Bitcoin Forum

http://bitcoinpricelive.com/bitcoin-etf-5-reasons-the-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-will-send-bitcoin-to-10000/ (http://bitcoinpricelive.com/bitcoin-etf-5-reasons-the-winklevoss-bitcoin-etf-will-send-bitcoin-to-10000/)

The Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF  is set to go online at the end of 2014. You might remember the Winklevoss twin brothers from the movie The Social Network  where they sued Mark Zuckerburg and Facebook to win 50 million dollars. Since then the twins have moved on to start a Bitcoin ETF named the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Once it begins trading, expect the price of Bitcoin to soar to over $10,000.

Here’s 5 reasons why:

1. Wall Street Money Will Flow Into The Bitcoin ETF. As soon as a person can go to their brokerage account, type in the symbol COIN and buy now, it will put upwards pressure on the price of Bitcoin. There are many wealthy investors who would like to get into Bitcoin but they feel uncomfortable that Bitcoin is not in their name, that they need to backup a wallet, and they need to keep their computer virus free. The Winklevoss ETF will allow the average wealthy investor who is a not technology expert to put large amounts of money into Bitcoin.

2. The Winklevoss ETF will be promoted as currency diversification on Wall Street Bitcoin is already being regarded by Wall Street as a new currency. The US dollar, Euro, and Yen have been undermined as a store of value. It will be advertised to clients as a high risk, high reward alternative currency.

3. Trading of the ETF will only be open during stock market hours The COIN ETF can only be bought or sold during the NASDAQ market is open in the United States. This means that the Wall Street investor will only be able to access Bitcoin trading from 9:30 AM EST to 4:30 PM. During this time period, there will be increased volume and more news released about Bitcoin. In the downtime there will be massive speculation about where the Bitcoin ETF will open and for what price. There will be discrepancies of the price between Bitcoin exchanges and the Bitcoin ETF.

4. Liquidity in Bitcoin markets will increase dramatically. There will be many more Bitcoins trading hands on a daily basis as the Bitcoin ETF will be required to allow shorting as well. This means that investors can bet that Bitcoin will go down as well. When the Bitcoin ETF opens, it will be much easier for Bitcoin Bears to bet that the price will go down. However, this is good for the price of Bitcoin as it will allow investors to bet both sides of the Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin transactions

5. The Bitcoin ETF is required to buy additional Bitcoins Details of the Winklevoss ETF reveal that as more money flows into their trust, they are required to buy Bitcoins. Since the supply of Bitcoins is limited, this means they will have to buy from exchanges or over the counter purchases. Recently, the Winklevoss Twins announced they would pay in Bitcoin to go to space via Richard Branson’s Virgin Galatic.

Expect the price of Bitcoin to go space as well!

I'm seriously hoping that this ETF is out before 2015. This would definitely be the thing that we need for the next spike. To which height it will take Bitcoin, we can't really know; but it will surely be much higher than the last one.

Hello Brothers!

Are you suggesting its December-2015? ;D
First week or second week? I like people who jump this side of China wall.  :P

Let's hope that it won't be like the previous good news which didn't affect the price!

Is this a guess because the last I heard they were still trying to get the regulators to approve their ETF? Nobody had any idea how long the regulators would take to reach a decision, or if they would approve the ETF at all.

I heard the ETF would not be approved, it would be shot down by the commission

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1579346/000119312514058712/d562329ds1a.htm


"Approximate date of commencement of proposed sale to the public: As soon as practicable after this registration statement becomes effective."

It's not going to have much effect on the price, maybe a little spike, but not by 10k. Is there any further details on when they plan to release it? End of the year is pretty vague, and is that from the Winklevi themselves?

OH SH*T! BETTER SELL NOW!!!!!  ::)

if the future performance of bitcoin is tied to the faith of winkle ETF - > yeah, better sell now.

FUD!

This is a personal thing for the Winklevoss, "Bitcoin will be bigger than Facebook". They will do whatever is necessary to get the ETF approved!

Do you have any market research or demographic stats to back up anything you say above? What proof do you have that wealthy investors are interested?

November 2014..

10 years after the spdr ETF showed up for gold.

Its gonna be an amazing November.

over 1K for sure. Stack them bitcoins!

 :D

Are you joking.. lmao.... So much new money will roll in you wont be able to count it fast enough.

I thought, everyone is buying later cheaper...  ;)

There are two events that may occur in Bitcoin's near future
1) It rallies
2) It fails

Look at the headlines and decide for yourselves what is more likely

Agreed

Agree. There don't seem to be reasons for the commission to reject the ETF. They have been sitting on it for quite some time now, though.

I think neither of those will happen.
I think what will happen is 3) same stagnation +/- $100

4haolong?

This could be the only news which can start the next bubble, I'm waiting for it.

At least for another 3-4 months. What I meant is nothing extraordinary will happen to the price in November or December. Afterwards, too, only a gradual rise for all of 2015.

I think in middle of 2015 will be some changes.

If ETF kicks in before the end of 2014, the trendline which lasted since the start could continue to exist without modifications.

The Winklevii don't fuck around. They predict really high prices for BTC.
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/winklevoss-twins-bitcoin-will-bigger-facebook/

http://www.coindesk.com/cameron-winklevoss-bitcoin-price-40k/

These guys are balls deep within Bitcoin and will not let it fall under any circumstances.

Why would it not be approved? The fact that the ETF will hold/track the price of bitcoin would not cause it to be not approved. There are several other ETFs that track non-traditional investments that had no issues in getting SEC approval. You should remember that the SEC does not endorse any investment they approve, they only check to make sure the disclosures and accounting falls within the law

Ahaha nice1

Yeah most of you guys don't get it. The ETF will launch Bitcoin to the investing masses. Overnight the price will start to soar and wont stop till were back at 1200 at least.

You'll see.

This idea that the ETF is suddenly going to launch prices seems far fetched to me.  Is it positive and will it bring extra exposure?  Sure.  The ETF isn't large enough to have any real effect on trading prices though.  Not to mention I'm sure the bitcoins have already been purchased for the fund.  It's possible the fund could grow, but it would have to grow 100x for it to have a large influence on price.  The reason to get excited about the ETF is that you can now earn tax free gains on BTC by buying COIN in a ROTH IRA account.

I know you're old school and all but I figured you would realize how big this is in the true picture of things.  Do you have any clue how much new money will be able to trade in BTC... Right now on any given day we see 10-30M in trades for BTC with I assume to be somewhere around 100-250M sitting in exchanges in fiat. Maybe more maybe less.. I'm really just guessing here but that number is most probably close to being right.

Once the ETF is on the Nasdaq it opens the door for Bitcoin to be traded on an exchange with trillions of dollars.. We'll never see that kind of action on the BTC to fiat exchanges we have today.

That alone is going to push the price back up to over 1K. Traders and investors like to diversify and Bitcoin on the Nasdaq is the first thing they'll be running to. The WinkBros are going to be needing more BTC upon launch and fast! Its gonna be huge..
Huge like Facebook IPO, Alibaba IPO  and BTC from 2012-nov 2013.

You'll see...

You should have heard the smart money at Inside Bitcoins saying that the ETF will take Bitcoin to the moon

If it will be huge like the rise of btc from 2012 to 2013 then we will go to 6-7000$, not only 1k :)

COIN will solve three major problems that are stopping most people from investing:

1.  It's hard to buy bitcoins.  You have to find an exchange, open an account, go through the verification nightmare, get money there, and then (depending on the exchange) buy a little bit at a time until the exchange decides to trust you.  It's 100 times harder than going online and buying any stock or mutual fund in your existing brokerage account.

2.  It's hard to store bitcoins.  You either have to trust it with an online exchange, which everyone says is unwise, or you practically need a computer science degree to figure out how to keep it some kind of cold storage.  The average Joe would be unwise to try this at home.

3.  It's extremely hard to invest retirement funds in it, which is the only investment funds many people have.  (You can do it by setting up an IRA LLC, but that's expensive in terms of money, effort, and time.  See https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=396783.0 for details.)

Once COIN is approved, the average Joe can login to his retirement account and buy bitcoins with practically no effort.

I don't think that the approval of COIN will necessarily immediately launch Bitcoin to the moon, but it will make it much more likely to happen once some triggering event gets the ball rolling.

Of course, it's possible that the price will rise dramatically after the SEC announces that COIN is approved, but before anyone has a chance to actually buy it.  It might be worth setting up the IRA LLC and investing Roth IRA funds in bitcoins, where they can grow tax free, before that happens!

The illustrated guide to the Winkevoss ETF:

http://25.media.tumblr.com/e8100df428f333025c1c02b7407f5c27/tumblr_mkesi0hX5M1qjvx7xo1_400.gif

It's quite simple actually, more money being able to flow into the market can only do something good to today's price. :)

Ah yes, the soaring  $10,000 per Bitcoin in 2015.  Let's see what this means. 

If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%), this is how much daily fresh money is needed on the exchanges for the price to be stable:

2015-2016 :   $36 million ($18 million daily if 50% sold) 
2017-2020:   $18 million ($9 million daily)                         
2021-2024:   $9 million ($5 million daily)
etc.

Don't forget that they have to sell to cover their electricity costs. So, if Bitcoin is $10,000, good luck in finding that daily thirty million dollars.

That sure took a long time to almost be ready now.

Where did you get those calculations from?

Well... It'll take some time to get up to the 6k mark... But I stand by my previous statement that the COIN ETF is gonna take bitcoin on its next bull run.
What's sad is that I really thought this ETF woulda been listed by now.. After doing a bit of research Im thinking were still a good 6 months away at least before the Launch.
Here's to waiting.

So even bitcoiners admit that it doesn't work as a currency because it's too difficult for people to trade in and out of regular fiat and storing them properly is too complex and dangerous.

So the answer is... open an ETF to allow computer illiterate people the chance to "invest" in a currency that is too complicated for them to use in the first place. Brilliant!

So, "If miners decide to sell all their mined Bitcoins, (or 50%)"  wasn't enough of a clue for you?


It is built in the Bitcoin design that in a steady state almost all of the mining rewards are spent on the electricity costs.  Until the point where you can pay your electricity costs in BTC, this money must pass trough the exchanges, which pushes the price down.

In other words, Bitcoin has built-in price brakes.  The higher the Bitcoin price is, the higher the downwards pressure becomes.

Today, it is too hard to store and use.  Hardware wallets will change that.  Today, it is too hard to obtain.  That's gradually changing, too.  But if you wait until the infrastructure is fully in place, you miss the run up.

Who struck it rich by investing in Google?  Those who saw the promise from the beginning, or those who waited until it was fully functioning?  The rewards go to those who can see the potential of great new ideas early on!

Something about a learning curve and new developments making the process more easy over time.

Most new generations know how to use a personal computer, this wasn't always te case.

On the other hand: Since technology becomes more and more ubiquitous and generally accepted, easier to use, etc. People aren't that into the core technologies anymore. They just use the technology. If the technology hasn't got a real use or appeal to the people, they won't use it "just 'cause it's cool"
(This isn't a bad thing in my books, but one should always remember that)

I also believe the COIN ETF will be absolutely great for the price and market adoption. It's a great investment vehicle for people already active on the NASDAQ. SecondMarket is also great, but this will have an even bigger impact!

The ETF will not cause the price to go above $10k. We will probably see a temporary uptick of 10%, if and when it's announced, but price will come down and may even see a huge downtrend when people realize that the ETF didn't cause the hoped-for moonshot to $10k.

Both of those are due to Bitcoin being subject to a regulatory double standard in the USA. Fortunately Bitcoin is growing outside the USA. If you want to read something brilliant, try to ready Lawsky's regulation recommendations. It should have you laughing in no time.

That's so 2014 brah.
I think the etf is the piece of news that everyone is waiting for, if it's approved, everyone will try to buy asap. If it's not, well, we keep going down further and further.

The ETF will make a fool out of everyone who argues we should focus on the technology and that the price does not matter.

Once it is made public it will be the hottest thing in tech/finance.

I imagine there'll be a leak of some sort leading up to the official announcement and that alone will get the wheels turning especially if the price stays or hangs a little lower than what it is now. As it is, people are awaiting a perceived bottom and have stacks of paper chilling in preparation of reloading their portfolios at such a time. Then, toss in the ability for institutional investors to cast their large shadows even in a modest way and you'll have a mini-moon right out of the gate. Then Joe Sixpack hears from their one friend that has been telling them about bitcoin forever now and how this person is making serious money everyday during this time and they become frantic to get some of the action. Then the media kicks in and voila.

At least it will make Bitcoin accessible to the market. Remember- even Amazon stock crashed to nearly $1 at one point. The stock market can tank something like bitcoin just as easily. And of course amazon is now worth a ton of money, so you can always come back from the edge....

Yep. This is going to be Bitcoin's "IPO".

Difference being anyone with a credit card can participate.

Except there is no money to be made tanking something like Bitcoin at its current market cap.

They'll need to increase it at least an order of magnitude before they can play their games.

Meet the concept of SHORTING.  :D

Much better pump + dump + short, repeat 2x.

Don't be surprised if its shorted to zero

imagine the squeeze  8)

It's irrational to think in such extremes. Emotional trading is bad trading.

As I've pointed out before, the Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They bought a lot of Bitcoins, and now they want to cash out.  If they sold them on an exchange, the price would crash. The ETF is an attempt to get rid of those Bitcoins without crashing the price.

Wishful thinking never ends on here.

So? Greed is what drive Bitcoin. I would be suspicious if their motives were anything else.

I do see this as a cash out attempt - but I don't necessarily think it is a bad thing; one more revenue for people to get exposure to bitcoin and an easier / more accessible avenue for common folks.  Could be a win / win.