Bitcoin Forum

Roughly two years ago, Cyprus' banking system started imploding, leading to the first big price rally in bitcoin powered in large part by a surge in perceptions that it was a  safe alternative to the flawed banking system in crisis.

Well, something similar could be happening in Russia right now - with the rubble collapsing, inflation heading up (wiping out savers purchasing power) and growing talk that Russia will impose capital controls to prevent capital from fleeing (just like Cyprus did).

But bitcoin isn't benefiting from crisis this time. It's been sinking along with the ruble.

In fact, bitcoin doesnt seem to be benefiting at all from many signs the entire global financial system might be heading for another implosion.

Is bitcoin no longer viewed as a safe haven? I think its instability over the past year has really damaged its prospects of being viewed as a safe haven. Looks like it's being treated as anything but a safe haven. It's been behaving like just another pump and dump altcoin.

i would sell all BTC now. no more safe haven!

the ruble is something that is very very recent. it takes time for people to receive their weekly/monthly pay cheque, and then the following week/month see that they cannot buy as much next payday.. and then it takes time to weed through all the investment scams out there, to then come across bitcoin. and time to then purchase bitcoins.

so just because its news this week do not expect an instant bitcoin surge. it can take upto a month or two for people to react as they are still believing the hype that all their wages/cost of living are not affected and that inflation is a myth..

many russians i have spoken to think that its just affecting bank /debt interest rates (due to media propaganda). and yet to see the impact inflation has on cost of living. so just wait until their next pay cheque and they cant buy as much. then they will see media has lied to them and they need to do something about it.

Not sure many people understand the concept of safe haven, Gold IS a safe haven whatever the price is. People confuse safe haven with price.

Anyway Bitcoin IS a safe haven because it can't be printed so therefore its value can not be dissipated like when a currency collapses and a govermnet prints and prints to keep up with the drop in value. Can Bitcoin collapse, well only of everyone who holds Bitcoin decides one day it doesnt like Bitcoin but here's the thing a fiat currency once collapsed and printed into toilet paper can not regain its value. Bitcoin as interest increases again can.

So why is Bitcoin dropping in 'price'?   cause it's priced by most people here in Dollars which are increasing in 'price' compared to Bitcoin. Economics 101.

The oligarchs are too smart to keep their wealth in rubles. 

Some ruskis might be selling btc to make up for the huge  devaluation (to just get enough cash in short term).
 
Or maybe the cbr is selling btc along with the other currencies to prop up the rouble ;p

I think we are too early in crisis for bitcoin to benefit like it did in cyprus. When bitcoin was spiking during the cyprus crisis the worse was already here and people were fearing the situation would get worse.

Now in Russia, we are really only in the beginning stages of a probably crisis. Russia still have hundreds of billion dollars worth of foreign currency reserves that it can use to intervene to help support it's economy and the ruble

For Russian ppl is the safe currency USD/EUR. Cyprus was crisis of EUR.

 Did the Russia forbidden bitcoin?

not yet. they want to make new laws in 2015 and forbid the use if cyrpto.

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2F2.bp.blogspot.com%2F-MuQt5dJfXNE%2FU1v7JcOoOjI%2FAAAAAAAAByE%2FTBMDUt981W4%2Fs1600%2Fpolarbearparty.gif&t=547&c=wBH4yJ4i1WdOnA

Though if rouble completely wipes out, I could see them doing a state cryptocurrency.

Yeah. I'm glad I sold mine @500$, maybe buying back when it's under 50$ each  :)

It's still too early to make a general assumption. The downward bitcoin price could be from other non-related factors if only we know what it was and not necessarily mean to say people have lost trust in bitcoin. Just give it time. It will rightfully adjust itself to reflect the real situation.

Last year this time the price did the exact same thing and dropped down from the $800 mark to about $500 until it started recovering around the 23rd of Dec. I like to believe that traders drop the price down with the use of the news and not that the news causes the price drop.

http://i.snag.gy/M1Ill.jpg

Are you sure that enough Russians know what Bitcoin is to make a difference? I also can't find any proof online for your statement that the Cyprus financial problems were directly responsible for any increase in btc price. I read a bunch of speculation about it but no proof like a massive surge in client downloads in Cyprus or that this little island was buying all the Bitcoins.

Yah it may have been more generally FUD driven in the Eurozone.

I'm seeing Russia warming up on searches for bitcoin though.

Russia is already very much into crypto. If u look at the alexa of any bitcoin site, u'll find a dominance of Russia.

Even with Greece's financial system on the verge of potential collapse and Russia's in a tailspin, bitcoin's being treated like just another pump-and-dump altcoin now. All the big action is in shorting it.

Quite a difference from how it was treated during the Cyprus incident about a year ago.

A lot of people in a lot of places are looking for escape hatches, but not many apparently see bitcoin as a reliable one anymore.

The situation is very different. In Cyprus, people were afraid that the government would seize all they had in their bank accounts. This should not happen in Russia. At least, that's what I hope.

Somehow all these has a correlation with movement of dollar. Look at Dollar Index measured against a basket of major currencies and you will see what I mean. If you analyze the price of btc against euro, it is actually gaining not going down.

Why the hell would Russians invest in bitcoin? They can invest in oil, silver, gold.. it 's more predictable and convenient when you have millions to invest.

I think it is more that the people of europe were afraid that the situation would spread accross europe, while this case is likely not going to spread outside of russia

How could someone connect btc directly with rubble or The Cyprus crisis?

As said earlier is just speculations.

The today's downhill is because of rubble?

it is politicians and banksters that give BTC a bad reputation, and also low acceptance, which results in too few people looking at BTC as a refuge or even a form of money

after the big crash, maybe?  ;)

Well I think I calculated that to sustain BTC price at 300$ you need ~0.6 billion dollars going into the Bitcoin system/year due to the mining of new coins.

At the prices we are at now its not enough to have something something going on in some country or some other speculation going on. Speculation and tech geek money has now been invested and is running thin.

To move further you need entire nations/companies going full Bitcoin - a massive shift.

Even if the ruble went to 0, it wouldn't necessarily mean that all Russians went Bitcoin or even most - most would likely buy land, stuff, food, gold and dollars above all.


Bitcoins world domination will come, but you really have to appreciate the scales, timeframes and consequences we dealing with now.