in September onwards, it would be very unlikely that the price will fall below the 500 mark

I wish, but likely more at mid to the end of Oct

How much we must wait until ETF ?

I wish btc to rally slowly to avoid bubble so that no ones has to buy at the top

Bitcoin trading is a game of musical chairs. There always has to be someone who loses for others to make gains.

Whenever the launch date of the ETF is announced or the permission to do so is granted a spike will appear in your graphs (it will probably start a few days early due to people with insider knowledge buying).

Looking at Bitstamp price at 3/5m intervals, it looks like the price is unnaturally pegged at 500, bid / ask sides are almost equal.

The government should clamp down on insider trading in bitcoins as well.  ;D

There is a widely expected outcome of being listed as a ETF and the price might already shown the build in sentiment.

Should it be listed, the upside will be limited due to the expected outcome. If it didn't get the permission to be listed, the price will plunge due to the surprising outcome.

agreed

The ETF news is old hat, unlikely to drive a new spike
Prob will need strong news from the regulatory side to move up from here

Yes, but chances are it will be in november.

Well, let's hope for GABI to get the train going, but I wouldn't hold my hopes up just too high now. If it really is already priced in and the market won't move significantly, we may even go further down as a result of everyone being disappointed!

Right now there arent any high probability pathways in existance for the bitcoin price. That is to say, it's not really clear. Sentiment is probably slightly positive on balance and it seems there may be some room for another correction, but most of the weak hands seem to have sold out now.

It's very possible we are close to the bottom now and preparing ourselves for the next big bull market.

Having said that, there is also a strong possibility that bitcoin may go down more.

The future path of bitcoin is now in the hands of the politicians. Bitcoin has hit the mainstream and is now (for all intensive purposes) a standard financial asset, that is traded amoungst professional traders and fund managers. It is not going to get more mainstream than that until we see a big change in the wider economic circumstances.

That said, the price may go up, it may go down over the next few months but, barring any "black swan" events (which actually are now less black swan than you might think), I can't see it moving up alot if at all.

There are circumstances however under which the price could move down, namely if people loose faith in bitcoin, or dump coins because they are no longer getting rich quick. However as said before, I think we have just been through that period of shaking out.

In summary, no significant moves predicted yet in either direction for the time being but stay tuned, with eyes focused on the macro situation. That's where new drivers of the price may emerge.

PS. Whether a deflationary or inflationary trend takes hold, then bitcoin prices may go up. However in the case of a deflation first, prices may initially decline, to be followed by a subsequent increase during an inflationary period. There is a chance that with the Eurozone announcing QE, we are now at the end of the deflationary phase and beginning of the inflationary phase that so many pundits have been forecasting since the 2008 financial crash.

TLDR;

short-term BTC price prognosis: weak bullish.

September is Summer time vacation. Users will probably sell some of the holding to pay for vacation.

deppends how bad things around the world will be.
There are some countries starting to have economic troubles too.

So we may have a chance

The start to September hasn't been good.  :)

At this moment I'm leaning towards yes.  I'd expect it to be later in the month but yea I think we will likely see some rally in the coming weeks.  I've just now become an uber bull and I'm liking it. 

As much as I would love to see a rally I am not too sure we may before the end of the year. We may see a slight increase but nothing too drastic that we could call it a rally I don't feel.

Rally on Christmas would be a nice present. :)

Well, it's actually positive to see so many lose hope on a bubble in the short term. That means it's all the more possible. :D For now, things look quite bleak to me. I think the bottom is a considerable ways off and that we'll have a shot at much better entry than $400s.

If I'm right, it's actually quite good -- lower price = better coin distribution. And cheap coins for us. Bring on $300 bitcoins!

Would this be the first time that bitcoin has lost value in a calendar year?

how is the etf already priced in? wouldn't the news and publicity from the fund going public potentially be a driver of bitcoin price?

ETF is not priced in. Neither is possibility of ebay accepting coin. In fact even Overclock and Newegg are no factored in (very much).

The majority of investors actually have no idea what is really going on in BTC-land and just hopped on to the bandwagon without much thought.

The real driver of price is simply determined by the following equation:

(N - O) * P

N = New users coming in
O = Old users leaving
P = Price velocity over past 30 days (can go either up or down)

It is that multiplication of P that leads to the pattern of exponential growth bubbles followed by corrections. It is unavoidable, it is inevitable, it is extremely profitable for those that understand this simple equation.

For the last few months N has been low enough that N - O was a negative number, this was boosted by all the people that had joined in a short time meaning that O was also a lot larger than normal. This is what led to the recent downward price movement.

The good news is that now O is becoming a lot smaller and N is (slowly) starting to rise again. Once the upward velocity kicks in the positive feedback loop will be re-ignited.

Not to mention the money flowing in through the fund....