Bitcoin Forum

It seems clear to me that BTC will hit the big(ger) time and relatively soon.  But some folks (who do seem to have a good understanding of it) hold the exact opposite opinion.  Am I buying into the hype?  Besides regulation (which I don't think will end up being a problem in the Land of Innovation and many other countries), how else could BTC go wrong and turn out to be the fad some say it is.

Contrary to what a lot of people here will tell you bitcoin is not perfect and it can be improved a lot.

Bitcoin will
Not be big anytime soon. Im throwing my towel. I cant wait 3 ,5 years to ho to the "moon"

Moon for me will be when price stays between $1000 and $1050 99% of the time. That would be incredible!

OK cool, these are the kinds of responses I was hoping for.  Of course it isn't perfect, but the question on my mind is will it go big or does it have a fatal flaw that will snuff it out?

The ones that are bearish and "abandoning ship" are probably the ones that got in at the high, got goxed, or merely thought of Bitcoin as a get rich scheme.

The ones that remain bullish are holding coins steady through thick and thin.  The same ones that view it as an innovation, a versatile payment method, and the (crypto)currency of the future.

Time will tell who's right, but looking at it objectively, Bitcoin is only 5 years young.  Gots a long ways to go.

Besides regulation, why *wouldn't* it go big?

It really all depends on where in the adoption curve we are...

http://www.innovation-creativity.com/images/innovation-adoption-curve.jpg

One thing this graphic left out is that innovation can be represented as an arrow straight across the bottom.

---------->>>

As innovation increases so does the rate of adoption.

My belief is that we are currently somewhere around the late "Innovators" or early "Early Adopters" phase.

Determining where bitcoin is on the adoption curve is really up to you.

Prediction is difficult, especially about the future.

Check out what has transpired over the last 12 months: Massive rise, massive Goxxing, banned /unbanned / banned in China, NYDFS regs proposal, the rise of shorting, Moolah / Mintpal debacle, Russia 'ban', Australia possible 2x GST, Satoshi (Dorian & email hack), continued FUD, attacked in media, Professor Bitcorn, Schiff/Buffet et al 'Ponzi scheme', PayPal, dumps on good news.

2014 has been the year bitcoin stood up. It has been attacked from all sides, knocked from pillar to post and told 'Welcome to the Big League, son'.

But it still stands.

And slowly the narrative is changing.

We've seen the labels: drug dealing, money laundering, ponzi scheme, pyramid scheme, magic internets money. Now we've moved on to the point that says "Yeah this blockchain certainly is something. God darn great innovation. Lets just get rid of the 'meh' currency and keep this blockchain thing".

Next will be the step where entire industries jump on board. I'd say it is about a year off.

The major acception by merchants is positve and negative. Positive for Bitcoin adoption, negative for exchange rate, big companies dump the earned bitcoin in stead of holding because allmost all other biznis uses fiat. As long as there are no real option for companies to spend their bitcoins, this will continue.. unless the group of bitcoiners gets much larger :), so spread the word ;D

Bitcoin is always getting bigger and better. You don't need to wait for "soon". If you expect "bigger" also means higher prices, you need to wait a bit.

Just think about Bitcoin as an factory.

What is incoming (at least):
1. Electricity.
2. Hardware.

What is outgoing:
1. Transactions

Now plot the graph - what is the price for one transaction in kWh and other resources.
Compare the price with one-two-three years ago.
Is it too difficult?

Really, no one can point out a (possibly-)fatal flaw or danger other than regulation?

Right now Bitcoin is still young. Bitcoin itself is one small app on the blockchain.  Bitcoin is the p2p payment system to be used on the massive ultra-secure blockchain ledger. You have to research and see all the things the Bitcoin blockchain will enable. Bitcoin should really take off once smart contracts get through their trial period and we can provide the facts to the general public. I believe this will be the point everyone is waiting on. Smart Contracts will enable loans, mortgages and registration of property such as car titles on the blockchain. Once the Bitcoin payment is made the door to the house or car you just bought will open or you will be able to print out your rental agreement. You see Bitcoin is the payment system that will be used for the smart contracts, not only person to person, but the smart contracts have digital agents which will have wallets also. Don't miss the whole point of Bitcoin being the means of payments for all the services that will be running on the blockchain. Thats why it was designed to act like a scarce commodity. Only 21 million will ever be available to be used to pay for all the services that will be available.

Note: Gavin said over the next 4-5 months they will be taking care of the fork, so until then I don't see the Bitcoin value going up too dramatically. THIS IS IMHO. I imagine in one year it will be looking a lot better once the fork is completed and smart contracts are running good.

Update: I forgot to include mining. We already went through solo mining to pool mining with getwork and then switched to stratum proxy with the pools. We will have to switch again, I'll link some options below.

http://gavintech.blogspot.com/2012/05/neutralizing-51-attack.html?m=1
https://bitcoinfoundation.org/2014/07/mining-decentralisation-the-low-hanging-fruit/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=281180.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QN2TPeQ9mnA

Don't XCP and MSC provide smart contracts on the BTC blockchain already?

Those are alts, this is BCT. I'm talking Bitcoin 2.0 smart contracts.

Altcoin links:
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-problem-with-altcoins/
http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/the-coming-demise-of-altcoins/

Certainly but lack of smart contract functionality can't be what's holding BTC back if that functionality is in fact available.

I don't think we will go 'to the moon' soon.
Hang in there though, hold for 10 years & see what happens.
It's a long journey.

Have you got the stomach for it?

Those smart contracts you are talking about are altcoins not Bitcoin. This link is Gavins proposal for Bitcoin 2.0 smart contracts:

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/gavin-andresen-outlines-bitcoin-2-0-without-ethereum/

Note: This is a good thread, I hope I didn't throw you off topic. One other thing right now that hurts us is the security of the wallet.
There are some new inovations out there, but most are too tech savy for older people. It looks like some better options may be comming out next year.

Update: I think if you go back to 1993 and follow the progression of the internet through 1999 it's kind of the same things Bitcoin is going through right now.

Note: What I was trying to say above is right now it's like Bitcoin is competing with Western Union. With smart contracts Bitcoin would be competing with Visa.


Final Answer: No I don't think there is a fatal flaw that will end Bitcoin. But only time will tell.

Fair enough.  I just want to point out that XCP and MSC operate on the BTC blockchain in the (very off) chance that you didn't already know that.



You could be right about that.

Getting back on track:

There are so many reasons that add up to failure if you ask me, but success or failure is subjective. If success is having something to speculate on or having something to transact in a black market other than paper fiat, than bitcoin is a success.

The reasons I see it as a failure is the following.

1. It works off the scarcity model.
2. It is easily manipulated and controlled.
3. The myth of decentralization is a lie.
4. The myth of a means to save money by avoiding excess fees is a lie.
5. Bitcoins value is depended on being denominated in USD or other national currencies
6. The ease of governments to tax, regulate, track and generally control bitcoin.
7. Massive energy cost to maintain and secure network. (massive mining cost)
8. Violates the regression theorem
9. Isnt a good store of value
10. Is an awful unit of account.. you cant denominate a mortgage in bitcoin
11. It doesn't solve any problems for the general population they dont want to protect their own money, thats why they use the bank.

and many more, it wont have mass adoption and yes you are believing the hype.  
  
 

In my eyes, there's nothing the minds working the blockchain can't overcome to keep the future intact like a well-oiled machine. Furthermore, over-regulation doesn't seem likely at this point.

If you are able to, you should be holding onto a few different things, instead of just cash in the bank....  You want to try and beat inflation with multiple different investments (bitcoin hopefully being one of them)...

So... you don't want the price to go over $1050? Or if it does, only 1% of the time... got it

All signs point to Bitcoin being a big game changer. Its not a matter of if , but when.

Fixed that for you. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vaPgfErzeu0)

This will probably never happen. Next time btc touches 1,000 it will be rocketing past, on its way to the moon.


https://i.imgur.com/CbeOgFW.png

What about the emission rate?  BTC must stimulate enough buying pressure to counteract the selling pressure created by miners which I think is the reason for the downward price trend as of late.  How much BTC will be emitted over the next year, for example?

The emission rate has importance inversely related to the stability of fiat currency. Each financial crisis will hasten the herd toward crypto until a critical mass is reached, this will become the historical "bitcoin moment". Also known as "the moon".

By the word emitted, are you talking just generated? Or generated and sold?

If you don't mind my answering your question with a question, are there estimates as to what percentage of emitted BTC are immediately sold?

What signs?

@ op

That's a good question. I have a small mining farm and I do associate with a lot of miners. Most I talk with hold around 10%-20% and spend(not sell) the rest. In my case I use the gyft card to pay with bitcoin for just about everything except for major bills and gasoline.
I have mixed feelings on the gyft and bitpay because in the end it's just exchanged for USD. The larger farms are different. I know every once and awhile I would see bitmain selling, but they only sell in bundles of 1,000 bitcoins.

Another example is I gave my niece a miner that produces enough to pays for her electricity bill because she's in college and doesn't have much income. She sells once a month to pay that bill. The little bit of Bitcoin she has left she normally gets something from Amazon with the gyft app. I'm sure there are a lot of novice miners in that situation also.

As you can see, this estimate is hard to get close to ever being right.

Note: A lot of miners don't sell on exchanges because we get a much higher price from people that don't like or don't trust the exchanges. I don't have a problem with circle/coinbase but there are a lot of people do.

Do we know how much will be emitted (sold or not) over the next year (or another period of time)?

Over the next 365 days about 1,314,000 bitcoins.

25 coins every 10 minutes until the next halving...

So we're looking at an inflation rate of about 10% over the next year.  With all the infrastructure sprouting up around BTC, I think it can absorb that and more.  How about years 2 and 3?

The formula used for difficulty and Bitcoin block creation:(recalculated every 2016 blocks....one block=25 bitcoins)

This is the block chain's control theory feedback loop:

60minhr∗24hrday∗7dayweek 10minblock=2016 in 2weeks

Tcurrent=Tprior∗tprior/2weeks

D=work/2(32)=2(256)/(Tcurrent+1)∗2(32)

hashes/second≈D∗2(32)/600

This calculates every 2016 blocks and is supposed to be every 14 days, but since hashpower is added after the calculation is made it only takes 10-12 days most of the time to reach 2016. So the standard yearly estimate is always a little low.

@op

Seems you are really taking everything into account and trying to make some researched educated decisions. If you have not read this I would really recommend it concerning the economics of Bitcoin:

http://nakamotoinstitute.org/shelling-out/

Update: If you haven't watched this video please do, you will not be disappointed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xUNGFZDO8mM

Yep, I'm quoting myself...

Here is a question for you: Is there any currency, other then bitcoin and derivatives, you can predict the emission rate of over the next year?

Time tells all, young Jedi.

Well said.  Although the point in bold is something that I don't agree with.  There needs to be much more development before that happens.  There needs to the block size issue dealt with and some seriously good apps for people, businesses, your grandma, to use.  And those will take time

Wow, things have certainly changed on this forum in the last couple of years. A quarter of the posts in this thread would have been shredded by DnT or Stephen Gornick in 2011. There's not as much cheerleading as there once was and people seem more reserved about future potential. I'd say Bitcoin is right on schedule. It will eventually end up somewhere between curing AIDS/ending world hunger and being a complete failure.

Correct me if I am wrong, but I suspect the issue for business adoption will be at the point of taxing the transaction.  It has to be exchanged into fiat at the present exchange rate to establish the tax cost per transaction at that point, no?  Thus it can't stay in Bitcoin from transaction to transaction, but has to bounce between fiat and Bitcoin as the buying customer and tax law dictates.  That complication is intimidating to vendors.

I believe it will take some time, but all the signs are there... so just keep calm and hoard some coin.

Read this article:
10 Reasons You Should Be Paying Attention To Bitcoin Right Now (http://bitcoin247.org/10-reasons-paying-attention-bitcoin-right-now/)

It's 2014. The square community is onboard now

Soon we will be able to say that 2014 was magnificent year for Bitcoin. Doubt anyone in the beginning of 2014 would expect Bitcoin would reach as fast as it will in 2 months time. If next year will be so successful, i doubt it will, Bitcoin will be really destined for Greatness.

"It seems clear to me that BTC will hit the big(ger) time and relatively soon." How did you draw that conclusion?
PS I do believe in btc, but I think it will take a lot longer time for it to be mainstream. With current price ...

Well I would certainly say that bitcoin will in fact not ever do anything like cure AIDS or end world hunger, this is simply not something it was designed to do. There is really no imaginable way that something can go from being a more efficient way to send money to making medical breakthroughs.

Bitcoin should make economies more efficient and third world countries would not need to rely on a shaky banking system or any kind of third party to "hold" their money so, in theory it may help world hunger but even this is a far stretch

I totally agree with you. Its only been 5 years since the coming :-P of bitcoin. All the people abandoning ship were mostly the folks that only joined it after seeing Bitcoins price rise up to 1000$. I would rather hold on to my coins..(Sadly the few that I have) and wait and watch how things go.

If the public doesn't adopt it.. if we can't make storing and moving bitcoins easy for the moronic 99% then bitcoin will never be anything.

Bitcoin might help the world in ways we cannot imagine. The internet definitely has!
People in remote parts of Africa would be able to receive small donations from people across the world. This could provide meaningful relief in a famine.