Bitcoin Forum

And it is still dropping like a cherry.  Don't forget on upswings people are leveraging this thing to the max.  Wait until people start to leverage their shorts to the max.  $100-200 incoming.  Definitely more and more confident of this statement.  I've been saying this for the last 6-7 months.

You haven't been saying it that long (you've made totally accurate calls thus far, mostly towards the downside, but not that severe until recently... I just make that note for the sake of accuracy).

So, when do you believe this will happen? I certainly think it is a possibility, but I think we'll hit somewhere close to the last bottom... probably around a $342 to $350... and then get a jump up back to the low to mid-400s in the shorter trading term. After that, the market will need to decide whether it wants to rally up or if it wants to take another step down (this would be in approximately a month that we'd hit that fork). More or less, the same progression as the last larger leg (down to $440-$450 range, up to low $500s, generally flat for a while, and then this second big downturn).

Is that assessment relatively fair?

One thing I have learned these past months is that sometimes its worth listening to bears. Anyway, I hope it happens. I am confident the price will eventually go to at least 100k, and it will go fast when it does happen. With this in mind I have a target number of coins and a plan to spend them that will let me live on them for the rest of my life. The lower the price goes, the sooner I get there, the more overall money I eventually make, both short and long term. Bring on those dumps.

Thats your story when you want cheap coins. What about on the way to yours 100k, would you be happy to go first to $5k then again back to $300 just to pick some "your thinking guys"?

Like saying let "random succesful company" burn down so I can buy it for 10% and then sell it in few year for 500% todays price.

Does not compute really. Your thoughts are flawed and you might also get lucky this time.

5k to 300 would be a dream come true. And also utterly unrealistic.

BS. Many people wishing about $100 and we were at $1100. Quite similar.

Good thing is that even if such low prices come, there won't be a lot of guys catching bottom and holding to the top. So, there won't be a lot of winners, but BTC will still be one of the losers to lost 80-90%. If BTC fail, even guys catching bottom will lose money, so no difference if you buy at $100 or $1000 if BTC fails.

So guys don't wish for too low prices, cause they are bad for BTC. And also read lines above why are not good for guys without enough coins.

you have to have really big balls to short bitcoin at this level.

Dude you are an amateur. As for "no one is really shorting bitcoins" - I made over $65k shorting the last 2 days. And I am planning shorting some more, probably down to around 340-360 range.

But eventually the bear market will find a bottom. And no, it won't be at $100.

Just like any bull can be right in a bull market, any bear can be right in a bear market. The other reasons you give for your "analysis" should not be taken seriously, imo.

Or you short at the earlier spike up to $408 (I caught $405 as my average) and you place a stop loss a couple hours later at $409. If you do that... gigantic whopper balls aren't even required.

100 wont happen. 200s maybe, maybe even 250 or lower just to shatter established patterns. But not below 200. I'd be willing to make a small wager on that if you feel so inclined.

And I actually do have "enough" coins by now. Jut not as many as I want.

My balls aren't big enough, but still:

http://www.american-buddha.com/ateamamericafix108y.gif

Just use a narrower stop loss (or, effectively, a stop gain if you haven't already taken profits earlier). You know what the TA targets are. Do that and you can short to your heart's content... what are you risking, maybe a percent or two?

Dont be too sure about that.
I still remember the last november rally. I was going like "are you guys nuts?".
With my personal calculations BTC had a hefty surcharge even at $100.
BTC has grown in value since from fundamental reasons (more merchant adoption, ATMs) but it would still have a speculative surchage at $100 (and obviously it will allways have), but thats nowhere as high as it would have been in in 2013.
Based on WWAVD (What would a vulcan do) it wouldnt drop below Oct 2013 levels. On the other hand Oct 2013 levels wouldnt have been as high based on WWAVD.

Bet? Half a coin just for giggles? $100 or lower won't happen, 0.5 btc on the line, yay or nay?

Do you think i am stupid?
WWAVD. Participate in a bet were the reward is worth (nearly) nothing if you win and worth (potentially) a lot if you loose?
Sorry punk, try harder.

Edit: Typos, slightly drunk :)

It's interesting how you missed a quote there. Anyway, now we know where we both stand and all is well.

Ok, counterbet.
Lets bet if BTC goes above 500$ by end of next year you get 1BTC, otherwise i get $500 from you?.
Disclaimer: Bet valid as long as BTC is below $500. ;)

Done.

Please pm me with details, i will post proof address that i have 1 BTC then.

Yeah, well i edited, but since the offer has been approved bevor the expiration date its kinda moot.

Deleted the post if it is not appreciated :)

Edit: Following was the PM: Since it expcilitly allowed me to post the decision i went for the full quote.
I will choose option 1. At that date a tranfser will be initiated.
I will gladly perfom a transfer to a owned address with a message of your choise (please nothing illegal!) to prove i am in possesion of a bitcoin. I would like some kind of proof that is its reasonable to assume you can uphold your end of the bargain as well. Can be per PM.

Edit: Added above edit notice.

I don't care if it goes to 50. Bitcoin is mathematically headed towards success in the long run.

I don't need proof. In the event of your loss, whatever happens on your end will be proof enough. As for my proof, here is one of my public keys: 1kGPm64ErfBWBnfaGXnZtFaRhJuWiZiUY.

Additionally, I live in Denmark. A week or so on the public teat would satisfy my end of the bet.

One of you will be getting something to make it an extra happy new year. It's nice to see people putting money where their mouth is.

"Mathmatically headed towards success." I will memorize this statement, so I can drop it here and there.. ;D

Do we even know to what extent Bitcoin is traded for speculative purposes? Is daytrading a major factor at all?
I would not bet on it. Consider that there is a large amount of capital flowing through Bitcoin money transmitters and adoption is on the rise.

ya.ya.yo!

https://blockchain.info/de/tx/6e14f483fbf756fa2ac6b4b82b196c18ceca3d9375ed234eee79e4c96ac82db7

is that "by the end of 2015"? can I participate too? :)

Yeah sure. And the next one too, and everyone else. And i end up driving the price up by buying a thousand BTC which i expect to be worth less by then and end up with the hassle of having to deal with everyone i´m supposed to get money from.

(In case the sarcasm detector is malfunctioning, that is a "No")

Too bad because it's like a bet with over 90% win chance, imho. If the bet is, over 500 at any time at or before end of 2015, that'll be like 99.9% :)
I am even 80% sure we will see 500 at some time before the end of this year, so I can bet you that :)

I wouldnt be surprised to shortly see above $500 again this year. Fairly sure that level wont hold though. Consider the chance of that happening well below 20% (otherwise i wouldnt have done the bet, obviously).

The problem with being a Bitcoin bear is what when you are right, it is so rare and you are so used to criticism that you gain hubris and gloat.  This exposes your soft underbelly to the world.  Don't forget that bulls have horns.

How's that soft underbelly feeling today?

While you "dont need proof" i dont want to proof that you arent just linking some random address. The amount sent should be sufficient to pay for an answer.
No answer, no deal. Simple as that.

Sending the message as a PM as well.

What are you on about? I sent your 0.0001 back to the address it came from. What were you expecting precisely?

Sorry, had a stale browser cache somewhere.
I officially excuse myself.

Without seeing the numbers, I would say the majority of Bitcoin transactions are still for the most part because of speculative purposes, as opposed to people buying actual goods with it.

what about the dark web black markets? thats a massive community involving billions of dollars in transactions every year, they buy coins and spend them for goods or services. they're not speculators, maybe a few of the merchants are but certainly not all of them or there wouldn't be people who sell fiat on those markets.

if bitcoin would go considerably lower than now after a 9 months decline and the paypal news i'd consider it failed and move to the next coin with lower inflation, really.

Freakin' inflation killed it.

Buy some Uno, they got the inflation-part right. It can replace bitcoin any day. Not a problem. Cut the freakin' inflation.

Lower than 300$ --> dump it, never look back. Wait for the halvings. Till 2016 it'll be back to 50$ or 10$ then. Hold some Uno to save your day.

Hmm, if you want a low inflation coin why wouldnt you go for Doge instead? And is also accepted by PayPal.

And the alternative is.... Unobtainium? :P

Hit the magical ignore button and OP will be gone shortly. The more you reply, the more food you give to the troll. Discussion about the matters he brings up is pointless since he can't even make a point.

well, if it would have been uno in the situation of bitcoin with same amount of total coins but different rewarddecrease we would probably be now in a bullmarket since mid-summer and at 2000$ a coin. Just sayin'. Bitcoins inflation sucks ass right now. 

Geez, completely forgot about this bet. Looks like everything happened as expected.