Bitcoin Forum

http://www.btcpredictions.com

System has been very accurate the past few days (you can see this in the actual price vs prediction comparison charts), which hopefully indicates that it will be for the next couple days as well. Shows price going to about $420 in 24 hours and then about $475 by this Thursday. Of course, now that I'm posting about it the price will probably plummet lol

One lone prediction calling a rise. Since I do not have any more fiat left I will chose to believe this :P

475 by Thursday will be heaven.

I need that 475 thursday. Too bad its probably not going to happen though... boring price lately

I have not seen this site before, did you make it?

Anybody tried something similar with SVM or random forest?

I did make the site and I'm still working on improving it. Idk what SVM or random forest are though

I believe SVM (Support Vector Machines (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Support_vector_machine)) could give a better prediction since neural networks tend to overfit. Past behaviour doesn't predict future results and all that.

Today's bitstamp high was about $406, not much different to today's low. Their system seems slightly inaccurate today.

I don't know much about support vector machines but I'll look into them, although overfitting is not really a problem for me with this.

Past behavior does predict future behavior to a degree though. However, it is not always accurate or simple to calculate. This isn't a characteristic of the fact that it's a neural network vs support vector machine though - it's a limitation of the input data that I'm using. Because what you say is partially true, I am looking into using additional forms of data that could potentially indicate price, and how this data could be implemented as inputs in a neural network or as part of some other function that would help calculate predictions.

I'm also expecting a spike on Thursday.  My reasons are karmic, don't ask ;)

I'd just follow RyanindaClem's thread!

Actually, I do check out your website periodically and I appreciate that it is out there.

Congrats you were correct.

Kind of, $430 on September 23 or 48 hours after you predicted it would surpass $420 by September 22 or 24 hours.

Would be really cool if you added in Previous 7 Days, Previous 30 Days etc with a real chart alongside the prediction. To see how it all is going.

Very funny site. Currently, while BTC is still around $430 the 24h chart is at a flat $400 :)

Yay up 7% to 425 USD/btc https://winkdex.com/
Nice gain!

> 500 within 7-10 days

Woohoo! I'll call this a win.


Sometimes it takes a bit of time to update and respond it changes. The longer term charts take longer to respond.


Right now you can do that with the 24 hour predictions. You can go back and see charts comparing predictions to actual prices. There is a link above the chart. Before I make any more significant changes to the website though I want to get an actual web developer to rewrite all of the code and make everything cleaner and nicer looking. The code is horribly messy because this is the first web development I've ever done and I had no idea what I was doing when I started to make this.

If I was you I'd be pretty pleased with that!

As of now we are at 440. 9% up today!

Lol the site didn't predict this. Nobody knew these news about PayPal would have such huge impact.. No, not even that site..

What if news does not move price like this? Also, are you sure that you fully comprehend the potential of a predictive learning algorithm?

As one who usually argues that long-term trends in BTC are not at all news driven: it's pretty obvious that THIS move was news driven.

Also, a price pattern recognizer may actually be good at predicting a market's responsiveness to positive news. But it will of course not be able to predict WHEN the news happens.

Cum hoc ergo propter hoc is a logical fallacy.

I don't think this price change was news driven at all. There have been plenty of significantly larger news events that have had a smaller or no effect at all on bitcoin price. For example, Dish network or Dell accepting bitcoin, both of which are significantly larger companies than paypal. The Dell one in particular. To be honest, I didn't even know what news you were referring to - I had to go look it up.

news doesn't effects price, poeple pressing buttons effects price.

news is just an excuse to press or to hold off pressing which ever button you where going in the first place.

There's not long until Thursday when we find out if the second half of the prediction was right.

It is still showing a small spike around wed/thurs but it is considerably smaller now. Doesn't seem to be predicting upper $400s anymore but we'll see what happens.

Hopefully it goes higher. Happy that it hit $435 today! Breaking 500 this weekend would be awesome. Can 1000$ be our christmas gift? What were we at last christmas?

Unfortunately predictions look to be pointing downward now =/ hopefully they are wrong though!