Bitcoin Forum

I made the decision in January to save for my (end of September) honeymoon in bitcoin. In the last few months, I'm getting slaughtered. I've held strong and not sold a bitcent that wasn't required. It's getting close enough (2 weeks), that I'm starting to worry...

So, the question is... sell now, or sell in two weeks?

I am in a slightly similar situation because my wife's birthday is at the start of October and I promised her a gift from Newegg.

I am trying to get her used to the idea of waiting for her gift until November, but she is skeptical.  Perhaps you could double down and promise a much better honeymoon in a few months?

It is always good to stress-test your marriage early.   ;D

This goes for everyone.

If you need a certain amount of money by any day less than 5 years from now then a) don't buy and b) sell if you've already bought.

 Only hold what you don't need for awhile.

It easy, never sell. Just hodl.

http://coinbrief.net/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/MatrixBitcoin.jpg

You should not save in bitcoin with the idea to spend it soon, except when you are able to buy them back immediately.

Can't, flights are booked. We're still over (just slightly) our targeted budget, but I've lost about 35% in USD of what I put in. OUCH.

In that case, carry the flights on your credit card for a month or two and try to convince yourself that you aren't gambling with borrowed funds.

Am I helping?

In all seriousness, this is exactly why high-risk investing is for long term money.  I would hate to pull my money out when markets are down, but sometimes you have no choice.   I would leave the money in if I could convince myself that it is a retirement fund, and pull it out if I really need it to cover airline tickets.

I also follow this position with BTC.  It seems like a waiting game to me.  I could be wrong and end up with nothing.





*IMO sell now if you require funds with in a month.

Flights are paid. Car rental, hotels, food, etc. are not. I didn't consider it investing, simply using bitcoin for what it was intended. As a currency. I'm not so much an investor as I am a believer in the technology and in the decentralization of power.

I say sell when your credit card bill arrives, but in that case you really will be gambling for the next month. 

I am also trying to treat it like a currency, but it sure hurts to spend it right now.

I disagree, with the jumps in price all around I would recommend selling if you need money with in a month.

Probably sell, unless you want to have your honeymoon at McDonalds.

This.

I would sell at the last possible moment. Bitcoin is greatly undervalued so the chance of it going up is larger than down.

How much down can you take without ending up in debt when all is said and done?

Maybe bitcoin is greatly undervalued in your eyes, but to the general public, it's crap and nobody is buying. Hence, why price has been falling all god damn year.

Lesson number for trading: Don't fight the tape.

Lesson number 1 for trading: DON'T TRADE!!!1111 (rather invest)

Rule #2: Set a stop loose. Don't let your investment fall any more than 1 or 2% before cutting looses. That would have saved OP.

trading and investing are two different things...

Rule 2: See Rule 1, which was DO NOT TRADE!!

never mix money and women

If you need it within a month i'd sell right here right now. All indications show we're in slow, bloody spiral into the 300's

And investing in appreciable assets -- such as a diverse portfolio of stocks and bonds -- and investing in speculative digital tokens are two different things.

Any speculative investment should have a stop loose, which many here decided to forego and instead blindly hope that their hail mary pass would boom again. Bitcoin is going down... if you didn't cut your looses yet... it's still much better to do it late than when it's down to <$100, which will come, trust me.

why

Nothing should have a stop loss. Selling simply because the price of something you hold (and no other reasons) is just about the most stupid thing you can do in your life. If price goes down you buy more, when price goes up you can contemplate selling.

Oh and for the record the term is stop loss.

Rule #3: Don't throw good money after bad.

You're operating on some kind of fallacy that price is guaranteed to rise again. If investing was that easy, we'd all be rich.  ;D ;D Just invest in some random penny stocks and hold no matter what!! ;D ;D

I know it's hard, but sometimes you just need to cut the loose and look for a better place to put your money.

*Sigh* if you know what you are investing in it's not "throwing good money after bad" but "averaging down". If you're just a random idiot who's just clicking buttons I'm not really sure what to recommend.

investing 101

GTFO at the first sign of trouble.

:D

if you want to give your wife a good honeymoon the only option you have is sell fast
tommorrow we go down below $430

its questing you love her or not...

Your first mistake was getting married. You know the divorce rate is like 50% right? And that if you do lose, you lose everything, not just part of what you own? That seems the bigger risk, not bitcoin.

simply put your assets in bitcoin, and the court will never find them! you make money, and you hide it from your wife... win/win!

I would sell now, not just because the price may drop but also because of how close it seems until you plan on going on that honeymoon :) at least now you know you will get a decent amount instead of waiting and seeing a further drop.

I STILL recommending selling now.. I hope you sold yesterday.

FUCK ME!

You should sell 2 weeks ago.

This was posted yesterday and was 100% accurate. OP, you are loser big time if you did not sell yet.

Your wife will leave you for a rich man with jobs and companies not some nerd currency gambler.

honest advice to you my fellow bitcoiner, don't sell. Don't sell until it's 10x what it's worth now

McDonald's or Burger King?  ;D

Sell or no honeymoon anymore! (aka divorce)

If you sell now and loose all your money, this is how you will spend your honeymoon

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QrM39m22jH4

I do not envy anybody in this situation. Honestly, you've taken pretty close to the full brunt of the downturn at this point. I imagine we'll see somewhere around $340 to $350 following a flash crash... then we'll jump up. But, that's tempting fate. I really have to believe that there is a better reentry point.

So, what am I saying? You can hold and you'll probably see $450 range, again... maybe even $500s (higher than that is really questionable at this point). That said, there probably will be a better reentry point. You have to ask yourself whether you are good enough with TA to time and price that point.

Sorry for your loss, brother.

People said that already back in january... thanks for the laugh.

Very bad judgment in the 1st place.  Obvious bubble before.  Your post hints that you are on a series of bad decision making.

Thank you. I sold this morning at $398. That hurt. I lost about 40% of what I saved. I sold because it was the low end of what I estimated I could do the trip for. I started saving in January. Bought from $850 all the way down. I knew this was a risk. One of the major reasons I did it was because I knew it would be harder to touch the money for bills and whatever, if it was in BTC. After panic selling 1/3rd of my btc during the crash of 2013, I know better than to sell, ever.

Regardless, we'll still have a hell of a time. Just have to be a little conscientious of costs.

In the end, it's just money. Most of us never have much of that, anyways. This really is an incredible game for losing money, isn't it? Even the folks shorting (I count myself in those ranks) have found a way to lose money throughout on jumps up and down.

Enjoy the honeymoon. That's what really matters. Love, who you have around you, and the time you get to spend. Money comes and goes... that's what it does. She's lucky to have you.

Cheers!

Isn't hindsight great? All you bear trolls said $100-$120 was an "obvious bubble" as well. You guys have diarrhea of the keyboard.

How do you figure I'm "on a series of bad decision making"?

Dude, fuck all these people giving you hell. Is this probably the largest speculative bubble ever? Probably. Emphasis on probably and not certainly. A lot of people are in the same shoes just as they are on any number of speculative investments. People don't always lose and people who lose a bet aren't suddenly embarking "on a series of bad decision making." It's just a thing, just money, you win some and you lose some. Haters are just gonna hate.

I agree with you. I still don't agree that it's a bubble. Maybe it's confirmation bias, but I think there are other factors that explain this. First, paypal will cause a massive increase in sell pressure... which is likely being factored in at the moment. Then you have the alibaba ipo, and significant chinese investment. If they're looking to get out for the time being, alibaba gives them all the more reason to do so. I think the market is factoring in the paypal adoption, and we'll actually gains when paypal actually implements. It is almost certainly confirmation bias... but that doesn't mean it's necessarily wrong. IMO it's still worth the upshot, and I'll still be buying every chance I get.

I am almost certain that it is confirmation bias, brother. That doesn't mean that Bitcoin is valueless or that it isn't worth more than it was worth before these events. The thing is that the price that you see in a market isn't the current price, but very often the speculative price (what will this be worth in X months). That's why bad news registers hard whereas good news is almost invariably baked in.

So, now transport yourself back to a time a year or two ago... is it possible today for Bitcoin to be all of the things that people hoped, and even expected, it would be when they were looking off into the future a couple years ago? The answer is no. Public adoption (not industry adoption, but actual consumers) has slacked off, there are too many persistent trust issues (scams, Gox, hackers, etc... remember most people are amazingly computer illiterate), there will almost certainly be competition from Apple (even if that product that absorbs a lot of the customer base is, to a technologically literate person radically different than Bitcoin), and the New York rules are tantamount to a death sentence for many U.S. targeting BTC companies (and, even if it is not, it forces them to not hold profits in Bitcoin which just reinforces sell pressure).

Additionally, what will change that will stop Paypal and others from massively increasing sell pressure? Are they suddenly going to keep their profits in BTC? Are they going to do that in a down market? At minimum, this confirms that there has to be further legs down.

So, I guess what I am trying to say is that Bitcoin (or something similar) will probably survive and at some point in the future thrive. At the present moment, though, there's no need to be a martyr. You know that even if it stops dropping today that in the next few months the downside risk outweighs the upside (and that calculus may very well change if we confirm a bottom).

So just be careful.

Absolutely no reason whatsoever why bitcoin will not rise again. In fact every single odious little toad telling you what a bad decision you made is banking on it.

I hope you have a fab honeymoon!

This. But do be careful to manage expectations and be wary of panic anything... panic selling or buying... look for price targets, write out a plan, and be cautious. Also, although you are investing as opposed to trading, having a stop loss about 10% off moving forward (not even a narrow one... just something to capture a portion of a cataclysm) might not be the worst idea.

You got married. Did you read my earlier post? You have a 50% chance to lose everything you own and most of what you earn for many years going forward. That's a way higher risk than bitcoin. Nobody ever think they will be the ones getting hit with divorce papers. That happens to other people.

Look at the positive side: your marriage is probably over.

well, marriage and religion has a lot to do with each other.  Most people that get divorced don't have strong religious beliefs.  So this is over generalizing.

It's statistics, buddy. I'd be open to look at statistics based on your theory (if any such exist, which I deeply hope is the case, and moreso that you have links to them), but even then we don't know how op and wife look at those things.

Exactly. You also don't know how we define our marriage.

I've already been married and divorced once. I know the risks and have taken necessary precautions.

You are screwed :) But if some good news come like paypal add BTC or something like APPLE add BTC the bitcoin will be back to $1000'th

Your previous divorce was due to the last bitcoin crash? :P

Well, if your ass is covered then godspeed and so on. Still, having been through it once why would you risk it again?

Nope, it's bullshit. I know doing research and fact checking isn't big around here, but 50% of marriages do not end in divorce. Someone, decades ago, who was particularly bad at statistics and math (he'd fit in well on this forum) came to the conclusion after looking at a government statistic that there were something like 2.4 million marriages in 1980, and 1.2 million divorces.

Of course... the 1.2 million divorces could have been anyone married over the last 50 years or more, not just the people married that year... derp.

Okay OP...listen up.

You made the decision to save for your honeymoon in bitcoin.

Why not do exactly that. Leave it alone until the time you originally intended to cash out or use btc for honeymoon purposes, no matter what the price is at that time. If your spouse went for that to begin with, spouse deserves what spouse gets and so do you.

Just to pour ice water on all the speculation, let's bring this down to reality a bit with a worst case scenario...from personal experience unrelated to bitcoin but 98% related to gambling debts.

See the fact you'd gamble with honeymoon money is sending a huge message to the spouse to be. If my fiance told me they were putting our honeymoon in the hands of a volatile digital currency, there wouldn't be a honeymoon.

My former husband got caught up gambling money we all needed to have a financially secure life and you know where it ended up?

It ended with him unable to pull out of it, taking a nose dive and committing suicide.

Had he done that with bitcoin, it would've likely ended in homicide instead.


Gambling for marital funds is probably not the best way to start a marriage. There's a bigger uglier message you're really sending and if you're the male in this equation and the spouse to be is female, well...enjoy the shit storm she will never let you forget. Even if bitcoin jumps up and you're with a surplus, eventually it'll come down and eventually it'll bust a hole in your relationship.

In the future, should you continue learning and doing bitcoin, don't put it aside for a specific time to cash out. That's defeating the whole purpose of bitcoin. It would've been much cooler had you not sold and instead worked out a honeymoon paid for and only using bitcoin. That would've also served a secondary purpose and let you know whether you're in that 50% going to see the lawyers! :D

#just sayin

Religion == Genesis FUD

This!!

Assuming your American a honeymoon and wedding is a BIG thing!!

I do hope she knows you were putting this money into bitcoin?

The last thing you want in your relation is distrust, the idea you're gambling with money that has been set aside for a purpose.
You might resort to even stupid ways to cover it up like taking out a loan. This only makes things worse.

Problem then is that "when" this comes out she will distrust you and divorce is just around the corner.
What will she think that you will do with the kids college fund, money for vacation, etc. ?

Next thing is that you will not be allowed to manage the money you earn :P

I would say sell.... and hope that bitcoin doesn't rocket in the next few months.
That should enable you to re-enter at a decent price point.

This makes me think about statistical lies.

Religious people do get divorced just as much (or even more), there are a lot of contradicting sources.
Usually people get abandoned by their church or community because of the divorce, or they leave so they never have to see their ex, or they choose to leave the church to save the face of their family and church. I've seen this happen.

Thus making them statistically non-religious when you measure divorce rate and you can say that religion has a low divorce rate.

My 2cts

I'd really hate to meet the women some of you marry. We agreed to put the savings in to bitcoin. We knew the risk. It didn't work out, but we got out before it was a problem. We agreed to a reasonable ring, reasonable wedding, reasonable honeymoon. Neither one of us was interested in a large waste of money for what? Tradition? We are going to spend two weeks traveling, hiking, backpacking, camping, resorting, etc. We're also not getting a state marriage. Legally we're filling out the paperwork to give each other necessary rights, otherwise, we're drafting a personal contract between the two of us that establishes our responsibilities to each other. It's what a marriage should be without state and church. Our contract will be signed/hashed and the hash published on the blockchain. Our relationship will be what we define it as, not what someone else thinks it should be. This crash in price isn't going to cause any long term problems. She's not that shallow.

Most divorces happen within the first seven years. Post again exactly 2555 days from now.

I agree.

In my opinion, this carefully engineered price decrease could reverse in October with some whales' tax situation.

I think the price slide might continue another couple of weeks before the whale pump starts.

If the OP has a month more, he's more likely to see a major burst upward than an appreciable further decline.

Dam man sorry to hear you lost 40%.

It sucks but I think we will see 330 before seeing 500 again.

Most likely we will slip to 300 before November and hopefully something will happen then to cause a nice jump.

People forget that this is a SPECULATION board.

We are all just throwing out predictions.

This poor guy.

Aren't you glad you didn't sell immediately below $400 as some urged?

He sold at 398.

Wow. This could be it. The mother of all sold at the bottom posts & solid confirmation of the next leg up!

I feel for you. By way of consolation, I will send you 1BTC if we hit $5k before 2015, i'll double it if we hit $10k before December.

At least now you got some skin in the game ;) have a great wedding and honeymoon

I've been at peace since I sold. We're OK with it. I was constantly worrying before I sold. It's one less thing to worry about now.

Haha, thanks! I still have a lot of skin in the game. This was just a separate savings account for a specific purpose. I wouldn't consider selling anything else.

You made the right choice. You were given some negative feedback this time, but that does not take away from the fact you made the right choice at the time. You knew you were going to have to cash out soon no matter what, and price was in steady decline.

Oh good that is great to hear. I'll leave it up to you to decide whether you want to collect on my offer, because when all else is stripped away all a man has is his word, and I have already given it.

Wish you a perfect honeymoon! In the end it's not so much about luxury I suppose, but the more important things. Have a great time and forget about bitcoin for a while. Lots of people here feel bad for you or laugh at your selling low. The thought that they should envy you for having a honeymoon does not even cross their minds ;)

1. Supermoon
2. Honeymoon
3. Bitcoinmoon

One after the other  8)

EDIT:

Furthermore, applause for sgbett and his offer. Good to see that there are still some people left in the bitcoin community who are still just nice people, no matter what the price of bitcoin is.

Thank you sgbett... but I can't collect on that since you were under the wrong impression. No worries. I'll be very happy when we hit 10k. :)

Ouch. Sorry I missed that. I didn't mean to rub it in.

To the OP:

You did the right thing even if your timing was a bit off.

You and your fiancee's happiness is far more important than mere money.

Good luck and best wishes.

Too kind sir. Thanks for releasing me. Seems there are indeed still good guys around still hanging around this troll hole :D

That was a good price, from today's perspective.

It's not really a nice offer if you're promising something that you know isn't going to happen. The only people who actually believe that bitcoin will rise above $5,000 USD by the end of the year are delusional new investors who will be burned.

Hey OP, I promise to send you 1 bitcoin in the event that world peace is offically declared by the United Nations by December 31, 2014. It has approximately the same likelihood as bitcoin reaching $5,000 USD.

The only nice people on this thread were the ones on page 1 suggesting that the OP sell. If he had listened, he would have cut his losses in a much better position than we're in now. Let it be a lesson, if you listen to charlatans like sgbett and invest your savings into bitcoin now because "we've bottomed out" (funny how these guys keep declaring a bottom every week), then you'll be retiring in a carboard box, eating cold ramen packets.

I so wish the market would make this guy swallow his words.