Bitcoin Forum

What's up with people talking about "november rush"?

they are looking at last years super spike and think it will return.
they dont realise that last years super spike was due to 4 things
1) ASICS that produced Thash/sec came onto the market
2) new tax years for certain large whale financial institutions
3) china adoption
4) crazy minded hype

this year there is no new china adoption or new technical ASIC release, only the new financial year for some big whales.
the problem im finding is that these big whales cant simply deposit into the crappy exchanges due to AML monetary limits, thus we should se a small rise but nothing in comparison to last year as the main upto 3 elements that caused last year are not there this year

We might not get anything this year anymore, but next year we will have Ponzicoin.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=825091.msg9217031#msg9217031

:)

Didn't the price skyrocket in November of last year? Maybe that's what they're referring to.

5) Willy (http://willyreport.wordpress.com/2014/05/25/the-willy-report-proof-of-massive-fraudulent-trading-activity-at-mt-gox-and-how-it-has-affected-the-price-of-bitcoin/)

Same old same old where people are predicting a sudden rise similar like what happened or a repeat from last year. However i don't think that is going to happen. Hash rate is still on the rise but the price increase is not proportional to the percent change in the hash rate. That leads to my theory that there are a lot of miner dumping the coin but the rate of dumping is being countered by the strong buying demand. That is why we see the rise. If the buying demand fizzles out we should expect the drop once again but fingers crossed... hopefully that is not going to happen. So you see the scenario is so much different from last year when demand mainly from the silkroad drives the surge coupled with some panic buying from investors

Sometimes, the suggestion that something could happen might make that something materialize.

I think we might even see low $2XX this year, and if whales with intentions to cause panic, we might even see lower than $200.

Let's see where it goes, if we hit low $2XX then why not buy a huge load of bitcoins  :D

so are they all expecting a crash afterwards too?  it doesnt seem good to expect any sort of trends yet, way too early to do that

Im personally thinking this rush will happen again, but no idea when. It can be november but not sure this year november.
Time will tell :) noone knows.

clever prediction ....could be between Jan and Dec  ;)

watch apple...

They hope a copy of last year, but I think it's the opposite. November crash...

More mechants accepting bitcoin payment increasing the selling pressure. Lacking significant news push capital into market to buy redundant bitcoin.

so if another big retailer/company starts to take bitcoin were going down even more.  Thats what happens is just a lot more selling?

Correct... um false. Correct and false at the same time.
This is what happens: Let's say the retailer is Amazon. A lot of people buy product on Amazon using bitcoin (thus their bitcoin was spent). Amazon (instead of keeping the Bitcoin) just uses a payment processor to instantly sell the Bitcoin into dollars. This is what is causing the price to go down, but if it is going to bring more people into Bitcoin, it does not matter.

depends on how many more people start using it.  it could drive price down to a "stable" level I think.  But if they ran some big promo like 10 or 15% for all bitcoin purchases a lot of people could start buying bitcoin, and start another rush where people end up buying and holding some if the price starts to go up, not spending it all

Entirely possible. Without Mt. Gox driving up the price artificially, there would never have been that surge, last year...would have just been another month in the year.

yeah, why does everyone forget the bubble was based on fraud???

If it was as simple as bot = rally ; no bot = no rally, then an exchange would have made another willy bot to drive up the price and profit.  The bot had some role, but evidently not a significant role

Yes, I was going to say that the bot needed to be mentioned in that list of what possibly led to that massive run up.   Would be stellar to see the price run happen again, but I don't see it ever drastically shooting up that quickly again...  I'm trying to think logically as to a possible catalyst that could cause a price run like that, but nothing comes to mind...

Shouldn't this thread be in speculation  ???