Bitcoin Forum

Russian Ruble over the past 100 years or so has lost 10 to the 14th power in purchasing power.  CNBC says the oil companies are issuing debt and buying dollars with it.  The only problem is our central bank is not that honest either.  This is the big plus for bitcoin.  Bitcoin is limited to 21 million coins.   All  bitcoin needs is more or the same number of users than last year.  The ruble also shows the failure of gold and silver backed currencies.  Through most of its history the ruble was gold and silver backed.  The reality is those pegs or exchange rates can be changed when the government or banks need money.  The only true gold currency is gold itself.

In June the number of rubles per dollar was 34.  Today it hit 65.6.  Thus Russia is in a period of hyperinflation, a 100% inflation rate over a year.  Hyperinflations are not something to hurt your neighbor with many Russians are losing their life savings and when that happens it can lead to evil like Adolf Hitler.

Furthermore for the U.S. to compete worldwide, they may have to cut wages which is not going to happen.  Thus, there could be problems in the U.S. especially when many are considering raising the minimum wage next year.

Any comments?

In 1956, Phillip Cagan wrote The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation, the book often regarded as the first serious study of hyperinflation and its effects. In his book, Cagan defined a hyperinflationary episode as starting in the month that the monthly inflation rate exceeds 50%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation)

This isn't Russia versus the US. The ruble is down towards the Euro and all the world's currencies, even the Polish Zloty! I hope it could kickstart a revolution in Russia, but Russians will probably starve to death not understanding anything.

This is because of oil prices.
USA gets cheaper oil from arabic states who doesn't care about the prices but $$$.

Also Russia is on war all the time, they need money...

Maybe.  Oil industries make up a substantial part of the Russian GDP (13.9% in 2012 (http://wdi.worldbank.org/table/3.15)).

Most likely government depended on oil revenues and spent anyways without those revenues.  Typical liberal mentality.

The Ruble is going down due to the sanctions, so obviously it weakens compared with any currency.

What kind of revolution are you hoping for? You want to see their government replaced by "US approved" oligarch? How would that benefit the average Russian?

Looks like it will hit 80 against the US$ today. It's really a crazy freefall for a non digi currency. I'm surprised Russians arent buying up Bitcoin in a panic...

Looks like its triggered by the fall in oil prices (its at 55$ this morning - was at 90$ recently and likely to fall to $45 at some point in near future) compounded by RU sanctions, in addition to US$ strength due to possibly Fed policy changes and Russian overnight nearly doubling interest rates to try to stop it falling - which didnt work which smacks of desperaion (as usual in markets, fear and technical trading is driving things more than fundamental reasons)... also Europe economy is doing better than expected so its also affecting it...

Mad month in markets...

Edit: hit 79.6 or so and bounced... Lets see if it breaks 80...
https://farm8.staticflickr.com/7559/16009576396_ef7b89852b_o.jpg

Fantastic ))) I remember 1998 )) -500% But... We do not grieve  ;) :P

Is ruble fully backed by gold??? I thought only swiss franc has that. Anyway that is the beauty of fiat issued bank notes. When the value drops and in order to counter inflation, banks can have the option to hike interest rate. 17% is not a small amount. For bitcoin to gain advantage in this area would be quite difficult and unless you can guarantee the equivalent same amount of return in a year, then it's different. And looking at the bitcoin price chart today, it's quite frustrating. Otherwise people would still hang on to fiat.

Both Russia and Switzerland have some gold, but it's not backing the currency. You can't go to the central bank and demand a specific amount of gold.

Oil prices + economic embargo.  Of course it was expected to happen.

Back in 1999, the Swiss voted 59% for changing their constitution, specifically to remove the 40% gold-backing from the Swiss Franc.
Recently, a referendum to at least require the central bank to hold 20% of its reserves at gold was proposed as a step towards reintroducing a gold standard.  It was defeated with 78% voting against.

this

It's dangerous to pick on a wounded bear.


edit: Looks like they are buying BTC at double peak volume:  http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/btceRUR#rg10ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-15/russia-shocks-emergency-rate-hike-boosts-interest-rate-105-17

here we go, the magic of fiat money

Speaking of Russia and Ruble, check out our new feature, Rouble Transfer:

https://bitcurex.com/page/rub/

Deposit RUB directly, get USD, buy BTC. Up to 3300 USD without verification. Plain and simple. :)

Regards!

INNCORRECT, no one is backed by gold, no one.  The swiss left that ages ago.. almost  re-enstated it but the banksters spent billions to scare them out of it.

I wonder if you had to have an IQ of atleast 110 to vote what would of happend.

This is not high enough.  The interest rate needs to be over 100%.  If people want to lend money they can.  I am not saying this for Russia, I am saying this for the United States too.  Low interest rates ALWAYS hurts the economy.  What happens is you get people that don't work buying up assets they don't deserve.  Just look at the private equity firms, all they do is use bank debt to buy up companies and somehow they are worth $50 million or more in salary.  What to mortgage reits do?  They lever up with Federal Reserve debt.  The dumbest kid on the block has the nicest car because when he defaults it is the poor banker that did the working man harm.

This is my prediction, what is going to happen as slowly the worst inflation countries will start to pick up some bitcoin.  Slowly a small grind will move into a larger movement.  I just wish bitcoin did not have any inflation already.  Compared to 100% inflation, they will experience 5% inflation.  People can handle losing 5% a year they won't revolt, you just get a tea party.   Relative to their own countries currency it will rise.  People in Russia that use bitcoin will be the winners, those that don't well they can pick corn.

People love cheap debt when they don't think they have to pay for it.  People become richer and move up the ranks fast on cheap debt.  If they had to go to engineering school, to earn their money, they would not be where they are.  Basically cheap debt and paper backed currencies let the non-working elite have the money and power.  The poorlove it to they can buy cars and not have to pay it back if they want to buy a new cellphone.

The Russian central bank said it would raise its key interest rate to 17 percent from 10.5 percent. It's a huge increase, looks like situation is serious for Russian government.

Omg. Russia has not hyperinflation. Russia is on the edge of runaway inflation, which is something that for example Israel lived for years with.

Also it is incredible, how people mix inflation and depreciation. Depreciation of RUB to foreign currencies was much bigger than inflation is. Depreciation for example  does not always have impact on price of domestic products, especially the ones that are created from domestic commodities. It has direct impact on imports, which get more rpicey. But Russia isalso big exprt economy and depreciation is boom for export.

And while it would be great if the crisis would help btc, it simly does not happen. Btc dropped today almost like RUB.

On the top of that Russia is oil exporting country and the depreciation of RUB is 100% correlated with drop of oil prices. The drop of course will stop and be recovered.

So you don't think the world sanctions imposed upon Russia regarding its Ukraine intervention has anything to do with it then!

You have to be an American because they are the only country who dont seem to actually know what is going on in the world beyond the USA shores!

Oh, and most Russians hold their savings in Dollars not Rubles!

And the Russians spread daily propaganda stating its the nasty west who cause all these fiancial problems!

The oil price decline will be protracted and pernicious (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=887184.msg9863110#msg9863110) because this a changing of the tide from global inflation to global deflation as explained in the linked post. QE couldn't go on indefinitely (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9812802#msg9812802).

The impact of sanctions is wastly overrated. Do not force me to have black or white stand as it is this forum standard.

Simply look at this:
http://i57.tinypic.com/2lmrzvn.jpg

And no, you are absolutely wrong about my nationality. I am born in Russian satellite state and living in another BRIC country. World is simply not so simple as you think. Russia goes now to the hell mainly because of simple battle on oil market, where OPEC countries who can mineoil at low prices compete with USA. The ultimate loser is Russia for now. No conspiracy, just market.

Yes indeed. The demand for oild will for sure drop overnight by tens of % :D How much oil you think can be mined in long term with current prices? Not much. Oil supply will drop at those prices, then prices will hike again and then the supply will raise again. Just few deep sea drills will be postponed, that is all.

This happened before and will happen again. Incredible. Always there is some doomsayer from one or second camp.

In Forex market Russian Ruble is not the main currency, so it isnpt connected with Forex market players, may be this is because of low oil price  ;D

The demand has been dropping since 2011 at least, but the market expectations were out-of-line with the reality. The price is correcting to reflect reality, but the reality is still much worse than the market realizes because much of the global economic shit hasn't hit the fan yet, but it will in earnest starting October 2015.

You didn't read my detailed  post which is linked from the post linked above. I explained how a falling oil price destroys more demand in a vicious cycle given we will be on the deflationary side of the debt misallocation mountain that created the demand in the first place, so that probably won't bottom until 2016 and $40s at least.

Eventually the global economy will bottom. If we go into a Dark Age, it can take 600 years. We have to see how bad this coming shit is...

yeah, dark age, 6000 years at least and price of barrel will be -1000 USD. Well USD will not exist at all.

We all will sell bitcoins on carved sticks and buy horses, which will be the best transportation method, I clearly see that.

What else?

Of course I didn't think a 600 year Dark Age is very likely. I suppose you missed the 2016 date in my post. I try to remain in a good mood when posting on this forum, but invariably some can't read and want to create a fight. Did I write anything in my prior post that was acrimonious?

Btw, I guess you didn't know what commodities have been on a terminal downtrend in price for 6000 years. Iron was a precious metal (http://www.coolpage.com/commentary/economic/shelby/Demise%20of%20Finance,%20Rise%20of%20Knowledge.html) before Jesus was purportedly (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=365141.msg9873921#msg9873921) born.

http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/cfn396_1.gif

How does the actual Russian government help the average Russian?
I was in Greece recently, and there were plenty of Russians who were just like me: they hate their country, and they don't want to go back there. That was before the slide of the currency...

Sorry, but this has almost nothing to do with reality. While Russians do like dollars, especially during hard times, most of the savings are in rubles. More than 10% nominal annual interest on deposits was a lot more lucrative than that on dollars. By the way, the real interest rate on ruble savings was positive (and still is).

Now they know how us bitcoiners feel. As much as i dislike Russia I think this is bad for them and don't like to see it happen. I also think this is also going to further sour diplomatic relations between the States and them which is also not a good thing.

We'll still have internet with the bitcoin sponsored satelites running our own internet :)

61.8 so rebounded slightly.  Russia holds a lot of U.S. debt so they can sell some of it to help the ruble.  They could also peg the ruble to the dollar if they wanted to.

Russia has been gradually walking away from dollar-based monetary system towards more independent interest-rate based one. So there's no sense in switching back to a pegged regime.

You didn't answer my question. What's the alternative? Right now you have 2 options, either:

1) Putin's team - I don't know whether they're doing a good job making the average Russian happy. But their goal is to keep Russia as relevant force, military and economically strong and independent. Otherwise, their power is diminished. And power is what they all are after (US, China, Russia), not "money, yachts, cars and hoes" as some 12-year old would think (these are goals for some small-town mayors).

2) Pro-western option. Likely some of the oligarchs, like a bigger version of Poroshenko (is Khodorkovsky still on the cards?). They will obviously get a great reception from US and EU, there will be a lots of smiles and handshakes. Russians will be fed with slogans that "We're finally moving towards real democracy, freedom, wealth [white doves flying in the background]". But, by the very definition, their role will be to keep Russia weak, irrelevant and dependent.

So which one's best for the average Russian? Do you see any other, realistic option?

My last time in Russia was 4 years ago, and I'm not familiar with Russian politics, so I can't talk about the options. What I see is that life expectancy is diminishing in Russia and that Russian population is shrinking. Worse than that, the Russian economy is a failure: where are the Russian products outside Russia? Chinese products are everywhere, like hard disks from Thailand, or Korean mobile phones, but Russian products are nowhere. Russian businesses just can't compete.

You should ask the Russians living on the French Riviera or in London what they think of Putin, it's only the poor uneducated peasants who support him.

I think I just need to quote this:
Moreover, it's ok that russian products are mostly for domestic use. That doesn't make our economy a failure, lol. As for international trade, we mostly trade regionally, we just didn't grow up enough for global markets yet.

What about this part:
This totally contradicts reality.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d4/Russian_male_and_female_life_expectancy.PNG

And for population: the turnaround only happened recently.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/77/Population_of_Russia.PNG

Racist shit.

Is this worded poorly, or you consider Thailand and Korea parts of China?

You know, "she is a bitch, but she is my bitch!".


I am sorry for you that you have to hate your own country. As for Russians you have met, I can tell you: "to change the World first change yourself". The same applies to you. Just ask yourself: "What I did to make my country better?".
 

12% in one day? That deflation will surely cause Russia to fall deep into trouble economically. Surprised I haven't heard anything about this on the news.

oh its been on the news alrite! Even non business news was talking about how Apple stopped selling their stuff because of the currency move.

http://www.wired.com/2014/12/apple-russia/

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-30512079

http://www.euronews.com/2014/12/17/russian-rouble-rebounds-slightly-but-remains-volatile/

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/17/news/economy/russia-economy-debt-default/index.html?iid=HP_Highlight

You don't have to be physically present in Russia to understand the situation. All you need is a very basic knowledge of politics/foreign affairs + common sense.

If you think that it's possible to replace Putin's crew with some other option who will make everyone rich, happy and yet maintain Russia as an independent/relevant force - then you must be very young or just very naïve.

There are no 'good guys' in high level politics.
 

You don't make much sense here. How come the masses of poor peasants support Putin? Following your logic, they should be the ones who hate him the most. And yet he has more support that the vast majority of western leaders could ever dreamed of.

Why should I ask Russians from French Riviera or London? How are they better than any other Russians? Are you referring to the rich Russians, related to opposition, who fled their country?


It was all over the news worldwide, how could you miss that? And think it hit 20% on that day at some point.

I like how the Russians came in and made all the Americans look like sheep for spitting out things they read that were simply not true.  ::)

Good times. I thoroughly enjoyed it.

it is likely a combination of the price of oil dropping and economic restrictions the US (and other countries) has put on Russia in response to the situation in the Ukraine.

Oil prices have fallen by more then 50% in the past few months. This would translate to a more then 7% decline in the Russian GDP which is no small decline and is plenty of a reason for their currency to go into a free fall

Oil down by 50% does not mean oil industry is down by 50%. There are refineries and transportation of oil is big part. The fees there remain constant. So the decline will be smaller than 7% (not to mention cheaper oil is stimulation for other parts of economy, e.g. tanks in Ukraine can go cheaper to Kiev :D )

Russia primarily exports the oil it extracts overseas and needs to pay a somewhat fixed cost to transport it to other countries (as well as a fixed cost to extract the oil from underground). This means that it's total oil revenues are going to decline by more then 50%.

If I'm not wrong actually Russia selling its ruble in way to collect gold. Keep mind that russia actually is the richest gold owner of the world. So, Ruble is only paper  ;D

The sanctions by EU have hit Russia harder than the sanctions by Europe.
Europe is one of the largest trading partners of Russia.

That's exactly what I did. I've changed myself since I've left the country where I was born, all for the better. Just like the Russians I've met.
Enjoy life, and don't waste it trying to save dying organizations.

Well, it's easy to understand. They are the successful Russians who have escaped to live a better life and who dislike Putin (actually, they don't talk much about it any longer), and there are the poor Russians who cannot escape, and who suffer everyday because of Putin's failure regarding economics growth and job creation. The amazing part is that all those poor Russians shall dislike Putin, but they still like him. They live poorly but something immaterial, unreal, a spiritual invention, their country (!), stays relevant a little while longer. I'm ashamed by my citizenship, and I would be much ashamed too if I were Russian.

As I got you are living not in Russia. So, how do you know what Russians feel, what they think, e.t.c.? Why do you believe that your point of view is the only one deserving to follow? Of course, you have the right to have your own opinion about Russia based on any sources of information you like, but don't speak for Russians because you have no idea.

P.S. You can run away from economic problems, regime, whatever. The only thing you can't run from - yourself.

RUSSIANS tried their rocket towards economic independence, and the fuel ran out. Now, they are back to square one with Bitcoin.

It's no surprise you keep spreading your propaganda bullshit as you don't know a fuck about Russia. Let's educate yourself before making bold statements.
https://i.imgur.com/OtXA0q2.png
https://i.imgur.com/Plx2fmJ.png

Not to say that those moving to French Riviera must have earned enough money in Russia in the first place. Must've been not as bas a place to earn money despite all the "Putin's falures"?

Very nice of yours to compare Russia with France, one of worst performing countries. How about comparing it with Germany or the UK? Or Switzerland? There are many rich Russians there, too.

Running from myself? I don't understand that. People need to run from oppressive regimes, and that's what I did, like my few Russian friends. Everything's nice since then.

You all need to understand Russian economy was boosting in last 10 years, they had no real crisis as half Europe had almost whole time. And USA had few years. Fighting against whole world is hard. Lucky for Russia country is huge and they are quite self sufficient, but as no one can be fully.


As i read in this thread. Yes. Maybe Russia will make revolution and working class will overthrow capitalistic oligarchy and for a communist state.  MAybe Russia will become new China one day.

That's exactly what I expected from you. While France was chosen because of your reference to French Riviera, it doesn't matter what country to compare to, it still invalidates your claims.
What about unemployment that recently declined to records (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-20/russia-s-unemployment-plunges-to-record-low-as-wages-grow.html), with labor shortages economy wide? What a failure on job creation.

People need to do what's best for them. For some that may be "running from oppressive regimes", but that's not the only option. It can be nice in Russia, it mostly depends on you.

actually russia converting all of its value in gold and all of its earnings in gold (russia is the first world owner of gold). In this time if America wants to buy Oil from Russia must pay only in Gold, or in US dollar (and then Russia convert instantly in Gold). If I'm not wrong, China actually is doing the same thing.

You see, you can't understand the simple thing that every Russian knows!

Please explain, then.
I guess both of us are not native English speakers, and "running from oneself" is not something meaningful to me. Or do you think about people with psychological, or identity problems, like some immigrants trying to mix with locals in their new country, but who can't, because of their skin color, or whatever?

I'm not like that. I'm a simple guy, no identity or psycho problems.

He is saying Russias problems lie with the nature and actions of its people, they allow Putin to be there not that 1 man is the cause.
Partly true I guess though Im sure you are your own person

Saudi talk Russian problems with producing oil at low cost - http://uk.businessinsider.com/saudi-oil-minister-hints-russia-doesnt-deserve-market-share-2014-12

Plus the fact that Europe is able to trade within itself and trades with both China and the US (meaning that Russia is not as an important of a trading partner to europe)

Still, Europe is hit by Russian crisis to some extent
http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/18/news/companies/russia-economy-brands-losers/

I guess he meant something like this:
http://www.mindbodygreen.com/0-12721/no-matter-where-you-go-you-cant-get-away-from-yourself.html

@RoadTrain

thank you. Exactly.

I don't like much to talk about me, and even less about my past, but leaving the country where I was born was the best thing I've ever done. Nobody liked me there.
Most people back there are just waiting for the government do help them, but I didn't want that, and I started my first business when I was 18. My friends from that time didn't like it, and they didn't help...

I'm now freer than I've ever been, living a more fulfilling life, making more money and going out with more interesting people. Just like the Russian people I've met in several places in Europe.
All that while Putin orders vodka price cap:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/24/russia-crisis-putin-vodka-idUSL6N0U81E920141224

The more the Russians drink, the less they'll understand. We'll have to agree that Putin was very smart with that move.

worth watching:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un5rsKFo7Xo

Running away from a bad environment would seem to be alot different to running away from oneself though its true wherever you go, there you are!    Losing trade with Russia does hurt Europe and other places, some worse then others but in the main Russia was and is about oil and gas and they can be replaced.
   The way Putin controls that country is not really to its benefit beyond keeping basic order which I presume they could do without him, Russia can be replaced in global trade which does make sanctions far harder for them then us.    Im not sure they will be forced to change course as they do have China and if Cuba is any example it can take a very long time to change anything

Overall I rate Putin as a moderate, he is not the worse you could have.  I fear situations like Libya where they seem to spiral downwards without forced unity, would sanctions have done better there

How do you replace 7 million barrels a day (http://www.eia.gov/countries/country-data.cfm?fips=rs) oil exports from Russia? That's like 8% of all world supply.

I do not think we can replace that amount of oil. However, the price of oil can be manipulated down.

By decreasing demand?  By other countries producing more?  By splitting coal & burning atoms?
Who knows, maybe them newfangled solar panels, windmills, and biodiesels have finally reached the tipping point? :D

If it was that easy, it would be already done. Replacing such an amount of oil is no impossible, but very costly, so improbable.

As of renewables development, if it allows us to significantly lower oil demand, then the oil industry will suffer as a whole, not only Russia.

I know next to nothing about oil, but:
Oil producers are not operating at max capacity.  They're not sucking out oil out of the ground at any cost.  Here's a (outdated) profitability chart:
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/P1-BR757_OILDRO_16U_20141029175409.jpg
If the supply is reduced by 8%, the price would go up enough to make some of the unprofitable wells profitable again.  Outcome: oil a bit more expensive, but no shortage.


Not necessarily.  Again, don't know enough to call it, but here's a hypothetical:
If it costs $30 to produce a barrel of oil in country A, and $70 in country B, would oil price dropping to $60/barrel affect both countries equally?
Of course not.  Country B would have to sell its oil at a loss :(

But you're right about renewable energy thingies, I was just joking.  Coal and nuclear - those are real, tho.

Good point. But look at this from a different angle. There is less than handful of major oil-producing countries that can bear current prices, that's because their budgets are very dependent on oil taxes.
Even Saudi Arabia has a breakeven price of oil of about $100 (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/iran-venezuela-russia-may-face-pain-from-cratering-oil-prices-2014-12-01).

Btw I admit that, thanks to shale oil and the possibility to quickly raise production, there won't be high prices in the coming years.

From your link:
"Based on Citi’s research, Libya looks as if it could be facing a serious fiscal hole, with its breakeven for 2015 at $315."

Unlikely oil will hit $315 anytime soon :(  Guess Libyans could try eating their young...
*seriously tho, do you not see a problem with that definition of "breakeven" [sic]?

Huh, I don't think a war-ravaged country is a good example here. Their oil production is less than a third of a pre-war level.
Anyways, this definition of "breakeven" means that these countries will have to cut their spending somehow. Saudi Arabia directly cuts its expenditures and digs in reserve funds (http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2014/12/25/world/middleeast/ap-ml-saudi-economy.html?_r=0), while in Russia currency devaluation helps cut budget indirectly in real terms.

According to wikip:
"Break-even (or break even) is the point of balance between making either a profit or a loss."
I agree with the wikipedos: Breaking even has nothing to do with being able to pay the mortgage or balance a country's budget.  
If Libya can charge more for a barrel of oil than it costs it to get that barrel out of the ground, Libya is doing better than breaking even.  Its other expenses are neither here nor there :)
/aspie nerd mode

Have to agree with you here. Still, that doesn't change the fact that oil-producing countries suffer from falling oil prices :)

Right. Even if it cost country B $59 to product/mine a barrel of oil the effect of $60 oil would not be the same. Country A would see a much smaller decline in net oil revenue then country B

In your example country B would need to stop mining oil until it's price rebounds for a somewhat long term before it would make sense to resume mining which would result in lost jobs and a slower economy

If the general population in Russia knew they could move to bTC easily without repercussions from Russia they would have done it and we would all be rich by now