Bitcoin Forum

It's open for everyone, there is currently a limit of 100 accounts, each account starts off with $5000 to play with, prediction questions can be submitted by anyone, I will however remove any crap that pops up.

What can this be used to predict?

I don't think this will be terribly useful for things such as share prices, as we already have a real market for that.

For things such as whether you believe a bond issuer will default on their debt, whether dividend payments will be late, or whether you think an issuer is a scammer are all valid uses.

We don't have ratings agencies for GLBSE listed securities, so we will have to rely on the wisdom of the market.

I will over time be integrating this into GLBSE proper to show an assets prediction ratings beside the listing.

Go on, sign up, it's free.

Awesome, managed to get in! :D

And you do that by waiting till the end of time I guess?


Also, we need to you to work on GLBSE plox. Focus girls!

This is a complimentary service for GLBSE users that we've bought, and has taken very little time to get going.
Go on and get some good questions up there.

So wait, this is just play money right now? It's not really useful unless we do this for real money right? :)

Awesome I definitely will be creating an account asap to work out an kinks for my organization.

Another great addition to the bitcoin open trading system.

I guess once it turns out to be working well and being in demand, there might be a "premium" version for the big boys where we can bid our "real" satoshis! 8)

It is play money for the moment, and it's very useful in predicting accurately the outcome of future GLBSE events, this is the closest thing we will get to a rating agency and is more likely to be correct than any actual rating agency, it's also about as neutral as you can get(it's a market, all it cares about is being right).

After I get the next series of updates to GLBSE pushed out I will add the ability to put bitcoins on the outcome of these events on the prediction market.

It also allows a few people who are clever but lack bitcoins to get some cred for themselves.

Snagged myself an account, I'm intrigued by this ;)

Already posted my first question.

I'm interested to see how this pans out.

You should put all times listed in the prediction market as UTC.

Who determines if the correct answer to the question?

This could be a great way to determine asset ratings.  Lots of possibilities for implementing betting and insurance into the GLBSE with this also.  I'm interested to see how it plays out.

I think it's the question creator, but when they ask the question they need to state where the information comes from, i.e. in the Bitcoin price question the answer is determined by the average price on MtGox at a specific date...or something like that.

What is the incentive the question creator has in maintaining the question?  Does the question creator get some kind of percentage of the revenue generated?

Well, got myself an account and asked two questions about the mining operation we manage (price and hashing power change). We'll see what people think.

Several questions have been approved and are active.

I believe that I also hold the power of deciding the answer of the question (as the admin). I'll be happy to hand this off to someone else who is trustworthy if this takes off (if not then I won't have to).

To give incentive to people to make questions the question maker should get a portion of any fees gained from the prediction market question they made.  It could be some kind of management fee to them.  If there is some kind of argument that needs a  higher moderator to settle the dispute, and the moderator has a decision opposite of what the question maker has, then the question maker could lose their management fee.  Also, market makers should be given some kind of incentive too.

I'll see if this sort of thing is supported.

In the meantime, enjoy trading and goodnight.

This is sweet.  Not what I expected.  For some reason I thought this was going to be more like a fake account on the glbse to play with fake shares of the actual entities, but it's actually more like crowd sourced answers to questions based on peoples thoughts, predictions, and intentions.  I like it.

Subbed, this looks like an excellent development.

I think GLBSE should build its own and not rely on Inkling

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=77265.msg866035#msg866035

From what I have read in your posts, I agree. It wouldn’t even be difficult to implement on GLBSE directly, as it could just be made another type of asset.

Very interesting!

I just looked at the prediction market for 5 minutes last night, no deep analysis by any means. Upon reading your posts, I concur. Lacking the ability to adapt to liquidity is a major weakness. On the other hand, I understand that Nefario has limited time and resources. Do any programs exist that do implement such features?

Will people be able to predict the death of others?

You can if you like but since it's currently only play money it's not going to be much of an assassination market I'm afraid.

Who did you have in mind :p

I meant once it goes for Satoshi's.  ;)

how do you handle questions that depend on a result that is different from the time of the end-date of the question?

lemme rephrase that.

i submitted


End-Date is 6/30/2012.
The *event* however is on 1/1/13.

imho there should be an option to define the date of decision, so that you (or anyone else but the submitter and the bettors) can make a decision on that date.

There are limits to what you can do with a prediction market, you kind of have to be specific with the question you ask.

I did drop you an email on account of being reminded to keep questions "bitcoin related".

I disagree with that sentiment.

This could become Bictoins betfair, what with shorting outcomes etc etc.
Keep 2% vigorish, and you're all set.

I would do it if I could, but I can't.
Would be a shame to see such an awesome system go to waste.

Have two questions pending in regards to DBL and the future of bitcoin advertisements.

I look forward to reading the results and seeing what users have to say.

Great interface btw.

I have two question currently pending in regards to the future of DBL and advertisement sector of the bitcoin economy.

Just curious as to how long before they can be released for response.

Is this thing dead now? It hasn't been resolving for me since GLBSE shifted DNS servers.

I can't access it either, though I must admit I didn't even try until I saw your post.

Hmmm, I actually didn't notice that it didn't carry over to the new DNS service. And the fact that besides yourself brendio no one else did shows that it's pretty much dead/failed as a service, concept.

Well, it's not linked anywhere from glbse.com - onlx people following numerous threads here on the forums even have a chance of knowing it exists!

maybe remove the GLBSE branding from the forums. People who dont use GLBSE ignore anything with it in the title.

Also, if you could use bitcoin on it, rather than just play money, it would have more utility.

I'm very interested in this concept,  but like anything,  it needs to be developed before people will come to use it.
I suspect there IS a demand for this.

If you build it,  we will come!

The problem with prediction markets is the market maker.  If it is automated like the one that is on the GLBSE prediction market now then it will eventually lose money.  That model is only used by places that don't use real money.