Title: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 13, 2014, 08:17:55 PM http://bitcoincharts.com/
Difficulty 29829733124 Estimated 29899735872 in 2013 blks a .23% jump https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 29,829,733,124 Estimated Next Difficulty: 32,687,713,301 (+9.58%) Adjust time: After 2014 Blocks, About 13.8 days I start a new one every time there is a new diff jump. I find these two tend to meet in the middle so 0.23 - 9.58 would be about 4.905 percent. the last thread https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=765956.0 bitcoincharts = .0007 percent btcwisdom = 14.78 percent middle = 7.43 percent I said under 7 percent real number was 8.75 percent. It should interesting to see if the under closer to the middle trend continues. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: fairlay on September 13, 2014, 09:38:02 PM thanks for the thread.
Lets through in some more number: Bitcoinwisdom: 32,708,058,763 (+9.65%) https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php 47,080,267,790 http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php +9.79% http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history 43,849,707,692 This huge numbers are calculated on a very little time frame - I would not trust them - however, it is always interesting see them converging against the real one. As always: we have opened predictions on the next dif. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/ https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/ here you can see how it turns our last time: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 14, 2014, 03:56:32 AM thanks for the thread. Lets through in some more number: Bitcoinwisdom: 32,708,058,763 (+9.65%) https://cryptanalys.is/difficulty/bitcoin_btc.php 47,080,267,790 http://www.vnbitcoin.org/bitcoincalculator.php +9.79% http://mining-profit.com/bitcoin-difficulty-history 43,849,707,692 This huge numbers are calculated on a very little time frame - I would not trust them - however, it is always interesting see them converging against the real one. As always: we have opened predictions on the next dif. https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-32b/ https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-33b/ here you can see how it turns our last time: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/next-difficulty-31b/ Yeah I think I will do a new one every diff jump. You can always put in info since you can serve as a hedge for some miners if they have an understanding of what you offer and how to use it. To anyone new to mining. Diff jumps are part of the game . They affect your mining gears power to pull in coins. Mining has had The Cpu stage slow miners lowest diff The Gpu stage faster miners higher diif The Fpga stage faster miners higher diff The Asic stage the fastest miners with the highest diff ever. Many of us feel this asic stage is maturing and power savings is not getting much better thus diff jumps are slowing to a 7-9% average. Others think the above is true but monster data centers will grow ones with very low power costs this will continue to grow the network at higher rates maybe 11-15% or more. Time will tell so follow these threads and learn to form your own opinions on net work's growth rate. Bottom line is we guess at it and those that guess a little better will profit more. I am still in the 7% to 9% camp for diff growth. Now for btc price vs the usd that is another thread. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: Wexlike on September 14, 2014, 12:53:35 PM I was surprised that the last rise was only 8.75%. Looks like a big farm was waiting for a low diff entry point.
hash rised a lot around the last adjustment https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: skuser on September 14, 2014, 02:28:56 PM if you still have not enough:
http://nextdifficulty.com/ ;) Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 14, 2014, 03:16:10 PM I was surprised that the last rise was only 8.75%. Looks like a big farm was waiting for a low diff entry point. hash rised a lot around the last adjustment https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty I think the diff jumps no longer reflect the reality of mining . Some companies are building pure data center machines. They can put gear online when they want. Lets pick a player like asicminer. They sell the tube an 850gh miner. If you buy a 10 pack which is 8.5th they assemble it and ship it anywhere in the world for 7.9 btc > this means the following well under 1 btc a th maybe the build cost for them is as low as .2btc a th so for 1000x or 200btc they can build a 1 ph asic machine. add another 50btc and for 250 btc they have 1ph most likely I am wrong it is cheaper then that. well 250 btc = about 120,000 usd . at 10% diff and 6 cents for power that 120,000 turns into a profit on day 21. so more more more more some would say. I say no the top 5 builders can all do close to this it is in their best interest to keep growth under 10% even if it cost them 250,000 usd to setup a 1ph farm diff jumps at 10% power is 8 cents a kwatt they burn at 1 watt a gh at todays numbers of 480 a btc that 250,000 usd turns into plus 1614 in 53 days on day 100 they are plus 127000usd . it is truly in their power and interests to limit growth to under 10%. Now 10% of the current network is around 25ph so the top companies need to limit their production to 20ph and let the tiny companies eat up the other 5ph. Of that 20ph they can sell 5ph to regular miners and run 15ph more each diff jump for their data centers . It is pretty much a winning formula for them. So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and do controlled growth. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: fairlay on September 15, 2014, 05:42:16 AM By the way: earlier in one of this threads someone ask for feedback of those who already have done a difficulty prediction on: https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/difficulty/
We think the best "feedback" are verifiable transactions on the blockchain. Have a look at: https://www.fairlay.com/anonymous/1CYsmywVd6NpxBrJZG13uZioXVG1s1gsn7/ Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: BTCish on September 15, 2014, 07:51:47 AM thanks for the thread man, realy useful, what is your typical mistake% ?
Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: vortexz on September 15, 2014, 08:06:45 AM bitcoinwisdom is always best !
Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: BTCish on September 15, 2014, 11:52:56 AM bitcoinwisdom is always best ! i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 15, 2014, 12:57:25 PM bitcoinwisdom is always best ! bitcoinwisdom has huge amounts of info. charts even ltc info. Their prediction model factors in past preformance and current preformance. Since asics made diff grow like mad from July of 2013 up to June of 2014 their current model always is a bit high each beginning of diff jump. Bitcoincharts model is all now no past data. Blending the two has really worked well the last 3-4 months. As always long term 6 month predictions are very hard to figure. I spent a lot of time with some simple models and ideas of what was to come in the future and since July of this year I am in the camp of the next 200 will see us under 10% maybe 7-9% . It may end up to be completely wrong but I am sticking with it for now. from june 29 to sept 13th we jumped 77.36% that has been about 9.97% average. So we are just under 10 % for the last 77days Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: 4onesea on September 15, 2014, 12:57:31 PM bitcoinwisdom is always best ! i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too. Probably it's the best at the moment but there are some new great websites popping out every month. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 15, 2014, 03:36:06 PM bitcoinwisdom is always best ! i used to use it too, very good calculator and many options too. Probably it's the best at the moment but there are some new great websites popping out every month. yes there are at least 7 decent sites that I know of. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: Wexlike on September 17, 2014, 01:57:05 PM https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
+15% ! :) Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 17, 2014, 05:19:59 PM https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty +15% ! :) yeah sucks. rather big jump . Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: SMB-2525 on September 19, 2014, 12:15:19 PM It is pretty much a winning formula for them. So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and do controlled growth. Tragedy of the commons. They are NOT cooperating. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: gallery2000 on September 19, 2014, 12:23:29 PM difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month. Let hold arms and die
Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 19, 2014, 07:20:28 PM It is pretty much a winning formula for them. So lets see if they fuck it up by growing the network like mad or if they are sane and do controlled growth. Tragedy of the commons. They are NOT cooperating. yeah lets just sit back and watch the show. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: xstr8guy on September 20, 2014, 11:44:57 AM difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month. Let hold arms and die 25% difficulty jumps per month?! BTC difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, not once a month. On average, there are approximately 3 difficulty adjustments per month. This next difficulty adjustment is about 12 days in length and already an 18% rise is predicted. 25% per month would be a blessing at this point! Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 20, 2014, 02:36:47 PM difficulty jumped 25% a month and bitcoin price dropped 25% a month. Let hold arms and die 25% difficulty jumps per month?! BTC difficulty adjusts every 2016 blocks, not once a month. On average, there are approximately 3 difficulty adjustments per month. This next difficulty adjustment is about 12 days in length and already an 18% rise is predicted. 25% per month would be a blessing at this point! https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 29,829,733,124 Estimated Next Difficulty: 35,298,583,758 (+18.33%) Adjust time: After 864 Blocks, About 5.0 days Hashrate(?): 258,785,313 GH/s even below is over 10 percent http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ Difficulty 29829733124 Estimated 32993316253 in 863 blks so we are at 10% - 18.33% as of now Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: mmeijeri on September 20, 2014, 04:48:33 PM Tragedy of the commons. They are NOT cooperating. Having your ass handed to you by your competitors doesn't count as a tragedy of the commons. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2014, 05:03:10 PM well they mined like mofo's added tons and ton's of gear diff will jump 14% or more and they got diff to jump at least 2 days quicker the 25th or maybe the 26th vs the 28th.
My mining days are shrinking and I am going the buy and hold route more then ever. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: mmeijeri on September 25, 2014, 05:11:04 PM My mining days are shrinking and I am going the buy and hold route more then ever. And that is part of the reason why miners selling off all their BTC will not drag the price all the way to zero. If the price drops by enough, even existing holders of BTC will be happy to buy up all additional coins that come on the market. It certainly won't drop below $10 (at least not on account of miners alone), probably not below $100 and it wouldn't surprise me if even $200 proved a firm and unbreakable support. Once the price stabilises, the global hash rate will adapt to the rational level given that price. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on September 25, 2014, 05:39:11 PM My mining days are shrinking and I am going the buy and hold route more then ever. And that is part of the reason why miners selling off all their BTC will not drag the price all the way to zero. If the price drops by enough, even existing holders of BTC will be happy to buy up all additional coins that come on the market. It certainly won't drop below $10 (at least not on account of miners alone), probably not below $100 and it wouldn't surprise me if even $200 proved a firm and unbreakable support. Once the price stabilises, the global hash rate will adapt to the rational level given that price. as it drops in price I will buy more as I feel it will be around a long time. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: mmeijeri on September 25, 2014, 06:09:38 PM as it drops in price I will buy more as I feel it will be around a long time. Same here. I'm still accumulating slowly as it is, but if the price should drop to $100 I'd buy an additional 10 straight away, 100 if it dropped to $10 and 1000 if it dropped all the way to $1. Title: Re: Newest btc prediction is 0.23 % to 9.58% Diff jump on Sept 28th Post by: philipma1957 on June 30, 2015, 04:57:04 PM diff thread sorting.
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