Bitcoin Forum

Economy => Speculation => Topic started by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 04:00:59 AM



Title: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 04:00:59 AM
For what it's worth, I have seen a recent increase in the volume of sales of Casascius Coins, yet I haven't done anything recently to prompt it.  By recent, I mean over the past week, and the average volume is probably double the quantity of orders and many of them are larger than average.

I suppose it could mean anything - maybe there was a posting somewhere that got a lot of attention, or maybe a popular gift-giving day is coming up that I just haven't realized.  Maybe we've reached a hump of BTC price spurting and people now want to spend some coins.  Your guess may be as good as or better than mine, I thought I would throw it out there, just for what it's worth.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: kentrolla on June 27, 2012, 04:10:41 AM
thanks for posting this


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Hexadecibel on June 27, 2012, 04:17:45 AM
I got one for me pa!


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: SgtSpike on June 27, 2012, 04:25:17 AM
Maybe that libertarian get-together inspired a bunch of them to go out and buy some?


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: mollison on June 27, 2012, 04:31:07 AM
Maybe that libertarian get-together inspired a bunch of them to go out and buy some?

Which one?

casascius, it would certainly be intersting to know the actual volume of Casascius Coins you sold if you can divulge that. (I understand that you may not wish to, for perfectly valid reasons.)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: miscreanity on June 27, 2012, 05:03:50 AM
I ordered recently, partly because I think they're collectible, and partly for the novelty. Have to say, the service was excellent!

People have been asking me about Bitcoin recently, so it helps to make an impact when there's a tangible item. Military personnel especially seem to appreciate a real object, and tend to quickly grasp that it's a representation of value.

They're also great for birthday gifts, tips for cute waitresses (h/t Mike), and as conversation pieces, especially because of the recurring theme of financial panic seemingly without any real solutions. For some people, after discussing the concept, there is an understanding that Bitcoin could be a genuine solution instead of more lip service. I've presented coins at a number of meetups, and always wind up the popular guy after that for some reason. Must be my dashing good looks.

With that said, I ran out way too quickly. Time to order more... :)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 05:19:21 AM
casascius, it would certainly be intersting to know the actual volume of Casascius Coins you sold if you can divulge that. (I understand that you may not wish to, for perfectly valid reasons.)

There are two third-party stats trackers for my coins.  Their information is based on the fact that I have published in advance a list of all the pre-generated bitcoin addresses for my coins, along with some hints I have given to the authors of those two sites as to how I intend to use them.

http://casascius.appspot.com
http://casascius.uberbills.com

Now, day-to-day activity is hard to see for the following two reasons:

* for international orders, and for 100,1000 BTC pieces, I fund them after they are received, so block chain transactions happen a couple weeks later
* for US (and small international) orders, I usually fund a bunch of coins in a batch, and then draw them from a bin... so day-to-day order filling doesn't result in any block chain transactions.

When I first introduced the coins, it was the Christmas shopping season, and I had a really hard time keeping them in stock, with individual orders of 50+ and 100+ coins being regular.  Through the months of 5-dollar bitcoins orders were relatively slow, just a few orders a week and almost always small.  I haven't made marketing Casascius coins a huge priority, for example my website could use some new photos (and some more robust hosting), I presume that if I put more effort into it I'll sell more coins, but simply have other priorities that have kept me from it.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: mollison on June 27, 2012, 05:48:46 AM
http://casascius.appspot.com
http://casascius.uberbills.com

Nice! ;D And thanks for the all info. I will definitely consider these for Christmas, for those who can tolerate receiving the gift I wanted to give, instead of the gift they wanted to get.  ;)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: waspoza on June 27, 2012, 08:10:37 AM
Do you have pictures of silver 10 btc gold plated? Cannot find it on your site.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: apetersson on June 27, 2012, 08:25:56 AM
Quote
or maybe a popular gift-giving day is coming up that I just haven't realized.
http://redditgifts.com/exchanges/arbitrary-day-2012/
:)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Stephen Gornick on June 27, 2012, 10:21:00 AM
I will definitely consider these for Christmas,

Wow, just realized, that's less than six months away now.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: OgNasty on June 27, 2012, 01:39:13 PM
I've been watching Casascius coins for a while now but never purchased one.  Perhaps it is time for that to change.  Great product.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Tril on June 27, 2012, 01:54:17 PM
Mike you forgot you placed a big ad in bitcoin magazine for these?  :)

Also, this video of buying a Casascius coin from a vending machine is on page 2 of youtube search for "bitcoin" currently at 6300+ views.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F2K6nNj_LEE


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: farfiman on June 27, 2012, 02:30:54 PM
For what it's worth, I have seen a recent increase in the volume of sales of Casascius Coins, yet I haven't done anything recently to prompt it.  By recent, I mean over the past week, and the average volume is probably double the quantity of orders and many of them are larger than average.

I suppose it could mean anything - maybe there was a posting somewhere that got a lot of attention, or maybe a popular gift-giving day is coming up that I just haven't realized.  Maybe we've reached a hump of BTC price spurting and people now want to spend some coins.  Your guess may be as good as or better than mine, I thought I would throw it out there, just for what it's worth.

It means bitcoin magazines ( with the ad) are finally being delivered everywhere  :p


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Serge on June 27, 2012, 03:10:29 PM
consider putting up google analytics on your site, it will provide you with stats about your traffic and where it comes from if you're not using some local web stats tracking software


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: minorman on June 27, 2012, 03:50:05 PM
...
When I first introduced the coins, it was the Christmas shopping season, and I had a really hard time keeping them in stock, with individual orders of 50+ and 100+ coins being regular.  Through the months of 5-dollar bitcoins orders were relatively slow, just a few orders a week and almost always small.  I haven't made marketing Casascius coins a huge priority, for example my website could use some new photos (and some more robust hosting), I presume that if I put more effort into it I'll sell more coins, but simply have other priorities that have kept me from it.

I've used them for Christmas presents. No-one had a clue (or looked like they cared) what these shiny things were/are, but I told them that they were "worth" about $3 USD. I can't wait to see the faces next Christmas when I tell them what they are worth then (I hope they remember where they put them!).

Also - great item to have in your pocket just in case some asks you about bitcoin (which frequently happens if you wear a bitcoin t-shirt or use a bitcoin coffee mug at work).

Thanks Mike!


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 03:59:08 PM
Your gold coins seems to have come down in price? Is that correct?

I have been introducing people to BTC and since they are not the most tech smart I have been sending them your way. You will odds are get a $5,000 to $10,000 order in the next week or so and sooner 1 (maybe two) of the gold coins will be bought.

I may very well be able to dump the minimum reserve on the gold coin just by offsetting the gold price with a buy elsewhere on the market, and I am in a position where I can now easily do that.  Gold has fallen enough that the reserve is outright silly.  So yes it's fallen due to the BTC exchange rate, but I intend to drop it even more so it's a simple $200-over-spot with no reserve.

I will update the website later today, but can accept an order where the correct calculation is figured and paid regardless of what my website says.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: scribe on June 27, 2012, 04:08:52 PM
Curious - seeing some rise in interest here as well: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=90217.0

I've also literally had my first ever contacts to buy BTC via localbitcoins.com in the last days - 3 in total, 2 within minutes of each other, oddly. Will have to find out where they heard about it from.

(Don't take this as thread-jacking, just trying to draw a few threads together.)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Jouke on June 27, 2012, 04:13:56 PM
For what it's worth, I have seen a recent increase in the volume of sales of Casascius Coins, yet I haven't done anything recently to prompt it.  By recent, I mean over the past week, and the average volume is probably double the quantity of orders and many of them are larger than average.

I suppose it could mean anything - maybe there was a posting somewhere that got a lot of attention, or maybe a popular gift-giving day is coming up that I just haven't realized.  Maybe we've reached a hump of BTC price spurting and people now want to spend some coins.  Your guess may be as good as or better than mine, I thought I would throw it out there, just for what it's worth.

It means bitcoin magazines ( with the ad) are finally being delivered everywhere  :p
Think so as well :) Was just handing the magazine over to a friend of mine and he asked me about it :)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Vandroiy on June 27, 2012, 04:14:30 PM
I will update the website later today (...)

If you generally like sales upticks, update it with some images of the different coin types. You need to show these 5 BTC Coins, silver coins etc. more! People just don't like buying gimmicks when not even knowing what they look like! I've been hinting at this for a while... if you don't like sales upticks, then I dunno. :P

Anyway, thank you for the indicator! Either the magazine has more impact than expected, or something else is going on there...!


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 04:17:07 PM
Do you have pictures of silver 10 btc gold plated? Cannot find it on your site.

Have a look at this image on the wiki, which is a clipped piece of my recent Bitcoin Magazine ad.

https://en.bitcoin.it/w/images/en/e/e1/Casascius_25btc_size_compare.jpg

Here is a reduced size version:

https://en.bitcoin.it/w/images/en/thumb/e/e1/Casascius_25btc_size_compare.jpg/799px-Casascius_25btc_size_compare.jpg


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 04:21:08 PM
Congrats! Not that I would toot my own horn (*gasp* "Completely unlike matthew!") but given that everyone I handed a magazine to in Korea, everyone that my reps in the USA handed to etc all commented immediately on the Casascius coin, I would say that your advertisement paid off.

Hope you bought more than one spot!  ;)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 27, 2012, 04:22:32 PM
Not that I would toot my own horn (*gasp* "Completely unlike matthew!") but given that everyone I handed a magazine to in Korea, everyone that my reps in the USA handed to etc all commented immediately on the Casascius coin, I would say that your advertisement paid off.

Hope you bought more than one spot!  ;)

I am in for next month, same ad, but with the (gold plated B) silver coin as the centerpiece rather than the gold coin.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 04:25:28 PM
Not that I would toot my own horn (*gasp* "Completely unlike matthew!") but given that everyone I handed a magazine to in Korea, everyone that my reps in the USA handed to etc all commented immediately on the Casascius coin, I would say that your advertisement paid off.

Hope you bought more than one spot!  ;)

I am in for next month, same ad, but with the (gold plated B) silver coin as the centerpiece rather than the gold coin.

That's a much better choice in retrospect.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: OgNasty on June 27, 2012, 05:48:59 PM
I grabbed one because of this thread.   ;)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: TehZomB on June 27, 2012, 06:38:08 PM
I grabbed one because someone said it was a good way to show someone that bitcoins are a real representation of value.

Forgot where I saw that post.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 06:41:00 PM
I grabbed one because someone said it was a good way to show someone that bitcoins are a real representation of value.

Forgot where I saw that post.

The best way to show someone that Bitcoin is a real representation of value is to show them Bitcoin Magazine (http://subscribe.bitcoinmagazine.net). Why would Barnes & Noble carry a magazine (http://bitcoinmagazine.net/bitcoin-magazine-approved-for-barnes-noble-us-distribution/) about a scam ponzi scheme no-value fake currency afterall?


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: TehZomB on June 27, 2012, 06:51:21 PM
I grabbed one because someone said it was a good way to show someone that bitcoins are a real representation of value.

Forgot where I saw that post.

The best way to show someone that Bitcoin is a real representation of value is to show them Bitcoin Magazine (http://subscribe.bitcoinmagazine.net). Why would Barnes & Noble carry a magazine (http://bitcoinmagazine.net/bitcoin-magazine-approved-for-barnes-noble-us-distribution/) about a scam ponzi scheme no-value fake currency afterall?

Point taken.

EDIT: Ordered the mag :)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: cypherdoc on June 27, 2012, 07:31:24 PM
I grabbed one because someone said it was a good way to show someone that bitcoins are a real representation of value.

Forgot where I saw that post.

The best way to show someone that Bitcoin is a real representation of value is to show them Bitcoin Magazine (http://subscribe.bitcoinmagazine.net). Why would Barnes & Noble carry a magazine (http://bitcoinmagazine.net/bitcoin-magazine-approved-for-barnes-noble-us-distribution/) about a scam ponzi scheme no-value fake currency afterall?

good point.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: thezerg on June 27, 2012, 07:35:28 PM
Someone needs to hit a B&N and take a photo of it sitting in the racks... B&N is a good half hour away from me.   BTW I just bought a couple Casascius coins for gifts; this thread reminded me of 'em. Thx!


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 07:37:07 PM
Someone needs to hit a B&N and take a photo of it sitting in the racks... B&N is a good half hour away from me.   BTW I just bought a couple Casascius coins for gifts; this thread reminded me of 'em. Thx!

The magazine won't be in the racks of B&N until maybe September. It takes a while to process even after the contract is signed (which it is). Asking them to stock it is productive though.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Hexadecibel on June 27, 2012, 07:39:48 PM
barnes and noble blow me off when i ask them to carry bitcoin magazine. they say they have no control of what they  can stock.

Apparently, they can only stock what is in their system, and they dont have the mag in that system. Its different in each store i guess. I dunno, i ended up just buying a year subscription direct from the source because it was obvious they didnt want to help me. frustrating.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 07:47:33 PM
barnes and noble blow me off when i ask them to carry bitcoin magazine. they say they have no control of what they  can stock.

Apparently, they can only stock what is in their system, and they dont have the mag in that system. Its different in each store i guess. I dunno, i ended up just buying a year subscription direct from the source because it was obvious they didnt want to help me. frustrating.

Sorry you experienced that. It's possible that the distributor hasn't fully added it into the systems yet. Wait about 2 weeks and try again.

Anyway, it'll be cheaper directly from us regardless.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: SgtSpike on June 27, 2012, 08:12:24 PM
The magazine won't be in the racks of B&N until maybe September. It takes a while to process even after the contract is signed (which it is). Asking them not to stock it though is productive though.
Will do!  :D


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Matthew N. Wright on June 27, 2012, 08:14:13 PM
The magazine won't be in the racks of B&N until maybe September. It takes a while to process even after the contract is signed (which it is). Asking them not to stock it though is productive though.
Will do!  :D

Fixed. Good god what was I smoking. My grammar not Enlgihs good wut


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: OgNasty on June 28, 2012, 03:26:35 PM
Personally, I would like to see a 1oz platinum coin with 100 BTC in it.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: adamstgBit on June 28, 2012, 05:27:29 PM
hey how many 1 BTC Physical Bitcoin (Original Series)  do you have left in stock?

are you getting close to the production limit you set?


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: OgNasty on June 28, 2012, 05:36:16 PM
Personally, I would like to see a 1oz platinum coin with 100 BTC in it.

or 5,000 :)

I wouldn't want a 5,000 BTC coin, unless it was 20oz of platinum.  I'd prefer the value of the metal and the value of the BTC were somewhat close to each other.  That is what is stopping me from ordering the gold coin.  I also think gold is overvalued by about 5x compared to platinum, which is why I'd snap up a 100 BTC 1oz platinum coin, or maybe even a 250 BTC 1oz platinum coin...


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 28, 2012, 05:56:49 PM
hey how many 1 BTC Physical Bitcoin (Original Series)  do you have left in stock?

are you getting close to the production limit you set?

I am down to only having about 1200 of the "2011" coin blanks left, so that's the hard limit.  All the series2 1BTC coins I send out now either say 2012, or they are series-2 coins that were made from the 2011 blanks (since I made lots, but those are almost gone too - only about 200 left).  I intend to use the remaining 1st series stickers in my 2012 5BTC coin, and afterwards, I have a silver-colored hologram made specifically for the 5BTC coin.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: bracek on June 28, 2012, 08:11:07 PM
how about 1btc on 1 oz silver

and

1 btc on 1 oz gold

those would go like crazy, when btc catches parity ...

and imagine what would happen with silver ones, once gold parity would be reached :)
instant collectibles, also, they should be limited to a number of dollars at the time of parity


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Realpra on June 28, 2012, 08:47:12 PM
@ Casascius:

1. Do you sell blank stickers and/or coins separately?
2. Any plans for a 0.5 BTC coin (since rate is going up and 1BTC might be too much for some purchases).
3. Any plans for cheap plastic coins or bills with holo-stickers for mass-issuing/cheaper postal fee?
4. Could you allow outside inspectors to see the production process or in other ways improve the trust that you will not one day run off with all the coin charges?
5. Are you talking to any communities looking to use your products as a "local" currency? (or planning similar "stunts")
6. Do you still work on non-coin POS systems?

(by inspectors I mean like visitors from this forum in your area for instance)


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 28, 2012, 09:16:08 PM
@ Casascius:

1. Do you sell blank stickers and/or coins separately?
2. Any plans for a 0.5 BTC coin (since rate is going up and 1BTC might be too much for some purchases).
3. Any plans for cheap plastic coins or bills with holo-stickers for mass-issuing/cheaper postal fee?
4. Could you allow outside inspectors to see the production process or in other ways improve the trust that you will not one day run off with all the coin charges?
5. Are you talking to any communities looking to use your products as a "local" currency? (or planning similar "stunts")
6. Do you still work on non-coin POS systems?

(by inspectors I mean like visitors from this forum in your area for instance)

1. Yes, but only as "roll your owns".  I do not sell my holograms separately.
2. Not at this time. (My current premium is 0.31 BTC... a 0.50 BTC coin for 0.81 BTC is more than 60% premium!)  It might make sense as a roll-your-own, but for me to decide on a new coin requires a substantial investment, not too many people will be excited about this.  Maybe later as BTC appreciates.
3. Others have gone down this road.  I probably won't.
4. When people say it's impossible to prove, they're right.  If I did a new batch from scratch and someone nanny-sitted me all the way from key generation until complete production, I suppose it's possible.  But nobody would be happy about paying even more to include the cost of that person, who could be cooperating dishonestly in a scam for all they know.  In fact, a 2-key scheme is possible today, where 2 people are responsible for providing 2 halves of a key... but nobody wants to pay double the premium.  The best control to ensure I don't do that is one based on recourse rather than somehow watching me every second to make sure I didn't copy something I shouldn't.
5. No, not really.
6. Only in the context of programming them as time-and-attendance terminals for the time being.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: realnowhereman on June 29, 2012, 10:52:13 AM
4. When people say it's impossible to prove, they're right.  If I did a new batch from scratch and someone nanny-sitted me all the way from key generation until complete production, I suppose it's possible.  But nobody would be happy about paying even more to include the cost of that person, who could be cooperating dishonestly in a scam for all they know.  In fact, a 2-key scheme is possible today, where 2 people are responsible for providing 2 halves of a key... but nobody wants to pay double the premium.  The best control to ensure I don't do that is one based on recourse rather than somehow watching me every second to make sure I didn't copy something I shouldn't.

My worry, long-term, for physical bitcoin coins is this:

Some dodgy geezer buys 1 Casascius coin.  He is capable of perfectly duplicating the metal and hologram.  He cracks open that one coin and copies the private key (or not, it actually doesn't matter much for the scam), then reproduces that one coin and its address on a thousand coins.

The receivers of those scam coins can go to your website and check that their coins are genuine Casascius, and provided none of them ever crack open their coin, none will ever know the truth -- they are actually all sharing ownership of 1 BTC.

I've bought a couple of Casascius coins and they're lovely; it's a shame then that I can't think of a way in which they can be trusted.  Even though you are without doubt above reproach, your good name can be used to make counterfeits easily.

Perhaps people are never intending to use them as means of exchange, and just keep them for novelty value (I know that's why I got mine).


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: tsupp4 on June 29, 2012, 11:04:33 AM
Oh well, since I read this thread I increased the prices for the ones I'm selling on Bitmit. Sorry  ;)
http://www.bitmit.net/en/shop/c/23-money/5-bitcoin


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Realpra on June 29, 2012, 11:21:24 AM
Perhaps people are never intending to use them as means of exchange, and just keep them for novelty value (I know that's why I got mine).
I think it would be cool if we could though.

Maybe a "central bank" would need to roll and issue their own coins for each local community or just back paper with BTC.

How it was done with gold back in the day.

Then again there might be even less trust in a group of people.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 29, 2012, 02:30:21 PM


Some dodgy geezer buys 1 Casascius coin.  He is capable of perfectly duplicating the metal and hologram.  He cracks open that one coin and copies the private key (or not, it actually doesn't matter much for the scam), then reproduces that one coin and its address on a thousand coins.

The receivers of those scam coins can go to your website and check that their coins are genuine Casascius, and provided none of them ever crack open their coin, none will ever know the truth -- they are actually all sharing ownership of 1 BTC.

All of this is certainly possible in theory (just like counterfeiting a dollar) but so far, nobody has bothered to go to the effort just to scoop up the $1+ per coin I charge as a markup as a legitimate competitor, let alone go to the same length to perpetrate some fraud. If I can't beg people to realize that they could be making a dollar just to stick a sticker on a coin, why would they go to fifty times the effort for only 6.5 times the gain by going the fraud route?

Anyone investing thousands of dollars in counterfeit holograms runs the risk that the scam will be found out before he is even able to recoup his investment, as someone will surely find some subtle difference in the hologram that can be used to identify and avoid the scam coins. Such a scam just doesn't make good business sense, it makes far more sense to compete and make legit coins.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: realnowhereman on June 29, 2012, 03:34:46 PM
All of this is certainly possible in theory (just like counterfeiting a dollar) but so far, nobody has bothered to go to the effort just to scoop up the $1+ per coin I charge as a markup as a legitimate competitor, let alone go to the same length to perpetrate some fraud. If I can't beg people to realize that they could be making a dollar just to stick a sticker on a coin, why would they go to fifty times the effort for only 6.5 times the gain by going the fraud route?

Why is it 50 times the effort?  The effort to make one coin is the same for you and the scammer.

Let's assume your markup is entirely costs, that you make no profit at all.  It costs you .31 BTC to make the coin, and 5BTC to populate it.  It costs me .31BTC to make the coin and zero to populate it because I'm using the same 5 BTC over and over, and you supplied that too.

It must be possible to make them for .31BTC, because you're already doing it.  Every coin I counterfeit therefore earns me 4.69 BTC.  Every coin you make makes you zero (assuming a .31BTC cost of manufacture).

What if I go again but make fake 25 BTC coins?

Anyone investing thousands of dollars in counterfeit holograms runs the risk that the scam will be found out before he is even able to recoup his investment, as someone will surely find some subtle difference in the hologram that can be used to identify and avoid the scam coins. Such a scam just doesn't make good business sense, it makes far more sense to compete and make legit coins.

I don't see why it's not good business sense (assuming morality isn't a factor).  Something that costs you 5.31 BTC to make, costs the scammer .31 BTC to make.

It's no different from normal counterfeiting of course; people already make fake $20 notes.  The difference here -- and is why I'm raising it -- is that your website supplying a list of valid keys gives the fake coins an air of legitimacy.  It's using your good name to steal from people.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: casascius on June 29, 2012, 04:16:40 PM
Why is it 50 times the effort?  The effort to make one coin is the same for you and the scammer.

Factor in the detailed and precise effort of counterfeiting the actual hologram.  Imagine you have a hologram maker willing to be complicit.  It's not like you can just scan the hologram into photoshop and hit print.  There are three-dimensional details that have to be reproduced.  Imagine you get even one minor thing wrong, or don't reproduce one of the deliberately placed mistakes in my hologram.  All someone has to do is say "look on the XYZ side and if there isn't an ABC, it's a fake".  What are you going to do then?

Realistically, these aren't getting traded around like quarters and dollars in commerce, they are being collected as collector's items and passed out to promote Bitcoin.  I don't believe that will ever change, and the high premium cost is what will keep that in check.  When trading Bitcoins face-to-face becomes popular, my vision is that people will not trade Casascius coins, but will "be their own bank" and print their own Bitcoin cash at home (File -> Print -> Print Money) instead of paying ATM fees, and people will accept printed Bitcoin bills sort of the same way the supermarket accepts home-printed coupons: by immediately scanning their QR codes, and in the case of Bitcoin, sweeping the funds in real time.  After use, the printed bills are thrown away (or optionally reused if needed to give back change).  The possibility of fake or duplicate or counterfeit bills will be completely controlled by the fact that the recipient who scans the bill will know within seconds or minutes whether the money was good - bills will only be accepted blindly (unscanned) from parties where great trust/recourse is present.

Let's assume your markup is entirely costs, that you make no profit at all.  It costs you .31 BTC to make the coin, and 5BTC to populate it.  It costs me .31BTC to make the coin and zero to populate it because I'm using the same 5 BTC over and over, and you supplied that too.

It must be possible to make them for .31BTC, because you're already doing it.  Every coin I counterfeit therefore earns me 4.69 BTC.  Every coin you make makes you zero (assuming a .31BTC cost of manufacture).

How long are you going to be able to sell it before people wise up and realize they need to up their vigilance a notch?  Where are you going to sell it where you don't risk chargeback / recourse / getting your ass kicked?  And when people realize you're up to no good, will you have scammed enough people 4.69 BTC at a time to pay for the $thousands you invested in your fake holograms that you can't move anymore now that people know your scam?

What if I go again but make fake 25 BTC coins?

You could, but those sell far slower than 1BTC coins.  The economics are about the same - you'll net 5x as much from each customer you scam, but you'll sell way less than 1/5 as many, and will probably net the same profit before you're found out: likely not enough to cover your initial cost.

I don't see why it's not good business sense (assuming morality isn't a factor).  Something that costs you 5.31 BTC to make, costs the scammer .31 BTC to make.

Because before you can make the first counterfeit coin, you have to invest thousands of dollars in the production of holograms.  Producing holograms is very front-heavy on costs.  They are cheap to run in quantity, but expensive to set up the design.



Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Realpra on June 29, 2012, 05:11:37 PM
1. Yes, but only as "roll your owns".  I do not sell my holograms separately.
I could not see the roll-your own offer on your website?

Only the destroyed coins and if you get 5+ you get some roll-your-owns.

Also you need more pictures on your site, like one for each offer ;)


As to the counterfeiting it doesn't bother me much. The cost of faking them doesn't seem worth it. It would probably be easier to design a prettier coin and compete with casascius than replicating his perfectly.

Even if used for general circulation they seem as safe as most cash.

Even if you faked them you would have to provide a loaded address, which people could check = everything fails when people notice money is moving in and out of that address. (make that SAFER than most cash).


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: miscreanity on June 29, 2012, 06:50:42 PM
1. Yes, but only as "roll your owns".  I do not sell my holograms separately.
I could not see the roll-your own offer on your website?

Only the destroyed coins and if you get 5+ you get some roll-your-owns.

That's the correct item.

When you order those, you'll get a printed disc with the firstbit public key printed on one side and the private key on the obverse, in addition to round gold stickers to secure them against the coin. The small disc is placed against the coin (there's a circular impression that makes it easy to do so), and the supplied gold sticker is attached on top of that, forming a covering layer. It works just like the hologram in that you peel the sticker off to gain access to the private key, only you can't see the public address through the sticker.

You would use the public address to load Bitcoin value before applying the sticker, of course. Then it's a nice piece to give as a gift, although the hologram definitely makes a bigger impact.


Title: Re: Uptick in sales of Casascius Coins
Post by: Raize on July 01, 2012, 07:27:28 AM
Something I think people are forgetting, and this is obviously in defense of physical Bitcoin, but the vast majority of the people handing you a physical Bitcoin are going to be collectors or people that you KNOW. If you're buying these from people you don't know, you're always going to run the slight risk of being scammed.

By the time fake hologram coins are used, every coin before that point is still just as secure as it previously was (give or take a few months). That means the time to buy is honestly right now. I have bought from Casascius in the past and recently purchased yet again. I love being able to just show them off and give them to family and friends on the off chance that maybe someday they are worth more than their weight in gold. Call it a pipe dream, but it's definitely a way to impress and intrigue folks you run into.

Plus, I have a couple of the gold-plated 25 BTC coins in my safe for when I die, along with the names of family members that will receive them and the name of another local broker that will accept them. The more Bitcoin grows the more valuable these things become.