Bitcoin Forum

Due to change in inflation scheme, what would be your best guess?

The result of the vote is showing me the middle finger right now. How cute. I do agree with the result though, more specifically I think that the price will be somewhere between $10 and $15 on that date.

Around $10, I think. Might be much higher, won't be lower than $5.

we'll be lucky to have it at $10 at year's end

We'll be lucky to see the price above $6.80 between now and the end of the year.  I think my prediction of single digit prices for the next year is solidly on track.

The recent price rise may be preemptive of the reward dorop. If so I can see the year ending with a speculative bubble.

$12.50.

I voted on the basis of this post, Bitcoin will (still)be giving a middle finger to the world come years end.....  ;D

The scheme is not changing. The current scheme is a constantly falling rate of inflation with discontinuities.

I think about $16 after coming down from a $30+ bubble

This is what I don't understand.  The the forecasted price increase come the block halving always seems to be double the *current* price.  A couple months ago it was $10.  Now it's $12.50.  The target keeps moving :(

And by the time we get there it will be mostly priced in.  There might be a small rise since some people will still be caught unaware, but I don't expect much.

Oh that's just beautiful! Nobody expected it will cost less than $5. Literally 0 people (at the moment of posting).

Im calling it now, the price will slump / crash to $3.

why stop at $3?

Indeed. A drop to $3 in the current Bitcoin situation can only happen if something devastating happens. If something technically devastating happens, it could easily go to pennies. So I agree with this, slow decline makes 0 sense so if you're going for a catastrophy, why stop at $3. :)

Doesn't have to be a catastrophy. Maybe something like bitcoin being made "illegal" (however that is supposed to work) in some important jurisdiction or maybe russia + china introducing a gold currency. That probably would push the price down hard, but not to $0.01.

Wouldn't making Bitcoin illegal push the price up, not down? Historically, prohibition has had little effect on demand for the prohibited goods, but has had a huge impact the available supply. Pretty much everything that has ever been made illegal has gone up in price as a direct result, resulting in huge profits for criminals. Probably not the intended effect.

Above $10 for sure folks.

It is inevitable ... people hoarding. Reward dropping, ASIC coming showing huge faith in BTC system and its viability etc.

When ASICs hit, I expect the price to drop hard until we reach a point where the value gained from mining with ASICS makes ROI about 100-200 days.

yes because the ASIC miners dont like to be too profitable, for sure they will sell off all at the same time like mad fools crashing the market...

they're not smart enough to form an oligopoly.

no way in hell, their just simple folk, pushing buttons for bitcoins


Edit: i dont mean to sound like a sarcastic bitch... you get my drift

I for one hope they do!

(double down! want to get me some $3 coins.)

-bgc

when is ASIC hitting the market?

my guess, sometime between Oct 2012 and Oct 2013, more biased towards the latter than the former

bump

buy!  :D

we can assume there will be an ever increasing number of fresh bitcoin buyers, can we not? i don't have any reason to sell bitcoin unless i am desperate for cash and need to buy something. and im sure many others are the same. why keep fiat lying around and what else are you going to invest in?

I discoverd Bitcoin in May and bought my share. Now is my friends starting to buy :)

There will be panics as the market gets too hot.

Wow you got in at the right time....besides november of last year.

I don't complain :D

neither do I...I bought when it was $4.80 to $5.20 in March.

ppl always say this and i still don't get it.  what's to stop ppl from just USING it for commerce w/o any speculation expectations?  i do that for USD's. 

When I made my fist Bitcoin purchase I didn't want to spend my hard earned Bitcoin's so I bought some and used those.  This was using it for commerce without speculation; however I only used Bitcoin because I am an enthusiast.

If the Bitcoin economy were bigger I may be compelled to just buy them. However buying them to partake in an established Bitcoin economy will create a demand for Bitcoin. When you look at the "innovation adoption curve" that demand will be filled by the innovators who have lots of BTC to sell. The people who build the economy are the Early Adopters paying the price and the benefactors are the Inovators. (the Early Adopters are key to the successful adoption of Bitcoin for mass market appeal )

In my view you need the Early Majority to adopt Bitcoin in order for it to propagate.  For that to happen the Early Adopters need a motivation to build the Bitcoin economy.  I see wild swings in boom and bust cycles as the ideal stimulant.  Boom bust to me is like gambling only cashing out without loss if you have a stable supply of BTC, one in this cycle eventually establishes a legitimate way to obtain BTC and cash out during the swing, thus the economy slowly builds, and the Early Adopters benifit. ( That is, what I am doing now except I am trickle mining, as opposed to building the economy. So technically I fall in the Innovation stage, but traders fall in the early adopters Stage.)  

So to keep this on topic I hope to see it around $8 at the end of the year - the new low for 2013 and the Bitcoin rich to sell off to the new comers and have the cycle repeat itself dropping to a low that are representative of the increasing user base.  

+1

yup it would be nice to know that this actually happening

Bump   :o

ASICs are expensive equipment because the company has to make up for the development cost and fuel a sustained business. Don't expect them to sell cheap. However, they will certainly be more competitive than FPGAs in terms of W/GH power consumption and $/GH/s hardware costs. GPUs still lead in terms of $/GH/s.

The question is really about selling pressure. And with ASICs coming to the market you just change the mix ratios ASIC/FPGA/GPU.
What makes you think ASIC miners have a larger selling pressure than FPGA or GPU miners?

I am staying with over 30 USD. I suspect a very large bear caught in a mega short squeeze.

^This.^

I have removed my over 30 USD vote as I now suspect that the very large bear may have already covered the short. The price has just been far to stable for the last few hours.

A BFL jalapeno will cost you $150 or something and deliver 3.5 Ghash/s. (http://www.butterflylabs.com/order-form-bitforce-sc-jalapeno/)

1) That may be the release price (I doubt that they will deliver at that price point). But the market price will shoot up. If you're one of the lucky ones who get that thing delivered the best strategy is to mine for a few weeks and sell it at market value for a profit.

2) Based on BFL reputation I expect the 3.5 GH/s to be too optimistic. Heat production will probably limit the chip to half of the promised value.

3) You can buy GPUs NOW. jalapenos don't exist yet. And if they do, BFL is probably mining for profit right now.