Title: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 11, 2014, 02:49:40 PM As usual I do bitcoincharts and bitcoinwisdom one runs low one runs high. so 1.85 to 5.07 is the guess for now.
I also added a section on diff since May of 2013 when asics started to be available via asic miner https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 35,002,482,026 Estimated Next Difficulty: 36,778,460,333 (+5.07%) Adjust time: After 1733 Blocks, About 11.5 days Hashrate(?): 254,506,225 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.6 minutes 3 blocks: 28.8 minutes 6 blocks: 57.5 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ Difficulty 35002482026 Estimated 35650025649 in 1733 blks (+1.85%). Network total 244719.395 Thash/s Blocks/hour 5.86 / 614 s Difficulty History of asics and btc I divide the diff jumps into 3 sections. I realize that cut off is arbitrary some will say I should go back to the first Avalon's of Jan 2013 for Early asic not May of 2013 but in May of 2013 asic miner was doing good sales of the little .333gh block erupters so I used May of 2013 as a starting point. With the maturity of asics growth has finally become slower. Asic maturity days So far we are about 104 days into the mature 28mn chips. So far this is about a 9.77% avg for this time period. I see it going lower then 9.77 % due to power cost and of course price in fiat. Date--------- Difficulty--- Change----- Hash Rate Oct 09 2014 35,002,482,026 0.98% 250,557,526 GH/s Sep 25 2014 34,661,425,924 16.20% 248,116,151 GH/s Sep 13 2014 29,829,733,124 8.75% 213,529,547 GH/s Aug 31 2014 27,428,630,902 15.03% 196,341,788 GH/s Aug 19 2014 23,844,670,039 20.86% 170,686,797 GH/s Aug 08 2014 19,729,645,941 5.30% 141,230,307 GH/s Jul 25 2014 18,736,441,558 8.08% 134,120,673 GH/s Jul 12 2014 17,336,316,979 3.08% 124,098,191 GH/s Asic expansion days Nov 29 2013 to June 29 2014 = 213 days about 19.22% Jun 29 2014 16,818,461,371 24.93% 120,391,236 GH/s 23.77 Jun 18 2014 13,462,580,115 14.51% 96,368,902 GH/s Jun 05 2014 11,756,551,917 12.44% 84,156,677 GH/s May 24 2014 10,455,720,138 18.10% 74,844,960 GH/s 14.782 May 12 2014 8,853,416,309 10.66% 63,375,223 GH/s Apr 29 2014 8,000,872,136 14.64% 57,272,474 GH/s Apr 17 2014 6,978,842,650 14.04% 49,956,502 GH/s Apr 05 2014 6,119,726,089 22.23% 43,806,706 GH/s Mar 24 2014 5,006,860,589 17.80% 35,840,504 GH/s 7.0783 Mar 13 2014 4,250,217,920 11.39% 30,424,245 GH/s Feb 28 2014 3,815,723,799 21.92% 27,314,015 GH/s Feb 17 2014 3,129,573,175 19.39% 22,402,357 GH/s 4.4245 Feb 05 2014 2,621,404,453 19.49% 18,764,744 GH/s Jan 24 2014 2,193,847,870 22.59% 15,704,175 GH/s Jan 13 2014 1,789,546,951 26.16% 12,810,076 GH/s Jan 02 2014 1,418,481,395 20.12% 10,153,885 GH/s Dec 21 2013 1,180,923,195 30.01% 8,453,378 GH/s Dec 10 2013 908,350,862 28.41% 6,502,229 GH/s Early asic days May 12 2013 to Nov 29 2013 = 201 days Nov 29 2013 707,408,283 16.07% 5,063,826 GH/s Nov 17 2013 609,482,680 19.29% 4,362,847 GH/s Nov 05 2013 510,929,738 30.70% 3,657,378 GH/s Oct 26 2013 390,928,788 46.02% 2,798,377 GH/s Oct 16 2013 267,731,249 41.45% 1,916,495 GH/s Oct 06 2013 189,281,249 27.19% 1,354,928 GH/s Sep 25 2013 148,819,200 32.13% 1,065,289 GH/s Sep 14 2013 112,628,549 29.56% 806,227 GH/s Sep 04 2013 86,933,018 32.22% 622,291 GH/s Aug 24 2013 65,750,060 29.40% 470,657 GH/s Aug 13 2013 50,810,339 35.88% 363,715 GH/s Aug 03 2013 37,392,766 19.63% 267,668 GH/s Jul 22 2013 31,256,961 19.47% 223,746 GH/s Jul 11 2013 26,162,876 22.63% 187,281 GH/s Jun 29 2013 21,335,329 10.32% 152,724 GH/s Jun 16 2013 19,339,258 23.92% 138,436 GH/s Jun 05 2013 15,605,633 28.41% 111,709 GH/s May 25 2013 12,153,412 8.64% 86,998 GH/s May 12 2013 11,187,257 11.03% 80,082 GH/s Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: elduderino on October 11, 2014, 04:33:26 PM Well, sorta good news.
Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 11, 2014, 08:18:06 PM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: xstr8guy on October 11, 2014, 09:38:09 PM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 11, 2014, 10:43:00 PM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( yeah I think no matter what happens home mining will never thrive again. If btc shoots up to 800 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly. If btc shoots up to 1600 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly. rinse repeat. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: btc-facebook on October 12, 2014, 12:18:22 AM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( yeah I think no matter what happens home mining will never thrive again. If btc shoots up to 800 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly. If btc shoots up to 1600 usd the diff will just catch up very quickly. rinse repeat. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: Biodom on October 12, 2014, 12:21:33 AM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: Remember remember the 5th of November on October 12, 2014, 02:45:31 AM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 12, 2014, 03:01:18 AM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd. And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up. I have 6 s-3's . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over. Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising. Hey I run my s-3's at freq 206.25. The power is lower. The hash is lower They run very quiet. They are under 40db. They are cooler. I pull 1038 watts. I get 1200Gh. I have not done any resistor mods but I will. At current diff and current btc fiat they earn more then power costs. So they run. I can afford to shut them down if they don't earn more then the power. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: xstr8guy on October 12, 2014, 09:27:15 AM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd. And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up. I have 6 s-3's . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over. Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising. Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters. They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 12, 2014, 02:10:12 PM Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters. They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet. Sometimes I believe that. Sometimes I believe they have 300ph they are holding offline so as not to shock the network with back to back 40% diff jumps. Pure conjecture on my part. But the long tubes from Asicminer are easy to build and they could be cooled in a tank of oil pretty cheaply. today's diff numbers are : https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 35,002,482,026 Estimated Next Difficulty: 36,532,953,358 (+4.37%) Adjust time: After 1589 Blocks, About 10.8 days Hashrate(?): 267,198,549 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 9.8 minutes 3 blocks: 29.4 minutes 6 blocks: 58.7 minutes http://www.bitcoincharts.com/ Difficulty 35002482026 Estimated 36005870944 in 1589 blks this is about 2.86% Network total 272813.567 Thash/s Blocks/hour 6.53 / 551 s Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: wilth1 on October 12, 2014, 07:30:32 PM Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days.
Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 12, 2014, 08:00:14 PM Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days. if you can get used s-3's on the cheap they may be worth buying if you have power under 10 cents a kwatt. there are some s-3's here and there for under 250 usd. I got a few from this seller. http://www.ebay.com/itm/BITMAIN-AntMiner-S3-ASIC-Bitcoin-BTC-Miner-B5-7-IN-HAND-Ships-in-24-hrs-from-NY-/181534774039?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item2a4450d317 Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: -ck on October 12, 2014, 08:08:09 PM Too little, too late. :( I would have said the opposite. It was too much, too soon.But myeah... same thing. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: notlist3d on October 12, 2014, 08:08:33 PM Could actually be a good gamble to expand hobby mine capacity, assuming bull runs and spikes halt for the next 30-60 days. if you can get used s-3's on the cheap they may be worth buying if you have power under 10 cents a kwatt. there are some s-3's here and there for under 250 usd. I got a few from this seller. http://www.ebay.com/itm/BITMAIN-.AntMiner-S3-ASIC-Bitcoin-BTC-Miner-B5-7-IN-HAND-Ships-in-24-hrs-from-NY-/181534774039?pt=US_Virtual_Currency&hash=item2a4450d317 I would agree the S3 is a good bang for its buck. You set it up once and basically let it run. Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches. It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's. If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 12, 2014, 09:33:55 PM Too little, too late. :( I would have said the opposite. It was too much, too soon.But myeah... same thing. Funny how english works. As for s-3's running them now reminds me when I ran sapphire 7970's and coins were 6 to 10 bucks a piece. I earned 1 to 1.5 coins a day and monthly profit was very small. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: Remember remember the 5th of November on October 12, 2014, 11:04:38 PM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd. And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up. I have 6 s-3's . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over. Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising. Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters. They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 12, 2014, 11:25:44 PM Well, sorta good news. Looks like it's as bad as ever, but not getting worse as fast for us... :-\ yeah if you look deep into the 3 periods of asics . we are dropping the diff increases. the last 104 days are under 10% avg Too little, too late. :( Exactly, we need 50% difficulty decrease in the next two months. If it does happen coins will need to drop to under 100 usd. And the problem is as soon as coins go up the diff will go up. I have 6 s-3's . I can turn them off and on with ease. They are bought and paid for 3x over. Many larger people then me can do this. I suspect bitfury, asicminer, knc, and bitmaintech can add 300ph to this network in under 2 weeks if btc price was rising. Bitfury, AM, KNC and Bitmain would add the hash power now if they had it ready. They're profitable now with the current price of bitcoin. So it wouldn't make sense for them to wait for higher bitcoin prices just to power up new datacenters. They just don't have the gear ready now or they're already adding hash in smaller increments and it's difficult to notice just yet. Yeah I can see that idea is possible but I prefer the conspiracy one better. It is a speculation thread after all. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 21, 2014, 01:47:06 AM Latest numbers look good for under 2%
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty Bitcoin Difficulty: 35,002,482,026 Estimated Next Difficulty: 35,345,438,113 (+0.98%) Adjust time: After 357 Blocks, About 2.5 days Hashrate(?): 254,316,772 GH/s Block Generation Time(?): 1 block: 10.0 minutes 3 blocks: 29.9 minutes 6 blocks: 59.8 minutes Updated: 21:35 (7.2 minutes ago) https://bitcoincharts.com/ Blocks 326235 Total BTC 13.406M Difficulty 35002482026 Estimated 35338083863 in 357 blks Network total 240333.034 Thash/s Blocks/hour 5.76 / 626 s (+0.9599%) diff jump pretty flat for this jump. will stay flat as long as btc stays low. reasons are simple most hashing is done by the builders and margins are too tight for them to build out. yeah there might be profit as low as 300. but if you are running a 30ph setup and it has paid itself off. the 30ph gets 431 coins a day. if your power is 5 cents and you use .6 watts a gh you spend 18mw a day that is 900 a day in power . 431 coins are 163000 a day so after power your profit is 162000. take salaries a few other expenses and that plant earns 150k a day. you don't need to expand. if you keep coins flat and diff flat you just make big money day after day. the interesting thing here is home miners can survive in this model. they need .8 watts a gh and 12 cent power with 3% growth and 380 usd coins .. those numbers you do roi. and if you could pull off 2% diff jumps you make pretty good money. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: mmeijeri on October 21, 2014, 11:40:05 AM yeah there might be profit as low as 300. but if you are running a 30ph setup and it has paid itself off. Whether you've paid it off doesn't matter, whether you've bought it is what matters. Sunk cost fallacy. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: HellDiverUK on October 21, 2014, 12:24:43 PM Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches. It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's. If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math. I just got a S3+ off eBay for £200. It's basically unused. I'm running it to replace a clutter of older Avalon-based ASIC boards that drank 1kW for about 180GH. The S3+ is doing a shade under 500GH with 360W at the wall. I'm very happy to let the S3+ sit and churn away until it pops, especially when difficulty is sitting still. I'm in Bitcoin for the long game - I like many have wasted hundreds of BTC buying pointless ASICs, and the only ones that turned a high profit were the Mk1 ASICMiner Blades. Now I'm just happy to sit and churn away and hope BTC is worth a lot more in 5-10 years time. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on October 21, 2014, 01:55:00 PM Also they have the S3 Plus to get a little more hash then first batches. It is hard to beat the price on them if you already have PSU's. If not make sure to add price of PSU in roi math. I just got a S3+ off eBay for £200. It's basically unused. I'm running it to replace a clutter of older Avalon-based ASIC boards that drank 1kW for about 180GH. The S3+ is doing a shade under 500GH with 360W at the wall. I'm very happy to let the S3+ sit and churn away until it pops, especially when difficulty is sitting still. I'm in Bitcoin for the long game - I like many have wasted hundreds of BTC buying pointless ASICs, and the only ones that turned a high profit were the Mk1 ASICMiner Blades. Now I'm just happy to sit and churn away and hope BTC is worth a lot more in 5-10 years time. Title: Re: My new diff thread covers Oct 10 to Oct 22? 1.85% to 5.07% ? Post by: philipma1957 on June 30, 2015, 05:02:01 PM still sorting these
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