Bitcoin Forum

Recently, I heard about the martingale strategy and I was wondering about it. Are there any flaws with it? If you haven't heard of the strategy, it's basically when you bet twice the amount you lost.

Say I bet 0.01 then if I lose I would bet 0.02 then 0.04 and so on until I win. Is there anything wrong with this? If you don't have much bitcoins you could bet 1 satoshi.   
     

all martingale does is shifting the odds.

lets say you play a dice game offering only 50:50 odds. using martingale you can make 25:75 for you (you win more often but less).

its still -EV: so only way to win is not to play ;)

PS: martingale does work if you have a game with does not have a bet-maximum: you wont find any...

So this method doesn't work then?

not if you want to make money.

It is very risky. It will erode all your balance if you loss your bets. It is my own experience.

Nope. There are some nice simulations that i cant find right now. Basically you need infinite money supply in order to be sure. And most gambling tables will have a maximum.

its good but if 15-20 lossing streak comes, i dont know what will you feel  :D

I call martingale, "martinfail". I always lose when i martingale for some reason. You need to have really deep pockets for martinfail to work. I have lost 350K of reddcoins once using martinfail. Sine then, i have stopped playing martinfail. Now my strat is simple, i play at 21% win chance with a 50% upgrade on every loss. Seems to be working well for me so far. There have been the occasional losses, but nothing that i could not recover from. Still, you will need a huge balance to even attempt something like this and its clearly not for the weak of heart :D

martingale doesnt work for me, in the end you will lose all your bitcoins  :-\

i agree too
i think good choice that Equal bets rather than martingale

I mean if you bet 1 satoshi it will work for a looong time since:

1           
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
8192
16384
32768
65536
131072
262144
524288
1048576
2097152
4194304
8388608
16777216
33554432  At this point you need a 26 loss streak to lose


If you have 1 btc you can afford all these bets (last bet is 0.33)

So yea 26 loss streak is extremely rare, on the other side betting 1 satoshi is really low (right now 10k satoshi = 0.03 USD)
Meaning that you are basically betting 0.000003 each bet so you need to win 10.000 bets to win just 0.03 USD
100.000 to win 0.3 and 1 million to win 3USD, Unless you have a betting bot that can do that extremely fast i dont see how it would work

It works great. It guarantees winning, you 'only' need 2 things:

1) unlimited funds
2) fair game with no max bet limit

Just a side note: some time ago Dooglus published a records from JustDice, the longest martingale streaks (win/lose) were both above 30.

unfortunately no strategy works in gambling

Indeed, in gambling it's just about the EV. Dice games (and casinos like the one I'm referring, etc.) all have negative EV.

If you want to gamble, try poker, find a table with a reckless guy who goes all in all the time, and call him when you have a high pocket pair. You'll play at +EV, you can check the probability down here. You'll have to be patient because those sucker usually don't last  ;D

http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/preflop_hand_comparisons

Wrong. You assumed that every bet is a winning bet. In practice, you'd need at least double that number.

But you're right, with the example you stated, without superfast bot, it won't even cover the electricity cost.

It's better idea to modify martingale. What I prefer to do is set payout rate at around x1.1 and then (on loss) multiply basic stake by slightly above x10. Then most of the bets are winning bets (statistically 9 out of 10). That massively speeds up the process.

it's not easy bet more and more sats when you keep losing. Trust me.

Don't use it unless you use it  to gain even a small profit. Don't run auto bets using martingale system or you will end up losing everything you have. Just use it wisely and carefully.

Martingale might be successful for short term profit. But eventually, you will get a long streak and will lose your entire bankroll. On Just dice, there was a guy who had a losing streak of 28.

Yes, or have a max bet limit, I used to go to 2^5 as max, then from the min. Just place a max bet limit and it should be fine as long as you use it smart.

Martingale is a great way to make some profits before inevitably losing everything on one bad streak.

You are right.
Even if you win 1 sato per second it would still take you a lot of days to win 1BTC.

And 20+ loss streak is not smth unbelievable.

Investing in dice sites is more often than not, much more profitable and less risky that satoshi botting. You WILL hit that streak if you leave the bot running forever. It's almost a guarantee.

You're better off betting your bankroll at 49.5% once and stopping with double profits, or nothing. It's the same outcome with small botting, but with a chance or much higher profits.

I think it is not a good strategy , at the end it's only a question of luck.

Lol..how can we check if Martingale is not rigged?

What do you mean? You can verify your rolls on provably fair dice sites to check what the rolls are after you change your seed.

The only way to guarantee profits with martingale is to have unlimited funds, and I truly mean unlimited.

get ur exle for martingele sir =B3*120%

or like this??
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=768254.msg9342143#msg9342143

Nice "strategy". I'll bet 1 bitcoin that eventually you'll lose it all if you continue.

Yes of course , it is only a question of luck . At the end you will always  lose .

All gambling is based on luck, all gambling sites have odds in their favour thus you need more luck. I run diceoncrack.com which offers automated martingale strategies and I can't say the house always wins even though odds are slightly biased towards the house, but I can say the average is always positive for the house, as it has to be or there would be no house.

There's this saying in poker that it's not about knowing when to bet, it's knowing when to fold. That is true, I believe, for all gambling and it is most certainly true here. You might walk out with a hefty profit but it is hard to not fall for the psychological trap where after a winning streak you believe that since you've been winning you'll continue to win... and that's where martingale is particularly unforgiving :)

It does not work due to users reporting 30+ loss streaks on dice sites (not gonna name anyone here...).

If you find a site that does not hit 27+ loss streaks then you can profit... even then you'll need some serious capital and time to setup everything.


In general if you're really devoted and investigate multiple sites you're most likely to profit 0.05 % - 1 % daily (realistically you're looking at 0.05-0.07%.


You'll need alteast 1 bc for it to be worth your time otherwise you better off just getting faucets and yoloing them.

Yes there is. You usually win small amounts for a long time, but eventually lose everything in few minutes. Try it.

start low and bet with bot
pray that u dont get streaks of losses

MWAHAAA!1

Dice do not believe in gods. They are slaves of statistics :)

Thanks for all your replies guys!

I'm going to go to freebitco.in and just try the martingale with the free bitcoins they give me. I"m going to roll 500 times and I'll post the results.   

OK

So I entered the captcha code and I got 0.00000589 and after 500 rolls, my grand total is........0.00000832!


I'm just lucky I haven't encountered a mass losing streak yet.
   
   

If you haven't done any mathematical modeling for it then you should not be using martingale....

It appears to "work" at first however in the end it will bust you unless you know what you're doing.

In short: It does not work.