Bitcoin Forum

Only 2k BTC left.

https://i.imgur.com/D4o9sNo.png

Shorts are also on 4 months high 11,171.42 BTC - higher since beginning of the May.

It looks that there is no motivation for opening new shorts. Why if we all know that bitcoin will go to $0 :)

So if there is no short motivation, there will be long motivation + now fiat coming on exchanges tomorrow.

Nah, I wouldn't worry about "new money" if I were shorting. I'd be more worried about the short squeeze. The ATH may or may not result in one, but surely the ammo for one is there. But I wouldn't be confident that new fiat is going to fuel any rally.

Also long squeeze is possible, BUT there is no ammo for pushing price down. So stable price + increased difficulty + new money (there is a lot on exchanges waiting for green light)  is almost guarantee that we are near (or were already) bottom.

You are too much fixated on the shorts - three days ago at 450 you were calling to closing shorts (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=787763.0).

Yes I did. As we all know, trading is a process. You can pump a tire over the recommended limit, but you can not do this indefinitely.

Thing is, I don't think Bitfinex can move the market. That's why you see the huge wicks on the rallies. Shorts getting squeezed/stopped out at the top. I don't think they can really push the price down. The question is whether China/Stamp do it for them.

Ok China/Stamp... But who will sell its coins? Late bitcoiners ( October 2013 and younger) were already tested in April 2014. For older bitcoiner this drop is a perfect buying opportunity.

So only miners are left, but they also have their limits. I think that text difficulty change on Thursday (+20.22%) will confirm my speculation that we reached the bottom.

We need higher difficulty to reduce the amount each miner is getting :).

why? you are speculating that with the next difficulty it will be harder to obtain coins.

but that was actually easier for the previous 4 months because miners are selling hard.

I don't know who's selling. May not just be miners. But yes, with miners, I think of their limits as when they will shut down operations due to unprofitability -- but I think the biggest operations are still considerably profitable and will maintain selling pressure for some time until something fundamentally changes. But, to my original point, there are also early adopters to think about. Merchants. And don't underestimate the ability of yesterday's hodlers to be tomorrow's panic sellers.

No. miners will start holding their coins. Instead of selling their coins, they will take a fiat loan to pay their expenses.

So there will not be ~3600 new BTC on market.  It happened before...

why would they take a loan if they are taking progfts even at this stage (like I do)?

you are assuming that all miners got the same expenses, but that is not true. someone is not paying for his hardware at all, and others got very cheap electricity.

How do you know? Do you run a large mining operation? (I don't mean some rigs in your apartment, etc, but multimillion dollar farms)

I think we may be at a considerably different part of the "cycle", so to speak, in bitcoin's price discovery, than when miners were withholding coins from market. This time, we have a much longer term bear market to consider. The fact is, large operations have bills to pay in fiat at the end of the day. Same goes for merchants. Loans? How long will that hold up?

And what about the people who might be losing hope? I'm still bullish on the long term, but I'm pretty open to a longer term bear market than we've seen here.

You misunderstand what the difficulty means.
If you increase the total hashing rate blocks would be generated faster and faster.
To counteract this the difficulty increases.
There are more and more miners (machines, not necessarily new entities) working on solving blocks.
Difficulty is there so the amount of bitcoins mined stays roughly the same no matter how high the hashrate is.
Because currently the hashrate is growing quite fast block emission times on average are actually a bit shorter than they should be.
The reason for this is that the difficulty re-targets after 2016 blocks. Simply put, if a miner goes online right after a difficulty re-target
there is more hashing power than anticipated so blocks are, on average, being solved faster than they should be.

Many "late" bitcoiners who bought around ATH and withstood April's "test" now finally became weak hands and dumped at $4xx with losses over 50%.
I personally know such individuals - they are really scared and believe that bitcoin is dying. BTW many of them invested much more than they can afford to lose.