Bitcoin Forum

I am terrible at market timing and technical analysis.

In previous BTC crashes, I was euphoric at the top even though I should have known better. I actually bought a little at the top!

I might be the "stupid money". :D

Which brings me to right now. There've been a couple of posts about losing faith and contemplating suicide (hope that one was exaggerating). Recently, I've started feeling it too. I've started really believing "facts" that say that BTC will collapse. The negative pressure on price from mining and merchant adoption. The lack of any real adoption after so many years. Willy bot. The Chinese. I now really feel that BTC will drop down to zero. I am despondent. I no longer care. This is the longest bear market so far.

This is like USD euphoria. Does this mean that USD is about to crash?

The recent jump on 2014-11-13 to 418 could be significant (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=676333). Weekly parabolic SAR just flipped. 3 day MACD has been green for awhile.

If you believe in the technology and the concept then you have nothing to worry about.
In 10 years BTC will either be a failure and worth nothing or a success worth a lot of money. I don't believe there will be a middle ground. Until then, pick up another hobby and take your mind off it. Save those private keys just in case  ;)

It's people like you who keep Bitcoin going! Bitcoin is zero sum - for every winner, there has to be a loser. We need all the suckers we can get! Keep trading!

I think he is offering himself up as a contrarian indicator.

it could still be a success and not "worth" a lot of money in terms of price of BTC/USD.

If it's supposed to be a replacement for fiat currencies, then if it becomes widely used it will be a success.  To me that shouldn't have to do with price.

Zero might be overstated, but it will far more likely keep dropping long term than actually rising out of the current predicament. This forum is for me another indicator that Bitcoin is slowly dying, as overall activity seems to be getting lower and lower which suggests that many people have actually lost interest in Bitcoin. Bitcoin will probably be doomed to be a failed experiment, only to be overtaken by other crypto's. And then there's the looming problems connected with Bitcoin: one party consolidating 51% of all hashing power, miners dumping all the coins they stacked up by now, the fact that China still is way too important in turns of volume (although other crypto got that problem as well), the uncertainties regarding the lost Gox coins (if they ever existed that is) and above all two other things: the lack of real adoption as you stated and the inevitability that governments will simply hunt down Bitcoin exchanges and all other places where Bitcoins might be cashed in for fiat. Some of the diehard crypto-anarchists here should get out of their dreamworld and accept that uncle Sam will never allow losses in taxes or fraud in general, if it can be averted.

for sure you are right. definite sell. 100% never gonna be worth anything!

It is worth something alright, and it will remain to be worth something on the probable ride down. Question is how much.

Here's the shortest version of the argument I can make why I'm not worried about the mid to mid-long term prospect of Bitcoin and its per unit market value in USD:

1. Because of the bootstrapping slash miner-rewarding nature of our little experiment (the true believers don't like it if you call it "inflationary", so I avoid that term :P), the market must absorb a substantial amount of new coins each period which translates into a USD amount the market must be willing to put into BTC each day/week/month, otherwise the per unit value will drop.

2. The exact extent of this demand is difficult to gauge, depending on many factors not under our direct observation (ratio new coins held vs. put on the market, for example, or on-exchange buying and selling vs. off-exchange), but probably the single most telling factor at our disposal that there is sufficiently strong demand (apart from price itself) is on-exchange volume.

3. On-exchange volume is the highest in about year.

Fin

No you aren't, as you are trying to analyze your feelings. That is correct, all losses result from emotional trading, and all wins from cold-bloodied calculation. So if you don't trust your calculation, simply do the opposite of what your emotions tell you to. That way, you beat the stupid monkey inside with the higher form of logic :)

And now is definitely one of few last chances to buy; and then keep your fingers off the sell button while we are in 3-digit territory, no matter what inner monkey tells you :)

I would say that people who had purchased at previous bubble highs are very happy today assuming they did not end up selling their bitcoin prematurely. You may be in the "red" now however over the long timer you will likely profit handsomely.

LOL. Dude, if the OP is true be advised to stay away from speculation. Just buy and hold and do something else with your precious time. Not everyone is good at speculation.

Emotions and trading do very bad go together.

don't worry you just buy a little top, there are more higher tops to sell  ;D

Yes, that's exactly what I was doing.

I am also trying to be my own contrarian indicator. :D

Some notable figure has called bitcoin a mirage for a reason.