Bitcoin Forum

I do not really think that, but since the Speculation subforum turned into a trollbear factory, I created this thread to bring some optimism in.

RSI shows we're a little undervalued right now. Check it:

https://i.imgur.com/ulgNfl2.png

Don't start just yet cos I need to buy more at these prices!

Doesn't matter what the charts say.... we are going down until something significant happens

Considering that market movements take much longer in this bubble than in previous ones, using the same metric (daily here)
leads to the wrong conclusion. Check the 6h chart for Bitstamp on the 2nd July 2013, which corresponds to this latest drop.

Yeah, something significant, like going up. One thing is clear - bitcoin is drawing yet another new bubble formation, and nobody knows how it will unfold - quick and violent as it did in 2011 and 2013 or slow and certain as in 2012.

That's just like the perma-bull that says its going up no matter what.

For me it's more like October 2013. But I make no prophecies.

Trollbear factory LMAO!!! So true :)

Could it be a deep.. DEEP FALLIN to a super rally?!   HANDS OF STEEL.

few more days would be nice, could probably buy a bit more bitcoin then.

looks like the lowest its EVER been.  time for a nasty snapback.

keep it quiet guys


I havent finished buying yet

get outta my way

I hope we start to move up from here slow and steady!

this is Bitcoin.

judging by the charts it should be a couple of months for the real big jump here, right ?

I actually agree. We might even get a reprieve and a run up to $450, but we won't break the bear market until we get another flash crash. I mean, BFX is what, $50 (and went $70) below the last flash crash's finishing price... for it to end here would be like taking a girl for a nice night out on the town and forgetting to kiss her on her doorstep. That, like a non-event bottom, happens but that doesn't make it likely.

A lot of good things have happened to Bitcoin this year, tbh I am not sure why they did not affect the price the good way.

a deadcat bounce and technical relief rally take us back to 450 before more dump send us down ......

Part of it is manipulation, but the bigger thing is that the price you see on the exchange is not the present value (or not only the present value) but rather a prediction of Bitcoin's worth moving forward. So, Bitcoin is worth more, if you were conducting a standard appraisal, than it was a year ago. BUT, Bitcoin has less potential than it did a year ago (Gox, governments, regulations, competition, etc., etc.).

That's how I understand it. That we've come very far. That Bitcoin has a lot of value. That it is actually increasing in value. But that value is still forward looking towards the project's longer term projects and, through that lens, we maybe know now that it won't singlehandedly change the world (as many once thought and hoped back in the run-up days) but may be a substantial contributor to a different paradigm.

You think we're going to jump $420? We failed the last bounce up and the MACD is getting close to turning negative again. I am 50-50 on whether our next pivot down will be at $420 or some price higher (probably $450).

So you are saying that currently, Bitcoin is overvalued? And that for it to really be worth $410 or so per coin would be next year or longer?

I don't get this at all.  ??? ::)

More or less, yes. That it is either overvalued or fairly closely to correctly valued (the market is sorting that out). That the price is prospective. In some ways, this is already known -- we don't have an increase in demand being purchased from PayPal, for instance... the market merely prices in the expected increase in demand. Similarly, back when the price was $1200 (although that was largely due to upside manipulation), it wasn't because we were seeing the results of Bitcoin being adopted by the masses, but merely it was the expectation that Bitcoin would be adopted by the masses and the predicted implications of what mass adoption would mean for the future value.

So, the way I try to think about it is that we are really sorting out the value at least a few months down the road and our guesses can be grossly over or under. It's why this is such a risky game. In many regards, Bitcoin is still in its infancy to the point that people still don't know whether it will ultimately be successful or not. Anyhow, it is for that reason that the price doesn't jump, or at least jump much, on news. Institutions accepting Bitcoin doesn't mean that consumers will.

There are, of course, other factors. The main other factor is that companies can still, generally speaking, not hold their revenues in Bitcoin due to accounting rules and other regulations. Thus, somebody buys coins to purchase XYZ and the bigger merchants then have to dump them.

Think of it as a girl you really liked. Before she ever wrongs you, you rightfully feel that she is perfect and can do no wrong. Over the years, she nags you, probably acts abrasive here and there, and twenty years later you are married to the hag and hate her.

Bitcoin, like that girl, at one time could do no wrong so our valuation of her was very high and we looked at the potential. Some s--- went down and we know that she can do wrong. We may stick by her side, but the value we are willing to put on her is not quite the same as before s--- went down. This will be true even if she acts in her most wonderful form from here on out. The dream is dead. That doesn't mean the reality is stark or sad... it may actually be a great one. But, yes, she can do wrong and that has an impact on the potential range of values we'd expect for her.

Slightly strange analogy there :)

When bitcoin was created it was a vast well of untapped potential but also unknown and worthless. As the community, infrastructure and utility of bitcoin have increased so has its exchange rate as this is priced in. Obviously the years of multi-thousand % gains are gone.

Gains in the future may still be massive but I think what newbie saying is that there is less of the road to left to travel for bitcoin now.

There is still a huge amount of road laying before Bitcoin.  The speculative value of Bitcoin will remain highly volatile for quite some time.  I live the majority of my life on Bitcoin now, holding coins for the speculative payoff is attractive but I'd be just as pleased if it would stabilize at $100 and become less volatile so I can just use it and know when I'm gonna do a grocery trip to Target I can expect it to run BTC0.5 to buy the Gyft card to cover the trip.  This is the psychological dichotomy that will exist for awhile.  Bitcoin is a currency but is treated by most everyone as a speculative commodity.

I personally believe we are far from seeing the years of multi-thousand % gains disappearing.  I believe there will be a flight of capital into Bitcoin sometime in the next 18 months, which will drive another bubble.  In the meantime, I'll keep setting aside BTC savings, and actually use the coins as much as possible.

On the contrary, this is where it starts to get interesting.
The concept of bitcoin, of decentralized public ledgers to ascertain ownership of something, is only starting to be explored.

In times of global surveillance and ever restrictive governments that limit personal and information freedom we need tools to counter these measures.
Bitcoin, not the protocol but the idea, is one of them.

An idea is not a tool. A protocol is a tool.

Excellent point. I was discussing Bitcoin specifically, but you are right the really exciting distributed ledger applications have only just begun.

I meant tool in the sense you would call an abstract algorithm a tool for solving a specific problem.
The bitcoin client/protocol is an implementation of a concept.
There are different algorithms for sorting collections and there are different implementations for the abstract concept satoshi presented (yes, many alts are clones but nevertheless there are also enough that genuinely bring something new to the table)

[edit] I don't want to start a discussion on altcoins vs bitcoin. My feelings are mixed. There is no single distribution of unix/linux but rather a multiverse. Why believe that that should be the case for bitcoin?

Nah. It will go down again in a few days. We will at least touch 299 before this is over.

It does not matter, as long as it is used, it is good.

Will this ever  be over?   ;D