Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: 600watt on October 30, 2014, 09:13:56 AM



Title: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: 600watt on October 30, 2014, 09:13:56 AM
let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: fred1111 on October 30, 2014, 09:17:50 AM
We could still fall quite a bit, though certainly not by a factor of 80.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: asdlolciterquit on October 30, 2014, 09:21:38 AM
let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)


no care about what anyone else can say: it's PRETTY BEARISH!!


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Zolly on October 30, 2014, 09:49:59 AM
let us take a look at the last 24 months.


THE RISE:

price in november 2012: $ 15,-
price in november 2013: $ 1200,- (ath)

= risen by factor 80



THE FALL:

price in november 2013: $ 1200,-
price in november 2014: $ 300,- (?)

= fallen by factor 4



80 fold up followed by 4 fold down = seems pretty bullish to me.

(inspired by a post from user ricke)

(self moderated, stfu all btc-is-doomed-trolls)


Doesen't help much how well btc did in 2012/2013. We are now in 2014...

You could use the same crap description and say it's bullish even at $ 16... As a ceo you would have been fired presenting these numbers as bullish..

Time to wake up






Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: colour on October 30, 2014, 10:00:31 AM
https://i.imgur.com/SruSDff.gif


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: thms on October 30, 2014, 10:06:47 AM
Let's all dump Bitcoin to < $50

Then we can all buy back in and become the "early adopters 2.0"!


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: rebuilder on October 30, 2014, 10:28:58 AM
It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: DeadCoin on October 30, 2014, 10:57:48 AM
Everything is fine, it has more than halved, but it's still above the water

http://theactionelite.com/site/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/titanic-sinking.jpg


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Tzupy on October 30, 2014, 11:25:54 AM
...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math. ;)


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: fewcoins on October 30, 2014, 11:35:22 AM
Stop talking price & start talking infrastructure... Bitcoin price is in a huge downtrend but the bottom has never looked closer. Regardless current price is no where near the price bitcoin will be after regulation. Good or bad. It might rocket to the moon or fall like a rock.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: nowfel on October 30, 2014, 11:51:05 AM
well there is always a hope for btc  8) but i am little bit worried  :-[ what should do sell them now or hold?


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: ravenjt on October 30, 2014, 11:59:28 AM
well there is always a hope for btc  8) but i am little bit worried  :-[ what should do sell them now or hold?

What proportion of your wealth is in BTC?
It's speculative. Something big might happen that causes it to rise, like in Q4 2013. It might go to zero. It might just carry on slowly declining in $50 steps as it has done since summer.
If you have a diversified portfolio, you can be much more objective than if all your eggs are in the BTC basket.



Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Capt Drake on October 30, 2014, 12:04:58 PM
...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math. ;)

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: exocytosis on October 30, 2014, 12:22:07 PM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: NotLambchop on October 30, 2014, 12:26:45 PM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: fairglu on October 30, 2014, 01:37:39 PM
http://hotmeme.net/media/i/9/6/xsW-don-t-panic-janet-yellen-just-ended-the-quantitative-easing.jpg


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Tzupy on October 30, 2014, 02:01:49 PM
...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math. ;)

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

Very accurate, eh? Another one whose math I won't trust...
Gox prices, 266$ on the 10th April 2013, 66$ on the 5th July 2013, that's 24.8% not 15%.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: ravenjt on October 30, 2014, 02:41:47 PM
There are a lot of threads at the moment about not panicking. Panic is clearly in the air.
I'm not sure why, we have just drifted down a bit, which is just another typical outcome for a day in 2014.
Or do people sense that another big crash is coming this weekend? Another whale-exit extraordinaire?

Last time it happened, with the low of 275, there was immediate strong buying pressure taking us back to 400. That's some serious profit on the way up, as well of course for shorters on the way down beforehand.



Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Capt Drake on October 30, 2014, 02:58:57 PM
...
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
...

I don't trust your math. ;)

It's very accurate if you look. Maybe we really found the bottom and now we are consolidating towards a new bubble.

Very accurate, eh? Another one whose math I won't trust...
Gox prices, 266$ on the 10th April 2013, 66$ on the 5th July 2013, that's 24.8% not 15%.

Well I looked at the Stamp price and the top was 259.34, bottom 45 which give us 17%


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Sunderland on October 30, 2014, 03:55:08 PM
Hmm , but all situation between 2012 -2013 is different with now.
3 weeks ago maybe im not panic , because i believe that price will hit more than $ 400 again.
But now .. i feel something going bad will happen soon  :-X idk but i hope that was wrong.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: NotLambchop on October 30, 2014, 04:00:24 PM
If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic ???


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: HotHamHock on October 30, 2014, 05:01:16 PM
If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic ???

because it comes naturally

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-oK5nOMyteVc/Ty_vuxkegZI/AAAAAAAABoo/50af_XATIRM/s1600/%28%29+herd+mentality.jpg


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: NotLambchop on October 30, 2014, 05:15:55 PM
^
Herd mentality somehow got a bad rap in this herd of special snowflakes.  Herd mentality is an adoptive behavior, herd animals fare much better within the herd than outside it.  Going against the herd may seem romantic, but it's not life-affirming.
/tangent
Anyhow, knowing about "herd mentality" nets you nothing.  If you see everyone selling (tanking the price), you should also sell (the price is going down, regardless of it being irrational).

TL;DR: Everyone panicking is cause enough to sell.  Due to panic or common sense, doesn't matter, the result's the same.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: HotHamHock on October 30, 2014, 06:36:23 PM
^
Herd mentality somehow got a bad rap in this herd of special snowflakes.  Herd mentality is an adoptive behavior, herd animals fare much better within the herd than outside it.  Going against the herd may seem romantic, but it's not life-affirming.
/tangent
Anyhow, knowing about "herd mentality" nets you nothing.  If you see everyone selling (tanking the price), you should also sell (the price is going down, regardless of it being irrational).

TL;DR: Everyone panicking is cause enough to sell.  Due to panic or common sense, doesn't matter, the result's the same.

True, but ignorance is a choice. It's only a matter of time before the herd abandons the one to the wolf, or leads it off a cliff. Therefore, the most logical solution is one of understanding; the herd, the wolf, when to follow and when to lead -even if alone.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Wary on October 30, 2014, 09:50:20 PM
I direct myself to the OP:

Now, first of all, hands off the ignore button. I consider the 'Oh-I-disagree-with-you-IGNORE' reflex as a kind of mediocre self defence mechanism, which does not really contribute in getting a decent view on any given situation. Fact of the matter is: this topic breathes panic. It is another one of those topics that, seemingly desperately, tries to keep as many people in the sinking ship as possible. What we do know pretty much for certain is this:

- 'Adoption' as it is used as an argument here, each and every time, is extremely overrated. I still see no one using Bitcoin, nor did I ever hear someone else talk about using it to buy things. Also, why should merchants all over the world start using something this volatile?
- The press revolving around Bitcoin is close to 90% 'negative press'.
- The 'weak hands', or in each case the average Joe that got fucked during the latest bubble, is leaving 'the game'. Without the average Joe, market manipulation will be a lot harder as there is less to gain.
- The Bitcoin price has been steadily dropping for months already and for now there is absolutely no end in sight. Bitcoin just is overvalued, whatever some of the more prominent members on these boards are saying. The ones that are talking their order book that is.
 - Most importantly: historical data does not, in any way, guarantee that Bitcoin will recover. There are multiple second generation Cryptocoins out there already and it has always been argued that Bitcoin might have simply been a first step. Bitcoin might very well be destroyed in the next few months/years.
- As long as the price keeps dropping, miners will get more and more uncomfortable which will probably affect the price drop.

1. Bitcoin cap is measured in billions. For you seeing it used everywhere the cap should reach trillions. So far, the adoption is a niche one. You can argue that if even one on 100 or 1000 is using it, you should still know somebody who uses it to buy something. Well, probably you do know them, they just keep quiet about it, because the "something" is drugs or gambling or pron. :)
2. Bad news just sell better. When everything's fine in my city/country, the press ignoring them. They appear in news only when something bad happens.
3. When price will come back, the Joe will come back as well. So far very tiny sliver of Joes been in bitcoin.
4. Bounce of 275 with good volume is a sign.
5. Altcoins exist for a while. No bitcoin-killer so far. IMO an altcoin can replace bitcoin only if all states will agree to ban bitcoin. Then some more stelthy altcoin, like Monero or something will take it's place.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: kwukduck on October 30, 2014, 11:58:33 PM
The only possibility is an absolute total crash at this moment without chance of recovery. Cryptocoins 3.5 have taken over basically all volume and features that people want. If bitcoin was ever to be a success we should have had a new ath a few months ago. But no, just more and more dumps, faster and faster going down.

It was a nice experiment, now it's time to admit it didn't work and move on.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Room101 on October 31, 2014, 01:02:00 AM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif



can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: beegatewood on October 31, 2014, 01:43:38 AM
Why shouldn't we panic when btc is still under $500.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Snipe85 on October 31, 2014, 01:52:21 AM
Why shouldn't we panic when btc is still under $500.
Simply because last year at this time it was below $200  ;D


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: EternalWingsofGod on October 31, 2014, 01:57:03 AM
It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

So in other words if it follows the patterns
We are in for a long duration price drop that will hurt before we see some good
Get ready to feel the pain, on the other hand I wonder what that means for a rise and the length of time till the bottom is reached.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: romerun on October 31, 2014, 03:18:53 AM
Well,  unusual large volume since last peak in bitfinex could be a good sign for the next rally


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Cluster2k on October 31, 2014, 03:27:04 AM
= risen by factor 80

= fallen by factor 4

That is true, but it's not looking at the larger picture.  If my $1 share falls to 50c how much value have I lost?  50%.  From the level of 50c, by how much does my investment need to rise in value to get back to $1?  50%?  Of course not.  It now needs to rise by 100%.  The seemingly small falls mask how large the gains have to be just for my investment to return to even.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: 600watt on October 31, 2014, 07:41:21 AM
https://medium.com/zapchain-magazine/the-10-best-videos-to-watch-to-learn-about-bitcoin-c34f98f2fed1

we have viewed most of them already (and some are not 100% accurate) but they are reminding us of the bigger perspective.

which one is best?


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: futurebit640 on October 31, 2014, 05:51:04 PM
Hold on tight, and don't let go!


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: coinableS on October 31, 2014, 08:14:59 PM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif



can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Yes, poor kitty :(


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: mmortal03 on October 31, 2014, 09:58:44 PM
= risen by factor 80

= fallen by factor 4

That is true, but it's not looking at the larger picture.  If my $1 share falls to 50c how much value have I lost?  50%.  From the level of 50c, by how much does my investment need to rise in value to get back to $1?  50%?  Of course not.  It now needs to rise by 100%.  The seemingly small falls mask how large the gains have to be just for my investment to return to even.

Precisely.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: arieq on October 31, 2014, 10:43:44 PM
If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic ???

Well, BTC is like a great ship, there's nothing wrong with the ship but passengers screaming and running off the ship. You stop and ask the passengers why, they answer "I dunno, cuz everyone else is."


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Room101 on October 31, 2014, 11:54:30 PM
charts on blockchain are interesting....we just hit an all time high in number of transactions per day...finally beating the December 13 bubble. I think bitcoin is still growing a good steady rate, this year has just been returning to a more realistic price. Even without etf or anything else, i think we should continue to grow steadily, i estimate $1200 by this time next year.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: BootstrapCoinDev on November 01, 2014, 03:30:45 PM
Bitcoin was overinflated with the idea of buying hotel rooms with it and the average banks in China buying into it and exchanging it. A purpose in which it was never intended for or at least Bitcoin itself not the idea as a whole. So yes BTC will continue to drop back down to natural levels and will one day return to it's original purpose.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: erre on November 01, 2014, 05:00:47 PM
It' s not a ship, it's a train. And we just start the ride.

HODL!

http://www.funicolarecomo.it/immagini/FunicolareClassica.jpg


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: resya on November 05, 2014, 12:16:22 PM
If BTC is doing well, why would anyone panic ???

Well, BTC is like a great ship, there's nothing wrong with the ship but passengers screaming and running off the ship. You stop and ask the passengers why, they answer "I dunno, cuz everyone else is."

I love the ship of bitcoin. It is beautiful and I love the concept. I am being real now. I am protecting my assets that I have left and I would recommend you all do the same.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: nowfel on December 18, 2014, 06:46:20 AM
we just bought a ticket of moon we need to prepare first to sit in the vehicles of moon be patients guys we will up before april...


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: AweSomeNes on December 18, 2014, 06:53:57 AM
My theory:

Microsoft want to take over all bitcoins and doing something that the price is going down now but within a month btc will 1000$+ again believe me i dreamed about it today!


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: DonYo on December 18, 2014, 07:03:46 AM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif



can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Better with music  :D
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awf45u6zrP0 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awf45u6zrP0)


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: mmortal03 on December 18, 2014, 07:04:46 AM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif



can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Yes, poor kitty :(

It's okay, he still had all nine lives when that was filmed.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: nauane on December 18, 2014, 11:58:26 AM

I love the ship of bitcoin. It is beautiful and I love the concept. I am being real now. I am protecting my assets that I have left and I would recommend you all do the same.
So you're right. I do the same


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: mindrust on December 18, 2014, 12:00:47 PM
there is nothing bad about panicking.

 panic raises adrenaline levels of the human body.

adrenaline keeps you alive.


panic is good. panic keeps you alive.

don't believe ppl say "don't panic"

panic!!

panic!!


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: franckuestein on December 18, 2014, 12:03:42 PM
For some people, bitcoin is not just a decentralized project, they've invested money and we know what people think about money… they don't want to lose anything, lol.

Anyway as you've said (OP) people tend to dramatize everything. It's obvious that BTC price is falling, but once people understand the real potential of what they have on their hands, bitcoin is going to continue rising.

Let's see what happens that 2015-16  ;)


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: jaredboice on December 18, 2014, 02:53:00 PM
Troll Spotter: mindtrust is a serial troll.  I've seen him in multiple threads spewing his FUD. just add to ignore list


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: NotLambchop on December 18, 2014, 02:56:00 PM
Don't be sad, bagholders.  What's important is that you've tried!

10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: jaredboice on December 18, 2014, 03:19:53 PM
^NotLampchop also a troll  :D


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: ajw7989 on December 18, 2014, 03:21:08 PM
Of course btc will shoot up if it becomes an ETF the real challenge is IF it becomes an ETF. 10k might be a little crazy but 1k is more realistic within the first year of becoming an ETF if it makes it


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: NotLambchop on December 18, 2014, 03:31:50 PM
Of course btc will shoot up if it becomes an ETF the real challenge is IF it becomes an ETF. 10k might be a little crazy but 1k is more realistic within the first year of becoming an ETF if it makes it

Let your dreams comfort you as your slick BTCeanie BTCabies Bitcoin investment tanks.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: mindrust on December 18, 2014, 04:41:11 PM
Troll Spotter: mindtrust is a serial troll.  I've seen him in multiple threads spewing his FUD. just add to ignore list

This is a speculation thread.

Do you know what means "SPECULATION" ?


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: erre on December 18, 2014, 04:51:27 PM
10k by next week, when the ETF launches. 100k by Christmas.

https://i.imgur.com/2JbjCXh.gif



can't stop laughing at that GIF... does that make me a bad person?

Yes, poor kitty :(

It's okay, he still had all nine lives when that was filmed.

He didn't die, there are some photos of him on the Internet. He is just a little bit pissed off  for being linked in a public forum. And no, he did not buy bitcoins:

http://m.quickmeme.com/img/32/328102029f7e4c98787343d58820601e0d24fb333207a7da24d3401fd2535ee6.jpg


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: 1Referee on December 19, 2014, 01:38:34 AM
Only noobs panic.

People with at least some level of trading experience are having a good time now.

It might be the last chance to buy at these levels, don't miss it.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: rogerdonkey on December 19, 2014, 04:59:45 AM
Only noobs panic.

People with at least some level of trading experience are having a good time now.

It might be the last chance to buy at these levels, don't miss it.

agree dont panic, its time to buy it now...


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: lyth0s on December 19, 2014, 07:13:12 AM
It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

Thank you for your analysis. It'll be interesting if the low is truly in the high 200's.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: Melbustus on December 19, 2014, 08:11:18 AM
It did quite a bit more than just go from 15 to 1200 and back to the current 330's.

I've posted a similar thing a few times before, but I'll try to be a bit more concise here.

A look at bubble peak / correction bottom magnitudes in BTC. Numbers rough estimates:

2011: peak in the 30's, post-peak bottom: 6.25% of peak price.
2013: peak at 266, post-peak bottom: 15% of peak price.
2013-2014: peak at 1166. post-peak bottom: TBD

If the crash is as severe as in 2011, the bottom would be about 73 USD/BTC.
If the crash is as severe as in 2013, bubble 1, that would put the bottom at 175 USD.

If you assume bubble volatility is decreasing, you can do some  horrible overinterpretation of the two datapoints we have.

Assuming a linear decrease in volatility, comparing the known peak-to-bottom ratios, you would expect a bottom at 23.75% of peak. That's 277 USD.

Assuming the ratio itself changes as much this time as it did pefore, you'd expect a bottom at 36%, 420 USD. That expectation obviously has been invalidated.

Note: These are not predictions. Maybe interesting for post fact evaluation of overall market changes.
 

I don't think the 2013 spring peak-to-trough number is correct. Specifically, it looks like you're using $40 as the post-$266 low, but IIRC, it never broke below $50.00.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: WhatsBitcoin on December 19, 2014, 08:15:10 AM
Down, down, down. Thats all I ever see nowadays when I go to bitstamp.net.


Title: Re: don't panic, btc is doing well !
Post by: CrazyRabbi on December 19, 2014, 08:15:21 AM
I tend to not care for Speculation at every minute of the day for Bitcoin...

If the price goes up the price goes up...

If the price goes down the price goes down...

I'm not worried every second of the day about it and I don't think there's really any factor at all it's just the fact that sometimes people don't wanna pay $1000 a Bitcoin and sometimes they do...  :D