Bitcoin Forum

Predictious (https://www.predictious.com) users had correctly predicted that the Republicans would win the Senate and the House (as you can see below the shares were traded above mBTC5 for a long time, this means that the market valued the possibility that Republican would win more than the possibility that Democrats would win).

Prediction markets are often more accurate than polls because people placing money on an outcome are usually fairly confident with it, otherwise they wouldn’t be betting money on it! In addition to this powerful incentive to predict right, prediction markets preserve anonymity, and the results then reflect more realistic assessments of people’s opinions, as they do not worry about reputation, authority or acceptability.

So what about the Presidential Primaries?
So far Rand Paul (https://www.predictious.com/politics/republican-presidential-primaries-2016) and Hillary Clinton (https://www.predictious.com/politics/democratic-presidential-primaries-2016) are the favorites (Hillary is also at the top for the Presidential election market (https://www.predictious.com/politics/us-presidential-election-2016)).

http://blog.predictious.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/senate-election.pnghttp://blog.predictious.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/house-election.png

peer-pressure.

This is generally not something that is very accurate as there is a lot that can affect the outcome of an election, and most of what can potentially affect the outcome is not know to the "markets" that make up the prediction markets

I agree. Politicians are notorious for having a lot of "dirty laundry" that the voting public does not know about, and if this laundry is "aired" then people will likely vote a different way.

Also politicians often say things that make them essentially unelectable despite their previous potential for getting elected

Totally agree. But when you use bitcoin, it is based on your discredtion, and it is still like a gamble. You have 50% chance to win.

Prediction markets are not new. They have existed long before bitconi and have long been generally inaccurate when compared to other measures of predicting future events

What makes prediction markets accurate is when people with inside information put their money in it. But US elections are public enough where there isn't very much that is strictly inside. There are exceptions. For example anyone who would bet now that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency is a fool (for more than one reason  ;D)  because you could be betting against staffers and advisors who know she has no intention of even running and can safely put everything they own in the market. She could even have her own money in it.

The best idea I've heard about this is using a prediction market to predict acts of terrorism. Those bastards will not be able to pass up an opportunity to make some money on it, especially if they can use crypto.

Calling it now - Hillary clinton will be elected in 2016.

The next major false flag will be under her dictatorship as well :)

People with inside information only have a limited amount of money to "invest" in the prediction markets. As a result they will not be able to change the market to reflect the exact results and the market has zero way of knowing when someone with inside information is trading

Not the exact results, but enough to make it not worth your while. Let's say you go to the racetrack. Even one guy who knows the race is fixed with $1000 on the board is going to distort the odds enough to take a  considerable bite out of your margin. Betting as a business does not have very much margin.

Here's another example, let's say you're playing poker. If the guy next to you can see your cards, you are going to lose, big. But let's say he can see the cards of the guy on the other side of him. Would you still play? Not me, no way, just that little bit of extra information he has is enough to erase the edge of even a skilled poker player at the table who doesn't have the information.