Bitcoin Forum

http://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-bitcoins-price-still-headed-10k/ (http://www.coindesk.com/tim-draper-bitcoins-price-still-headed-10k/)

I think his estimated timeframe is a bit conservative, possibly in 2 years.

Next month would be fine with me :D

draper sunk his money into a poor investment and now he is attempting to pump it so he can sell it to a "newer idiot".

don't be fooled by his biased assertion and do not buy into a false recovery!

If this is conservative or a pie in the sky, we can't possibly tell today. We could also go down from here, and Bitcoin may fail to grasp traction completely. For what it's worth, both of these scenarios are more or less equally likely. I don't even try to gauge which one may be more likely. 2 Years... could be. Could be 1 Year... But could also be never.

that's a pretty bearish prediction actually.

$10,000 is not that much to reach in 3 years given the history of bitcoin

This is true.  Each bubble has made the previous bubble look like a small blip on the all-time value chart.

If another bubble does that to the one we saw last fall, $7k-$10k is about the realm we're looking at.

Of course he's trying to pump up his 30,000 BTC investment, he lost $5mill FIAT on it since July!   :o

I believe in Bitcoin, I'm just trying to figure out why it's declined from $650 in July to $470 now, with mostly positive news, investors and entrepeneurs alike trying to jump in, and increasing adoption.

Something's holding it back besides the proposed NY Bit license regulation, I just have no idea what it is.   :(

I disagree

I see much gains in the coming years, but 10k is just not realistic, sure it can happen... but i wouldn't count on it.

Bitcoin pumper says price will go up?  :o I'm shocked.

We're pretty much left with this crap now, since they've banned and are apparently trying to extort fees from anyone who has a negative outlook.

 ::)

idiots

Pumpers gonna pump.

He'll dump his stash if we ever get back to the 700 dollar range. But we won't, so he'll eventually sell at a loss, probably when we go below 300, a couple of months from now. Poor guy.

Every time BTC has broken its previous records but $10000 in 3 years is too much optimism . $3-4k might be possible.

This reminds me of gold bagholders who bought at the top and are still hoping for $10,000 per ounce of gold.

3600 new coins are created every day. Miners have to sell a lot of those coins to pay their bills. All those huge sell orders have trouble finding buyers. The market is saturated, and this ridiculously high price can't be sustained forever. Merchants also sell their stash routinely, since it's a lot riskier holding BTC than fiat. User adoption has stagnated, to put it mildly.

In three years the value could be much more high than 10,000$.

Yes!!1 ofc what an obvious intention of Draper, well recognized  :o

omg, at first i thought he was just joking, but now that i look at his post history i realized who he really is



































































































































http://imagizer.imageshack.us/v2/xq90/835/blt7.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/IjzCkAr.jpg

The Mt Gox and silk road bitcoins are still in limbo. That could affect the price.

I would answer $10,000 in one year, or at least is what I'm hoping..

Long term support goes up more than 500% every year.

31.12.2012     $12
31.12.2013     $60
31.12.2014    $300
31.12.2015  $1,500
31.12.2016  $7,500
31.12.2017 $37,500

So Draper is really conservative. :-)

Very little attention has been payed to Bitcoin by the mainstream media since the collapse of Gox. Those of us who follow bitcoin obsessively know there has been a ton of important progress made but for the larger world, it's off the radar entirely. I often encounter people who think that Bitcoin completely died in March and are shocked to learn that it still exists and has held value.

The breakout, if it comes, will be fueled by media hype. What could cause that? Who knows.

In three years? Huh, that's a long time for $10k, I say! We'll be there much sooner!

$10k in three years sounds reasonable! I think we could get there sooner if there's a healthy climb in 2015, and we may cross the $10k in 2016 then. A bubble in 2014 seems very unlikely at this point, though...

More or less this.

The ETF will take us there in 12 months if it gets approved.

That's the reason nobody trades in paper gold  ::)

ETF will make Bitcoin accessible to trading companies and make investing easier, safer and legitimate.

With the way the US dollar is being systematically "eased" most of us might see this in our lifetimes.

I can't see 10K in 3 years. Remember 12.5 BTC will be created every 10 minutes that need to be absorbed.

As soon as price starts increasing miners start holding more coins, which then in turn fuels higher prices as supply decreases. $10,000 in 3 years is very bearish IMO.

And what, exactly, would make the price increase in the first place?  ::)

Could you see the previous 10x movements upward every year preceding this? What is the difference?

You know full well..

Bigger the market cap, more difficult and less likely to have 10x upward movement

$10k in 3 years may sound impossible but can happen :D the Bitoin foundations allow anything to happen.

it went more then 500%, but in future might not be that high anyone.

something is wrong with your numbers
Dec31 2013 was ~$800, not $60

I don't see bitcoin going anywhere before a new economical crisis hits a (western) country. That's very plausible within the next 3 years.. maybe even a worldwide crisis.. if that happens, $10.000 is very conservative.

I hope this prediction will come true :)

what exactly you are showing here? price in Dec2013 was ~$800 on any major exchange.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/
Your chart is of mtgox (how relevant is it?).

i think most of these numbers are on the low side.

Bitcoin was supposed to hit $10,000 in 2014 ....

yea, no.

-B-

Time for some fun analysis.

$10,000 in 3 years.

Lets pretend that we were already at $500 for simplicity.

We need to rise $9,500 over 3 years = average of $3,166/year or $264/month

Of course we know that Bitcoin doesn't just rise a static amount each month, it tends to go through exponential bubble phases.

The previous bubble involved doubling every 2 weeks. (100, 200, 400, 800, 1200 - less than 4 doublings)

It is worth noting that MtGox was slow and shit during that bubble, and prevented it from going further.


The end of the bubble taking us to $10k should involve doublings of the following values over 2 week periods.

$10,000 (target!)
$5,000
$2,500
$1,250
$625

$10,000 is no magic number. It could go higher or lower, for example it could peak at $12,437, $23,299, or $8999. We don't know.

Due to our current trajectory I do not think $10,000 is high enough for a bubble, because $625 will be approached too slowly. If the bubble starts closer to $1,250 it is likely to go much higher than $10,000 (remember, just one extra doubling is $20,000).

Conclusion

For the bubble to stop at $10,000 we would need to start doubling at around our current price, which is not going to happen without a major game changing event (e.g. bank runs). Therefore I predict the next bubble to go over $20,000.

Draper may be biased and he may also be right. For him 18mn is money he can afford to lose, let's not forget,Let's all get the popcorn out and watch the action play out

Seeing a value of 20,000$ would be great but I think that the next bubble will be lower than $10,000.

That basically means it woudn't be an exponential bubble then, as an exponential bubble would have to have already started to stop before $10k.

2014 isn't finished yet, no one can predict what's going to happen before the end of this year...

Bubble 1 - June 2011 - $30
Bubble 2 - April 2013 - $250
Bubble 3 - November 2013 - $1,200

B1 -> 22 months -> B2 -> 7 months -> B3 -> 8.5 months... -> B4?

Bubble 1 - 2

250 - 30 = 220
220 / 22 months = $10/month

Bubble 2 - 3

1,200 - 250 = 950
950 / 7 months = $135/month

Bubble 3 - 4?

@$10/month so far = $1,280 - erm, no, not a bubble
@135/month so far = $2,347.5 - still not really a bubble

Soooo......

135/10 = 13.5
135 * 13.5 = $1,822.5

@$1,822.g/month so far = $16,691.25

$16,691.25 would be the price of the peak of the bubble if we were at the peak today, which we are not.

$10,000 is looking more pessimistic every day.

Conclusion

Tim draper is a bear

A lot of Bitcoins are concentrated in the hands of miners, mining companies, mining pools, and it's increasingly a centralized situation.

This is an example why Proof of Stake is superior because if it's properly distributed it's not going to be mined which means no inflation to dilute the price. I would suggest you head out of Proof of Work if you don't like volatility and head into something else.

I like Peercoin as much as the next Crypto enthusiast, but I don't think it's going anywhere, anytime soon.  Unless it's somehow merge mined along with BTC, there's just no adoption or acceptance of it.  I mean $117,880,812 market cap!  That's peanuts in the grand scheme of things...

I do love it's properties and the fact you can mint it, it's 1% inflation rate, and unlimited supply.  Just don't see it, or the other Proof of Stake alts (Blackcoin, Reddcoin, Tekcoin, NXT, etc) reaching their potential.  They each have their individual quirks and underlying technology benefits, but unless they somehow piggyback off of Bitcoin, doesn't seem like they'll truly take off.

Sorry to break it to you guys... but as long as I'm holding bitcoin will never prosper. The forces of the universe hate me, and never allow me to gain money.... seriously I have the WORST luck with money, never made a dime off any of my investments I've ever invested in... I only wish I knew how it felt like to make a profit... on anything... must be nice

I know the feeling :D

The Winklevii has predicted a price of 40.000$ per coin and "that would be conservative" and "it would happen faster than everyone knows if it happens". I somewhat agree. I think these big price surges happen out of nowhere and no one really expects it. It's like the buying mania happens as people stop questioning obivous thing even if they know it makes total sense in the back of their mind but fear stops them from buying. This is exactly what happened with 1K bubble and it will happen the same in the next rally, each time supported by more solid facts,

lol sell!!!!!!

Go on, help others get rich one day. Selll!!!!

So are you saying that $10,000 is a pessimistic speculation?
I definitely agree with you, but I was really close to sell them all some weeks ago...