Bitcoin Forum

Hi everyone! Below is our latest update:


https://i.imgur.com/b3NslWE.jpg

Since the 16th of October, price has been constantly making lower highs and lower lows.

In the afternoon of the same day, it has been evident that the formation had established itself as a Descending Triangle, by testing the same low area $371 over and over again, which also happens to be the Lower 100day BB support.

This price action has been accompanied by a flat RSI, collapsing buying volume and a weakening MACD (at the time of writing). Moreover, stochastic has reversed sharply.

On the long side: RSI must show signs of strength in order to assist upward price movement. On a strong break above the Upper 20day BB at $385, the bullish case will stay intact and the odds will increase for a retest of the Upper 200day BB currently at $410.

On the short side: A strong break below $371 will possibly accelerate selling pressure to test the lower 200day BB at $347.

Overall: The weakening picture previously mentioned is still vivid. With such a low buying volume, some action has to give soon.

Outcome Probabilities:

Long: On a strong break above $385  – Price Target $410 | Probability: 25%
Neutral: Price Range $372-$384 | Probability: 40%
Short: On a break below $371 - Price Target $347 | Probability: 35%

Our Stance: Have reduced long exposure. Will reduce more if $371 is broken with conviction.

https://i.imgur.com/vmXA7Hb.png?1


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Price broke upper resistance triggering the Long Probability Outcome. Being in the trade for a quick profit (max target $405-410). Stop at break even. Following strict rules.

Might give this more credence if you could spell break correctly in your predictions ;)

I know some whales are anxious to load up if the price ever go to $200.

Sorry,but I don`t agree with your graph.
look at my graph and you will see a symmetrical buliish triangle (blue lines).
This has been proved by the actual outbreak off this triangle



https://www.tradingview.com/x/K8qLyqbA/

OP's timeframe is too short to really gain anything from it.

Try the daily chart.

that`s my next objection to OP

Yup, this is indeed a bad spelling... Sorry for that!  ;)

By the time of writing, formation (in correlation with internal indicators), was a bit tricky. Hence, the "in the making"...

We strictly follow our system for entry and exit points. The "BREAK" ;) above $385 provided a clean setup.

With regards to OP, it depends on how you see it. For a quick setup, it delivered pretty well.

what about your "descending triangle" (as you see it) and my symmetrical triangle (as I see it) ?
What triangle do you see in my graph above?
Because it is a very big difference regarding the forecasting point of view.
Your triangle will get resolved downwards (if the triangle is valid and follows the manner these triangles getting resolved "normally").
But my triangle is normally getting resolved upwards (as it has done)

Dear segeln, thank you very much for your valuable input.

Once more, by the time of our writing, internals, especially MACD, did not favour a breakout and price seemed that it could roll over to test $372 again before a final decision. More precisely, our chart and your chart have an approximate 11hr difference. It would have been much more productive if we had exchanged our analysis at the exact same time.

https://i.imgur.com/mC6DJV3.jpg

However, indeed it turned out to be a symmetrical triangle with a clean breakout, triggering our long setup at $385. Now this setup is far over and done.

Please note that we do not "predict" nor do we try to prove anyone wrong. Every approach is correct until "Price" decides otherwise.

We never stick to one direction. Our system constantly provides entry/exit points for all possible scenarios and we follow them strictly as "Price" is always the common denominator.

In theory, descending triangles resolve downwards with a performance rank of 10 out of 21 and a 54% pullback rate. Symmetrical triangles, on the other hand, breakout with a performance rank of 16 out of 23 and a throwback rate of 37%.

Therefore, while the formation has been completed, what needs to be seen right now is whether this breakout from the symmetrical is not a false one.

At this very moment, it is significant that the 60min 20MA, at $390 Bitstamp, will not act as resistance.

@Cryptoalerts.net  
 first,thank you for your answer.

But I think you did not get what I was talking about.

My issue was your drawing, especially the horizontal line of the triangle.
It was ,independent from the time of drawing, a slightly upwards   line.
So indicating a symmetrical triangle.not a descending one.
The lows of 10.17th and 10.18th 2014 got a diffrent Price (10.18th was a bit higher than 10.17th),so by connecting these Prices you get a slightly upwards line.
And therefore an other description of the existing triangle
And hence another Analysis:
 the most likely outcome of your descending triangle is Price going downwards.whereas a symmetrical triangle has a most likely Price upwards outcome

@segeln - We are happy to exchange approaches.

With regards to the horizontal line: At the time, price started flirting the Lower 100day Bollinger Band (white BB Line), which was actually identified as a good support area around $371. So if a descending was to be formed, it should have tested once more this support.

If you check a lot of similar patterns, you could agree that: A lower/low can be followed by a tiny higher/low and then a lower/low again (mostly identified in Forex pair actions). That would have supported our thesis.

But of course it didn't, forming a symmetrical... and yes data suggests that the most possible outcome is to break upwards from such formation.

@Cryptoalerts.net
Thanks again for your reply