Bitcoin Forum

I've turned permabear ;D. Bitcoin will be replaced by a POS-coin distributed by a government or a really large organisation, here is why:

All traditional currencies have something in common: they were initially created by an authority in which a lot of people put their faith in, an authority which they didn't mind would benefit from the inflation/creation of the currency. Sure, many of said currencies were officially backed by gold, but people accepted that the backing inevitably would get fractional.

Bitcoin is mostly issued by lucky early adopters / mining-speculators, which is exactly the kind of people that society would hate to see benefit from currency issuance.

The advantages of the incoming competition will end up making bitcoin worth nothing more than collector's stamps. The fact that the competition isn't visible or even existent yet, doesn't mean than it's not coming.

We will see the benefits of cryptocurrencies for humanity, but it won't be Bitcoin, or any of todays altcoins.

The question is when does the collapse of Bitcoin start. Could be 5 years or 5 weeks from now.

Crypto is either decentralized or it's not worth switching on a computer for.

What you talk about already exists in many varieties and is centralized, any fiat currency or credits issued by a company fit what you just described.

A POS-coin doesn't have to be centralized. Just because it's issued by a central authority at first, doesn't mean it can't be open-source and decentralized. Were you thinking about Ripple? It doesn't really have a recognized large authority behind it.

What would be their motives to issue this currency and what are the advantages for these entities compared to what they issue now? PoS is fine, but it has to be decentralized or it's not worth it. A company or government aren't interested unless they can control most of the supply AKA centralized (not worth it, same as what we have now with fiat currencies).

This can't happen. The risk to lose the control over the coin, after some years, is too big.
And they have "fiat": a system which, in their opinion is good enough.

They would be interested if their coin catches on, and they get to keep 10%, while the rest is distributed "fairly". If they control most of the supply, it cannot catch on.

It's better to have 10% of the leading cryptocurrency, than to have nothing, so there is the motivation to do it first. The first one which is internationally recognized by world finance will win.

Bitcoin will stay. But no one can say how many people will use it.

Countries could use the Blockchain technology to track EVERY SINGLE thing you buy via the blockchain..

The ablity to oppress people with the blockchain is a very real and horrible thing.

I have a feeling before I die there will be wars fought over this(There must be or freedom dies)... civil ones... when govs attempt to implment this on their people under the idea of "protceting you from terrorism"

They already track everything you buy through centralized systems (credit cards, banks), why go through all the hassle to maintain a blockchain? There is no advantage for them here.

Thinking the same way.

Government, after all, have the gun to enforce the law and protect citizens from scammers.

92% of the world's money supply or more already exists digitally and they are sent from one place to another with closed centralized systems. There is no incentive for them to change it into a coin because as it stands they can control the supply easily. Propietary closed system Fiat is great at what it currently does (control, inflate, propagate money), to use a SECURE Blockchain means to decentralize that control.

Things it doesn't do:
1) Garanteed scarcity
2) It's not an open system (only financial institutions have access)
3) No open internet use (credit cards)

I totally agree, but for those in power those are features.

I know I wont be using any "POS-coin distributed by a government or a really large organisation". I will be using bitcoin forever.

You're part of a tiny minority being dogmatic about money.

I should add that you may be right. I think many coins will come and go. However I only trust open-source decentralized currency. For me the concern is about control. Any distributed coin has it's price, distribution, and supply controlled by some entity. The temptation to manipulate such a currency is just to much for any authority to ignore. What you end up with are frequent flyer miles. I have no use for coupons.   

Perhaps you should reconsider your understanding of "decentralized" then.

Bitcoin has no central authority or controlling entity. That's what I mean.

Most seem to be thinking in first world terms where their currencies are relatively stable and life trundles along quite nicely, even if there are shit storms brewing underneath.

In that scenario Bitcoin is still a curio and luxury item in a way.

There are many, many places in the world where that isn't the case and probably never will be. Those are the areas it needs to reach and that's what'll make everyone realise what it was created for.

Replaced by a POS coin? Naah, youre getting this wrong buddy. All alts have no longterm future if bitcoin doesn't do well.

He may be correct, however people will not use any kind of PoS coin above bitcoin in any large number. Bitcoin already offers many more features then any other altcoin can offer and is much more secure so there is no real reason to use any altcoin

Gold, silver, copper, diamonds, emeralds, gems, rocks, pebbles and dust have never been created by an authority and are "decentralized". Bitcoin is a commodity not a currency because as you've already stated currencies are "issued". You should be worried about paper, stocks, fiat etc collapsing to zero but not commodities whatsoever.

What is "it" exactly?

True, but they're not cryptocurrencies, so, they require a trusted third party in order to be programmable, be sent over the Internet, etc... These third parties tend not to survive the regulatory pressure (see E-gold).

It's both. Currencies are merely commodities used for the exchange of value. Their scarcity is ensured through physics (metals), mathematics (crypto), or trust (fiat).
The scarcity of fiat is alway temporary, so yes, it will collapse eventually. But it will take a lot longer than most doomsday prophets say.
"it", is the cryptocurrency (as in decentralized and open-source) which will reach critical mass and, in a hundred years or less, replace the USD. "it" is what many hope Bitcoin to be (myself included), but unfortunately won't happen.

FUD thread. All points previously debunked, especially about distribution. Just because you're late to class doesn't mean you don't have to do your homework.

Actually, I'm still a holder from march 2013 (though I have sold some along the way). Read my post history, I've mostly been a permabull on Bitcoin.

Litecoin will take over and kill all others....or stay no. 2 , silver style :-)

If people decide Bitcoin is worth it, they will go for Bitcoin. Litecoin I hope it takes over but I don't see a real use for more than Bitcoin. Why more than one coin really? Unless speculation wise, I dont see whats the point of being a merchant accepting more than one coin.

I agree that some governments will create their own local premined or PoS cryptofiat, they will still use Bitcoin as the reserve currency. It's already demonstrated that using a nation's local currency as the reserve currency doesn't work and I doubt any nation wants to do what America had to do to protect its central banks. But that all won't happen until another coin is battle tested like Bitcoin. So someone is going to have to sink a whole lot of money into testing one because most people don't care about experimental cryptocurrency.