Bitcoin Forum

As the price slides inexorably lower remember why you bought bitcoin in the first place.

The market manipulators are trying to shake out weak hands. It is no coincidence the bear trolls come out to play as the price weakens (but curiously disappear as the price rises).

Technically as long as bitcoin doesn't drop below 440 this is noise. Even if it does dip lower or even briefly touches 3xx a high volume reversal there will signal the final bottom is in.

Remember it is in no one's interest, not the holders, not the miners, not even the sell and hope to buy lower crowd for the bitcoin price to collapse.

If bitcoin was a good buy at 600 then its an even better buy at 460.

It takes balls of steel to hang on in a bear market like this.   Bitcointalk is littered with posts from people who sold out in 2011, 2012, 2013 only to miss out on the next surge. In every case hanging on or buying more paid off handsomely. In every case the bears and trolls were wrong.

The market will turn soon..

stop finding excuses, admit the fact that bitcoin is going to nowhere but down! lower and lower cheaper and cheaper!

buy more = lose more

What a dishonest illiterate wretched creature you are! ;)

since most of this forum has him on ignore, if you feel the urge to converse with it, can you at least not quote it? thanks.

Apologies. 'This user is currently ignored' seems to be outnumbering real users at the moment. Free speech is important but it would be brilliant if the forum just deleted users once a certain ignore threshold is reached..

I learned to just accumulate bitcoins and hold them because sooner or later they will be valued much more than now.

It probably wouldn't do any good, judging by the number of alternate user names it uses.

The signs are quite obvious... the same repeated misspellings, grammatical errors and spammed FUD expressions (dead cat bounce, loose everything, etc).

What motivates this pathetic loser? Mere attention craving? Vested interest in seeing Bitcoin fail? Or more serious psychiatric issues?

I don't have it on ignore because I find it somewhat entertaining in a trashy sort of way, kinda like the Jerry Springer Show.

it sounds more like a parrot who've learnt several curses and now repeats them randomly :) I think motivations are, as always with doom trolls, is being left off the 2013 train and now dedicating their life to bashing bitcoin which hurt them.

I am very happy because Bitcoin didn't go under $400 as falllling "predicted"  :P

very soon

this is what happened back in april, i recall it having something to do with the price not breaching the point at which bitcoin miners would no longer receive a R.O.I. on the bitcoins they mine...


please verify :)

BALLS OF STEEL INDEED!

to those who think bitcoin will fail......


http://i.ytimg.com/vi/desb0W6u80Y/maxresdefault.jpg


Video below for those brave souls who want to walk funny for the next 1/2 hour after watching it!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=desb0W6u80Y

me...if it goes to $5 I'll just have more BTC..(yeah I know I need a life....but hey it takes up less room in my old age then a house full of cats!)

(I've not a clue...just along for the ride..ie we achieve orbit (moon) or we crash and burn (large splat!) ...gonna HODL and ride it out till the end..

at least the whole experience is interesting as hell.....anyway at 50 BTC intend to hold them...well hell if they are worthless some day there will
be USB in my pocket with LOTS of them....(ah my precious!) yep..drank the kool aid now I',m a BTC zombie of sorts........(ah my first cult!)

(ah to think I coulda been an epic long term baby beanie collector a decade or so back!)

FML

Searing (hey a cat...here kitty kitty)

Patience is a very important virtue in the investment world. :P

Maybe we get back below $400, maybe not. I'm still betting on $350 until I see a strong breakout to the upside. Nothing to see here, yet.

I prefer to think about it as a game of wits - I can see that you think you are taking part in some heroic epic. This speculation thing is really magic.

It really does take balls of steel to hold such a risky investment during this infancy period. That's why the ROI is much higher than your traditional financial assets. Let me do the honor to applaud all of you who aren't short sighted about the future of Bitcoin!   8)

We need to get down to ten dollars to shake out all the weak hands. Only then can the price rapidly rise to five million dollars per coin.

look, balls of steel doesn't mean steel can't be wrecked.  1st time in btc history it will not be good investment for the year.  New trend starting perhaps

All this panic and despair is great, shows we might be getting closer to the end of the downtrend. Could be good to stay off this forum for a while, though.

Should have sold at $650. Should have bought more at $12. Shoulda coulda woulda > hold.

Nuttus Indestructibales

The Latin anglicism for ultimate guts and bravado. Following from Balls of Brass (British), Balls of Steel (Duke Nukem), Balls of Titanium (Iron Man), Balls of Adamantium (Wolverine), Balls of Unobtonium, etc

http://www.monetaryhistorian.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/hold-bitcoin.png

There are people who say that the 'weak hands' or 'you need balls of steel' theory is bogus. But I think in a market that actually recovers at some point, it is true! There will be lots of people that got into Bitcoin back in November 2013 and now panic like mad. I guess a lot of them cut their losses and are now out (falllling?!?)

If we go up next year after a very long dry patch - the one we're currently experiencing, people who had those "Balls of Steel" will be the ones who are laughing! "Balls of Steel" can indeed be a good thing to actually pull through with your investment strategy, rather than emotionally trade your stash away.

I only hope that when we do go up, even those who invested in Nov 2013 make some serious money.  :)

Used in hip replacements.   8)

Hopefully we won't be waiting that long :)

Stop the hate man. Its each individuals decision. If bitcoin recuperates and skyrocket its way to the top. You will surely cry.

well WTF am I missing here ebay/paypal announces they are gonna take Bitcoin and usd price has dropped to $466 wtf am I missing here..jeez

(perhaps hoarding cats is the answer in my old age rather then BTC...btc is a cruel bitch ..i'm getting no loving right now...) :)

Searing

the more businesses "accept" bitcoin (immediately dump it on exchanges via market sells), the more it will crash.

well to be expected the more i deal with bitcoin the more i realize what farmers go thru same cycle

Searing

Its up to $470 + right now. Maybe we are all wrong.

If it goes up then we still HOLD. Maybe up to $1000.

If bitcoin goes up even $600, I will sell. Really, I will sell.

In this way you will miss the rise to 3000$, just howl and wait.

Ian quite confident that as soon as we get back to $700-$800, we will also soon approach a new All Time High. That's when everyone (even or especially bears) go into bubble mode and will ride that rocket.

Oh really? You believe that? Bitcoin to $3000? Hmmmm.. 2-3 years maybe..

What you're missing is that ebay/paypal hasn't announced that they are going to take bitcoin. Once they do actually announce they will be accepting bitcoin it might be a different story, but until it actually happens I wouldnt hold my breath.

There are only two really valuable things in this universe: Energy and information. And Bitcoin users have shown our conformity in using this protocol and use the internet as a support to keep that valuable information. HOLD.

A paypal subsidiary called braintree will probably use bitcoin a a mobile phone payment option, but ebay/paypal is not considering bitcoin at the moment.

It is true that you do need balls of steel when it comes to bitcoin. You need to have the balls to be able to invest no matter what is happening and how much the price is dropping and to know that sooner or later that price will soon making a turning point and may just increase. It's always wise to invest what you know you can afford but never be afraid to as you may regret it if things do change!

+1, I for couldn't agree more with the OP.  It's not like this is new to anyone who whatces the other altcoins.  The price falls and people lose interest then once no one it looking the price rockets up and people that sold kick themselves.  If you beleive in Bitcoin you should be buying some right regardless of what the price is doing.  The hard part is hodling in my opinion.  :)

Risk what you can afford to lose and you will never regret it is the only way, just my 2 satoshi's

the ceo of ebay has been considering BTC for about a year, he likes btc a lot. pay pals reluctance is what has kept it from going through. they have a monopoly over ebay they don't want to give up. likely paypal sees its only a matter of time and is trying to position themselves as middleman in the setup.

Overly fanatics.. Come down here.. in reality.. There will be no way bitcoin will rise up to $3000. No way. Dont get your hopes up.

Last year no one thought it would reach 266. Then no one thought it could ever reach 1200. Now after the market is working off that exuberance and coins are being distributed from short term speculators to long term holders eventually supply will dry up once again.

How high will it go this time? Hint: most of the forum seems to be expecting it to plummet to 200-350.

eBay adopting BTC would result in increased sell pressure, hence falling prices. The PayPal announcement had the same effect. New merchants accept BTC all the time, and price keeps falling.

You do understand that consumer adoption follows media exposure, right?

So, just to eliminate any doubt in my mind, since last year we had:
1.  Increasing media exposure.
2.  Increasing adoption.
3.  Falling exchange rate.

∴  If (1) and (2) continue, the exchange rate is going to continue on its present trajectory, i.e. falling.

???

pretty sure i didn't say anything about what ebay accepting bitcoin would do to the price. just pointing out how whatshisface was lying about how ebay was not considering using bitcoin. maybe learn to read before replying?

I don't remember using the word price in that sentence.

I would say personally that adoption is lagging compared to merchant integration, and speculators are selling more than buying resulting in us being at the bottom of a bear market. I think merchant adoption is actually largely irrelevant to the price at current levels of trade.

User adoption is rising and once the price turns and heads back up past 800 a new larger tranche of users will discover how easy it is to buy, save and use bitcoin. They and you will drive the next bubble. As you well know it is a price cycle - not a strict mathematical formula.

Your points would have been equally valid last year after the run to 266 and dive to 60, for a time. Shortly afterward they became very wrong indeed, as I suspect they will again.

It's different this time, since we no longer have Gox manipulating the price, pulling the rest of the market in its direction. There won't be a new rally.

You're right, and I'm sorry. I should've replied to inca or another bull.

It's different this time, eh? Ha.

I don't remember using the word "price" in this entire thread.  What made you bring it up?


Are you saying that user adoption is driven by the price (higher BTC exchange rate will cause greater adoption), and not vice versa?  If so, I'd say you're in the minority.


I posted a list of [what I believe to be facts], (1) through (3), and a conclusion following from the premise that BTC exchange rate was in a causal relationship with (2).

Like so:
A -> B
~B
A
∴ ~(A -> B)

...so not sure what you mean by "your point."  What point do you think I'm trying to make?

I am posting this from an ipad so apologies for formatting.

Exchange rate = price. Hence the mention.

Your argument seems to be: continued bitcoin media exposure together with rising adoption equals a falling price. Therefore bitcoin is going to continue falling.

Now since the price previously topped that correlation exists. Correlation does not equal causation. Simply widening your timeframe tells a different and opposite story where the price has risen instead.

^Gotcha.  Neither one of us thinks that there is a causal relationship between user adoption and BTC exchange rates.
We agree that all arguments extrapolating higher BTC exchange rate because greater adoption are nonsense.

We're good.  Sorry about the misunderstanding.

There may be no direct causal relationship. But a hugely rising (or falling) number of users transacting in bitcoin will obviously exert pressure on the exchange price. :)

I think my original point was that it is pretty hard to adopt something you have never heard of. Ergo, increasing media coverage of bitcoin, seeing that little b sign at dell or (soon to be) paypal or uber will pique the interest of joe public, eventually contributing to increasing adoption.

You know all this but have a bearish position so argue against it. But that is ok :)

I'm bearish, but I'm also not shorting.  I honestly haven't been able to read BTC market like I once could.  So if forced to TL;DR, I'd say:

The bulk of BTC users are speculators. 
BTC exchange rate is ultimately determined by their sentiment and trading strategies.<==seems self-evident to me
Over the last year, bigger, tougher, smarter kids started playing in our sandbox.
I can't compete--trading I do now amounts to little more than gambling.

Something like that.

Do you mind me asking if you are holding bitcoin or sat on the sidelines in cash?

Interesting that you feel the market movements have changed in some way due to new participants, especially as volatility has reduced?

I suppose the price is ultimately determined by supply and demand. That is supply from miners, genuine sellers and speculators, versus demand from new and veteran consumer buying. The shifts in balance determine the short term price trends. In such a thinly traded market my view is also that currently sentiment is hugely important as speculation probably has a major role in price discovery*.

That said, overall mining supply and consumer demand should drive the price in the longer term which is evident in charts going back several years. Will it continue? I think so.

I am not bothered particularly by short term volatility in the price otherwise I would have sold long ago (and been considerably better off from my bitcoin holdings). The very fact that silicon valley is rapidly integrating bitcoin into everything for what is really a tiny global userbase tells me big business wants bitcoin to succeed.

* i am very busy with my day job but i have for a long time wanted to create a script to scrape the this forum and perform some sentiment analysis to generate some statistics to compare with the exchange rate and google trends etc.

Not at all, but how would you interpret the answer considering that speculation is a competitive, not cooperative, game? :D (But it's "both," as I'm sure is the case with most people here.)
I hold less BTC than I once did, take that for what it's worth (zilch).


You would expect the volatility to increase?  Why?  It takes a much smarter trader to make money in a market with low volatility.


The problem is the supply/demand relationship is biconditional, A <-> B.  Bitcoin has little intrinsic value.  The value of 1 BTC would be close to nothing if there was no user base, no Bitcoin network.  The network effect cuts both ways--a telephone set's value grows when more people get phones, but it drops when fewer people have them.
Agreed?


If I thought so too, and was reasonably sure of it, holding BTC long-term would be a no-brainer.  It's obviously not (for me).


Big business sees potential profits in Bitcoin.  This doesn't translate into "big business wants Bitcoin to succeed" (for me).


Would be neat, any specific ideas on what sort of data you'll be looking for?  I wouldn't know where to start.

Thanks for the replies. I am curious. Are you saying you don't think consumer demand is sufficient to drive bitcoin (price) longterm? Why? For me this is still a no-brainer. If only 1 million people are actively using it then even if the project fails to go mainstream it likely will run further than this. It seems to me that infrastucture is only now beginning to blossom and develop. More on and off ramps are appearing all the time which will facilitate adoption potentially.

I am not sure of there being any real distinction between big business seeing potential profits by adopting bitcoin and big business supporting bitcoin and wanting it to succeed. Bitcoin is cheaper per transaction than a credit card, whilst delivering the actual payment within minutes. Isn't it obvious that a company will implement anything that will significantly reduce transaction costs and increase profits? What is amazing is that major companies such as dell, expedia, newegg etc have implemented bitcoin when the userbase is so incredibly tiny - really a speck on their balance sheets. That makes me think that big business actually wants bitcoin to succeed - i could be wrong.

Yes the construction of a sentiment index is a fun concept. Don't have much time to go into it further now but would probably have to be a scraping spider which analysed the threads on the front page and posts within the forum. I know someone who designed a similar tool for another market and sold it to a hedge fund so several probably exist for this forum already. Another poster speculated that could be the reason for the endless trolling accounts on here.

Yes, if we start with the following premises:
  A.  The current exchange rate is the product of consumer demand, and not speculation.  By "consumers" I mean the people using Bitcoin as money, not to speculate on its long-term worth.
  B.  The demand will continue to increase.

I'm saying neither (A) nor (B) are necessarily true, (A) partially due to supply/demand being kinda misused in the case of Bitcoin.
Think about it like this:

1.  A baker bakes cakes.
2.  You like delicious cakes, they're delicious.
3.  There are others who like delicious cakes.
4.  The baker keeps raising his cake price until, when he closes up for the night, he has no leftover cakes, but just barely.*

Classic supply/demand relationship, right?

Here's the good part:  (2) above could be seen as a constant.  The cake is just as delicious (and desirable) regardless of what the baker charges.  If the baker doubles his price, you are not going to want the cake twice as much, right?  

Not so with Bitcoin.
To a speculator, 1 BTC is twice as valuable when its exchange rate doubles.  That's why it's important that most Bitcoin holders are speculators and not typical consumers like cake_eaters.
See my point?

TL;DR:  Bitcoin is not goods.  It has neither intrinsic value nor is it subject to the classic supply/demand interpretations.

...

---

*assuming that selling out every day = max profit, not necessarily true if there are cake addicts, let's say, who'll pay anything for their pastry fix.  But that's a tangent.
edits...

I would argue that the average user who is interested in buying bitcoin solely to spend, has absolutely no idea what the exchange rate of a bitcoin should be.  It could be $5, it could be $500, they wouldn't know the difference.  They only know that the price has gone up over time. I.E., they (will?  should?) buy at whatever the current rate is, because they assume that the market has set the price correctly.

But the problem is that their speculator friends will say, "Oh, no, you shouldn't buy now... have you see the decline lately?  Wait for a better price."  This 'waiting for a better price' of course defeats the whole purpose of buying bitcoin for its immediate use as a spending vehicle, or currency.  What constitutes a "better price"?  A 5% drop? 10% drop? 30% drop?  If no one knows what the price should be anyway, then it's really ridiculous notion.

It's like someone shopping for a gold engagement ring, and their best friend going "Oh no, you shouldn't buy a gold ring now... have you seen the decline in gold price lately? Wait for a better price."  And then the shopper is like, "Damn dude, I'm getting married here.  How long should I wait?  I can't wait forever.  In fact, I shouldn't even care what the current price is."   :D

I speculate bitcoin will at one point be used by countries to conduct trade.

It's not *that* simple, "Speculators" implies some fraction who are in it for short term fiat profits.

As the price of bitcoin rises there is a corresponding increase in the likelihood of a speculator deciding to sell.

I'd say it very much is a product of supply & demand, given there is a limited supply and variable demand.

Only fiat is not subject to supply and demand, as there is effectively an infinite supply.

Really?  I haven't met anyone like that since SilkRoad got shuttered.  Most places accepting Bitcoin set their prices in dollars, so the folks you're talking about should care about the exchange rate :D

But that's not my point.  My point is Bitcoin exchange rate is determined by traders, which [to me] is obvious.  Those weird ones who don't care about the exchange rate, other than being ..."unusual," have little to do with exchange rate.

It's not simple, but speculators don't need to be daytraders.  Many hodlers on this forum, the ones speculating on exchange rate going to the moon, are hoarding and holding.  They contribute to the "scarcity," but not in the same way a consumer would.

And even day traders, for the time they're in bitcoin, aren't essentially different from long-term holders.  The only difference is the timespan.
The speculators who are in it for Bitcoin, not fiat profit, simply buy BTC low and sell high, thus amassing more coin.  The unit of account is whatever you chose.

I've been predicting a $4,000 BTC since 2011.  Just sayin'.

I disagree. Bitcoin is already becoming an extremely useful currency through utility. But the main strengths of bitcoin are its monetary properties and scarcity. People who buy and hold it do so knowing this. There is no consumer or speculator, they are one and the same. It is a happy side effect that the first 50 million people into the the bitcoin sphere will likely make significant gains on there initial investment. Whilst adoption continues the price must rise until like your baker there is an equilibrium where all the users of bitcoin are already using it, it has become distributed and the exchange price is stable. Bitcoin has no intrinsic value but is going to work exceptionally well as a future store of value with bouts of likely extreme volatility.

Wait, did you miss this?  If you disagree with something, feel free to point it out.  Simply saying "there is no difference" is no better than saying NO U!1!

Explain your point more clearly please :)

I try to be as clear as possible on the first pass.  What, specifically, would you like to have clarified?

just how tasty was the cupcake, did it have some rum in it?

I take your example to mean that the bitcoin price is a product of consumer/speculator demand. But that also consumer/speculator demand is also a product of the price? Unlike the baker scenario.. And that falling bitcoin prices may in fact reduce demand for bitcoins?

Pure yumolium.  As long as you don't ruin it with Mc.D coffee.  That stuff is undrinkable, and I buy those gigantic "40 Miler" styrofoam cups at exit ramp gas stations and never complain.
If you HAVE TO buy Mc.D coffee, either cut it with 1/3rd milk, or ask for a cup of ice, pour off 1/4 of the coffee, and dump the ice in.  (Mc.D ice cubes taste just like their water--awful.  But it's the same awful all across US.  I suspect it's a special additive they use to make their water boil at 200 degrees C, and make their coffee possible.

In the same sense as special relativity suggests that light is fast, yeah.

i drink black coffee.

 Mc.D coffee??  NEVER AGAIN!!

Alright Einstein!

I think you may have missed my meaning there.  The key phase is "should be".

I didn't say they didn't care what the exchange rate was, I said that they essentially have no way of knowing if the current exchange rate is even correct or a fair price.  It's because bitcoin is so new, lacks anything to back it, and doesn't have a multi-hundred year assessment period like say, gold or silver.  Most of the general public think that bitcoin is vastly overvalued, and could fall back to double or even single digits literally any day now.  In fact, they don't see why it wouldn't.

You're right that speculation primarily keeps the price afloat.  It's the occasional ramp ups (er bubbles, whatever) during this growth period that give the public a clue that maybe they are wrong about bitcoin being vastly overvalued.

Well, at this point people really need to decide what they're willing to risk, and ultimately to loose. But after they've decided what to keep in the Game, they really need to just ignore the price, and just have those said balls. Sometimes you've got to ride through the rough patch...

What exactly is the 'report to moderator' link for?  In any moderated forum action would have been taken long ago, but AFAICT this place is completely unmoderated...

(EDIT: despite claims that there are in fact moderators here - given the level of drivel posted here I find it hard to believe they  really  exist)

There will be trolls wherever you go.. :) The thing is you just need to ignore.

Being a troll has become a normal attitude of people.

yeah I mined with a jupiter knc 550gh from last year (50 coin) it needs to hit below $150 usd for me to start hurting..then again to be fair I got a NO ROI 1st Batch
Titan..if it does ??? actually as they state ..can do scrypt N (and not for some reason 50mh scrypt n vs 300mh scrypt) ...perhaps I can get 3/4 ROI back...anyway
with that figured in (hey I got it no refund in march 2014..then right after KNC went the BFL route of lets make more $$$ ..honest I did not mean to turn them to
the dark side with my order..but hey it happened....ie I was BFL'd..money corrupts)

anyway you add that into the mix and if it goes below $350 usd and I'm in trouble..but then again...if it does go to $150 I'll ride it all the way down

WTF have to have something to talk about when they take all my stuff anyway and wheel me in to the assisted living place someday right?

but yeah this is painful to watch imho it will go below 400 at least

This patch is getting rougher and rougher. :)

Agreed. Why do you have to say that?

Someone necroed my thread. Great song and band btw.

I think the original post remains true. Balls of steel still required holders.

I am still accumulating as many coins as I can. Feel free to join me! :)

Holders require balls of steel.  ;D
This roller coaster will ensure that only true believers end up holding bitcoins, when all this volatility ends.

yeah just hoping that sometime in the distant future it is just not me and you sharing a bottle of 2013 wine toasting the end to the bitcoin last man standing club.... :) just saying

I'm holding for the long term....but quite frankly everyone that is an everyday person I've talked to thinks bitcoin is evil/scam/ripoff in the last year from all the press/banker/gov't FUD

so hell I don't think anything is gonna be normal with bitcoin till it is around 3 years from now...and is considered as boring as the paypal PAY button on ebay

just saying..not only is the price gonna stay low.(I've no clue on how low 20 bucks to 200 bucks to 1000 bucks no clue)...alt coins of any type are gonna be kicked/pissed on/lambasted and defamed by press/govt banks etc at LEAST for the next THREE years imho....irregardless of what the price of a coin does..if it survives that we will do well if all his crap being spewed out about bitcoin is taken as truth in that run of time...we will have lots and lots of bitcoin at $1 usd per bitcoin anyway...

big or bust place your money folks

or

chump or champ

there is no "inbetween' in bitcoin!

Reserve me a glass ;)

well hell..we have a movement ..that makes 3..heh :)

Count me in :)

Ball of steel is a good reason why many traders go broke.

This thread isn't for traders. It is for those holding bitcoin as a speculative long term punt. Traders can do what they want!