Bitcoin Forum

I'm going to make the call right now, and this isn't coming from some troll.  But I believe bitcoin will hit sub $100, possibly sub $50 before anything further interesting develops.  By all means, as a trader, I wish it hits $5000 or $10,000 in the next 3 days.  But I just don't see exponential development in the near future... the long run, who knows though.  

I mean, wall street thinks bitcoin is overbought, overpriced, unsustainable.  The average citizen isn't crazy about bitcoin at all.  You ask the average Joe if they plan on buying bitcoin in the future and you get a melancholy "no".  You ask a smart ass in the streets about bitcoin and his answer is "the [expletivie] is that?"  You explain it and his response is well that is "[expletive] stupid".  

Institutions are already in on it.  Speculators are looking to make a quick buck only.  Then there are cultists, which is a super minority, and they believe in a whole bunch of unrealistic possibility.  The problem with mass adoption is that why would someone go through all this trouble to buy bitcoins, only to spend it on a blu-ray player they could have just bought with their visa.

It seems like only select intelligent people truly believe in bitcoin, and intelligent people are few and far between in this world.  

You are one intelligent man

Some exceptionally mediocre members here believe in bitcoin too. You don't have to be a supreme intelligent being to believe. I would also disagree about the cultist part. There is a huge cultist following present here.

U dont get btc.  It has nev3r been about retail.  That is just icing.  Its abt international payment primarily b2b and remittance.  In the currency race to devalue countries will ztop trusting eachothers currency.  And the free nations will pick any alt to the yuan.

fair enough. what makes BTC the obvious alternative? in theory, i could see BTC being used for international settlement of accounts. but in practice, i see no reason why it is the obvious answer.

BTC is for the poor, not the rich. I travel to india quite a bit, and people there are just starting to get it. 6 -12 month fluctuations are irrelevant. It's time is coming, in the short term in may not make a bunch of lazy assholes super rich like they were planning, but it will full fill its promise.

More or less correct. It has a lot of utility for black market applications and international remittance (especially if the price stabilizes... but at the same time if the price stabilizes then it cuts into the exchange aspect of it all).

There is also the expectation problem. If the price jumped dramatically, but not quite so exponentially due to Gox driving up the price then reaching a new ATH would not seem so far out of reach and a sustainable cycling up would seem more plausible. At this juncture, however, bag holders would be thrilled to see $600, again... we have a lot of people who no longer believe and are, more or less, looking for a respectable, face-saving exit point.

So, yea, going long would be insane and staying in is ok if you have a crypto fetish with the hope of maybe showing your kids that once upon a time you had a stake in this bold and crazy idea. It's not worthless and it is cool... but that doesn't mean, at least in terms of price, that the s--- isn't going to hit the fan.

like Barry Silbert said, bitcoin will have a binary outcome....there will be either a total loss of principal or a very, very high return. bitcoin may seem "overpriced & overbought" now, but the market cap is very tiny compared to its potential if bitcoin is widely adopted. people love to debate $300 vs $400 vs $500 for short term, but in a few years these price ranges won't be relevant or discussed (0-$10 or over 1k). unfortunately i think if your right about the price dropping as low as sub $50, it would be a fatal blow for bitcoin and confidence for recovery/mass adoption.

i don't think it's just B2B and remittance that makes bitcoin what it is. i know most here won't like hearing it, but illegal activity and semi-anonymity is a big feature of bitcoin. just take a look at the whole jennifer lawrence/celebrity leak incident. the guy on 4chan was asking for bitcoin because he would get away with supplying the pictures and receiving BTC without having to reveal his identity.

Then have you gone all in on a bitcoin short? Because if you really believe this you can make 90% return on your dollar.  Since your a "trader" and all.

I actually did exactly that this afternoon.

while i think there's a good chance there is more down from here, i think it's very risky to short here. i had a short from low 510s and closed it too early, but i can't risk opening again down here. too many people shorting. gonna get squeezed.

Yea, I have a stop loss around 488 (I'll reassess then if we go up before we go back down)... not very high at all... I don't care to risk getting totally raped on a bounce back, but the general sentiment is down and if we drop hard enough margin calls will take care of the rest... so on the reward side it is pretty reasonable.

agreed, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down to the final capitulation!

In this sense bitcoin is like the OWS movement; no one specific and stated use or goal. That for me is the best thing about it. You can love it for the libertarian aspect, the ability to stay relatively private, to be able to participate on the deep web. Or you can save on overseas transfers, save on CC fees, make a statement about government money printing, send value instantaneously, be fascinated by coding or algorithms or alt coins or blockchain technology.

For each angle there is a use case. Doesn't mean all or any will work or be the leader, in fact it is debatable whether spreading the focus is a help or a hindrance. On one hand a narrowed focus is a target but can be implemented quicker while multiple fronts can see one emerge from stealth development.

But no, i don't think there is any way it will go to $50 just on the strength of poor sentiment or because the St thinks it is overbought.

To be fair, OP did not actually provide a timeline on when it would go down. Instead, he basically said it is going to go down hard before it would ever, if it did ever, go up again (to say the $1000+ range). Taken as that and nothing more, it is reasonable. That doesn't mean that it will happen... it means it is reasonable.

We may have a triple low to bounce off before the next leg up, yes, but $50? Dude, I would be thrilled, but I really don't think it's going to happen. Too many people will be stocking up on the way there. $350 again maybe.

you say you'd be thrilled -- and i've seen others say that as well. do you really think so? it's easy to say now, won't feel the same if/when we get there. i got in mostly the $60s and $70s.... seeing $50 would scare me a bit. :)

when we were $1200, but $1000? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $1000, but $800? Dude, I would be thrilled
..
when we were $400, but $200? Dude, I would be thrilled
when we were $100, but $30? Dude, I would be thrilled
..

Sheesh, this is all so very reminiscent of Q3-Q4 2011...

A lot of people have made this claim, without any reasoning. Zero arguments for why it must be so.

Bitcoin might just as well stay at the level it's at right now. It doesn't have to follow the wishes and delusions of cultists and scammers like Silbert.

Listen, it's simple. We'll need a couple more years of being bitchslapped by Ben Bernakle and friends, and once USD and EUR are suffocating in devaluation, then maybe, maybe people wakes the fuck up and appreciates what BTC constitutes.

Well, certainly none of us heard it here first, and everything you pointed to in OP has been true all along, so evidently the price of bitcoin doesn't care about any of those things.

Good luck with your strategies.

I guess no one mine for less than $100/Bitcoin today only considering energy.

This is why much less than the current price is not a reasonable scenario without being together with a collapse in the network.

This. Which is why people are shorting at this price. Even if you see a cataclysm as a narrow possibility, it is a possibility... and one with a substantial pay off. Except for those who are just super Bitcoin fans, and that is totally legit, why wouldn't you short and just have a narrow stop loss in case of a bounce back. You'll probably lose a little, but the pay off v. risk v. probability makes for a decent bet so long as you properly use stop losses while we are in the zone of danger. F--- it, I am going for the gusto!

Or... to put it another way... we are a couple dumps and cascades away from paying off my student loans. For a couple percentage points risk to my asset base... I'll play that game.

So far there is nothing that points at a sub 100$ bottom. I expected to see a significant rise in BDD, from early adopters
that decide to cash out some (possibly buy back at the bottom) before the final leg of capitulation, but BDD stays low.
My guesstimate of the despondency stage is somewhere between 250$ and 300$, so a mild capitulation, unlike 2011,
simply because of the low seller pressure. It might still get scary for some n00bs though. :D

This is the more likely scenario. I think some people are wondering whether the VCs, big mining operations, and other infrastructure players might get spooked at that despondency stage, though. Will panic beget more panic. The velocity of the any potential dip will be very telling.

If Germany stored their reserves in bitcoins, rather than in gold, USA wouldn't be able to steal them.

Behind the scenes we are making all time highs.

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-popular?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-unique-addresses?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&show_header=true&daysAverageString=30&scale=0&address=

Exactly.

The trouble is that so many people here can't seem to see back further than last November.

A good portion of the people here didn't even know about Bitcoin prior to Nov 13.

I dunno it seems everytime we go sub $400 people to buy mode crazy.. can't blame them.

It is natural, after all, it is exponential growth...but of course it is quite annoying at times  ;D

Bitcoin was conceived to be a form of digital money. But now, Bitcoin is no longer digital money. It's actually digital gold. And just like gold, now $1200 an ounce, it is near impossible for gold to be below $100 an ounce, people would be mad buying should it ever be that low and the price will be up again. It's a hypothetical situation what OP is describing, and it only proves that he really has no idea what Bitcoin is and really shouldn't be making predictions. It's like a banker trying to predict the alignment of the stars and thinks if the stars don't align it will affect the price of his stocks

Good. Capitulation. :) I think if Bitcoin goes that low, it may ultimately have failed. We're now over a year above $100 and buying at that price will appear to be very very tempting for most people and quite a lot will be willing to buy on the off chance that Bitcoin recovers afterwards!

Nah, much too pessimistic. Maybe falllling is going to fall for that (haha, pun intended!) but $100 is much too low nowadays. There are too many bid walls to be filled in order to get there. Speculators are willing to buy a lot of those cheap coins before we reach those levels!

so that stop loss at 488 get triggered newbie? or you close before that big buy this morning?

On tradingview an analysis more bearish than mine (I recently said 250$ - 300$ bottom):
https://www.tradingview.com/v/HSiAMq3J/

Exceptionally intelligent folks are also better at pattern recognition than the rest of the population, which is why they tend to spot trends early, long before the rest of the herd catches on.

This is delusional as hell, big wallets will get in if we see these prices, before.

Quite.

You can be darned sure that no one predicting the demise of bitcoin has any other motivation than acquiring lots for themselves at a lower price.

From June 2011..another person who didn't/doesn't get it and need to do their homework in order to understand.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2011/06/20/so-thats-the-end-of-bitcoin-then/




It’s difficult to see what the currency has going for it.


https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=759601.msg8593755#msg8593755

I'll add one get some good deals with Bitcoin like the Labor Day Sale at Newegg
75 dollars off 300 bucks 150 off 500 bucks is a deal ^^
http://www.newegg.ca/bitcoin

A good example of discounts..and ill add the 2.5 Billion un-banked/ under banked that can now get a Xapo card and buy on line. It is a BIG deal as our #1 domestic airline has promos/discounts (up to 66%+) every month but you can only avail if a) you buy with a card online which more than 76% of the population do not have or b) Pay at one of very few outlets with a 6 or 7 pm cut off. ( or Banks with a 4-5pm cut off and many banks have a 30min+ queue)

Top 5 potential uses which are available and gaining momentum.

1 remittance abroad 540 Billion/yr market .. faster and cheaper in most cases particularly in Africa.

2 Business travelers save money when using Xapo compared to a credit/ debit card in 90% of cases

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=736643.msg8554196#msg8554196

3 Allowing the unbanked to buy on line and avail of large discounts and wider choice and giving merchants a better deal

http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/237026

4 allowing all and particularly the unbanked the convenience of paying bills online/via sms

https://www.google.com.ph/search?q=paying+bills+with+bitcoin&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&aq=t&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&channel=sb&gfe_rd=cr&ei=0KEKVK_TLc-CmAL_4YE4

5 Storing value in countries with high inflation rates/banking crises and political instability  eg Ukraine/ Argentina/Cyprus.

and remember bitcoin is still very much in its infancy.

I understand bitcoin.  I'm saying, it is just as likely to hit $5,000 or sub $100.  Bitcoin will never be adopted massively.  because the masses and bitcoin are oxymorons.  Modern banking institutions aka the govt's will never have it where bitcoin can be adopted massively.

Sure bitcoin can be mass adopted when/if the bankers buy entire network and own bitcoin.  And take over the miners.  The era of exponential growth might just be ending nowadays, or at least for a long long time...

And lol at anonymity argument, it's not anonymous anymore.  

It is hard to believe $100...if it gets to $300 massive buying will be the likely response..including a small player like myself. Equally $5,000 is unlikely in the medium term..but if 10% of the unbanked eventually  start using over the next 3 years ( 250 million) and have just .2 of a coin each that requires 50 million coins ( which do not exist ever) or fewer coins with a corresponding increase in fiat value .. Bitpay has a 33 fold increase in merchant adoption target to 1 million by end 2016  these are just 2 of the many uses so what is the likelihood of a drop to $100..pretty slim?

why you think would be massive buy at 300, and was not at 500?

Views of a system slave ::)
Alone the usefulness of bitcoin for the dark web black market gives bitcoin a value of hundreds of dollars.

No you don't, and you just reiterated that fact. When you say it's likely to hit sub $100, you just lost all credibilty to those who understand why bitcoin is so valuable and that it is insanely undervalued at the moment. When people realize just how difficult and costly it is now to mine bitcoins, they would've bought as much as they can afford. If bitcoin were to fall below $100 it would've done so long ago, but it hasn't because of natural market resilience. You don't have to go far, let it fall sub $400 and watch how many buy orders going in that price will almost immediately go up again. I guarantee you there's no chance in hell you're going to be able to buy bitcoins below $400 now.

it is a buy at 500 and I have bought as have others......I can afford to buy more at 300 than at 500 and I suspect than many are in the same position..this is purely because with my mid term target price near to the previous ath of 1,000 ish..the mid term risk reward ratio is higher at 300 ( +200%)  than 500 ( +100%). Should/when it reaches 1,000 I would re assess market indicators and decide whether to sell ( all or some, with the clear intention of buying back in on dips) or hold.for a better price. Obviously if your not a believer or have different targets and financial capacity the price when you would add substantially to current holdings may differ.

when bitcoin at the $1000 bubble, people said $500 is impossible, well we found out even $400 can be broke

Where are your sources?

You were not even a member when Bitcoin was $1000...

i will not search the source for you, you can deny this and claim people thought $500 is possible when they were posting train&moon&whatever at $1000 bubble

i do remember one topic was laughing at people who hadn't bought at $1000 when the price was $1150 or something and telling them the train was leaving

we now know bitcoin can drop to anywhere

Fallling, what will you do when we eventually are at 2000USD tho?

you are in the downtrend to a much lower place, better talk about this at least when the price stop dropping

So basically you are just talking crap like usual.  :D

Oh falling, I know you want to buy in bitcoins for as low as possible but please do be a little more realistic. You WOULD be hoping that bitcoin falls below $400 (me too, if the market grants such an opportunity) but sometimes the greedier you are the more you lose

Who cares, think long term and you are winning man.

the fact remains there is a lot more poeple into bitcoin ( more die hard believers  ) than ever, i can't believe price is inflated.... price was inflated at 1000$, but its not like there wasn't massive dumps at these "inflated" levels, and it snapped back over and over. now price is depressed because everyone that was in it for a quick buck has left. even some "sophisticated investors", are leaving because of the poor performance bitcoins has been showing the past year.

so what, good riddance, we don't need them, they will probably come back at the worst possible entry point anyway, lol.

meanwhile, a buttload of newbies are waiting for predictions like " if we break 440 its going to crash to 350 in hours " to come true b4 buying, i bet most of them haven't even bothered signing up to a exchange and getting ready, when / if that price comes, that will be the kick in the ass they need to send in the AML paper work, only there will be a backlog, we're gonna see the stampede coming, market will have no choice to go back above 500, newbies are going to "wait for bitcoin to crash again b4 buying in" only it will not crash... then some ETF will come out, brokers gonna call people,  the roof will be on fire, "sophisticated investors" are going to come back full force, and bam 5000$ pre bitcoin, and no sign of topping out.

http://onetimefortim.files.wordpress.com/2012/03/coolaid-bursting-through-the-wall-1754_preview.jpg

see this year is the 1st year that a new trend will start with BTC... the start of a multi year down swing.  I see it stabilizing at around $100 perhaps for years to come before anything interesting happens now.

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-venture-capital/

1. Of the $95million VC invested in 2013  2/3rds or $60M was invested from Oct to December...

2 Of the $185 million invested so far in 2014 the fruits of these investments in terms of bitcoin volume/ increased turnover and demand will not be seen for 6 - 18 months which is a normal "lead time" for any investment.

Those that have invested these large sums do not do so on a whim and have studied and produced business plans that they are implementing and expect to see results in the not to distant future and this is why the $100 dollar price is most unlikely barring any cataclysmic event.

So when do you expect this to happen?

So by the end of this month, what will happen?

Well unless paypal/amazon/ebay start to accept bitcoin in which case price will jump or another exchange folds (or similar adverse event) like Mt Gox in which case it will dive  ..nothing much will change the range bound price by the end of Sept  450-550....November is a likely time for a price rise when some substantial good news is expected re new adopters/services and sales/transaction volumes. However the truth is most people do not and cannot know where the price is going unless they are large enough to manipulate the market in the direction they want it to go. Barring that, significant increased/decreased demand will drive the price in either direction.

EDIT

Just saw this

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-08/ebay-s-paypal-unit-to-start-accepting-bitcoin-payments.html

Heard this before actually.

This was my warning back in December:

Here is my prognosis:

The chances of sub $50: only 10% chance

sub $100: 20% chance

70% chance of:

"Final capitulation" .... looks to stand at around $120-$250

Wall Street has been wrong for tens of years, what they say is irrelevant in terms of what will happen in the future

Lol, nah we talk to people daily on the streets and all are intersted,unless already super rich. :D

WHEN?

Would you care to explain how you see that happening instead of just posting some numbers.

Bitcoin to 120 dollars is a 70% certainty! Someone tell Paypal! These threads are ridiculous.

100% certainty... eventually. Bitcoin is not the future. It may be a stepping stone  to it. It won't be adopted by the masses without major, major changes.

Why? The general public will be using web wallets and phone apps. These are already several iterations along already. In five years everyone in a country with electricity will have some form of smart device which holds their wallet. Bitcoin just has to survive and it will rise up. (IMO :))

If nothing else, public relations. We have shitty exchanges (and it isn't just Gox, it is the flash crashes, the bot malfunctions, the front running, and the improper price placement on stop losses). We have drama. We have zealots. We have prices that sound high to the common man's ear (if you just moved a decimal place then it would be $47 per... and that doesn't sound so bad... that isn't how the common man thinks). We have Wall Street... and that's not a good thing (see everything that has happened in the world since the mid-1980s and the recent clusterf---s on the exchanges). We don't have a quality black market at present (OpenBazaar may fill that void). Retailers are, more or less by law, not allowed to maintain their profits in Bitcoin so adoption actually means sell pressure (if we can survive that then maybe, but that could take years). And other things but I have to go.

So zero% chance you are wrong?  Seems like you'd have a lot more credibility if you admitted some fallibility.

He didn't place a date on it. Ergo, there is zero chance that he is wrong. Zilch, Zero, nil.

Ah ok, in that case can a mod please change my post to "cool story bro" ? Thanks! :)

Please don't feed the trolls.

Consider:
1) Bitcoin has a history of huge % rallies, once things get moving.
2) The time frame for the next massive rally is quickly approaching.
3) Speculators (who are "looking to make a quick buck") will assure that the next rally is stunning and unforgettable.  :)

Let us just wait and see. :)

You can call all you want as long as you dont rant here when you are one of the boat missers yourself.

Bitcoin will be the next thing like mobile phones, the internet and computers. In the beginning they seemed stupid/useless but once widespread and adopted a trilliondollar business.

Come on people, if you can't provide a date it's not a prediction!

"We'll have affordable flying cars by 2020." <-- prediction

"We'll have affordable flying cars someday!" <-- fapping

Offer a poor Indian US$1000 of bitcoins or US$1000 of gold.  Which do you think they would prefer to store their wealth?

Many people would consider both statements to be caressing the fun sausage.

Please understand that if not for those lazy assholes, 1 BTC would be worth pennies at most.  That would be [arguably] good for Bitcoin, but I suspect YOU wouldn't want that to happen, amirite?

Of the many many retarded things you've said in the last week, this one takes the cake.

It's ridiculous that anyone who predicts and sees a down swinging bear market, and a overrated protocol / currency, is deemed as troll by the majority of bull guarders on this forum.

The truth is that the troll has shifted nowadays from the bears to the bulls.

Or a Segway

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/11/bitcoin-is-the-segway-of-currency/281625/

LOL Segways !!


 :D

Not quite sure myself how anyone can predict exactly what may happen but I am all for listening to people's views and seeing where they are coming from. Bitcoin could drop in price again and if it does we should be prepared for that, whether it will drop as low as you predict is something we will find out sooner or later.

Conclusion:

"So the biggest difference between Segway and Bitcoin might be that even mall cops won't use Bitcoin."

No, I heard the guy that invented Segway was killed after falling off a cliff when riding one. Bitcoin probably won't kill Satoshi.

If his identity is uncovered and he's holding BTC1200000 there will be enough motive to get him killed....
So Bitcoin is more like Segway than you think.

Oh calm down silly sausage. Just because the huge preponderance of obvious trolling threads and a few accounts of ONE single person have been silenced. What a difference it makes, too - harmony and ill feeling has left the forum in one fell swoop to reveal the true feeling of the forum.

Reasonable debate is to be welcomed always.

Your contribution so far is to suggest there is a 70% chance of  fall to 50-100 dollars from 475 dollars citing no evidence whatsoever. Good luck with your short.

Adam scammer! Give me money!

Can bitcoin be used by poor people? Mobile phones are used by the poor nowadays.

yes............  very much so
....
Billions of people on the planet have no access to bank accounts and, frankly, the banking system has shown no interest in them.

Already, mobile phone technology has moved in to fill the gap – by creating a whole new payment system that allows people to move money by text. The M-Pesa system in Kenya is the most developed example. In that country, 12 million people use a text message system developed by Vodafone to make transfers - that's more than a quarter of the population.

http://www.channel4.com/news/bitcoin-bank-of-england-super-rich-excluded-poor-internet-currency

http://cryptocrimson.com/2014/06/bitcoin-leveraged-bitpesa-makes-official-debut-kenya/

So are yout thinking poor people could have internet in their homes? have pc or laptop or even phones? You think the slums of India have internet?

There are enough and the numbers are growing fast. The poorest of the poor do not yet have their own but they will most probably know someone who has and have the opportunity to use that until they can get their own. Why would they? E commerce and remittance via sms saves money.

http://www.dazeinfo.com/2014/07/11/mobile-internet-india-2014-349-million-unique-mobile-phone-users-70-traffic-mobile-india-shining-infographic/

http://www.dazeinfo.com/2014/06/22/smartphone-apac-market-forecast-2014-2018-india-china-australia-japan-growth/


http://www.statista.com/statistics/257048/smartphone-user-penetration-in-india/

KNowing someone who was is not the same if you have you own

No..its not exactly the same..thats obvious..but it can be practically the same in many instances.

eg... They want to buy an air/bus ticket online to avail of the promo (up to 60% discount only available for online purchases)  they go to an internet cafe and book the ticket....so by having access via an internet cafe or a friends internet connection they achieve their goal of buying the ticket at the discounted rate ( goods/service whatever) on line that is not owned by them.

ditto for sending receiving money via sms..u generally need the code which is sent via sms and a valid ID to pick up the money.  It is therefore doable if you can borrow a cellphone.

Looks like you were right.  You've got some good insight here.  Too many people on here have blind optimism w/o any explanation or evidence whatsoever.

Agreed 100%.

BBBBBAAAAAM

It started getting over sold LONG LONG ago....  Now that we see some very decent adoption, it's getting exposed for what it is: an alternate currency that is an absolute hassle to use and a nightmare to get set up.

For newbs (I don't think you guys understand how computer illiterate the rest of the population is), make one mistake and your life savings could go down the drain.... not a great currency TBH.

If Bitcoin is needed and it is and if Bitcoin is stable and strong it is, if there is hate against fiat currencies and there will be; Bitcoin has every chance to succeed

Not to mention it offers ABSOLUTELY NO BUYER PROTECTION.  I think you're spot on, 99.9% of people would get scammed, lose private keys, send coins to the wrong address, etc the first time they tried to use btc.  I've seen experienced users do it with a bad copy and paste.  Then they are never going to want to touch it again.

Not to mention look at how the average person buys stuff, impulsively w/ a credit card.

With btc, you have to go through a ridiculous process to buy it ahead of time, then still go buy something with it, and the most legit place I've found (coinbase) you still have to wait 4 business days to see the coins, and just hope the exchange rate doesn't drop on you.

Anyway I agree with your points, and have seen some really good posts by you in the past.  thanks for your insight.

Yep, and you get these conglomerate fascist corps that rise up from someones bedroom like coinbase / mtgox ... and they just start robbing people however they like and when the smoke clears they walk away with a countless people's lunch money.

Sure, bitcoin could fall hard to double digits. Your conjecture is as good as anyone else's, but I personally don't find such low figures very likely. In my un-mathemagical estimation, I place the bottom somewhere around $250. I'm not predicting it will go that low, but that is the lowest I believe it would. Despite some here "knowing" that bitcoin is bust, only time will tell and prove one arbitrary guess more accurate than another. Your reasoning, however, is what I find more interesting...


Since when does wall street wear their hearts on their sleeves? They show you what they want you to see. Personally, I'm more likely to take wall street's claimed positions and favor the diametric perspective.


And these things make me feel even better about bitcoin. Average joe and the smart ass on the street have historically never been good indicators of innovative potential or financial success options. You're referring to people that are remarkably behind the curve in such an extreme way, that by the time they finally do come around to understanding and practicing within a given paradigm shift, the opportunity for financial investment in the catalyst is long over. All those shouting bitcoin is already mainstream, don't understand what the hell they are saying -not even close.


Institutions invested. Yes. Speculators looking for a quick buck. Definitely. Cultists with blinders hoping for unrealistic realities. Of course. Opportunists. Manipulators. Leaders. Lemmings. Look at any technologically innovative point in time in which the human species has created something they haven't seen before, and you'll find the exact same people at the party.


And that is all that's needed to change the world.

As long as you can't buy crack cocain and xtc by the barrel internationally with moneyoder/debitcard/creditcard without getting caught, bitcoin has unprecedented potential. :)

this post got deleted as its own topic, but i did spend quite a bit of time creating it, so I will post it here i guess:

https://i.imgur.com/ALwg2Dn.png

Oh no.. This one again? Same old news..

It's fun to see my oneliner being quoted so many times :)

Don't expect Bitcoin to be worldwide over night. Look at mobile phones, banking system, internet, etc. it will take a good few years (atleast 5-10) to get the infrastructure up and running in the developed parts of the world. As long as the technology remains to have traction it will come.

Bitcoin has potential and the infrastructure is being built as we speak. It will survive as long as nobody (governments) forcefully try to kill it.

http://i.ytimg.com/vi/RtWT0TJKOKk/maxresdefault.jpg

Interesting how the trolls die down during upswings. If i didn't know better I'd say they had an agenda...

I felt bad posting all week, but I just can't help but let you guys know, how WRONG you've been.

What reasons might there be for a bounce?

none, he just said it as a permabull hoping to get rich quick

Guess what happens when a bubble really pops?  It goes back to where it was before... which was sub $30.  Before GOX manipulated the market.

Any time I've said this people called me a conspiracy nut. Nice prediction 5 weeks ago, hope you got out.

After I read the willy report I have never looked back, got out and won't return before price reflects reality. Triple digits are most likely (soon) a thing of the past. I made a promise to myself that I would not buy back in before the end of the year. It has worked out great. Try to have a plan ppl. Don't be a bagholder because u worship Rpietila (calling the bottom, lol) or some other fool.

These people are so ignorant.  How do you not ignore the mountains of lies told by MTGOX, the largest exchange?  I mean when it went from $5 to $33 overnight and then back to $2.... that was one of the 1st signs of trouble as well as the earliest miners linked to the creation of MTGOX.  Then MTGOX stopped cashing people out and stole and lied and stole and lied and manipulated market and lied and only allowed bitcoins in not out etc etc etc.  The whole time with the LARGEST volume out there.

For heavens sakes, Mark Karpeles owns the domain bitcoin.com ... i mean how early do u have to be to claim that domain?  You've gotta be like the 1st 5 to ever heard of BTC to be claiming that domain.  I heard about btc in 2011 and got some really good domains, but all the really really good ones were long taken by then.

The dust is going to settle, and it is settling.

Thanks Xiaoxiao for the tip.

Managed to get out at around $400. To bad I didn't listened earlier to your advice :(

You're welcome.  In December, I quoted the legendary Gordon Gekko when he warned about the housing/credit crisis of 08 in the movie wall street.

That was actually my 1st warning.

Yes, I remember. I think a lot of people listen to your advice, but either don't write here/give credit back.

It seems that the bulls were the scammers after all.

I dont know about scammers, they just deluded themselves into believing these price spikes were naturally occuring and not the product of manipulation by mt gox and other exchsnges.  They will keep calling bears stupid while they hold and tell themselves they are the "stronger hands"

And if GOX, an exchange that was the largest and trusted by many was capable of this, who knows how many others are just shaking the market like an apple tree.  After all 90% of bitcoins is owned by less than the number of fingers and toes we have.

I know. Just think what will happen when the next exchange goes down ( maybe btc-e) which is notoriously shady?? Looks like we are headed nowhere but down.

Soon you will see all these companies who are doing schemes... This always happens when money flows out of markets. " When the tide goes down you see who is swimming naked" Learn from Bernie Madoff incident!

"...they just deluded themselves into believing these price spikes were naturally occuring and not the product of manipulation by mt gox and other exchsnges."

Even if this were 100% true and whales bought up half the coins on the run-up to hook some fish, they put bitcoin even more on the map in giant bold letters by doing so.  They can't stop the eventual adoption of bitcoin.  Each market swing ends up higher than the one before.  But they can manipulate markets to try and profit on the pumps and dumps in order to accumulate at a discount.

After all 90% of bitcoins is owned by less than the number of fingers and toes we have.

Blatantly False.   ::) Top 98 addresses hold 16% of mined coins.  Which is still a very big cut for being an early adopter, although nowhere near the numbers you're bluffing with. And at most, Satoshi might hold 1 Million coins.  That would represent 4% of all bitcoins that will ever be mined. A well deserved reward if you ask me. But nowhere near 90%


http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html (http://bitinfocharts.com/top-100-richest-bitcoin-addresses.html)

Research pays.

im tankign with this ship or goign to the moon with the rocket.
surely not selling.

We are not at 30$ yet, there are many reasons for the price to be in the range of 200-400$ considering it could go to 5000$ and more when the mass adopt Bitcoin

be first to hear this from me, bitcoin will go back to $1.00

$200-$400 is a very broad range.  :)

it's happening again, the drop....

Some days before, you gave a chance of 10% that it will go to sub 50.-
And now? I still see a lot of blahblah; 'predictions' without dates.

 ;D

We will haven't even gone sub $200?

You not will see it even go sub $200?

What?

unobtanium, that's less inflationary and also less overbought. also not so expensive to run.

 ;D

Xiaoxiao has never been so close to being right since his prediction! Hopefully the price will not go down more.

Hopefully it will! I have some more money to pour in @ sub 100.

I take back the fact I said sub $50, I was trying to be a bit funny, bold, and exaggerated, but the gist of my theory and post have all come true. It will be at sub $200 again and stabilize there.

Bumping to show precision of predictions.

How far sub-200 are we talking here? 189 is sub-200, and so is 75.

Like you said its only intelligent people that get into Bitcoin now because they get it, just like in the early days only intelligent people understood the power of the internet. Let those dumb fucks adapt. It will take 10 years or so, enjoy the ride.

Sub $200 will take a lot of miners out.  Can the big farms even sustain below $150?

I don't deny there's always a group hoping to make quick and all it matters to them is making money and apart from that anything concerning development of bitcoin means nothing to them. However put aside this group there's still us who truly believes in the future of bitcoin and no matter what will continue to support. And that is why bitcoin is still here to stay.

It would put them out, but not indefinetly, because the difficulty would eventually lower back down due to fewer number of hashing power, and
it would once again be profitable to mine.
I believe the big mining operations owners are quite interested in bitcoin, so the profitablility in negative would just make them store coins for future use , and
the mining should continue. However i dont see bitcoin going below 150 ever again, reasons for that to happen would have to be catastrophic failiure, and that is not likely to happen.

cheers