Bitcoin Forum

Much good news and the price slowly falls. What is up? I've heard a lot of discussion about Dell and Overstock flooding the market with surplus btc and piutting downward pressure on price. What about all the stolen BTC that is out there? Not just gox alone either, there are tons of scams operating/btc stolen. many different actors. even if they try to sell off slowly, several could be driving the market down simultaneously without even realizing.

The concept doesnt seem to come up much or get much traction, what are your thoughts on this?

I think this is exactly what is happening.  Other people seeing it go down and panic selling are just escalating it. 

I could definitely see big companies like Dell constantly dumping their BTC being a slight factor in price, but I'm pretty sure Overstock holds a decent percentage, and they also donate lots to cryptocurrency advocate groups.

As far as the price goes though, I just wish I had more fiat cash to buy up some good cheap coins.

Well you still have 3600 coins mined every single day. Maybe half of those are sold. If there's no demand for 1800 or so daily, meaning ~$1m new buys per day, the price must come down.

According to bitcoinity over the last 30 days the volume of coins traded on the exchanges has been about 4 million. Even if the number of stolen coins was 1 million they would have had plenty of time and volume to sell all those coins long time now.

Can anyone point to blockchain forensics that would support the theory that hacked/stolen/scammed coins are being dumped?

This seems like a plausible theory for why there is downward price pressure.

Blinken, how do those volumes correspond to historical averages?

Sooner or later, all continuous sellers run out of BTC. Think about the long game here, don't be made a fool of.

Whatever artificial downward pressure is being applied here, if any, it will be reabsorbed on the way up when someone runs out. The only way to get Bitcoin to lose value  against fiat forever is to move backwards through time. Move forwards through time, it gains forever until the day fiat ceases to exist.

This is an immutable, self-evident, mathematical truth. Two technologies fulfilling the same purpose usually do not coexist for very long, in historical terms. The old way dies, naturally, as the new grows to take it's place.

http://hvelleca.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/s-curve.gif

Bitcoin is on the right side of the chart. The surviving side. Fiat money is not. That's the big picture, folks.

the bigger companies adobt BTC the more it drops.

This.

The end.

-B-

There are numerous examples of competing technologies coming along, growing a little, then fizzling out, as the status quo remains.

Millions of examples.   It is not a given that the new technology competing with the existing one will overtake and succeed.

Not sure where you got that.   Though its a very nice thought, and we all hope it will pan out that way.

-B-

Just hang on until the next halving

The stock market is providing much better returns right now.
They have moved their money from bitcoin to the stock markets.

The consensus here is that it is happening due to alibaba IPO, that happened today.

The fact we already see a small recover seems to confirm it

Don't forget companies that actually ship miners and accept bitcoin need to also
have day to day operating cash and must at some point exchange btc for fiat to pay bills.

Some companies, that are making money out of selling miners and mining with them could also affect price big time if they need cash.

if this were true then we would all need to escape Bitcoin and fall over to Litecoin as Litecoin is the newer of crypto compared to Bitcoin?Oh but wait we still have newer and more emerging coins with different POW styles X11 X13 what about those, are they not the newer technology in the group? if the old way dies and the new grows to take its place by your theory, what about all the new different POW coins coming out,

The survival of any currency is not its technology, it is not its transaction speeds, it is a few other things, security, user friendliness and most important DEMAND. Bitcoin has absolutely no way to replace Fiat (at this stage) , if it did the banks would be settling ways to end it now. the banks see us as nothing more than a mosquito flying around that can be easily crushed, but much like Mosquitos we do not slap them until we notice them, we usually notice them when they bite us. As of now with no true demand Bitcoin is only flying around the banks, it has not set down and taken a bite out and the banks know that.


Situations like this are EXACTLY why the banks are not scared of Bitcoin, its own community does not support its future, even the manufactures of the equipment used in securing its transactions dont trust it enough to hold on to it, they dump ity as fast as they get it. there is no real innovation in the coins future, just innovation in its transaction process, which by the way is open source and can be used by any company as a financial transaction process like for example APPLE huh?

Still quite some time away.  :)

Round about 2020 supply and demand will be the other way around. More coins needed than mined making bitcoin go sky-high :)

That sounds plausible to me. On top of that there's the fear the Ethereum team will start dumping their IPO Bitcoins again.

The Ethereum team plans to exchange their BTC holdings into fiat over a period of time.
So that should have already been factored in.

I agree, plus people generally do not consider stolen bitcoin to be an "investment" instead they consider it a way to make money so if they are going to sell the bitcoin they will do so right away.

I would doubt that most bitcoin thieves would wait to sell their bitcoin as they can simply use a mixer like bitcoinfog and/or bitmixer.io to hide where the stolen coins went.

In fact, when scammers/thieves sell bitcoins, there is always a chance that it might be bought by a newbie who can again be scammed. :D

You could easily say the opposite as well. There is demand for bitcoin by a number of people, mainly by people who are wanting to start using it. I would argue that the price declines are merely the result of "normal" price cycles of a maturing currency

I notice they withdrew 1,024.7595 BTC on 2014-09-18

https://blockchain.info/address/36PrZ1KHYMpqSyAQXSG8VwbUiq2EogxLo2

Another 1,202.416 BTC withdrawal shows up in the IPO address on 2014-09-11.

LTC doesn't provide any significant new technology above BTC.
It's just something like a Chinese copy of bitcoin. Just like there are hundreds of fiat currencies. But bitcoin is significant other than fiat currencies.