Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin => Mining speculation => Topic started by: raskul on December 17, 2014, 12:10:54 PM



Title: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 17, 2014, 12:10:54 PM
i reckon there'll be a 10% drop in hashrate this turn in.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Bananana on December 17, 2014, 12:12:05 PM
i reckon there'll be a 10% drop in hashrate this turn in.

I don't think the drop would be that much, look here https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty. It estimated 1.2% only and 10% is way too off..


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 17, 2014, 12:12:41 PM
i reckon there'll be a 10% drop in hashrate this turn in.

I don't think the drop would be that much, look here https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty. It estimated 1.2% only and 10% is way too off..

thanks for your vote in the poll, you can change your mind at a later date if you wish, in this poll


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: philipma1957 on December 17, 2014, 12:18:24 PM
I vote no.  I think people will switch back from paycoin  mining to Bitcoin mining


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 17, 2014, 12:19:07 PM
I vote no.  I think people will switch back from paycoin  mining to Bitcoin mining

where went arcade coin from your sig Phil?


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: mavericklm on December 17, 2014, 02:12:02 PM
if u work for bitmain and you know that they will ship s5 starting next week, then i believe u! :P
as philipma1957 said!


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: philipma1957 on December 17, 2014, 02:17:54 PM
I vote no.  I think people will switch back from paycoin  mining to Bitcoin mining

where went arcade coin from your sig Phil?

times change.

he is no longer a renter from me. i opened the spot yesterday and nice hash made a decent offer to rent it.

All of us miners that used nicehash or westhash since sunday and up to this friday will know they are a good company.

After friday I will still keep a few of the sp20's pointed to them


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: lovenlifelarge on December 17, 2014, 02:26:44 PM
Mining diff went from 40,000,000,000.0000

to wait for it!!!

39,000,000,000.0000

Mining diff has gone backwards as low hash miners realise the cost per hash & the current value of the coin!!

Bigger miners, Using less power will = More coin, I would further predict further movement south for the network rate as anything under 1th and over the 28nm spec is redundant & is not worth money to ever mine on ever again...

Unless of course u steal ur electricity or use solar or have ur miners at work where it cost u nothing!

If ur not mining 2th on 0.6w or less withing 8 weeks ur miners will be losing money!


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 19, 2014, 09:58:45 AM
-3.2% today - that'll be the paycoin launch, it'll go back soon.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 19, 2014, 09:59:38 AM
I vote no.  I think people will switch back from paycoin  mining to Bitcoin mining

where went arcade coin from your sig Phil?

times change.

he is no longer a renter from me. i opened the spot yesterday and nice hash made a decent offer to rent it.

All of us miners that used nicehash or westhash since sunday and up to this friday will know they are a good company.

After friday I will still keep a few of the sp20's pointed to them

yes they are a great company. very pleased with their service.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: philipma1957 on December 19, 2014, 08:16:56 PM
I vote no.  I think people will switch back from paycoin  mining to Bitcoin mining

where went arcade coin from your sig Phil?

times change.

he is no longer a renter from me. i opened the spot yesterday and nice hash made a decent offer to rent it.

All of us miners that used nicehash or westhash since sunday and up to this friday will know they are a good company.

After friday I will still keep a few of the sp20's pointed to them

yes they are a great company. very pleased with their service.

They made a lot of coin for me and a lot of other people. As for -10% right now we are at (-3.40%) with coin price at 315 usd.
These are great numbers if you have efficient miners or good power costs.  Or even better both.
I only ask for 3 more good adjustments with coins north of 300 usd.  
Say -3% for Dec 31
then +1% for Jan 14
and then +2 % for Jan 27
With those numbers we would be at 40 diff on jan 27 lasting until feb 10.
I would have thought that to be impossible now maybe it can happen.

Thanks for talking me into buying the first one and passing on a coupon to me. You made my 2014 year a + for BTC .


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: ajw7989 on December 19, 2014, 08:27:15 PM
I think 10% is too high of a drop looking more at 2-3% after btc price rises a bit


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Giulini on December 19, 2014, 08:30:38 PM
I think no.
At the moment, you still mine paycoin 100% more profitable than BTC, but after that the hashrate will switch back.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: mavericklm on December 19, 2014, 08:34:13 PM
Quote
Say -3% for Dec 31
then +1% for Jan 14
and then +2 % for Jan 27

this numbers are much too positive! sunday, monday ~20ph will be back on btc and diff will rise back to posititve  until dec31.
my opinion


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: philipma1957 on December 19, 2014, 08:42:07 PM
Quote
Say -3% for Dec 31
then +1% for Jan 14
and then +2 % for Jan 27

this numbers are much too positive! sunday, monday ~20ph will be back on btc and diff will rise back to posititve  until dec31.
my opinion

I want you to be wrong but most likely you are correct.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: OgNasty on December 19, 2014, 08:43:12 PM
i reckon there'll be a 10% drop in hashrate this turn in.

Care to make it interesting?


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: nwfella on December 19, 2014, 09:49:13 PM
Less than a 2% chance bitcoin difficulty drop will be anywhere near 10% this upcoming change.  Paycoin hash will undoubtedly be redirected back to bitcoin by the end of today. 

*Assuming titcoin doesn't end up stealing it away ;)


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Bananana on December 20, 2014, 02:22:15 AM
Another rise hike incoming, S5 is coming end of december. Mine as fast and as much as you can.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: lowbander80 on December 20, 2014, 05:54:38 AM
decrease in hash rate and this big is mainly due to paycoin and as long Gaw keeps the promised price of around 20 usd it will continue.For sure some miners are switched off and many big farmers are selling , check bitmain site selling the s4 by the Phs.
I also have seen big sales (dont know if true) 100 sp30 100 teraminers and sure the new prices from sp tec help much.
Generally there is a no Roi period since the price of BTC is low and this is a reason for all.
if we see an increase of the price to 400-500 range then will start again fast.
Since many companies now accepting bitcoin and the same time sell it for fiat the price
is unlikely that will go up soon
 


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 20, 2014, 06:59:14 AM
i reckon there'll be a 10% drop in hashrate this turn in.

Care to make it interesting?

sorry Og, i'm not a gambling man.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: xstr8guy on December 21, 2014, 12:03:21 AM
decrease in hash rate and this big is mainly due to paycoin and as long Gaw keeps the promised price of around 20 usd it will continue.For sure some miners are switched off and many big farmers are selling , check bitmain site selling the s4 by the Phs.
I also have seen big sales (dont know if true) 100 sp30 100 teraminers and sure the new prices from sp tec help much.
Generally there is a no Roi period since the price of BTC is low and this is a reason for all.
if we see an increase of the price to 400-500 range then will start again fast.
Since many companies now accepting bitcoin and the same time sell it for fiat the price
is unlikely that will go up soon
 

In case you didn't notice, SHA Paycoin mining was only for a limited time. It ended today at noon EST. So no, this trend will not continue. Everyone's back to mining BTC and the network will continue to grow... hopefully slowly.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 21, 2014, 07:38:57 AM
decrease in hash rate and this big is mainly due to paycoin and as long Gaw keeps the promised price of around 20 usd it will continue.For sure some miners are switched off and many big farmers are selling , check bitmain site selling the s4 by the Phs.
I also have seen big sales (dont know if true) 100 sp30 100 teraminers and sure the new prices from sp tec help much.
Generally there is a no Roi period since the price of BTC is low and this is a reason for all.
if we see an increase of the price to 400-500 range then will start again fast.
Since many companies now accepting bitcoin and the same time sell it for fiat the price
is unlikely that will go up soon
 

In case you didn't notice, SHA Paycoin mining was only for a limited time. It ended today at noon EST. So no, this trend will not continue. Everyone's back to mining BTC and the network will continue to grow... hopefully slowly.


hehe yeah, it was a bit optimistic of me to put 10%, we'll be luck y if we get a drop of 3%


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: raskul on December 22, 2014, 11:40:40 PM
...and there went the BMT S5 test batch.
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: dlowings on December 24, 2014, 07:03:13 PM
We are getting to the point where profit returns are not going to bring in investor farms. Overhead is going to absorb more of your profit margin. If the price of BTC continues to go down I suspect we will see even a bigger drop.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Argwai96 on December 26, 2014, 04:48:49 AM
decrease in hash rate and this big is mainly due to paycoin and as long Gaw keeps the promised price of around 20 usd it will continue.For sure some miners are switched off and many big farmers are selling , check bitmain site selling the s4 by the Phs.
I also have seen big sales (dont know if true) 100 sp30 100 teraminers and sure the new prices from sp tec help much.
Generally there is a no Roi period since the price of BTC is low and this is a reason for all.
if we see an increase of the price to 400-500 range then will start again fast.
Since many companies now accepting bitcoin and the same time sell it for fiat the price
is unlikely that will go up soon
 

In case you didn't notice, SHA Paycoin mining was only for a limited time. It ended today at noon EST. So no, this trend will not continue. Everyone's back to mining BTC and the network will continue to grow... hopefully slowly.
The miners will still need to take into consideration the cost of electricity and the price of bitcoin when determining if they should keep their miner online or not. The ability to mine paycoin had risen the EV of SHA256 mining but some miners may not go offline if the now lower EV is negative (or too low)


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Bananana on December 27, 2014, 02:49:17 AM
We are getting to the point where profit returns are not going to bring in investor farms. Overhead is going to absorb more of your profit margin. If the price of BTC continues to go down I suspect we will see even a bigger drop.

You are wrong, Batch 1 and 2 of ant-miner S5 sold out in few days. expect a hike of 30-40% early January.



Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: Argwai96 on December 27, 2014, 08:49:28 AM
We are getting to the point where profit returns are not going to bring in investor farms. Overhead is going to absorb more of your profit margin. If the price of BTC continues to go down I suspect we will see even a bigger drop.

You are wrong, Batch 1 and 2 of ant-miner S5 sold out in few days. expect a hike of 30-40% early January.


It was rumored that batch 1 was only made up of ~200 machines which would only work out to ~2 PH which is well under 30% of the network hashrate (it is closer to 2%). Bitman has also apparently had trouble selling their older machines as they have been aggressively been pushing their coupons 


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: smoothie on December 27, 2014, 09:48:40 AM
The last big contiguous set of difficulty adjustments downward happened for 8 consecutive periods.

Wouldn't surprise me to see 3-9 of them over the course of the next few months.


Title: Re: a 10% drop in hashes?
Post by: stonerider on December 29, 2014, 10:35:24 PM
20% raise in diff by middle of Jan'2015.