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Title: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Nagle on December 10, 2014, 07:18:46 PM Since the beginning of October, the price of Bitcoin has been about where it is now, $350 ± 50. There were brief excursions outside that range, but they didn't last. Difficulty has also leveled off. The last difficulty was a slight downward change.
What if that's what 2015 looks like? The Silk Road and China bubbles have run its course. Without some big outside event, there's no particular reason for the price to move much. The speculators would be bored, but as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin might be more useful. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Bobsurplus on December 10, 2014, 07:21:42 PM Since the beginning of October, the price of Bitcoin has been about where it is now, $350 ± 50. There were brief excursions outside that range, but they didn't last. Difficulty has also leveled off. The last difficulty was a slight downward change. What if that's what 2015 looks like? The Silk Road and China bubbles have run its course. Without some big outside event, there's no particular reason for the price to move much. The speculators would be bored, but as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin might be more useful. I have three letters for you. ETF Have a good day! Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: NarC on December 10, 2014, 07:23:02 PM Agreed.
A stable bitcoin will be great for mainstream. Although there are alot of users that have large amounts of bitcoin, manipulation could be one factor for price fluctuation? Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Bobsurplus on December 10, 2014, 07:25:25 PM Agreed. A stable bitcoin will be great for mainstream. Although there are alot of users that have large amounts of bitcoin, manipulation could be one factor for price fluctuation? Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: pawel7777 on December 10, 2014, 10:13:47 PM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: bitcoin_purist on December 10, 2014, 10:20:25 PM Price is not going to level off.
Price is going much lower from here. I've heard it could go as low as 220 from someone who made a lot of bitcoins with trading. Of course it will go up afterwards, so stay calm and hodl if you're not sure what to do. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Bobsurplus on December 10, 2014, 10:31:38 PM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Ummmm... How about the TRILLIONS of dollars that's managed by the banks and the hedge funds. ;D Whats a 5B market cap to people who play with trillions??? ;) Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: wadili89 on December 10, 2014, 10:36:36 PM Levelling off is good as it means Bitcoins can be used what they were intended to do - act as a currency. The high volatility means it is not useful as currency yet, stability will be good in that regard.
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: pawel7777 on December 10, 2014, 10:39:55 PM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Ummmm... How about the TRILLIONS of dollars that's managed by the banks and the hedge funds. ;D Whats a 5B market cap to people who play with trillions??? ;) Doesn't matter. Sure, it won't be possible anymore to manipulate with few thousands $, but we're talking about majority BITCOIN holders. Those will still be able to play with the market price, maybe not for long, but still. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Bobsurplus on December 10, 2014, 10:43:51 PM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Ummmm... How about the TRILLIONS of dollars that's managed by the banks and the hedge funds. ;D Whats a 5B market cap to people who play with trillions??? ;) Doesn't matter. Sure, it won't be possible anymore to manipulate with few thousands $, but we're talking about majority BITCOIN holders. Those will still be able to play with the market price, maybe not for long, but still. You dont get it.. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: pawel7777 on December 10, 2014, 10:51:07 PM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Ummmm... How about the TRILLIONS of dollars that's managed by the banks and the hedge funds. ;D Whats a 5B market cap to people who play with trillions??? ;) Doesn't matter. Sure, it won't be possible anymore to manipulate with few thousands $, but we're talking about majority BITCOIN holders. Those will still be able to play with the market price, maybe not for long, but still. You dont get it.. Obviously, that's why I asked. What's going to prevent Satoshi from crashing the price if he decides to dump his 1 million BTC? ELI5? Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: mlferro on December 11, 2014, 02:42:28 AM I agree and hope not
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: electerium on December 11, 2014, 02:51:48 AM Bob is right.
Once the ETF launches, it will create demand in it of itself. Too many money and large account managers will be tempted to hold some ETF in their accounts just out of principle. Even if many many many of these people only allocate 0.01% of their funds into the Bitcoin ETF, that translates to billions in it of itself; and the ETF is usually bound to have an expected, known and constant backing of actual bitcoin which must increase relative to shares held/sold. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: exoton on December 11, 2014, 03:43:20 AM I agree that if/when the COIN EFT (or any other bitcoin EFT) finally launches, the price will likely launch upward significantly as many more people will have the opportunity to invest and invest in a way that does not require them to use advanced security measures to keep their investment from getting stolen.
In response to the question in the OP - it would likely result in higher overall consumer adoption as consumers will be less at risk to have their purchasing power chance between the time they buy their bitcoin and the time they get to spend it Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: maurya78 on December 11, 2014, 03:46:23 AM I wouldn't mind this scenario. At the end of the day, we presumably want bitcoin to succeed more than we want to profit from appreciation.
That said, can't see it pan out that way. History of volatility too deep, will kick in again at some point. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: BittBurger on December 11, 2014, 04:04:05 AM Stability?
Im not sure we realize what stability means when it comes to a currency. The fluctuations Bitcoin has right now are still astronomical for "stability in a currency". We are not in a "stable" place with Bitcoin. Never have been, yet. When Bitcoin no longer budges aside from a quarter-of-a-penny in US Dollar worth on a daily basis, then you have the stability needed for a "stable currency". And when do you think that is going to become the reality? -B- Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: jc01480 on December 11, 2014, 04:30:01 AM I agree that it will go much lower if not equivalent to where alt coins are present day. After that we'll experience sporadic spikes nothing like the 2012-2013 one. Much smaller in scale. Do what the U.S. does to increase value: start another war... I kid.
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: QuestionAuthority on December 11, 2014, 05:27:07 AM Bitcoin will never level off. It's just going to keep increasing in value as more users enter the market. That doesn't mean tomorrow. It might take 20 years but eventually it will happen. There will be down trends during that time but overall it has to increase in value because of the built in scarcity.
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Ektra on December 11, 2014, 05:41:40 AM I wouldn't rule out bouncing around in a range.. That range would probably be measured in the hundreds of dollars wide, though.
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Melbustus on December 11, 2014, 05:44:15 AM Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more. With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now? It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling. John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact: We might see $3. After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days. no one's listening to you.Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:
If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too. Those people you kept from "making a big financial mistake"....you actually prevented from making a 5000%-10000% return! A few more quotes: I've been saying "long slow slide" for months. That happened. Now we're seeing the endgame, which looks like the endgame for most penny stocks. The volume is low, around $50,000 per day. Some of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth; the actual volume out of the market is smaller. The price moves around whenever anybody makes a sizable transaction. I'm not expecting a big drop, just random noise with a long-term downtrend. Bitcoin is now useless as a currency, because liquidating the day's receipts for one reasonably sized store would crash the market. The end is coming not with a bang, but with a whimper. ...It's zombie mode, the fate of many startups. They're not going anywhere, they can't pay back their investors, but they generate just enough activity to keep alive. And I just briefly looked at your post history cuz I remember your trolling from 2011. You have many months worth of posts predicting the "endgame" of bitcoin as a result of the 2011 ramp and fall. There are probably a good deal more blantantly wrong predictions/statements from you that one could dig up. A couple interesting quotes, though: ... I'd like to see a digital currency that works well enough to compete with Paypal. I've seen Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz tank. Bitcoin isn't going to do much better. ... Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending. That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. Despite the fact that you seem to realize that bitcoin is the first decentralized digital cash (and hence, the first *actual* realization of the efforts of all those early digital-money guys from the 80s and 90s; ie, their "holy grail" of money), you dump it into the same bucket as Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz. THAT is possibly the core source of your intellectual errors. Bitcoin is indeed not the first digital cash system. It's just the first decentralized one, and therefore, the first ideal money for modern times. That makes it a different beast entirely. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Melbustus on December 11, 2014, 05:52:52 AM https://i.imgur.com/yjmVyhp.png
^ From Nagle's site: www.downside.com. Note the date and magnitude of the y-axis. (and here's the most recent archive.org snapshot in case the homepage of downside.com changes suddenly: https://web.archive.org/web/20140727072851/http://www.downside.com/) tldr: Nagle has been aggressively & consistently wrong about bitcoin for years. Take his opinion for what it's worth. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: bornil267645 on December 11, 2014, 06:15:06 AM That would mean more and more people trusting on Bitcoin.
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Bizmark13 on December 11, 2014, 08:24:27 AM Bitcoin now looks like a mature technology. The software has settled down, there's been a modest level of merchant adoption, the transaction rate hasn't increased all that much over the last six months, and the legal status has become clear. The mining side is running into power consumption cost as a limit. Bitcoin isn't a new thing any more. With Bitcoin out of its startup phase, what happens now? It's starting to look like a niche product, positioned somewhat like gift cards. There are a number of pseudo-currencies like that - airline frequent flyer miles, all those "reward point" schemes, and the big array of prepaid cards available at retail outlets. They're just little convenience things; they have no significant impact on the financial system. It looks like that's where Bitcoin is settling. John, you've been consistently wrong analyzing bitcoin's ecosystem and long-term prospects for years. Aggressively wrong, in fact: We might see $3. After each big drop, there's been some recovery. But each top was lower than the last, and each recovery lasted no more than three days. no one's listening to you.Now let's have a look at "cypherdoc"'s track record:
If he's telling the truth, he's lost a lot of money in Bitcoin. Anybody fool enough to listen to him did, too. Those people you kept from "making a big financial mistake"....you actually prevented from making a 5000%-10000% return! A few more quotes: I've been saying "long slow slide" for months. That happened. Now we're seeing the endgame, which looks like the endgame for most penny stocks. The volume is low, around $50,000 per day. Some of that is 'bots running the same money back and forth; the actual volume out of the market is smaller. The price moves around whenever anybody makes a sizable transaction. I'm not expecting a big drop, just random noise with a long-term downtrend. Bitcoin is now useless as a currency, because liquidating the day's receipts for one reasonably sized store would crash the market. The end is coming not with a bang, but with a whimper. ...It's zombie mode, the fate of many startups. They're not going anywhere, they can't pay back their investors, but they generate just enough activity to keep alive. And I just briefly looked at your post history cuz I remember your trolling from 2011. You have many months worth of posts predicting the "endgame" of bitcoin as a result of the 2011 ramp and fall. There are probably a good deal more blantantly wrong predictions/statements from you that one could dig up. A couple interesting quotes, though: ... I'd like to see a digital currency that works well enough to compete with Paypal. I've seen Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz tank. Bitcoin isn't going to do much better. ... Bitcoin's innovation is not that it prevents double-spending. That was invented by David Chaum in the 1990s and formed the basis of DigiCash. Nor is "mining" new; that's from Hashcash in the 1990s. Bitcoin combines the two concepts. The end result is a lot like Digicash, but distributed. Despite the fact that you seem to realize that bitcoin is the first decentralized digital cash (and hence, the first *actual* realization of the efforts of all those early digital-money guys from the 80s and 90s; ie, their "holy grail" of money), you dump it into the same bucket as Digicash, Beenz, and Flooz. THAT is possibly the core source of your intellectual errors. Bitcoin is indeed not the first digital cash system. It's just the first decentralized one, and therefore, the first ideal money for modern times. That makes it a different beast entirely. Hindsight is 20/20. It's 2014 now and you're completely right, but you should really put those posts into perspective. 2011 was a completely different world compared to now and many of the points he stated were perfectly valid for the time they were posted in. The world found out about Bitcoin in 2011. Because of this, money started flooding in and the price of a single bitcoin exploded at around this time. After the bubble popped and the price crashed by 90%, what was left remaining were the original early adopters and - far outnumbering them - a whole bunch of people who had just discovered Bitcoin and - in the space of a few weeks, saw their investments vaporize and were convinced that Bitcoin was a failure. Most of them subsequently left in the weeks and months afterwards and almost as quickly as it began, the world soon forgot about Bitcoin. In fact, not long after the great crash, Wired Magazine published "The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin", an article that pretty much sums up the spirit and atmosphere of the Bitcoin community at the time: http://www.wired.com/2011/11/mf_bitcoin/all/ Relevant quote: Quote from: Wired Magazine In the public’s imagination, overnight the bitcoin went from being the currency of tomorrow to a dystopian joke. The Electronic Frontier Foundation quietly stopped accepting bitcoin donations. Two Irish scholars specializing in network analysis demonstrated that bitcoin wasn’t nearly as anonymous as many had assumed: They were able to identify the handles of a number of people who had donated bitcoins to Wikileaks. (The organization announced in June 2011 that it was accepting such donations.) Nontechnical newcomers to the currency, expecting it to be easy to use, were disappointed to find that an extraordinary amount of effort was required to obtain, hold, and spend bitcoins. For a time, one of the easier ways to buy them was to first use Paypal to buy Linden dollars, the virtual currency in Second Life, then trade them within that make-believe universe for bitcoins. As the tone of media coverage shifted from gee-whiz to skeptical, attention that had once been thrilling became a source of resentment. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: LiteCoinGuy on December 11, 2014, 09:34:34 AM Not once the ETF hits. Once that happens all the early adopters, and major bitcoin holders wont be able to manipulate the market anymore... On the flip side.. the market still will be manipulated, just by the banks and the hedge funds... How's that? What will prevent major holders from manipulating the market? Ummmm... How about the TRILLIONS of dollars that's managed by the banks and the hedge funds. ;D Whats a 5B market cap to people who play with trillions??? ;) even twitter has a valuation of 15B and that is just one company... ::) ----- @Melbustus haha, thx. but if there would only be bulls, price would be already on the moon. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: DOGEYOLO on December 11, 2014, 03:09:53 PM No it doesn't... what if bitcoin ends up becoming a worthless experiment? Just because it's scarce doesn't automatically imply that there will end up being a large demand for the coin which will cause panic buying and subsequent rally.
Seriously, gold bugs talk about how the price of gold needs to increase because of finite availability while gold bears argue that gold is a useless metal. BTC seems even more useless to me. /devil's advocate :-\ Bitcoin will never level off. It's just going to keep increasing in value as more users enter the market. That doesn't mean tomorrow. It might take 20 years but eventually it will happen. There will be down trends during that time but overall it has to increase in value because of the built in scarcity. Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: NotLambchop on December 11, 2014, 04:09:49 PM Sirs!
A well-balanced portfolio is the hallmark of today's informed investment enthusiast. In the unlikely eventuality of Bitcoin failing to meet your totally reasonable (and, frankly, conservative) expectations, consider this goto hedge of the Bitcoiner in the know: http://s14.postimg.org/m0wt70bj5/Capture.jpg ~Happy Investing! Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: asdlolciterquit on December 11, 2014, 05:37:43 PM Since the beginning of October, the price of Bitcoin has been about where it is now, $350 ± 50. There were brief excursions outside that range, but they didn't last. Difficulty has also leveled off. The last difficulty was a slight downward change. What if that's what 2015 looks like? The Silk Road and China bubbles have run its course. Without some big outside event, there's no particular reason for the price to move much. The speculators would be bored, but as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin might be more useful. I have three letters for you. ETF Have a good day! when? when? when? it's years that i hear about this ETF! Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Nagle on December 11, 2014, 06:43:06 PM I have three letters for you. The Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They bought Bitcoins a long time ago, and have too many to sell without crashing the market. Their ETF scheme cashes them out of Bitcoins. ETF Have a good day! Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: Amph on December 11, 2014, 08:23:16 PM Price is not going to level off. Price is going much lower from here. I've heard it could go as low as 220 from someone who made a lot of bitcoins with trading. Of course it will go up afterwards, so stay calm and hodl if you're not sure what to do. heard from who? crystall ass ball? same chance to level off as to go down, actually better change for the first the price usually stabilized before the next boom Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: NotLambchop on December 11, 2014, 08:27:22 PM ^heading down nao :-\
Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: fewcoins on December 12, 2014, 02:13:00 AM I have three letters for you. The Winkelvoss ETF is a dump. They bought Bitcoins a long time ago, and have too many to sell without crashing the market. Their ETF scheme cashes them out of Bitcoins. ETF Have a good day! Wow thank you for bring smart... Most of these idiots think the ETF will somehow save bitcoin. Smfh!! Title: Re: What if Bitcoin just levels off? Post by: QuestionAuthority on December 12, 2014, 06:47:06 AM No it doesn't... what if bitcoin ends up becoming a worthless experiment? Just because it's scarce doesn't automatically imply that there will end up being a large demand for the coin which will cause panic buying and subsequent rally. Seriously, gold bugs talk about how the price of gold needs to increase because of finite availability while gold bears argue that gold is a useless metal. BTC seems even more useless to me. /devil's advocate :-\ Bitcoin will never level off. It's just going to keep increasing in value as more users enter the market. That doesn't mean tomorrow. It might take 20 years but eventually it will happen. There will be down trends during that time but overall it has to increase in value because of the built in scarcity. Or that could happen. I prefer not to think about that possibility though because I'm sitting on a shitload of bitcoins. |
