Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: Elwar on September 30, 2014, 09:55:23 AM



Title: Call the bottom
Post by: Elwar on September 30, 2014, 09:55:23 AM
We have never hit a previous high after a new spike in the price so we are close to the bottom.

What price do you believe will be the low.

Note: The trolls who have posted anything indicating that they have absolutely no confidence in Bitcoin are on my ignore list because I come here to discuss Bitcoin. I go to bankrate.com to find out how the dollar is doing.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Hunyadi on September 30, 2014, 09:58:05 AM
Low 352.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: intighet on September 30, 2014, 09:59:51 AM
Previous low at $365 should hold for the next 4 months or so 8)


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Dalmar on September 30, 2014, 10:03:13 AM
somewhere between $85 and $266.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: im0rtel on September 30, 2014, 10:03:22 AM
 its going down down down to the ground. btc by the end of the year will be around 200 $ on a downwards trend.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: zby on September 30, 2014, 10:06:52 AM
We have never hit a previous high after a new spike in the price so we are close to the bottom.
...

Past performance ...

But it also depends on how you define 'spike' - maybe 266 was not an individual spike - but was just a part of the run up to 1200?


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: DeadCoin on September 30, 2014, 10:12:36 AM
"What will be the bottom price before the long climb? "

I can't answer because I don't believe there will be another long climb.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: EuroTrash on September 30, 2014, 10:17:13 AM
We have never hit a previous high after a new spike in the price so we are close to the bottom.

Never say never.

There could be a quick and painful dip below 266.

Personally I am hodling on cold storage atm but were I not doing so, in order to try and sleep safe at night (lol @ this... as if that's even possible when most of your money is a number in a bitcoin exchange), today I'd leave a catch-all bid at 280$.

Long climb or not, BTC USD price has always been asymptotically proportional to the estimated transaction volume in USD (https://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume-usd?timespan=1year&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=1&address=) which is slowly rising even while the price is declining. There will be a time when the transaction volume will be enough to sustain the price. That will be the bottom.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Elwar on September 30, 2014, 10:18:12 AM
But it also depends on how you define 'spike' - maybe 266 was not an individual spike - but was just a part of the run up to 1200?

With a 6 month cool down period?

There are 3 clear spikes in price over the last few years.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Ultros on September 30, 2014, 10:19:33 AM
Between 266 and 310 would be my guess.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: silverston on September 30, 2014, 10:25:55 AM
"What will be the bottom price before the long climb? "

I can't answer because I don't believe there will be another long climb.
+


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: UnDerDoG81 on September 30, 2014, 11:08:30 AM
Looks like the ship has a leak and has started sinking slowly. I own over 100 coins and I will sink with this ship. HODLING! Bought at 680, you can guess how much loss it will be  :-\


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: nobbynobbynoob on September 30, 2014, 11:14:23 AM
Hodl to the death.

Likely bottom, speculatively, is around $300ish for reasons that Elwar has already given.

The absolute lowest possible bottom is of course $0. It's part of the inherent risk and the reason why bitcoin gains aren't "free moniez".


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: wobber on September 30, 2014, 11:38:15 AM
at around 200s give or take. If we'd go to even 199.99 there would lots of buys, so I doubt it will go to 1xx.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: pitham1 on September 30, 2014, 06:38:58 PM
I don't think it will go below $330..


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: zoinky on September 30, 2014, 06:44:49 PM
284.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: intighet on September 30, 2014, 07:02:02 PM
Previous low at $365 should hold for the next 4 months or so 8)

Here we go!


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Roy Badami on September 30, 2014, 09:30:07 PM
I'm 50/50 on this.  Either yesterday's low of $365 was the bottom, or $365 fails and we retest the 11 April low of $339.

roy


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Malin Keshar on September 30, 2014, 09:44:25 PM
somewhere aroung the 300's

We might have already reached the bottom

Or not


You can gamble and try your luck by buying now


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: wilth1 on September 30, 2014, 09:50:39 PM
360+ (already)

OR

280-300 between 10/4 and 10/7


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Odalv on September 30, 2014, 09:50:54 PM
339.79 (april 12)


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: yayayo on September 30, 2014, 10:02:02 PM
You should add ranges instead of single price points to the poll.

I think we've most likely already seen the bottom and stabilization is about to begin. I think that this stabilization period will at least take another year or more, during which Bitcoin will slowly appreciate against fiat before entering mania again. The next mania phase will likely be triggered by Wallstreet capital inflows and will easily surpass the previous ATH.

ya.ya.yo!


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: yokosan on September 30, 2014, 10:02:25 PM
As of Monday 6th the price will be higher than $400. The 7 day weekly average price will never be as low as it will be at the end of this week ever again within our lifetimes. I am stating that as an absolute fact.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: yayayo on October 05, 2014, 02:26:36 PM
Just few days passed and I've already been proven wrong... :-\

Now I think we'll go below $ 300 before stabilization might set in. I don't understand this negative price trend on positive news.

ya.ya.yo!



Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Muscleminer on October 05, 2014, 02:51:52 PM
Deamnd is less than mined and sold :(


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: Tzupy on October 05, 2014, 02:55:17 PM
Already 56% were wrong! LMAO... OP should have provided more flexible choices.
Below 266$ it's only 1$ and funny how many selected that! :D
And no, I don't believe it will drop to 1$. But below 266$ looks possible.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: BitcoinFX on October 05, 2014, 03:40:43 PM
Anything bellow $250 I think would be cause for concern, especially if that price is reached before the end of October, without any retracement in November.

If I remember correctly that was around the 'real' economy 'value' before Mt.Gox (and some others) probably started to artificially inflate the price. Lots of media interest around that time as well ofc which brought buy support.

~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K2ku1A5Ox8U

I'd imagine strong buy support at $100 or above from speculators alone.

~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

$1 = 1 BTC is very unlikely indeed.

~ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_wIuDH0wFQ



Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: mandular on October 07, 2014, 11:31:14 AM
266$ but I hope it will never happen.


Title: Re: Call the bottom
Post by: EuroTrash on October 09, 2014, 01:20:21 AM
Personally I am hodling on cold storage atm but were I not doing so, in order to try and sleep safe at night (lol @ this... as if that's even possible when most of your money is a number in a bitcoin exchange), today I'd leave a catch-all bid at 280$.

Just complimenting myself for the good call, how childish of me.  :P
(doesn't mean I'm confident that the shakeout is over, but the Est. USD transaction volume chart is also turning bullish)