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Title: the startup curve - see where bitcoin is? Post by: bitcoinBull on May 08, 2012, 09:57:11 AM Paul Graham's Startup Curve (http://www.avc.com/a_vc/2012/03/the-startup-curve.html) http://www.futurelab.net/sites/default/files/upload/startup-curve.png Quote Many people think startups are up and to the right all the time. But more services exhibit this "startup curve" than any other growth pattern. We recovered from the "crash of ineptitude" and are now entering "wiggles of false hope". The VC bubble is tremendous (FB for $100B anyone?), and Payments is one of the hottest spaces. Bitcoin is the only truly disruptive player in the game. It has traction and plenty of runway. Regulatory hurdles on the internet are a laughable concept. The Force of the network effect is with bitcoin, but do not be alarmed if we experience some turbulence during take off. Please take your seats and fasten your belts for Lift-off in T-minus.. Title: Re: the startup curve - see where bitcoin is? Post by: Stephen Gornick on May 08, 2012, 10:21:23 AM Previous thread on this:
- http://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0 Title: Re: the startup curve - see where bitcoin is? Post by: ElectricMucus on May 08, 2012, 11:10:10 AM oh it's this thread again...
::) Has been thoroughly debunked in the last thread. tip: try to match either price, difficulty webstats, anything to it, it just doesn't fit. Title: Re: the startup curve - see where bitcoin is? Post by: bitcoinBull on May 08, 2012, 11:31:49 AM oh it's this thread again... Sorry about the dupe, should have known. Completely missed the first one: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=69039.0). three possible charts: 1. Paul Graham's Startup Curve 2. Rodrigue's Stages of a Bubble (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Paul_Rodrigue) 3. Gartner Hype Cycle (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hype_cycle) Title: Re: the startup curve - see where bitcoin is? Post by: ElectricMucus on May 08, 2012, 11:50:53 AM at least you looked into it now. :)
We could say that difficulty has followed the granter hype cycle so far, but as far as price goes you cannot match it to either of those curves if you don't leave out some essential element. Price could at some point mimic the startup curve, but that would imply we stay at USD 5 for a full year, crash briefly and then take off. (But then the slope of wearing off novelty would be too flat) Very different from the scenario you are proposing in the OP. The Trough of Sorrow cannot from this scheme be very short and has to be a substantial length at least as long as the other periods. We haven't been stable for that amount of time yet. All in all this is not a good model for expectations on prices. this on the other hand could match the slope almost perfectly, (although with bitcoin it's more extreme) http://static.safehaven.com/authors/kirtley/20755_a.png But it would imply falling prices till we are at 2-3 again... (We would be at 1984-85 right now, possible sooner that depends on whenever you compress the timescales or not) |
