Bitcoin Forum

As per title.

Also, is it happening ?

If it is, would it be more problematic [to successfully manipulate] when the price reaches a certain level ?


And, is it a bad thing (necessarily) ?

After 30k wall sentiment ,minimum 300-500k +

Because bitcoin does not need money to work, there is no minimum price required for the system to stay alive. No matter how low we go, the sky is still the limit for future valuation. 

The more the requirement of BTC will be, the higher the prices will be too.
If the depend is dropped, the prices will drop too.

If all miners in the world dump their btc together in the same time , btc price will fall.
But maybe not hit $ 100 , that $ 100 can happen if all miners and all trading guys dump btc for fiat in the same day.

Less than one might expected.

Given two out of three major exchanges provide huge leverage to traders. It doesn't take much to set off a cascading margin call on both exchanges and drag down the price around the world.

You can get a lower bound by looking at the open market orders in any exchange.
But of course, as these orders get filled, new orders will come in and the amount required to move the market (in any direction) will be much larger.

I think it's not gonna happen, if you continue to wait for ''$100 btc'', you'll end up panic buying during a rally

Question was not if it will happen or not. But how much Bitcoins is needed. Only way you can answer on this with: " It will never happen." Is if you say that even if all existing Bitcoins hit the exchange will not move price to $100.


My opinion is that close to 1 million BTC would be needed for that.

I'm sure you need at least 500.000 BTC
But, as soon bitcoin reach $100, there are lot people who would buy bitcoin because they believe the price will rise up again soon.

So, if you want manipulate permanently you need much more bitcoin  ;D
But, how can you get a lot of bitcoin without buying it  ;D. Because if you buy a lot to manipulate, the price will up  :D

a bulk load ! :))

But I think this is already happening with PayPal and other big players that are stepping into the game ... and let's not forget about the bitcoin premined coins .

I don't think anyone will raise a  million coins together just to dump them to crash the price, it's impossible to predict exactly how the market would react to it but nobody has that many coins Anyway...  The fbi   might have the  silk Rd Coins but I think if they were dumped the market would buy like crazy until it returns to equilibrium

Also not too worried about the premined coins satoshi may or may not have  lost, if they haven't moved in 5 years they might never move and the userbBase is growing anyway so any crash will be swallowed up and a rise will follow

It is required around 30-50.000 bitcoin to manipulate price down by 100$, and this isn't a good thing, some people have this quantity of bitcoin.

Valid point here... Though manipulation is possible and that is one disadvantage of unregulated free market. Even regulated markets have manipulation for that matter!

Is it? Why is it that some paypal transactions involving bitcoin is still regulated/cancelled/closed down?

I tried to make a calculation but end up nowhere due to a number of factors. Assuming you are talking about 1 single day dump, it may be possible with 10 mil fund and use exchanger service that provides 100 times leverage. It will still be difficult to estimate as there would some buying support suddenly placed at the 100 - 200 usd support level. But maybe it would be easier if that easily triggers the margin call

If you have 100.000 Bitcoin you can make wherever you want and, consequently, take down price to 100$  ;D

That wall was because he set his sell price at 290 or 300. Had he set the price lower, the price would have fallen much further. It took several days to work through that 30k inventory. 500k hitting the market at once? If it was just a market order, not a limit order, seeing BTC hit (even temporarily) double or even single digits could be a possibility. Such is how things work in an illiquid market.

Not saying that the price would stay depressed at those levels for the long term, just during the course of the sale. After that inventory is cleared away, he price would be free to rebound to whatever level the market set.

It depends on the volume, some days volume is specifically low an a whale could cause wrack.

even on lower than normal volume days theres probably still a lot of people monitoring the market with cash in hand etc

a whale would have to be careful if he attempted to crash the price lower that all his coins were not snapped up before he got the chance
to execute his game plan

Market manipulation is likely to come from the exchanges themselves because they have the funds to be able to do it sucessfully and they can see what everyone else cant

they can also delay orders being filled  or throw a spanner in the works and blame a technical problem whenever it suits them and snap up some cheap coins or prevent anyone else from getting them by delaying funds being credited to accounts etc

Got to agree with that. I'm not saying definitively that thats whats occurring - its all essentially speculation - but as you say, the opportunity is definitely there, and, given the potential rewards, well, it certainly makes you think.

  I would say that, were it true, it would present a good argument for regulation.

However, regulation didn't prevent Barclays from manipulating the LIBOR rate.

So whats the answer ? I don't know.

Proof is needed, one way or the other.

Either that, or everyone uses LocalBitcoins for purchases  ;)

Well PayPal is just starting to play with bitcoin, and not as a buy/sell house ( like an exchange ) ... they will use it as a gateway ... because you know, a transaction that is done in the blockchain can not be undone and that sucks for the banks who like chargebacks :)

Paypal did probably suspend accounts for dubious transactions .. you know, they suck ! and they don't like bitcoins like you and me ... they just like the technology behind it ... but that's just my opinion .

Cheers !

The 30k whale, if selling them at "market order", would drive the price to 1 digit...

If he does that he won't be a whale for much longer lol

I'll take 30,000 btc  at  1usd each and he won't even have to give the exchange Any fees or commission
(i would pay in cash or whatever :) 

Of course, the Coins would be bought up long before they got  to single figures never mind 1usd  each imo

Let me know in advance, when you planning to do that.

I need to liquidate some things, to buy up all those cheap coins. With the situation like it is now with BTC we can only see one thing happening, and that is a climb to $600+ by the end of this year.

Not a bad ROI if this happens.  ;D

Mind that the few “early adopters” can use their “kill switch” dumping just once, unless they are able to effectively manipulate the market as they want (dumping and then buying back low).

How many times are you going to spout RUBBISH!!!!!!

The sell price was set at $300. Was an amount of 30,000 BTC and took FIVE Hours not days!!!!!!

Instead of continually talking shit check out your facts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-uX_bB_4VJk

This depends on when you dump the Bitcoins into the market. Choose a good time where there is little liquidity, you will then easily create a slump.

Can you do the simple math please.

30k BTC would not do anything. to get price to $10 as you say, there should be sold half bitcoins. And maybe even then would not happen.

To get price to $10, there should be some serious security matter inside Bitcoin.

The question is how long the price down of $100 will last.

I think that 50.000 Bitcoin can be sufficient to manipulate market price and make fall price down to 100$ and much other. This is one of the worst thing of bitcoin, power is in the hand of few people  :-\

Let me get this straight you think $16,500 is enough to crash a $4 billion asset?

Can I have the drugs you are using?

Unless you ment 50 thousand BTC then I am wrong but you should use a comma.

Zero. Code a fake orderbook, delete bids/asks above manipulation point, reboot server, continue laughing at plebs who think BTC will ever reach previous ATH.

ha ha
it is cheapest method to take price down by 100$ or you can take it to anywhere you want
you just need time not bitcoins to make this happens

Let's start with 26,000 btc again for starters... ;)

Gox already tried something like that and they failed spectacularly

If any "whale"  dumped 30-50k Coins  just to cause a price crash they're is no way he would get them all back without losses and be able to do it again

The exchange fees alone would prevent anyone except the exchange themselves doing this at a profit unless they did it themselves

Too many people will buy in a crash unless it's the exchange themselves so the whale would never get all off his cheap coins back because the market orders and the new orders due to the price crash combined would eat a lot of them instantly on the re-buy..............unless they could delay the re-buy somehow but again, only an exchange themselves could rig the order book /delay order processing /delay new money being credit credited / etc so they will win the majority of  times

Of course, a lot of this is based on the "zeitgeist" - or rather, the current prevailing market conditions. But under the right conditions a whale could cause a widespread snowballing dump - so, it would be possible, at least, to buy back cheaper.

Also, where does short selling fit into all this ? If you know beforehand that the price is going down by x amount, surely the gains made from short selling have to be factored into the equation.

Or am I confused ?

Just thinking aloud really  :D

300-500K BTC?? LOL! By far not. It really depends on the exchange.

That 30K BTC wall could easily get the price below $100 at Bitstamp causing a flash crash. If the 30K whale decided to do so, he would lose a lot money.

If you try to get the price below $100 at BTC-E, it would probably take a little less than 20K BTC to cause the crash.

It does not count if it is only one exchange...

You/they did not drop the price of bitcoin down to $100... you decided you wanted to light your wealth on fire by selling it at 1/3 of what people are paying.

Dropping it to $100 on one exchange for 10 mintues means YOU DID NOT DROP THE PRICE TO $100 you sold your coins off for 1/3 of the going price like a moron.

Post 569 on this thread explains the mechanics of how the price is manipulated https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.msg9468207#new (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=316297.msg9468207#new).

Doesn't say how many BTC are needed - but answers the question (in principle) that I was trying to ask.