Bitcoin Forum

I have a question for the bulls... I am not falling, or any other "troll" account. But i have a few points for the bulls and i was wondering if you could counter them...

Points
- The winklevoss etf will actually be shot down
- just kidding im not doing that



Serious points
- Miners dumping thousands of BTC a day
- A lot of people say, that the only reason BTC hit 1k+ was because of the willy bot. Not to mention there was actually proof of the willy bot on mt gox.
prior to the willy bot, btc wasnt over 250. What if right now, the dust is settling and BTC is returning to what it should naturally be. Which means right now, BTC is currently overpriced
- Merchants convert BTC to USD instantly

And i think it is funny. I was like everyone on this forum a few months ago. I would look at a fallllling thread and laugh, not only at the grammatical errors, but also his crazy predictions. However, he and all the other "trolls" here, have been correct. Maybe they didnt get the time frames right, but they sure did get the prices right. and they can come back, and warn us some more, but we probably wont listen. But the price keeps falllling...

Anyone?

Regarding trolls:
A brainless fool can yell "fire" in an oil refinery... He can even run around there with a lit match.

I blame speculation rather than any Willy bots. It was the first mainstream taste of Bitcoin, and lots of greedy people rushed in. People who didn't really understand the technology; and still don't. Maybe some are still finally cutting their losses and bailing out now. I assume professional speculators have fixed points at which they do this. Maybe a lot of those have triggered.

[also, I imagine some new speculators got in during the relative calm of the ~$600 price range, thinking that was the bottom. Maybe they are now getting out again. Maybe Draper is selling his coins!?]

Most any bull you meet is uncertain in the short term about price, but still long term bullish.

I don't know what you want to hear, but it is easy to start believing in false prophets when the times are hard. When there's blood on the streets, there's always a bunch of crazies announcing the end times; that is human nature, to seek like minded people to ease own pain.

Willy bot was on Mtgox, right ... but on the other exchanges it was not the Willy bot but real money, driving prices over $1000.

Arbitrage from Gox to others was not possible because Gox did not pay out; thus; people with real money looked at Gox and bought (either at Gox or another exchange).

That real money that went into BTC at all other exchanges back then, is not gone, it is just sitting somewhere, and could return into BTC.

Actually it is not sitting somewhere... It is literally being dumped on the market now ever since $300

The main rebuttal is long-term vs. short-term thinking. Let's assume the worst case: Miners dump everything every day, all assertions in Willy report are absolutely true, and merchant-selling pressure is in $millions every day. ... Ok, what does *any* of that change about bitcoin's potential market size, the trajectory of adoption, VC investment, ecosystem development, etc? Does that have any influence on the core proposition that bitcoin is a key advance in the technology of money, that the protocol works and is battle-tested, and that bitcoin has huge potential to increase the efficiency of global transactions, as well as to eat into gold's status as the go-to fiat-inflation hedge?

Now, what are the market sizes of those targets, what would 1BTC need to be worth in order to satisfy a reasonable portion of some set of those markets, and what is the probability that bitcoin will get there? Those are the questions you need to ask and quantitatively answer in order to arrive at a rational decision as to whether you think bitcoin is currently undervalued or overvalued.

tl;dr: At least for me, the bull-case is not about short-term dynamics, it's about the long-run (10yrs+). But I've never been a trader, so interpret as you see fit.

Ok, now for some biggies:

-) Bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster
-) No incentive for nodes to relay transactions once the block subsidy has demised.
-) There are Governments who actually do ban Bitcoin itself.

One about the fundamentals of life on earth, one about the fundamentals of the protocol and one about the fundamentals of society.

-Miners gotta make money, gotta pay bills.. Nothing we ca do about that.
-btc hit $1000 due to mass panic buying and media coverage.
-Not all, Overstock keeps some for the long term.


As a BTC bull, I'd like to remind you that this is the last time you're gonna see this type of swings. The early adopters/market manipulators have one last go at it. Once the ETF launches we wont be talking about little money like we are today. Today its easy to move the market around with a few million bucks. Think about how hard it going to be be though once that ETF hits. Now were talking aboutevery financial market around the world having a vehicle to invest in bitcoin. One that's safe, trusted and regulated. I'm talking about trillion dollar markets being able to cash out a bit and hedge in btc.


Bitcoin to the moon fellas.....

Very nice post! "The early adopters/market manipulators have one last go at it."

To the moon! Lots of rockets fail the first few times. We are going to make it there and I can tell you the Earth looks beautiful from the moon -- wait for the view, we are going to enjoy it. :)

So when will the bitcoin rocket fail for the first time??  ;D

Posts like this make me happy. It's proof that there are dumbasses in every generation of adoption, not just the most recent one.

Ecology, or more properly in this context, global warming (later renamed global climate change) is a modern superstition. One of many. Humans need something to believe in and with god being dead and all, new ones had to be invented. This is not a conscious process, but real nonetheless.

The mining reward is not just the block subsidy. It's also transfer fees. As traffic increases and reward halves the subsidy will play a smaller part and transfer fees a larger one. Remains to be seen how effective this will be, but that is the idea.

Government bans are bullish. It legitimizes bitcoin as a serious product, if not a threat. Has no to positive effect on the black market, which is huge - some say bigger than the legal market.

Look, you can go down or up, the fact that you say up or down and it's like you said,

IT DOESN'T MEAN you know anything.

The way falling and his alter ego talked is the the way of a hater or a well paid troll.

No U.


1. Even if you don't believe in climate change the ecological impact of using energy in that matter is an issue. Ignorance of these issues are wide spread amongst right wing libertarians nut I can still blame you for your ignorance of the subject. Do you deny that ecological responsibility is necessary for sustained survival?

2. You seem to lack understanding of the issue: The transfer fees are exactly the problem, they provide a counter-incentive for nodes to relay transactions.
see: http://research.microsoft.com/apps/pubs/default.aspx?id=156072

3. Typical Anacap Hubris, do you really believe that yourself?

One doesn't have to think that climate change is a superstition to argue against the idea that bitcoin mining is an ecological disaster.

Another talk of the ETF lol!!! What will you guys do when this ETF that is suppose to dig this coin out of the trenches doesn't even release?!

I'm all ears.

There was a video on this that I watched the other day. I'm trying to track it down.

A few million dollars a month needed for mining.

Banking industry spends billions per month just for keeping the lights on.

The remittance industry charges tens of billions per year just in fees.

As someone who has started working in a foreign country getting paid in dollars...I have seen first hand how Bitcoin is a huge advantage over wire transfer and currency conversion.

For example, my mother came out to visit me here in germany. She exchanged $1000 to 715 euros before she came out through her bank. That is not including what it would have cost to wire it over here if she was not flying.

I sold roughly 3 bitcoins for 900 euros through localbitcoins, then I bought that same amount of bitcoins on CoinBase for $1024. The conversion should have been $1000 for 750 euros (at the time).

Why would I use anything other than Bitcoin? Sell me on using Western Union.

I did not expect this from an old member like ElectricMucus.... But here it goes:


The easiest way to argue this is that we also consume electricity to operate and run other money transfer systems. It is unfair to pinpoint "an ecological disaster" to Bitcoin ignoring the multitudes of power consumption other systems do (Be fair and extend this power usage to all facilities and personnel consumption whenever they have a "role" in these systems). Bitcoin is designed to be different, not perfect. this is the real world not a Utopia.


And what is the current incentive? if you want to point at block subsidy you forgot the transaction fees and bitcoin exchange rate. The transactions were being relayed when they worth nothing.


Old old idea. Got shattered by the FBI report and Germany public statement regarding Bitcoin. Face it Bitcoin protocol spits on the face of censorship. They will feel offended for a while before opening up to it.

The ETF won't do anything to the underlying asset. If they are buying their BTC via exchanges, you have exactly the same risks than buying BTC directly and no one will help you if anything goes wrong.

I think in the short term they may continue to be pain, but in the long term all the things that are causing pain (i.e. merchant adoption causing merchants to dump BTC) will end up getting BTC adopted enough to a point where it's value will skyrocket.  Unfortunately I think legal rules and regulations haven't really caught up to BTC and as of right now the IRS' rules have an unfortunate depressant effect on the price.  But I have faith that this will be worked out as governments grapple with cryptocurrency.  Bitcoin is here to stay and it *will* be worth so much more someday, it's just not clear when that day will come.

In the meantime load up on cheap coins while you can.  I do think that once ETFs come into play though there will be a jump in price from larger investors moving in.

1. Technology will improve, chips will become more efficient, driven by the next run up and all the free money to be made ;)
2. Transaction fees
3. State gambling laws. Drugs. Prohibition. Digital "Piracy". Human desires trump law every time.

Your examples are certainly friction, but none of them are showstoppers (imho).

You dont know what you're talking about. Leave now please and let the serious investors talk.

1. Chips becoming more efficient doesn't solve the problem. As long as Bitcoin has the risk of a 50+% attack the dollars to get 50% is the level of security. Not the hash rate. With Bitcoin rising in price mining will cost more and more. With 1000x the market cap of today it is likely that mining will consume 1000x more dollars. I think Bitcoin can only solve this with new features to complicate a 50%+ attack.

2. Sure. But this could make transactions very costly. But there are ways to reduce the relay cost of a transaction...
3. If Bitcoin gets banned, this is not good. But I don't think this will happen in the capitalist counrties...

The 50% attack is only ever used by people that don't really understand it. The white paper itself explains why, assuming rational actors, its just not worth it. Then there is the simple fact that 50% doesn't guarantee anything (its just a bit more likely than if you had 49%). It just tips the odds slightly in your favour. In actually fact you are going to want more than half to have anything more than a marginal chance of being able to do what you want with the blockchain.

The only real threat is a malicious actor that only had the total destruction of BTC in mind. I can't argue against that possibility, stranger things have happened. Seems unlikely someone would spend all that money on mining BTC in order to see it fail? I can think of cheaper ways. (corner the market etc)

Well, someone is always right with their predictions, in these bear markets, it's falllling and his sockpuppets... In a couple months or years, they won't be right anymore, that's the way things go! We stayed at these prices, even if the Willy bot was off for months already, I wouldn't expect too much of it, to be honest!

Actually that is your only hope... Have you ever considered this might actually be a market top?!  ???

We'll all be rich!  http://www.pic4ever.com/images/m141.gifhttp://www.pic4ever.com/images/m141.gif http://www.pic4ever.com/images/m141.gif
http://s3.amazonaws.com/beZambee/smiley_images/90/2bab5fe54dcb23899c48ce3bea9511827545c5ae.png?1322282255

Down trend didn't stop with the brief recovery.

Price chart still painting all over the place in the last 12 hours.

Found it. Let me know what you think about his perspective: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLsKx39mWqI

LMFAO! Because you really know better than an insider who is dumping over $7mil in coins!!! Keep loading up.......

Thanks, that's a little boring to watch since I already know what to response (I watched the prior chat about the conclusions and a little of the talk itself)

He's making one fatal error in his assessment: Bitcoin mining scales linearly with market cap.
The amount of value representing Gold & Fiat Money aren't considered in his comparisons, but they should.

The ecology should be represented in value per energy not absolute energy. The amount of value both in market cap and transaction value is so much higher with Gold and Fiat money that it distorts the conclusions he makes. I also don't think that energy efficacy will improve to that extent (it won't tend to zero if Bitcoin remains important). So far the power consumption has been increasing linearly with market price and more efficient machines simply did only offset it during the transition with even higher power consumption overall in the long run.
I'd like to see a trend of power efficiency in [Transactions/Joule] and see where that is headed. I doubt you can extrapolate an asymptotic trend. I think it's linear perhaps slightly logarithmic.

The last point is you wouldn't want to exclude the manufacturing costs of mining equipment nor the cost of exchange infrastructure if you compare it to the operational costs of banks.

Yess buy Buy buy!

sure, sure. I am aware of the probabilities. It doesn't matter in that respect. Compare to get 1% of the hashing power will cost you 1000$ or 1billion $. What is more secure? On the other hand the dollar investment will always get determined by the expected return. At $300 $1.1mio get created every day. So running the miners will not cost more than 1.1Mio. So if the price 10fold it is likely that mining will cost 10times more.

So efficiency doesn't solve that problem. Mining today is much more efficient compared to 2011 but much more electricity gets used.

Don't use new technology...

cuz the environment

http://www.activegarage.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/Project-Luddite.png

How much energy used is irrelevant because e=mc² or because volcanos or because sunshine.

This bear rally has a major advantage - after some months you can buy cheap bitcoins from bagholders for double digits price :D I'm waiting patiently for the collapse of the 2011 log-linear trendline :) A new ATH will be within a few years, after despair phase ;)

Another major advantage is everyone who is selling now can buy back double their coins at a later time! Also traders seem to be making a killing shorting this thing down

Just for the info, mining will cost more than half a billion of dollars at $10.000 for BTC (after next halving).

+1
But the question is if Bitcoin as a payment network would be still more efficient than the banking system today. The math is not so easy because not every task in finance will be automated to 100% by Bitcoin.

In my opinion Bitcoin as a network is not efficient enough to stay the #1 in cryptos forever. POS and other ways to process and secure transactions are more efficient.

well, banks are very efficient, they create money from thin air with fractional banking, for a few cents per million

just that this is scamming and enslaving everyone, so ... yes slavery is efficient

Is this current bitcoin CENTRALIZED industry you guys are creating any better?? Please explain why

Stopped reading after eft shot down

Still falling..

Making sure that I'm following you: Are you saying that if the Bitcoin market cap increases to the level that fiat money or gold currently maintain, that you think the total amount of energy required to secure the system could never be reduced by way of efficiency gains to have it be relatively similar to the total energy that is used to secure those other stores of value? Just putting this out there, but this phenomenon of increased energy efficiency developments, whenever involving something that humans value, has historically caused the total amount used to increase with most, if not all, such resources.