Bitcoin Forum

the recent up turn, at least to me, seems like its not just a trend reversal but a reversal of outlook for a massive amount of people. there wasnt any heavy bounce on volume this time and nothing "extreme" happening to say "we are going to the moon for sure".. nothing major has happened.. but it just seems different this time and i can put my finger on it. anyone else getting that?

Me too. Market sentiment definitely has reached the maximum fear level. Greed will now slowly building up.

I feel the same.

Sounds like you got food poisoning.  Drink some ipecac & puke, just to be safe.

nope :-[

Interestingly though, some people like NotLambchop will always stay in a perma fear state of mind no matter what  :D

Im still a bit scared of a final trap but overall bullish :D

Are you talking about the price or what?

Just a bit worried about you gentlemen.
After listening to you sob for hours after the last "it just seems different different this time," can you really blame me?

Hey NotLambchop...I think you should know that when you trolls are on ignore, I can hear the planet Venus more than I can hear you  :D

I don't think I'm particularly good at timing the market. But I have noted a gradual change in attitude.

As an example, I was at an office party last night when one of my colleagues, who is just learning about bitcoin but has invested a small amount and is at least a tacit supporter, asked a guest about bitcoin. The guest said " I am a computer programmer, and bitcoin is a gimmick." Sounded like your usual misinformed critic. But when we asked to explain bitcoin, he presented what turned out to be a surprisingly informed and thoughtful opinion about bitcoin as a currency. And it really turned out to be more of a defense than an attack -- he didn't actually think of it as a "gimmick." I'm wondering whether he opened with that word just to get our reaction, maybe thinking it was the safer opinion to offer in an office party setting ...

And just after New Year's, I am scheduled to meet up with another colleague with the express purpose of having me teach him everything I know about bitcoin. He says he is has been thinking about investing ever since I first brought it to his attention 4 or 5 months ago but has not yet taken the plunge.

The point is that in my personal experience, the public is becoming gradually better informed, and it's a good thing.

thanks for the input, very interesting to hear about your colleague.. all it takes is for that sort of thing to snow ball and let bitcoin become a "thing" to support rather than trying to "fit in" by joining the crowed in putting it down.

the same thing happened to me last week.. iv been studying networks and software systems the last two years however i was the only one in any ways interested in bitcoin or knew any thing beyond the silk road/mtgox stuff.. suddenly i had 1/3 of the class listen to me explain bitcoin to them properly between classes lol i think they heard about microsoft and came to the decision to ask me :D all that was going through my head while explaining bitcoin to prior skeptics was "i friggin told ye so" lol

That too is interesting. Microsoft backs bitcoin, so another swath of people decide to take a closer look.

I wonder how many people will watch the Bitcoin Bowl and think: damn, it must be legit if there's a bowl game named after it ;)

(I ask that facetiously, as if the Atlantic Coast Conference and the American Athletic Conference were in any way comparable to Microsoft as a judge of the legitimacy of a computing technology ... and yet the question is actually asked in earnest!)

I felt the same way after the last dip... and then it went down further. :D

I dont even think we will see a real fear unless it goes below 250$. People are getting used to see low 300's.

But overall it seems that the days of the sharp movements are gone, for now.

Well if you own anything more than 10 BTC< then even a drop of 10$ would get you worried,
however having just 1 BTC wont affect you a lot.

A life well-spent ;)

There are only so many sellers at a given time in any market. The price cannot continue downwards unless there are people willing to sell. And those sold coins don't go into a black hole; rather they go into stronger hands: smart traders, value investors and big money looking for wholesale prices. When the market sells off heavily as it did in early October, it will either find a bottom or sell off further. So far we have found a bottom. It is a sign of strength that we bounced on high volume from $275. If sellers enter the market again and push us below $275, then other possibilities open up and more sellers will be attracted through fear. However, the declining sell volume and high buy volume after the initial selloff tells a story.

It's all about supply versus demand and what the big players are doing. Are they accumulating, preventing the price from dropping? It's likely, although impossible to know for sure. When the majority of sellers are gone, we are free to move up. It takes awhile to shake them out, especially those who have made money all year selling short. Some of this is also supply testing (shakeouts) by big money, seeing how weak or strong the market is and how many floating coins they can scare out of weak hands to vacuum up on the cheap.

There's never such a thing as 'maximum fear'. I've seen this sentiment again and again over the summer: People calling the final bottom and an imminent rocket launch. Nothing came of it.
BUT: I gotta agree that I, too, am optimistic that we may see a real trend-reversal. $300 seems to be quite a strong support. Let's hope it doesn't become a resistance again!

good point.. perhaps the new year can leave behind all the bearishness of 2014 and usher in a new uptrend.. god knows its long over due at this point.

Well it is just unfortunate that the calendar year started as the price toppled from its previous bubble high.

In the same way next year is starting from a much better entry and the headlines throughout the year could easily be 'bitcoin up 10, 20, 30, 40..100..500..n%'

i hope thats what it looks like lol 2014 could easily go down in history as the most bearish year in the first decade bitcoin has been around.. if we are still looking at the S curve thing the bubbles could come faster and stronger right?

We are still very early in terms of user adoption and coin distribution. Silicon valley have pumped nearly half a billion dollars into bitcoin in the last year, into a digital experiment with perhaps 650k users. I am not remotely concerned. Things are only just getting started.

...and continued to tank throughout the year.

NotLambchop: "This user is currently ignored."  :D

^
Your last contributions:
http://s13.postimg.org/gelcwwmuv/Capture.jpg

I don't mean to be rude, but isn't there someone else you can follow around?

If an ignored troll speaks in a forum, does he make a sound?  :o

Sounds like a perfect time to buy  :-*

No idea what the near future holds. Next year might be flat or more of the same. I'm not too bothered.

Our trolling friends may well have had a point and/or leg to stand on post the 2011 fall and the resulting lull, but these days it's becoming harder to deny that BTC will establish some sort of position in the wider world. It may be gargantuan, or just a handy niche, but it will serve a purpose for many.  

^^ Very true!

"Silicon valley have pumped nearly half a billion dollars into bitcoin in the last year, into a digital experiment with perhaps 650k users. I am not remotely concerned. Things are only just getting started."

If this is case, then we are in big trouble. Silicon Valley's $ 500 million could only support the bitcoin price at $320 at the end of 2014, how much more money is required to bring us "to the moon?"

Very few have put money into actually buying any. It's all going into the companies in the ecosystem.

He's probably talking about venture capital/company building...not just buying bitcoins

Without Willy and Marcus there never would've been a sharp movement in the first place.

Look at your 2 year chart and draw a line from (for example) January 2012 to current.

A nice, smooth gradually increasing line to where we are today.  Cuts the whole "fake gox bot price pump" out, and you see how Bitcoin has slowly gone up $150-200.

I believe that's what we will continue to see, with a slightly greater incline angle when actual adoption begins.

Gradual overall increases of $200-400 per year for the next 10 years.

If actual adoption ever begins...

-B-

So was the Willy bot responsible for every other Bitcoin bubble in existence?  Was it responsible for Billion Dollar corporations implementing it?
The answer is no.  Gradual increases of "$200-$400 per year" ("if actual adoption ever begins") is a joke considering the dramatic amount of venture capital invested this year alone, not to mention companies like Microsoft, Time Inc, and PayPal beginning to accept it.