Bitcoin Forum

We had a minor price increase and everyone believes this is it. What do you say?

It's merely an illusion, do not be too persistent

Some day maybe, but not next month.

So my vote

It looks to me like the downtrend might be over because we crossed 353, but I won't be sure until we cross 418. Once we cross that that's the end of "lower highs and lower lows". After that I think we'll have a few months of rattling between 400 and 600 before we pop out any higher. Just guessing, doesn't really effect me on my strategy which is longer term.

350 is the make it or break it level, lets see!

i think we will see a big rally before this year ends

no rally until the end of year.

Sorry if it is disappointing

I think we'll see it early Q1 2015

This year is not last year. I can't believe it although I wish.

What about the April-May rally? it had a higher low then a higher high. But then we continued down after that.

And where do you guys get these arbitrary prices as confirmation of the next great rally or the failure of Bitcoin? This is a serious question. $353 and $418 doesn't really mark anything except extended counter trend rally with the possibility of a sustained rally long term, but no confirmation.

And fewcoins, why is $350 make it or break it? We've been back and forth through $350 four times now. Bitcoin seems unaffected so far. I'm just curious where these numbers come from.  ???

End of year is hella bullish... Im expecting mid-end next year

Sell drugs , buy bitcoin
Jail time would be fun watching charts.
Win-win situation.

November will be a bull month, I'm pretty sure about that and possibly December too. I don't think there will be a crazy rally like last year though

just some advice butboy

I can't argue with your first point, I only said I was guessing, but we were asked to share thoughts, not prove we are right. The arbitrary points are simply the previous peaks because reactionary people will probably see them as meaningful, and the price is mostly reflective of psychology after all.

One reason it can be difficult to provide exact targets is because trend lines aren't flat. Today, breaking above the bear market trend line might require ~$460, but by the end of November, it might only require ~$440. So, there are past values that may remain constant for psychological reasons, and linear (and nonlinear) projections that don't. And then there are numbers that people just pull out of the air.

  ;D
https://i.imgur.com/5XkRFMr.jpg

I ... just don't know.

I don't have the money, the balls and the crystal ball to help me get rich, so I guess I'll die trying. But... good luck to all of us!


BTC and actually all the altcoin's price are driven by something else, not only their innovation and the cost to mine them. They are not backed by something like gold. People will buy for different reasons (support, hope to get rich, ways to make business, ways to hide wealth, ...) and it's not clear what makes them at one point make the money flow in or out BTC. I would say that Silk road 2's problems would make the money flow out from BTC and go into anonymous cryptos. But hmm.. I may be very wrong.

If someone is hoping that it will go sky high as last year in November , even though I'm not an expert but the chances of that happening is 0.0000001% but I'm glad we are moving up a lil 400$ by the end of the year is not too bad either.

Exactly.  The factors that influence bitcoin's price are very uncertain atm

The new rally has started... 400 will be a deciding point and 420 will be possible

I don't believe you, FEW coins

i think yes
we will see price bumping same like last year

Imo possibly when Second Market announces a date for when their Bitcoin exchange will open or when/if the Winklevoss's ETF gets approved we could see at least a mini rally

The chances of sky high like last year or higher are far greater than 0.0000001%.  There are plenty of people who closed their positions while it's been going down who would also be more than happy to get back in if it was going back up.  Also, keep in mind there's more people that are exposed to BTC with each one, and a year's worth of improved infrastructure since last year.

As drawn out as the fallouts post-bubbles can be in BTC's history, the actual rise of the bubble happens in a markedly opposite manner: quick and violent.

What's the reasoning behind this? Other than it's the history of bubbles. Why does it explode as opposed to steady increase?  All of a sudden demand increases 1000x and everyone buys at the same time, seems kind of remote? Is it just crazed excitement?

Read madness and the delusion of crowds. You are right.

History does tend to repeat itself if you look at almost any other commodity, there's no logical  reason to think btc will be any different

Expect a rollercoaster because its not going to be smooth sailing on calm seas all the way

A few reasons.  

The history of bubbles is certainly one worth considering, and not to be discounted: lots of us first noticed BTC because of a bubble - it popped up in news, we read about it, either bought in then (high) or waited and watched, bought some on the way down, thinking that it could do it again.  Even though it's quite common (and true) to hear or say "past performance doesn't guarantee future performance," there is a definite psychological effect that says "well shit, BTC's spiked multiple times before, and it's going up again - I should put a little/jump in this time"

Another reason is what I mentioned in the post above.  The price has been depressed quite a bit over the last few months, as people that had held BTC were gradually selling it off to either cut their losses or take some kind of a profit.  I would venture a guess, though, that quite a few people made some hefty gains on the way up and the way down, and are now sitting largely on the sidelines while we are testing the lows, and have possibly gotten to the bottom.  If this isn't the bottom, then the market will keep trying to find it.  Once we do, however, these same people that have been sitting and waiting are also the same folks that were waiting for their buy-in point.  If a large amount of that same money comes back into BTC, there's only one direction it can go - and it will get there quickly because it's already been there before.  So the incremental jumps from 400-500, 500-600, 600-700 could very well be something that you can sit and watch in the course of a few hours or day on Bitcoin tickers.

It's definitely not so much of a case of demand increasing dramatically as it is a case of investors saying: "I have a chance of increasing my investment by hundreds or thousands of percents in a few days or weeks.  I want to invest/re-invest and don't want to get left behind"


There's a ton of herd mentality in it as well, but that should be obvious.  To call buying at the beginning of Bitcoin's bubbles madness though, seems like shortsighted marginalization - there are some of us on this board who have made tremendous gains by paying attention to them and riding that geyser upwards.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying we are at the bottom now, or were, and are currently in the precursor phase of that event.  I'm only describing two major factors that I think have contributed to prior bubbles, and will contribute to the next one.

You realize that makes you an exceptional expert, if the numbers were indeed correct?

It is rallying already.

Looks to be running out of steam, I closed most of my position at 380 now

Smart move!! I just opened me a fresh short at 381!

 :'(

We're gonna see BTC above 1000 USD within 3-6 months. And this is a conservative estimate.

When the etf gets launched it could spike over  10,000 and stay there

I wouldn't bet against  10k bitcoins but probably not until thy next halfing of the block Reward...

shorting right now is a bit bone headed. You cannot short Bitcoin on fundamentals. Bitcoin is like an Amazon a few years ago and Tesla now. People are buying regardless of fundamentals and that is the worst scenario to short. You are basically betting on some type of horrific news coming out like Gox 2.0. Everyone that owns Bitcoin and is holding knows we are in the infancy of crypto, most are willing to weather most all storms.

At this point for Bitcoin to drop even 20% would require something like a coinbase to pull a gox. We will have more scams and hacks I am sure but nobody even blinks at most bad news anymore. The pressure on Bitcoin price is only going to build as 2015 hits and the halving approaches all the while the prospect of a Cyprus 2.0 only grows.

I BILIEVE! THIS IS GENTLEMEN!!

http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2lxkqk/daily_discussion_tuesday_november_11_2014/cm0085i

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/2m1brp/this_is_gentlemen/

Too much greed on this page alone, makes me think this rally will have a sharp fall...

Fewcoins, do you have anything better to do? It's up 8-9% today ALONE ALREADY hahaha. Here's a chart explaining why this is happening and where it's headed http://imgur.com/Hf3AcQ6,piL7U3L#1

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=PF_iorX_MAw

I guess we can say that this is at least a small RULLY.

Can't wait to see if we get past 420

You saw it, what next ? :)

450.

once we hit 500 I think there'll be nowhere to go but up. Adoption is great, altcoins are dying and all is well

Exactly. Too many altcoins. I mean, I like 3-4 of them, maybe is room for a bunch but not hunderds of them. Quick boys, dump those altcoins and come to play men!

Gentlemen?

I'm hodling on to my XCP.  :D

stupid meme... "this is gentlemen"... somebody mistyped and it became a meme (well, almost), similar to HODL

lost crazy a lot of btc daytrading today, pffff
Now I'm all in in bitcoin and everything in my cold storage, don't want to risk being in fiat when we make a new jump

Pricw is going down again in btc e.