Bitcoin Forum

Hello,

I have been quite involved in trading and charts and I noticed that the chart of BTC and Silver share some similarities in their fractal structure. So I fitted a picture of a logarithmic chart of Silver on top of a logarithmic BTC chart.

This would imply market lows of around ~250$ per Bitcoin with uncertain outcome and more important: a significant drop relatively soon.
However charts do not necessarily need to repeat 1:1 or even at all. However, if the psychology of market participants and the market structure in general are similar the probability of a similar outcome is definitively given. Of course, if anything disruptive happens on the financial markets or cryptocurrency adoption rate the outcome could be vastly different.

https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/73829561/BTC_SILVER.png

Any opinions on that?


Best Regards,
Foerster

Yes. Don't buy. It's for your own good.

Silver is far away stronger / more reliable / more widespread use than bitcoin, bitcoin is going to nowhere but down to the final capitulation!

Nope, silver is a piece of shit dinosaur asset, Bitcoin is a revolution in humanity. You need to have a problem in the brain to not buy sub 1K bitcoin.

well yes ofcourse it goes the same way exept worse!
because bitcoin is so flawd in many ways and there is no support in the order books it will be much lower then $250

if he is a new account or not doesnt make his argument more or less valid
look at the facts and make your own conclusion
its going nowhere but down and everybody know it exept some scammers trying to steal your money by telling you to buy now before you miss the boat
talking about crazy bubbles and profits
all lies to steal your money
dont be fooled

Bitcoin and silver are totally different, even if the charts are similar it doesn't mean anything in my opinion.

You cant compare silver with btc.

There are some similarity about silver and BTC (the  coins). The mining factor weight a lot on the price.
Currently there is a dishoarding of silver keeping the price low, but it can not go under production costs because people with too much cash around just buy every dip deep enough to go under average production costs.

The same is similar with BTC. The miners slow down mining if the price go down too much and people interested in investing buy every dip under some threshold (probably mining costs).

But there are many differences:
Production/supply ratio is a lot higher for silver (around 20 years) than for BTC (around 7 years). So the price of BTC is more volatile.
There are not naked selling of BTC on the market like there are for silver and gold.
No one is able to drop 1 M BTC (naked shorts) on the market at 7 A.M. ECT like they do for silver.
On the other side, silver supply will not slow down for sure in the future, it depend on the price.
BTC is price independent. There will be just 21 Millions coin and not one more.

do you have any idea how easy it is to find fractal similarities in just about any 2 charts?

Congratulations, you've just made up found a similarity in the patterns of the charts. BTC could very well be doing the same, but there's no reason to actually believe that it's going to do that. Humans see patterns everywhere. It is what differentiates us from other animals, though.

Those are merely patterns that overlap at some points and do have common characteristics. That doesn't say anything about Bitcoin's future, to be honest... Bitcoin may go that way, but not because Silver did it!

This is why I posted the chart and asked for your opinion.
Of course there are other charts that break out to the upside at the point BTC is right now.

The bull case for Bitcoin would be:
1. lows were April-May 2014 averaging around 430$
2. right now we form higher lows around ~470$
3. next local high is >700$
This creates an upward trend.

The question is if they will continue to overlap or not?? ;)

Silver went down because something new and better came along that does not require storing huge hunks of metal all over the place.

And what is that? As long as we can't reproduce those precious metals cheaply, there'll be a demand for it. Comparing it to Bitcoin or other currencies, commodities, whatever doesn't really make that much sense, since Gold would've gone bust since the invention of currency then!

LOL at thinking Bitcoin somehow had anything to do with the silver decline  :D

Silver is Silver, and Bitcoin is Bitcoin  ::)

This.^^^   Also silver price is a very very manipulated market so the price doesn't really show the true value of silver.  Your not taking so much into consideration it's scary.  Just putting the charts on top of each other doesn't prove anything other then you think they look similar. 

There is a big difference in a fundamental. What stores online accept silver as a form of payment? Vs what stores online take Bitcoin as a form of payment? Silver may be a store of value, but will most likely never be used as a currency again unless we lose all technology.

No.

Unlike Silver, we need mining to keep the current Bitcoins usable.

Is $250 enough to make mining still profitable AND keep the network strong?

It's happening.
Next stop 370-340$.

It's just because people are buying psychology

You know JP Morgan was accused of manipulating the silver market when Blythe Masters was head of their commodities trading group.

That's wife of Daniel Masters founder of GABI fund.  "Vampire Squid"

The story is they amassed a buttload of physical silver and shorted the hell out of the futures.  Thats how they crashed the silver price

If GABI gets together their $200M fund expect the same strategy.  

All the amateurs here dont know how markets work

I traded precious metal futures and stocks for a long time.
Even the holders of some pansy ass mid-cap stock scream manipulation when the price doesn't go into their direction.
While there for sure is "manipulation" (btw. what's the definition for manipulation?? Every buy & sell, bid & ask is manipulating the price.) happening in the financial markets I know for certain that charts never lie.

When you do not have much money you can only trade passively, need to observe what the chart does, where the important levels, inflection points & divergences etc. occur and then act accordingly. This is because you are low in the food chain.

The opposite is true if you are the apex predator and have loads of cash. Then you are always! "manipulating" the market, simply because you are so big. At your buy & sell levels the price tanks or rises, you create and shape the significant levels in the order book and others need to observe this behaviour or get slaughtered.

I'am sure that the investment funds that are getting involved in crypto currencies might have incentive to try lowering the prices by fat block orders, or it might just be the case that some random people want to sell large quantities of Bitcoin and create sell pressure, but whatever it is that makes the price drop, when I observe this kind of stuff in a weak market I try to get out of the way. (Of course this is always easier said than done ;) )

I believe there are similarities in btc when compared to silver- both went through bubbles and both have hard-core hodlers/stackers that expect the price to go to the moon.

Even some of the TA out there is overly optimistic. I expect a bottom at $340 or so in the worst case, but I'm no professional. There is even a small chance we could go lower than that with sentiment the way it is.

Watch the silver market over the next couple/three months to see what a real capitulation might look like and ask yourself where is the capitulation with bitcoin? Barring exogenous events that my cause panic buying/selling.