Bitcoin Forum

So this is my interpretation of recent events.

It seems obvious that most trading happens outside exchanges, given the actual transfers on the blockchain vs the volume on exchanges. Likewise that most weak hands were gone months ago. So what happened was that someone with a lot of money pushed the price down on exchanges and bought back outside of them. This would result in an increasing number of coins at little to no expense. This theory is reinforced by the fact that the top 100 btc addresses is increasing over time.

With the price approaching both psychological limits (previous ATH) and the cost of actually producing a coin in electricity, this had to stop eventually. But market sentiment was bad due to the ever-decreasing price so something was needed to regain confidence in the market. That's what the huge wall on stamp that got eaten in hours was for. Whoever was dumping the price is the same person or group who put up the wall, and who bought back the majority of it. The entire point of that exercise was to give the idea that there was huge demand that had just been waiting for the right time. The costs involved were likely to be insignificant in the grand scheme, and in any case necessary. The cost of doing business.

The next step is to slowly pump the price, making it look organic, until momentum eventually takes over and others pump the price to the next ATH.

It's up from here.

Sounds about right. But honey badger don't care about your reasonable analysis. We shall see.

I hope you're right :)

The most stupid theory I've ever heard.

Like I've said previously, the dead cat will now bounce to 370-380, before crashing to sub 250. All of this will happen in less than a fortnight.

A cat bouncing to 370 doesn't seem that dead to me!

OP, thanks for sharing your vision.


Please explain your point of view, instead of just making an empy statement. I am intested in your arguments though.

Interesting that bitstamp is higher price vs bitfinex and btc-e even after the bearwhale dump.  This shows there is a decent fiat stream running into bitstamp i'd agree with OP we finally have a bottom.

Nothing has changed about the fundamentals. Miners still have to sell coins to cover their expenses. 3600 coins are still created daily. That's a lot of sell pressure. Meanwhile, Average Joes still stay far away, due to the complexity, unsafety and lack of utility of BTC. Average Joes have safe, fast, cheap, reliable payment services, like credit cards. They don't need an unstable, incredibly slow, cumbersome, unsafe, expensive, uninsured payment system, still being beta tested after six years. Whales, early adopters and industry insiders know this. That's why they're getting rid of their coins.

And that's why Bitcoin will continue towards double digits, as soon as this particular dead cat bounce is over.

Please remember that every previous Bitcoin bubble was fueled by Willy, Markus and other Gox bots. Those bots are long gone, so there won't be any more rallies.

fuck me!

I was reading that in practically full agreement, and then I looked up, and it was fucking Ibian!

Exactly my interpretation of the huge volume ask walls ans the inexplicable appetite to eat up those walls.


That may well be the plan, but whether or not there is enough appetite in the market for another bull run anytime soon is quite another matter. Somehow, I feel we are at a very different psychological stage compared to any previous point in the Bitcoin market.

$275 may have been the bottom as it is the .764 fib retracement level from the entire rally from $2 to $1163.

you said on 5 october that we will bounce back to 200

where is your stupid prediction now?


miner aren't the problem

early adopter are, because they control a large amount

miner amount is fixed(and also tends to a periodical halving), they can't be never the problem get over it

There was always problem early adopters, that will cripple Bitcoin forever ever.

Seem like the bottom is really over now, time to buy...

The bottom might be really but there's nothing pointing to a trend reversal. Price can hover to 320-360 for a loooong time now.

I have 0 faith that we will see >450 this year.

That is sad, we need some big positive news to drive BTC up...

Lol. Thanks for making me nearly shoot coffee out of my nose!

I corrected something that was wrong re safe and cheap.
I got at least three warnings lately: Target, Walmart, Home Depot
Chase break-they don't even talking about the extent of it.

I am with the OP. We seem to be in the take-off phase. We will probably get a few bears taking an unsuccesfull dump and then we get a 30day move to the ATH :D
No more <$500 after 6 months from now.

 8)

Sorry Ibian, but you can't predict the unknown just like all the other TA clowns in these boards. NO ONE knows where we are headed, we don't even know for sure if the Wallstreet investments and Wrinkelvii ETFs are happening... we don't know how many other whales are willing to dump their coins.


I don't buy the idea that whoever dumped the recent 30k coins did it as a favor to bitcoin, to make it look like there was huge demand... he did it because he simply wanted fiat instead, it could have even been stolen coins... who knows? But he didn't do any favors, he broke a lot of confidence and caused panic.... no wallstreet investor will want to touch this when whales keep reminding everyone that they have the power to sink the market

I don't think we enter now a full on bubble mode back - but the volume that we experienced will not be repeated soon and we'll probably climb quite a bit.

So a dead cat bounce of 37%?

So let me get this straight: your narrative is of bitcoin inexplicably crashing to single digits - allowing you to buy hundreds of course - before soaring back into the stratosphere and enriching you beyond your wildest dreams?

Exo, I am afraid your own theory sounds a little farfetched.

Nope. I'm not buying more coins when we hit double or single digits, if we ever get that low.

The best case scenario now is some horizontal trading in the 300-350 range. But it's unlikely. Too much sell pressure.

Gentlemen, this is the stage where we do not listen to trolls. Their dump-job is done, now they are contrary indicators.

Will I still be able to buy next week or will the price go up too much?

I don't get paid til next Wednesday :(

I missed the stage where anybody cared what they had to say :)

I can translate what he said:

"Now I am invested in bitcoin, but, in a less than a fortnight, I plan to short my position."

Then you are quite spectacularly out of touch. They have dozens of adoring fans, including the mods. Witness how any of their threads reach multi-page counts. They are possibly the most popular people around here.

Now I'm sure the price is no bottom

They just provided the entertainment which was needed while the price was slowly creeping down. Just like all the TDM threads which start popping when the price moves up 2% ;)

Nobody actually believes in the moon predictions, just that little foolishness is always funny :)

Down trend has reversed.

Tighten your seat belt, moon phase has begun.

Furthermore the $10m on bitstamp isn't for cashing out, it's for nudging the price up past any resistance... Have you seen how weirdly this thing is going up considering the doom and gloom just a few weeks ago!?

I am supposed to be back at 350 but I will gamble my profits that it WILL go below 320 this weekend.

We are at 370 now.

i gotta be honest the slip to 270 made me nervous enough to just hold and not buy any. i was thinking 266 would be too hard to break, but if it did there could be serious slippage, so i waited. foolish of me. should have bought one with my 'fuck it' money but i bought a bunch of silver instead...i can make the silver into jewelry and and easily sell it for 500% of my purchase price, so thats nice, but a lot more work than btc lol

In a normal market, yes. But if someone really is using the market as a chew toy right now, the question becomes if it would be in their interest.

Price was manipulated so that whales can get in on the cheap, then manipulated again to go up so whales can cash out on the high. Whales can and will do that that's how they make money. Actually that's how anyone makes money. Buy low sell high. But for anyone to make money another one has to lose money. And for anyone losing money another one will be making money. So simple, yet so hard to get across some people.