Title: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 02, 2014, 03:43:58 AM http://www.bitcoincharts.com/
predicts a tiny jump from current diff of 27,428,630,902 to new diff of 27,428,876,790 This is a .0007 percent jump . https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty current diff of 27,428,630,902 Est next diff of 31,483,693,450 This is a 14.78 percent. Well which will it be? I have a good idea how each one does its magic prediction. I usually shoot in the middle. But we ripped a 20.86 and a 15.03 back to back. I do not think we see over 7% this time. place your guesses here Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: dropt on September 02, 2014, 05:09:41 AM It ain't over yet. Asicminer is alleged to be deploying still. Hashratio was still building another two warehouses in northern china, SPTech is shipping/finishing the Aug GB and then moving onto Sept orders which have sold out, Bitmain is still selling the S3 and will also be selling the S1 upgrade kits, KnC just landed 60MM for two new halls...
It's not going to be pretty for anyone still ordering HW. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: gallery2000 on September 02, 2014, 05:27:19 AM It ain't over yet. Asicminer is alleged to be deploying still. Hashratio was still building another two warehouses in northern china, SPTech is shipping/finishing the Aug GB and then moving onto Sept orders which have sold out, Bitmain is still selling the S3 and will also be selling the S1 upgrade kits, KnC just landed 60MM for two new halls... It's not going to be pretty for anyone still ordering HW. and Bitmain just launched Hashnest.com with 4P Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: DrG on September 02, 2014, 08:35:21 AM bitcoincharts almost always under-reports increases until the very last day. I would go with bitcoinwisdom. Either through luck or a real surge but hashrate hit 240PH right at the turn, so if that hashrate is real and close to 200 to 220 even then we'll probably be at least 10, if not 15%.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: railzand on September 02, 2014, 09:10:20 AM hope: -99% ;D
expect: +14.7% Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: lowbander80 on September 02, 2014, 11:50:42 AM so can we every time purchase 15% hash power???
All I know is that for the next 12-14 days the payout will be almost the same From that point on who knows, its been a bunch of unpleasant news for garage miners I have a small hash power invested there all my profits and pay my electricity plus I buy here and there a miner from pocket money, but until when this will continue In one time I will reach my electricity capacity and then will need more and then willl need more winter and less summer I am sure I cant compet hashratio,hashnest,zencloud,knccloud, etc So is the end of small miner / garage mining come to an end. and then we will see how much each one of us will support the cloud mining when you dont control anything. I am so sceptical for my next moves as its the same game of the stock holder on a big company that day by day increases the number of shares in circulation....finally the small stock holder that will not continue investing will loose his investment. I am not stopping BUT where this is going to reach. Lowbander80 Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 02, 2014, 01:15:15 PM so can we every time purchase 15% hash power??? All I know is that for the next 12-14 days the payout will be almost the same From that point on who knows, its been a bunch of unpleasant news for garage miners I have a small hash power invested there all my profits and pay my electricity plus I buy here and there a miner from pocket money, but until when this will continue In one time I will reach my electricity capacity and then will need more and then willl need more winter and less summer I am sure I cant compet hashratio,hashnest,zencloud,knccloud, etc So is the end of small miner / garage mining come to an end. and then we will see how much each one of us will support the cloud mining when you dont control anything. I am so sceptical for my next moves as its the same game of the stock holder on a big company that day by day increases the number of shares in circulation....finally the small stock holder that will not continue investing will loose his investment. I am not stopping BUT where this is going to reach. Lowbander80 I wish you were wrong,but as I see it the home miner era is ending. Yeah I managed to find some 3 cent a kwatt power but only enough to use 2 s-3's. I also found some 6 cent a kwatt power and once again not a lot 2 tubes. So in house I can run nothing in a month or two since my power in house is 15 cents a kwatt.. What does it all mean for my self controlled mining around 2.4th. All the rest must be in the cloud. I do not like the cloud. Oh well I still think the asic builders should stand pat and mine or really limit growth as it is in their best interests to do just that. The current bitcoinchart has a negative diff 27428m to 27419m just under -0.033 % Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 27419024068 http://bitcoincharts.com If I run 20ph at 1 watt a gh and 6 cents a kwatt I have no need to grow if I can convince the 4 or 5 other big players to do the same. If the network is 210ph and grows under 5% my 20ph at 1 watt-gh 6 cents a kwatt and 480 usd makes quite a bit of coin. A 1th unit would earn 1300 usd after power a builder can make one for 300 usd so a 1000 dollar profit times 1000 = 1 million dollars on 1 ph if growth is stifled to 5% that is 20 million dollars on a 20 ph center. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: mmortal03 on September 03, 2014, 01:41:41 PM bitcoincharts looks to be down.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 04, 2014, 11:11:10 AM Charts are back up and they predict a very small jump.
http://www.bitcoincharts.com Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 27924069456 in 1487 blks that is about 1.81% A big contrast with https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 27,428,630,902 Estimated Next Difficulty: 31,695,344,824 (+15.56%) most likely we will be at 6-9% but 3-5% would be better. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: FlyForFun on September 04, 2014, 01:30:08 PM I would go with bitcoinwisdom, they are usually right...
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: frigidformself on September 04, 2014, 02:39:33 PM Charts are back up and they predict a very small jump. http://www.bitcoincharts.com Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 27924069456 in 1487 blks that is about 1.81% A big contrast with https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 27,428,630,902 Estimated Next Difficulty: 31,695,344,824 (+15.56%) most likely we will be at 6-9% but 3-5% would be better. Every two weeks I die a little inside. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 04, 2014, 09:09:40 PM Charts are back up and they predict a very small jump. http://www.bitcoincharts.com Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 27924069456 in 1487 blks that is about 1.81% A big contrast with https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 27,428,630,902 Estimated Next Difficulty: 31,695,344,824 (+15.56%) most likely we will be at 6-9% but 3-5% would be better. Every two weeks I die a little inside. yeah most often it is true. @ FlyForFun www.bitcoincharts.com uses real time speed based on the 1 diff session www.bitcoinwisdom.com tosses in a mix of the older and current sessions. So if you had a big diff the last few sessions www.bitcoinwisdom.com runs high until the last day or two. www.bitcoincharts.com uses real time so 5 blocks one the one jump in they can be way off. 100 blocks in way off. Right now they are 700 blocks in about 1400 to go. they are trending up to 2.4% most likely that is still too low but bitcoinwisedom has been flat at 14.93 % . I am still thinking we will be under 10% this time maybe under 8%. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: eoakland on September 04, 2014, 11:57:52 PM my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 05, 2014, 12:22:42 AM my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th. well the batch #8 is the next jump not this one. about 2222 s-3's = 1 ph as 2222 x 450 = 999,900 that is just under 1ph. 1ph = under 0.5% diff jump. as the network is over 200ph I do not believe they sold 10,000 since early batches ran under 3000 a batch. so that is 4.5 th or a 2.2% jump. The network is getting very big. I would be shocked to see a 16% jump this time. That would be over 32ph in gear. That is about 71,000 s-3's Not going to happen. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 1 block in 9.3 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ 6.24 blocks in 1 hour or 1 block on 9.6 minutes but I was wrong on some of my guesses the 20% jump fooled me. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: DrG on September 05, 2014, 04:49:58 AM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%.
AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 05, 2014, 09:16:56 PM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: DrG on September 06, 2014, 04:53:40 AM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 06, 2014, 10:17:52 AM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable. well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: eoakland on September 06, 2014, 04:40:49 PM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable. well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%. Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ? Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 06, 2014, 05:05:49 PM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable. well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%. Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ? No that is gambling. This thread is speculation and is here to guide those looking to expand or shrink their mining activities. Lets face it I am in the camp that growth is shrinking towards a 6-9% range for the next 140 days. Doc G is in the 12-18% camp. Makes a big difference on how you play with BTC mining. If you are in my camp and your power cost is under 10 cents a k-watt you can still buy gear. If you are in Doc G's camp buying gear is wrong even with cheaper power. His camp would say shrink your mining and use the money from selling it to buy coins. Lets face both of us are in the dark making educated guesses as to what to do. For me dumping gear is a reality my 2 small cheap power deals are filled up and in house at 15 cents a k-watt will stop working in a few months. Even with 4-8% growth my in house mining ends in feb or march. and btc wise = 13.58% bitcoin charts = 5.87% as of 1 pm eastern standard time. and we are about 1000 block done and 1100 to go. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: DrG on September 06, 2014, 06:04:38 PM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable. well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%. Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ? No that is gambling. This thread is speculation and is here to guide those looking to expand or shrink their mining activities. Lets face it I am in the camp that growth is shrinking towards a 6-9% range for the next 140 days. Doc G is in the 12-18% camp. Makes a big difference on how you play with BTC mining. If you are in my camp and your power cost is under 10 cents a k-watt you can still buy gear. If you are in Doc G's camp buying gear is wrong even with cheaper power. His camp would say shrink your mining and use the money from selling it to buy coins. Lets face both of us are in the dark making educated guesses as to what to do. For me dumping gear is a reality my 2 small cheap power deals are filled up and in house at 15 cents a k-watt will stop working in a few months. Even with 4-8% growth my in house mining ends in feb or march. and btc wise = 13.58% bitcoin charts = 5.87% as of 1 pm eastern standard time. and we are about 1000 block done and 1100 to go. DrG was in the same camp as Phillip. DrG once thought difficulty would not hit 1 Billion very quickly back when Bitcoin was sitting in $100s. Now Bitcoin is sub $500 but difficulty is at 30 billion. DrG think miners have lost their minds and have been overrun with greed and mining has been centralized with economies of scale. DrG believes mining for profit is only for idiots like himself who have a little cheap power and even then realizes he may not ROI on his Bitmain S3s. DrG has gone full pessimist on mining.... never go full pessimist :-\ :'( Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 06, 2014, 06:52:35 PM I would stick with Bitcoinwisdom's 15% estimate. If could just be good luck right now or it may very well be new power added to the network, but in the next 1400 blocks I'm sure some more Neptunes and SP stuff will come online to ensure the 15%. AM stuff is still a mystery - guess that 150PH in chips hasn't been materialized into hardware. well you never know but it has trended down a bit more on btc wisdom it is around 13.6 % Well you can't forecast luck. BTC Guild is now doing well and Ghash.io has been doing pretty badly. The network hasn't found a block in 55 minutes - bad streaks throughout the day - but I'm not complaining :P Yeah 55 minutes for the entire network to find a block is pretty remarkable. well whether we do 8% or 13% in 7 more days. Either one is far better then 20%. Phillip, Dr.G....we should all put .01 btc in a pot and let the winner get it ? No that is gambling. This thread is speculation and is here to guide those looking to expand or shrink their mining activities. Lets face it I am in the camp that growth is shrinking towards a 6-9% range for the next 140 days. Doc G is in the 12-18% camp. Makes a big difference on how you play with BTC mining. If you are in my camp and your power cost is under 10 cents a k-watt you can still buy gear. If you are in Doc G's camp buying gear is wrong even with cheaper power. His camp would say shrink your mining and use the money from selling it to buy coins. Lets face both of us are in the dark making educated guesses as to what to do. For me dumping gear is a reality my 2 small cheap power deals are filled up and in house at 15 cents a k-watt will stop working in a few months. Even with 4-8% growth my in house mining ends in feb or march. and btc wise = 13.58% bitcoin charts = 5.87% as of 1 pm eastern standard time. and we are about 1000 block done and 1100 to go. DrG was in the same camp as Phillip. DrG once thought difficulty would not hit 1 Billion very quickly back when Bitcoin was sitting in $100s. Now Bitcoin is sub $500 but difficulty is at 30 billion. DrG think miners have lost their minds and have been overrun with greed and mining has been centralized with economies of scale. DrG believes mining for profit is only for idiots like himself who have a little cheap power and even then realizes he may not ROI on his Bitmain S3s. DrG has gone full pessimist on mining.... never go full pessimist :-\ :'( Well about this time last year silk road was busted coins were under 100usd. then along came a 90 day bull run. coins got over 1100. maybe the bulls s stampede for the next 90 days. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: fairlay on September 07, 2014, 01:11:58 AM actually we offer a option on our site to predict the next difficulty.
If your are interested what users predict (and are willing to put BTC on this predictions) click on [show additional information] here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Right now most user are thinking ne next dif will be ">31". That results in higher odds for "<31B". Right now you get 3.5 times your money back if you predict on <31B and it turns out as the truth. Basically we think most user on our site trust in the prediction of bitcoinwisdom. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 07, 2014, 01:49:18 AM actually we offer a option on our site to predict the next difficulty. If your are interested what users predict (and are willing to put BTC on this predictions) click on [show additional information] here: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Right now most user are thinking ne next dif will be ">31". That results in higher odds for "<31B". Right now you get 3.5 times your money back if you predict on <31B and it turns out as the truth. Basically we think most user on our site trust in the prediction of bitcoinwisdom. Well I don't place bets like that,but your site has a nice idea if used properly you can hedge your mining investments with your site. Myself I hope the best for your site. Maybe a winner from the last guess could post about you. Let us know how the site is. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: fairlay on September 07, 2014, 02:07:46 AM ,but your site has a nice idea if used properly you can hedge your mining investments with your site. Myself I hope the best for your site. Thanks! Actually that is one of our next plans: we want to have an additional interface to difficulty predictions on a simple website, called: "bitcoin mining insurance". The idea is to insure your mining investment against a certain difficulty (e.g. 100B at at end of the year). Basically it is a bet that it will happen. Even if you don't want to risk any money you can profit from it because you can see at what conditions people are willing to predict on something. Have a look what the difficulty might be by the end of the year: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/ P.S. if you want to know more about the concept of the site: read this interview: http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/interview-fairlay-prediction-market-replace-bitcoin-bookies/ Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: xstr8guy on September 07, 2014, 03:14:47 AM my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th. well the batch #8 is the next jump not this one. about 2222 s-3's = 1 ph as 2222 x 450 = 999,900 that is just under 1ph. 1ph = under 0.5% diff jump. as the network is over 200ph I do not believe they sold 10,000 since early batches ran under 3000 a batch. so that is 4.5 th or a 2.2% jump. The network is getting very big. I would be shocked to see a 16% jump this time. That would be over 32ph in gear. That is about 71,000 s-3's Not going to happen. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 1 block in 9.3 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ 6.24 blocks in 1 hour or 1 block on 9.6 minutes but I was wrong on some of my guesses the 20% jump fooled me. Using Bitmain or any consumer ASIC manufacturer's shipments to predict difficulty growth is rather pointless these days. Consumer gear is playing a much diminished role in moving the difficulty higher. There aren't enough home miners to make that much of a difference. The big hash power is coming from manufacturers with their own hardware and datacenters. That's what's moving the difficulty higher. And there's no reliable way to predict that growth. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: fairlay on September 07, 2014, 04:59:43 AM my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th. well the batch #8 is the next jump not this one. about 2222 s-3's = 1 ph as 2222 x 450 = 999,900 that is just under 1ph. 1ph = under 0.5% diff jump. as the network is over 200ph I do not believe they sold 10,000 since early batches ran under 3000 a batch. so that is 4.5 th or a 2.2% jump. The network is getting very big. I would be shocked to see a 16% jump this time. That would be over 32ph in gear. That is about 71,000 s-3's Not going to happen. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 1 block in 9.3 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ 6.24 blocks in 1 hour or 1 block on 9.6 minutes but I was wrong on some of my guesses the 20% jump fooled me. Using Bitmain or any consumer ASIC manufacturer's shipments to predict difficulty growth is rather pointless these days. Consumer gear is playing a much diminished role in moving the difficulty higher. There aren't enough home miners to make that much of a difference. The big hash power is coming from manufacturers with their own hardware and datacenters. That's what's moving the difficulty higher. And there's no reliable way to predict that growth. That is probably true. However - it might be possible to use the growth rate of MHash/$ and Mhash/J of the known consumer miners to estimate the growth of the network. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 07, 2014, 11:38:16 AM my guess is 16%...and something even nastier after Bitmain deploys it's s3 batch #8 on sept 20th. well the batch #8 is the next jump not this one. about 2222 s-3's = 1 ph as 2222 x 450 = 999,900 that is just under 1ph. 1ph = under 0.5% diff jump. as the network is over 200ph I do not believe they sold 10,000 since early batches ran under 3000 a batch. so that is 4.5 th or a 2.2% jump. The network is getting very big. I would be shocked to see a 16% jump this time. That would be over 32ph in gear. That is about 71,000 s-3's Not going to happen. https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty 1 block in 9.3 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ 6.24 blocks in 1 hour or 1 block on 9.6 minutes but I was wrong on some of my guesses the 20% jump fooled me. Using Bitmain or any consumer ASIC manufacturer's shipments to predict difficulty growth is rather pointless these days. Consumer gear is playing a much diminished role in moving the difficulty higher. There aren't enough home miners to make that much of a difference. The big hash power is coming from manufacturers with their own hardware and datacenters. That's what's moving the difficulty higher. And there's no reliable way to predict that growth. In a nutshell this is the problem. also both bitmain and am will make data centers. bitmain open one to the non- Chinese recently. They may get government subsidized power . China has built a lot of empty cities since 2011. They could rent on or two dowzn spots to both companies and the dragon maker company. So a ware house with cheap power in a cold place in China can add ph's of hash. The home miners are just not needed . OH back to the thread bitcoinwisedom has dropped to 12.55% https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty I am still hoping for under 10% Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: gallery2000 on September 07, 2014, 01:05:30 PM Well about this time last year silk road was busted coins were under 100usd. then along came a 90 day bull run. coins got over 1100. maybe the bulls s stampede for the next 90 days. I love to see the bulls stampede, but I am afraid what I am getting this time is bull shits Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: DrG on September 08, 2014, 05:46:41 AM Oddly I notice that Bitmain shipping is on hiatus and the large spikes during each difficulty are on a hiatus. The numbers don't add up but the timeframes do ???
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: Nagle on September 09, 2014, 07:48:21 PM At 4 days to go, bitcoinwisdom predicts a 10.8% increase. It should be close to that.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 09, 2014, 07:55:29 PM At 4 days to go, bitcoinwisdom predicts a 10.8% increase. It should be close to that. while it is 10.86 from btc wise it is under that at bitcoincharts https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty ----------27,428,630,902 Estimated Next Difficulty: 30,408,729,351 (+10.86%) Adjust time: After 663 Blocks, About 4.3 days http://bitcoincharts.com/ Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 29354966811 in 663 blks This is around 7% Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: Nagle on September 10, 2014, 06:51:47 AM Bitcoin Wisdom is, at 3 days to go, predicting 10.6%. If their prediction algorithm is sane, the prediction should converge to the reality as the time runs out. Anyway, it's far bigger than 0.0007%.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: fairlay on September 10, 2014, 05:18:58 PM The predicted rise gets even smaller. It might result in a difficulty of <30B. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-30b-on-september-15/
However, the .0007 jump was never realistic. I think it is just the way http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ does the calculation - as far as I observed they always predict a minimum change right after the latest change and then it converges against the real next diff. Thus after 1 week it converges 50% (if the hashrate increase would be constant and linear of the ≈2 weeks. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 11, 2014, 01:08:45 AM The predicted rise gets even smaller. It might result in a difficulty of <30B. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitcoin-difficulty-30b-on-september-15/ However, the .0007 jump was never realistic. I think it is just the way http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ does the calculation - as far as I observed they always predict a minimum change right after the latest change and then it converges against the real next diff. Thus after 1 week it converges 50% (if the hashrate increase would be constant and linear of the ≈2 weeks. Down more: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 27,428,630,902 Estimated Next Difficulty: 29,997,491,453 (+9.37%) Adjust time: After 477 Blocks, About 3.1 days http://bitcoincharts.com/ Difficulty 27428630902 Estimated 29407065995 in 476 blks 7.21% here So the two have drifted from .0007 to 7.2% And from 14.78 to 9.37% This is the common pattern since bitcoincharts is real time number that projects it self into the future. btcwisedom uses the realtime number and older data to guess the future. since growth has been slower since june 30th they have had a different accuracy pattern. or at least a smaller pattern. So one tends to always be high the other tend to always be low and they trend to the middle. now at the 3 day mark 9% looks good. with a 9% rate in the bag there is a large incentive to not increase your gear until the day after the jump. (say what) this is for the miners that count the builders. bitmain tech will start shipping today knowing that the rates will drop a bit for the next 2-3 days while the gear is in transit. So we may go down to 8% then the next jump will come in 14-15 days that way both the new gear owners of an s-3 get a break for the first 2 weeks of ownership. and if bitmaintech wants to mine then ship in 2 jumps it is rinse and repeat . So while my .0007 jump got attention it looks to be part of the overall builders diff jump plan for us few small miners. I will take the 8-9 percent to the bank. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: judypug1956 on September 13, 2014, 04:06:02 AM btcwisdom is now at 9.01%
29,901M is the prediction. It was as high as 14% and 31,000M Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 13, 2014, 07:04:40 PM btcwisdom is now at 9.01% 29,901M is the prediction. It was as high as 14% and 31,000M under 10 blocks to go looks to be in at 9.18% or 29,950M. If we stay at 9.18 from now until dec 31st diff will be just about 2x at 60,000M That number is pretty good if it stays like that. Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: Nagle on September 13, 2014, 08:32:29 PM Difficulty just advanced to 29,829,733,124.
Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: fairlay on September 13, 2014, 09:05:00 PM Difficulty just advanced to 29,829,733,124. Yap - we just resolved our prediction: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Those who made the right prediction earned quite a lot since in the beginning most user believed it would result in >31B. The payout to those who predicted it right has been nearly 2,800 mBTC. Just set up two new predictions for the next round: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/ https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/ Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on September 13, 2014, 09:26:03 PM Difficulty just advanced to 29,829,733,124. Yap - we just resolved our prediction: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Those who made the right prediction earned quite a lot since in the beginning most user believed it would result in >31B. The payout to those who predicted it right has been nearly 2,800 mBTC. Just set up two new predictions for the next round: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/ https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/ I have a new thread for next diff jump https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=781447.0 see it if you want to go to fairley's site it may help handicappers pick the next jump Title: Re: Hope for diff increases as bitcoincharts = .0007 percent jump predicted. Post by: philipma1957 on June 30, 2015, 04:56:00 PM part of sorting the diff threads.
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