Bitcoin Forum

2014 – Where it all went wrong.

2014 should have been a great year for Cryptocurrency – instead, it has been a disaster. There will be many other people giving their opinion, but for what it's worth, here's my own personal take on what went wrong in 2014, and why 2015 will be much better.


2014 saw the rise and rise of altcoins, and the rise of alternative markets and exchanges to accompany them. New coins were produced on a daily basis. These 'scamcoins' were born to die. All bar a few were designed to be pumped to the highest value possible against bitcoin, and then dumped in exchange for bitcoin.
The pump and dump mentality is that of a parasite, and just like true Darwinism, this parasite has killed it's host, and it's lifeblood.
The pump and dump era is now over – and I hope it never reappears. Altcoins started out as worthy project, with Litecoin for example, but soon flooded the whole arena with pointless creations.
In order for any Cryptocoin to be sustainable, it has to have the infrastructure behind it. It needs a full network of nodes to process the blockchain, and to continue to process that data. Without this support, the coin only exists in a few places and has no means of expansion or survival.
Most of these altcoins were created for the sole purpose of gaining nominal value against the real prize – bitcoin, and then simply unceremoniously dumped on that market for whatever bitcoin could be gained. Then the next day, produce another scamcoin to do the same.

This false market has driven down the price of bitcoin, stolen bitcoin and money from everybody, and led to derision from onlookers. The whole concept and momentum of bitcoin has been diluted by this idiocy, and I am relieved that this altcoin bubble is now imploding.

The onus is on all of us to concentrate our effort on worthy projects. If we all pull together, bitcoin litecoin, and a couple of other worthy coins can then gain acceptance and adoption. Their is only room for a few right now, although at some time in the future this may change, for now perhaps 4-5 coins will cover all options.
If we do this, then the price of these few worthy coins will rise fairly quickly, and the rewards will be more than just short term – they will change the world around us. That was the original intention of bitcoin, and so many of you have lost sight of those societal aims for your own personal greed.

In my own case, I have foregone personal income for the last year in order to help bitcoin gain traction. I have put in thousands of hours – for no return whatsoever, and I have watched thousands of you getting fleeced for your bitcoin from these pump and dump thieves. The individual stories have revealed personal tragedy and loss at the hands of these scavengers, and despite my best efforts to warn people, greed has driven people to take huge risks – and live to regret those gambles.

Lets make 2015 a lot better. Stop playing the markets and stop supporting these scamcoins.

ViK.
Project Lead
The Badbitcoin Project.

Well said sir. The key here is that all the forks just made skeptical onlookers even more skeptical. Bitcoin not taken seriously is by far my biggest concern and IMHO the biggest threat to the system

Hmmm...interesting. you do have a good point there. The most damaging effect these altcoin has done towards bitcoin is the reputation. When people start to link altcoin to crypto and naturally when you mention crypto people will indirectly link that back to bitcoin. It's cynical no matter how small or how minor it is.

Interesting post, but I disagree with most of it.

First of all, the only thing disasterous about 2014
was the price drop.  Good things happened in every other
facet of Bitcoin.

Secondly, do you have any evidence or data to support
your theory that altcoins were responsible for the price
drop? 

Most likely a lot of the pumping was done by the founders
of the altcoins.  The actual money that was drawn away
from Bitcoin into alts is probably very tiny compared
to the billions in decreased marketcap...Unless you have
data to show otherwise, I'll stick to that belief.

My theory is that supply simply outpaced demand.  Not enough
people want the thousands of new Bitcoins being mined daily.
Until the block reward halves again,  price may continue
to struggle.

I do agree on one thing though:  most of the alts are
worthless and are sleazy attempts at personal enrichment.
But I think those attempts are becoming less and less
effective.

This year i can see Bitcoin Falling and another new currency shoot for the clouds.

I disagree in 2 points:
Scamcoins weren't necessarily created to be traded for Bitcoin. I think a lot of people created them to get their loved fiat money. People who don't believe in Bitcoin, just saw another opportunity to scam stupid people.

Scamcoins are not gone. There will always be new people, who think, they missed the Bitcoin-train and are looking for alternatives. Most of them will still be stupid enough to "invest" in a Scamcoin. If the damage these Scamcoins will do, will increase or decrease in 2015 I can not say with certainty, but it seems more likely that the number of fooled people will increase, when more enter the cryptocurrency market.

I agree that new currencies and projects/assets will see massive upsurge. 2.0 Platforms such as ripple, counterparty, NXT and its associated projects will lead the way heavily. I for one intend to get in early before missing the train on this one.

I see no proof why bitcoin price should rise in 2015.
And I agree with jonald_fyookball.

Even if that happens, I don't see the public being open to an immediate new idea of another digital currency. And even if it does, it would be subject to manipulation. Would be nice to see ethereum making an effect.

I see it slightly differently. If what you see is true, then this 'false' altcoin market only drew capital from short term speculators, not long term "believers".  I havent traded a satoshi for altcoins, and I suspect you didnt either. So the current btc valuation is probably a lot more representative  and therefore whats happened this year was a healthy correction. So thank you scam coins :).

BTW, keep up the good work with badbitcoins, and feel free to use idea's or contents you will find in my signature to improve your site.

I don't think anything was wrong in 2014. The price slump was the aftermath of the bubble in 2013. The price was quite stable in 2014 and Bitcoin gained acceptance from a few more merchants, including Microsoft. Not a bad year.

Oh I see. You're gauging it by how much you can get rid of Bitcoin for in exchange for analog money. That's cute.

I wholehartedly disagree. Yes, a lot of things went terribly wrong (pump and dump scams, ponzi schemes etc.) but that's to be expected with something new. Especially with something new that revolutionises the way we do financial transactions with each other. While it is messy, I see big steps forward.

And not in the last place in the world of altcoins. I think it's a good thing that there are multiple coins in existence, in fact I think the idea that there should be only one or only a few cryptocurrencies is as absurd as the idea that there should be only one or only a few email-providers. There will be a miriad of cryptocurrencies, some of them extremely local, some larger, and some huge. That's just one of the ways cryptocurrency is a revolution - our means of doing transactions are now fully customisable and can be made to fit any social structure, and not just nation states and their derivatives.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jw28y81s7Wo

Everybody just has to learn how to use this stuff. That's a process of, as we say in The Netherlands, falling and getting up again.

Yep, can agree with the number of shitcoins tarnishing the reputation of cryptocurrency in general. I also agree that the number of pump-and-dump coins is starting to die off now. I believe having a few proper exchange mechanisms in place for merchants to accept them in some cases (i.e. where sales tax and so forth need to be accounted for), a few altcoins will rise above the others.

well, 2014 has been a really bad year for bitcoin because of many factors, but mtgox is a determinat factor that has spoilt bitcoin enviroment
however, we have seen lots of new investors and enterprises that have been entering into bitcoin and I think that 2015 will be a very good year for bitcoin

It was a great year in everything but... price. It has been a year of steady infrastructure growth.

Hasn't been that bad really. Had lots of companies getting involved and I'm sure many are planning to for next year.


That's what people said about this year  :D.

2014 should have been a great year for Cryptocurrency – instead, it has been a disaster.


false. it was the best year bitcoin ever had when you know where to look at  ::)

there is no evidence for the rise in prices, and it is not possible to increase prices in 2015 :)

People need to stop focusing so much on altcoins and give bitcoin the love it deserves. We need more support for projects that put money into the bitcoin economy now, (Getting paid in bitcoin) more than we need projects that take money out (Buying products with bitcoin).

It is of course, possible.  Just requires more demand...  More people hearing about it,
and deciding they want some.  That is happening all the time, but we don't know the
virality score.

Gox would have happened without alts, negative attention in the media would have happened without alts and lots of other bad things would have happened without alts.  It's far too simplistic to try to dismiss all the subtle nuances and subtle market movements in a statement as blunt as "it was the altcoins".  Unless you want innovative but untested features being trialled on the main bitcoin blockchain, you need alts to serve as a testbed.  

Cryptocurrency is all about innovation and you can't stifle that by saying alts are bad.  If someone wants to try out a radical new idea, they can make a new coin to test it and see if it works.  Then, if it turns out to be a complete disaster, Bitcoin remains unaffected.  This thread sounds like you want everyone to put all their money in bitcoin, so you can sell and make some fiat.  2015 will be a better year without people like that.  This isn't your personal get-rich-quick scheme.

Nothing went wrong in 2014. Price bubbles are by definition unsustainable. We're entering a period of stagnation before another (and last) astronomic rise. Bitcoin is just made that way. Patience.... It won't go under 250$, no way.

Depends on how you look at things.  2014 was worst than 2013 price wise, but adoption, infrastructure, and investment wise we're really moving in the right direction.

If you look at 2014 compared to the rest of Bitcoin's 5 year history, we're on a good trajectory overall.

But yes, to get the mainstream and wall street interested, we'll indeed need to price stabilize going upward if possible, as perception around the common man's circles are is "Bitcoin's dying a slow death".

Enter Winklevii COIN ETF ?

I think another reason where altcoins brought a drop in bitcoin was due to Ethereum. I think a massive amount of ICO funds were dumped after the presale, which was actually the reason for the drop from 600 to 500. It might actually have been somewhat a trigger.

Er, Mt. Gox? Forgotten about that disaster already?

oops...for some reason thought it was last year.

I don't think it will improve. There needs to be more security in bitcoin and the block reward needs to be halved twice. Too many miners are withdrawing into FIAT>

2014 was simply the worst in my life, so not just Bitcoin. But yeah, I agree the year was pretty bad.

bitcoin community is giving a high confidence to 2015 for bitcoin I hope we don't get dissapointed

yeah!

I think that the next year is going to be a really good year for bitcoin  ;D

If you buy my product with Bitcoin, then I will assure you that the Bitcoin you spend will stay in the economy. (I.e. I promise I won't trade it for fiat on an exchange.)

The future is unknown but slowly many people have started to realized all the benefits that Bitcoin brings to the table. For those who are here for the short term try to understand that drastic change takes time.

[CURRENT_YEAR + 1] will be the year of Bitcoin!

The worst news is MT.gox

Other recent shutdowns:

Who	When	Why
__________________________________	____________	______________________________
Falcon Global Capital Bitcoin Fund	Dec. 9, 2014	Lack of interest (http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/falcon-global-capital-closes-bitcoin-fund-because-of-slow-demand.html)
LocalBitcoins (Germany)	Dec. 9, 2014	In trouble with regulators (http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-news-mash-localbicoins-closes-germany-sec-fines-bitcoin-exchange-51588)
CoinJelly	Dec. 11, 2014	Reason unknown, users refunded. (http://www.forexminute.com/bitcoin/coinjelly-bitcoin-exchange-wallet-closes-users-accounts-within-24-hours-51788)

That's just December. Many Bitcoin businesses shut down in 2014. None of those stole customer assets in a big way, so they didn't get as much press as Mt. Gox.

Sky rocketing price is the right thing?

Why does people always think it like that?

Why can't they just say bitcoin is stabilizing?

Over?   Ohh young grashopper.  Its not over.  Just look at Paycoin.

Pump and dumps haven't gone anywhere.   They've just had to adapt.  Its all about who can lie better and better.  Who can deceive more convincingly.

First it was the Government of Iceland on board with Auroracoin.  That had lots of people believing.

Now its Amazon, Walmart, and whoever - supposedly on board with Paycoin.

-B-

It must suck to go through life finding nothing but negativity in everything. But what should I expect from the proprietor of downside.com?

Anyways, here are some aggregate figures across 4 distinct sectors of the overall bitcoin ecosystem (instead of, say, three discrete cherry-picked singular examples):

2014 merchant count: Up 500%
2014 web-wallet count: Up 333%
2014 venture capital investment: Up 322%
2014 network hashrate: Up 3250%

Pantera's BitIndex boils down metrics like these into a single index: https://panteracapital.com/bitindex/ [see how the line goes up and to the right?]

Here is one theory as to why BTC had a price decline in 2014.

http://cointelegraph.com/news/113221/has-china-abandoned-bitcoin (http://cointelegraph.com/news/113221/has-china-abandoned-bitcoin)

So true.  Scam coins have run out of funny names, countries, animals, algorithms, anon features, drugs, and fertilizers to pump themselves around.  Now they are trying to be great payment methods, messengers, or some other digital commercial service.  The scam coins have upped the game, up the development costs, but they are still scamming and leaving bag holders. 

It is a shame because occasionally one service does come along and they are really trying to do something awesome and innovative but they are drowned out and copied by scammers to the extent that they don't get the support that they deserve. 

--------------

2014 was all around a good year for Bitcoin.  Yes, it saw lots of scandals, top of which was Mt. Gox, and numerous of which were in alt coins and/or people using Bitcoins illegally, but lots of development was made in the Bitcoin world with legitimate companies, start-ups, apps, services, hardware, infrastructure, users and merchants. 

2014 is similar to 2011 late crash, nothing new, when mining cost getting close to market price, the difficulty will be stabilized

Another aspect is the appreciation of USD. Since there was an anticipation of FED stopping QE, many countries' currency have dropped sharply against USD, so the liquidity of USD definitely affect the bitcoin capital inflow. Acutally the exchange rate of BTC/RUB or BTC/JPN are not affected that much, which means bitcoin acts more like a foreign currency

http://media.onsugar.com/files/2010/11/45/4/192/1922283/add9402c820cfa69_Emmy_SimpsonsSeeSaw_v7.28.10.preview.jpg

Every time bitcoin adds a new big merchant like Microsoft or Time, it gets another gremlin-auto-dumper selling bitcoins on the market.

The only way to counter-balance this effect will be to integrate BTC on the payroll side. This will balance the scales by allowing merchants to funnel the BTC from POS to payroll rather than auto-selling at market price via Bitpay and others.

Overstock would be a great candidate for this type of integration. It could even possibly put them in the role of Bitcoin buyer if the payroll volume exceeded sales volume. Additionally, any business without a retail side (such as a manufacturer) would become a BTC buyer to meet payroll needs.