Bitcoin Forum

I am wondering...what if there is no "final capitulation"?

Here in speculations board we use to see bitcoin just from the trading perspective...
most of people try to use tools and words that suit for the usual trading case...but bitcoin is different...

it's new (still)
it's deflationary (!!!)
the demand is growing
sooner or later people will not "sell" bitcoins to fiat because there is no need to

is there a product that is similar to this that can be taken as something to compare to?

anyway ... the market outside of bitcoin doesn't care about where in the trading curve we are...a newbie just buy or doesn't buy....since people who don't buy don't matter for bitcoin...people who buy usually just buy...
especially newcomers don't have a good knowlegde of trading and buy because it looks cheap or the buddy or someone else was recommending it

so unless we don't see a huge drop of about 100$ they propably don't care and buy in anyway

i mean if whatever bears try to do is more or less balanced by newcomers and people who are positive about bitcoin in the near future...we could get out of this without a "final capitulation"

EDIT: fallling will be deleted as soon as i see a post of him

Nobody knows if there will be a capitulation or not....

But...

Bitcoin is not new... it is from 2009. It is as new as the Iphone 3.
Bitcoin is currently not deflationary. 3600 bitcoins are mined daily. The current inflation rate is above 10%. Come back in 10 years
Demand is not growing, otherwise we would go up. Supply is growing as more people are selling than buying.
People will always need fiat for rent, taxes, food. Only if you believe Bitcoin will be the sole currency in future this might be the case. This is in my view highly unlikely...

New to the masses...Smartphones & Touchscreens (and tablets...) were much older than the iphone...also apple already had a brand to build on...bitcoin startet from zero...most of the people haven't even heard of bitcoin...if you want it to compare with the iphone: we are more at the time where symbian os was popular amongst people who wanted to do more with their mobile phone...you premise that bitcoin is already as popular as the iphone...it isn't yet

that's true...there are already discussions in the board about this point...so there is no final statement here at this time...

actually fewer are selling...they are also selling the same amount otherwise we would go down (the dumping weeks before was also not a mass leave of bitcoin)...demand is increasing slowly but steady...only traders keep the price down...we would not be at moon level of course...but we could be back at 550 somewhere

people also needed fiat to buy anything...adoption is rising...i could get drunk in vienna with bitcoins (there is one bar yet)...taxes is a different thing...but a lot of things can already be bought with bitcoin

Bitcoin has been all over the press during the last a few month. Everyone who reads the newspapers or watches the news has heard about bitcoin. Even by speaking to people, most have heard about it. (At least in the western world) Asking people if they want to buy some coins, nobody is interested. This has been very different in 2011, 2012 and 2013...

I don´t think that traders hold the price down. It is the early adaptors who are now able to spend their coins for luxury goods. All the merchant adoption is nothing else than an early adaptor tax evasion scheme. If they cash out in fiat the taxmen will come and want his share... very difficult to do that with your new plasma... Merchants sell their coins instantly adding to the selling pressure.

Don´t get me wrong, I am a big fan of bitcoin but it has appreciated a lot in a very short time frame. Reminds me of the Nasdaq and the Neuer Markt in 1999-2000. In my view the bubble has not deflated yet. I am a buyer in the high two digit, very low three digit price range, not scared to miss any train. I´ve made my profit and still have a few coins...

Given that we have a daily supply of 3600 coins, we need 1,7 Mio USD new fiat per day just to absorb the inflation. To me it looks that there is more supply than demand, otherwise we would go up...

To come back to the question of capitulation. If it is not coming to release some air out of the bubble, we will, in my view, see an ongoing constant decline of prices.

What if this is the final capitulation?

I guess we just have different opinions on this...in Europe most of the people have no idea...everyone i talked to and knew at least something connects bitcoin only to silk road...they didn't even knew about mt. gox
i also see the more interesting markets in south america, africa and asia (also the places where a lot of marketing is going on these days)

ok your whole point is about the daily supply of the 3600 coins
if every minute 10 people all over the world buy bitcoins worth of 100$ you have 1.44 mio usd...that's 14.400 new people every day or 5,256,000 in one year who only bought in for 100$

No, my whole point is not only about the daily supply of 3600 coins.
It is about merchants selling coins instantly, Early adopters cashing out, not many new people buying and the daily supply.

Some things you can add to the list:
- More SR coins will be auctioned in the future
- Bitfinex credit bubble
- Downtrend
- Slow confirmations, have you ever bought something with bitcoin ?
- Thin order books on exchanges

-Not every merchant is selling instantly...some do...some don't - there is also the possibliity of an instant buyback (coinbase?)
-Auctions will be a good opportunity for HUGE whales
-credit bubble...ähhhm no    https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=667105.0
-downtrend...this is what this thread is about...what if the downtrend is stopping without the capitulation
-slow confirmations ... still MUCH faster than a bank transfer...also there is a lot of money in silicon valley to solve problems like this

the other points are just a matter of time
and when it comes to selling...i already said...we would not stop here more selling than buying

A small correction, plasma is 2013, OLED is 2014. Panasonic have (unfortunately) stopped making plasmas.
While I agree that early adopters spending BTC does depress the price, I am not convinced that it is significant now.
It may have been significant in February, when they saw the uptrend break. I would like to see some verifiable data that
clarifies this, how much BTC spending adds to the miners' selling pressure. It would help understand the long term price evolution.
As for capitulation, we are within it since the 5th June, but due to the hodling mentality we haven't dropped much yet.

If the demand is growing faster than the supply, the price increases.  That is one of the most fundamental concepts in economics, and the basic tenet of free market economy.

Not all economy, mind you.  Not planned economies like Soviet Russia, for instance.

Are you a Communist, Comrade? >:(

Do you understand how Bitcoin works?  Faster confirm times = different coin.

it could be true that we are already in capitulation phase...

i meant what if the "blood on the streets" will not happen this time

it's doesn't always have to be a pandemic world wide desaster

i already said in another thread that i think the price is kept down by traders to buy in cheaper or to win some time for COIN or whoever

there will be workarounds...what are you thinking? the way we use bitcoin now will stay forever? lol
what do you think do all the bitcoin start ups do? building new exchanges and atms?
this is just the beginning...

the internet also evolved but is still the internet...

I see that you're not a Communist--you simply don't understand free market economy.

What you are describing is almost a metaphysical impossibility.
Unless everyone with money to spare is in cahoots, simply buying BTC at its artificially low price will result in higher prices.  See supply and demand.

If you are posting this simply because you are invested up to the gills and are worried, don't.  This just reeks of desperation.

I'm a Bitcoiner myself.  I hold Bitcoin--not as much as I once did, but certainly enough not to wish its price to tank.
I just think that shilling Bitcoin only harms it in the long run.
The people who bought into the hype and bought @$1k are certainly not our friends.

I'm thinking you don't understand why confirm times are what they are.  Please explain and prove me wrong :)

listen...i personally have no idea how it will be possible in the near future to just go into a shop and buy something with bitcoin and leave in the next minute...but there will be a solution to this...in this point cash or credit card is superior to bitcoin....but i say it again...there will be a solution...if i come up with an idea i will make a start up ... raise some vc money and will tell you about it

^Sure, theoretically one could start with a sow's ear and turn it into a silk purse.  One could also make stone soup.

Do I need to explain why couture purse makers aren't driving up the price of sow's ears, and why five-star restaurants don't buy stones by the truckfull?

*If you don't understand how purses are made, it's smarter not to lecture on purses.  Same with soup.  Same with Bitcoin.

Actually it seems more like people are buying, but in much smaller volumes than the lesser number of people and organizations who are selling large chunks.

The price seems to generally rise when volumes are low and fall with large dumps from whales.

Just an observation.

still this has nothing to do with the topic...

anyway...most people don't consider the confirmation time as a problem...maybe it's not for the fast buy yet...but we will get there one way or another...in every other case it's faster than fiat or bank transfer

this...basically said that a little more on the top of this thread

You bring it up--I correct you, that's all.

Re. fiat confirm time:  I don't do bank transfers to buy gas, a cup of coffee or a pack of smokes--there are fiat alternatives :)  I use cash and CC.  Always assumed everyone was familiar with those IRL game mechanics.

Stop trying to paint Bitcoin as the solution to everything.
It isn't the answer to meatspace microtransactions.  It also doesn't unclog toilets, or make your kids dance while it makes you money--but it doesn't have to.

It also doesn't need pimping or hype.

i never said it's the solution to everything...there is a long way to go...
also i use cash not that often (only if cards are not accepted)...and i buy most of my stuff from the internet...(except stuff i need immediately)...i also order food online

i don't know what you mean with pimping or hyping...am i doing this? all i did was taking your response and clearing up why you are wrong or what my thoughts are...
it wasn't even my intention to talk about this topics here...there are many threads about that subjects...

why can't you stay on topic?

Let me quote the points which you consider to be on topic, since you have listed them in your first post.


Meh.  2009.  Not sure how this is either a plus or a minus.  Dogecoin is newer :D


As others have pointed out, that's not currently true.  The coin mined by the miners is inflation, many times that of US dollar inflation.  Bitcoin will not become deflationary until 2140, when the last coin is mined.   In other words, so wrong it's embarrassing (!!!)


I have already responded:

Is there anything topical I have missed?

Indeed it is new. And this scares some people away for different reasons. Some people don't want go experimental with money, o are afraid that things goes wrong.

Bitcoin is not deflationary in any sense. 3600 new BTC everyday(monetary inflation), and the BTC purchase power something goes down too(its happening now), so no guarantee about price deflation too.

The volume is much lower than from months ago, both considering money equilavent or Bitcoins. At least on exchanges. Or it is not totally accurate or people are boicoting exchanges.

Taxes still will have to be paid with money. And Bitcoin is new, so acceptance won't be universal and Bitcoin won't be used everywhere, so cash out will be needed.


And I think it is possible higher demand with fall in price, if the demand is to use Bitcoin as mean of payment(that is, people buy it, transfer it and sell it, and not hold it), and not as finantial reserve.

sorry...if you just want to troll around i have to ignore you

so basically you are saying the exact same things that NotLambchop said...and also ignored my questions...
a) What if there is no capitulation?
b) What products are there that can be compared to Bitcoin considering the actual market situation

If there is no further drop, but we go up, the last significant drop will be labeled 'capitulation'. The determination is made after the fact, after all.

that is what i mean...especially long term bitcoiners say there is not enough blood and despair yet...but i think that that is not needed

so basically we will know in a few weeks

This forum is loaded with despair  8)

well it's a rollercoaster from despair to climax

i like the moments most when i start to sing and dance (but i don't need bitcoin for that :) )

Fastcoin has 12second blocks... 

That must be really secure coin. :)