Bitcoin Forum

If other, please post what you are planning to do.

It seems that the only options are to switch to BFL, or other. Perhaps you can add option(s) of continuing to use stated device (whether they be GPU, or FPGA)?

I will sit this one out and see how well they are really doing.
Perhaps even sit out how things behave around the halfing of reward.

By then I will be able to have an informed opinion about the difficulty and assumed
profitability.

In the meantime i might up the amount of shares of cognitive mining (GLBSE) since they
will be among the first adopters.

Added

wheres are the options "i dont have gpu's or fpga's but i plan on buying BFL-asic or non-BFL-asic"?

Ill Stick to my current fpgas .....AMD ill invest  into glbse ;)

You won't be "switching" then.

ASIC's will kill the casual miner. That's my opinion. It might take a year to pay off equipment, then each $150 basic asic might take another year to make $125. It wont be worth it without hundreds of thousands of dollars tied into it over years at a time.  This is part of btc goin mainstream.

I'm curious to see what a 3.5 gh jalapeño will earn per month.....

Around $37, for the first few months I guess

I intend to keep GPU mining in addition to a BFL J ASIC. My goal is 1GH/s for GPUs. Currently at 0.8GH/s.

Are you going to heat your house, or water? Because otherwise it will be just a waste of electricity. Basically everyone who's planning to continue with either GPUs or FPGAs can be placed in "quit mining" section.

Got to be more ?

For the first month but after the release of th units and when the dust settles .... 3.5 gh will be nothing at all (or am I wrong)

That's your opinion.

I usually do the math before I spell out numbers here. I'm >85% confident that GPUs will be useless within 1,5-2 month time after the first ASICs are out. FPGA will stay profitable, but ROI will be like 20+ years, or around 10 years if you got free electricity :)). The only way for GPU to be still profitable, is for btc to be $10+, and if you want to have same revenue as today, then it should be at $65+.

No one knows how much you can get the first month, except BFL guys :)). Difficulty is a bit easier to estimate, but revenue also depends on your order position...

Ahahahah, this is bullshit.

So you were able to take into account all factors of my personal situation in your calculations? Impressive.

But yeah, thanks for elaborating. The unpredictability of the future is what makes me hesitant to invest much. I'm currently only purchasing equipment that has an ROI of <3 months at current exchange rate. That limits me to some used video cards and using only the motherboards I currently have on hand. There's no way I could build a new system or even source a full system of spare parts on kijiji with that kind of ROI currently.

I can't disagree that what you are saying is a possibility but... BFL always seemed to have long wait times and slow production and shipping. I think your ideas won't come to pass for a while. Unless perhaps they were only doing low-volume before to test the market? Then there is the unpredictability of the bitcoin value.

I didn't take your personal options. I took the best brand new GPU based system bought directly from China and electricity costs of $0,035/kW. The best 'I' can get atm. Regardless of whether BFL ship in time, eventually they will.

I'll be switching my gpu's over to LTC when my 8 jalapenos arrive

My intentions are to mine my GPU's and BFL FPGA's into the ground until the bitter end (read: not-profitable).  Once/If this point has come, I'll just shut-down entirely until BFL's deadline for the trade-up program approaches. I'll re-evaluate the current mining market at that point and act accordingly.

If I do switch to ASIC: I'll upgrade my two singles but will probably wait for further purchases until there's a competitor on the market.  While BFL's products are arguably the best out there, I have great reservations about supporting them any further.  It's commonly said that the power is with the consumer as one can always vote with their wallet. Outside the upgrade, until they start operating like a proper respectable business, I'll take my money elsewhere.

While I respect your opinion, I think you're dead wrong.

signed :D

Since i do not own singles.... none from BFL.... ill mine with my Ztex cluster till the end. If by then, there is a competitor towards BFL ill have to evaluate what ill do.:(

I'll continue to mine, I don't pay for power..... wait and see how things pan out.... :)

Yeah, but how can you compete with a 10fold difficulty? I mean, say you have 20GH now, by then you will make roughly 1 BTC a day and that is without the reward halving.  There is just no way to justify the costs.

Like I said... I'll wait it out and see how it pans out..... Not going to quit now because something might happen........ this is a hobby for me.. Something fun to tinker with when I am not working...


What's goign to happen if BFL releases their asic and they only perform at 10% of advertised speeds?  I'll see it when I believe it :P

True, now is definitely not the time to panic and make rash decisions. Wait for BFL to prove it has the high hand and then make your moves. Solid approach. ;)

Other.

I don't mine now, but have pre-ordered a single BFL coffee warmer.

Seems to me ASICs, done right, are increasing casual mining, not killing it.

Other

It is an expensive investment to get over 800MH/s which produces about $80 a month for $600 initial investment. That would take 7-8 months to break even if the current return and bitcoin value remain the same but no one knows hence my Other response, not sure if investment is worth it

Investing in solar panels & setup should be worth it because it has more than one use :)

When will be  BFL's deadline for the trade-up program?

It was moved to March 1st I believe.

If BFL will really deliver, then ASIC mining will be much more easy for a casual miner. Just buy a Jalapeno or a Single SC, plug it and it's done, it will mine. Nothing to mess about. Plug and mine.

Now you need to get a decent setup if you want to mine efficiently, so a decent GPU, right drivers and so on

Some people just don't get it. The fear of loosing profit blinds I guess...or maybe just trolling others.

There is a surprising amount of people who will continue to mine with GPUs despite the impending large leaps of difficulty due to ASICs.

:o

So their trade up program starts in 7 months ? I could never get a woody for something so far away...

No, I believe it ends on March 1st. After that tough noogies. ;D

I feel like people who post in this thread need to first state their reasoning for mining bitcoins:

Profit vs. "The good of the coin"

If you're in BTC for profitability, then ASIC is the end of the casual miner.

If you're in BTC for the good of the coin, then ASIC is a casual miner's wet dream.

Depending on the cost to ship back the single that is on its way to me, I might end up mining with GPU,FPGA and ASIC. On some of my computers its like running SETI or Folding, its a drop in the ocean, but costs me nothing and will help the community/economy.

I am sure I will sell some GPUs on my dedicated rig.

Im currently a casual gpu miner w/ only 1.7gh or so. While the current unknown future of btc mining is at hand, i think i will just wait to see when asic companies actually deliver, and adopt to asic when they become more mainstream. In the meantime ill run my gpu's aslong as profitable =)

Dare I ask why 8 jal?
The price of 8 jal is equiv. to a Single, yet your producing 28 Gh/s as opposed to 40Gh/s. you're paying the same price for less hashing.
Im just curious because Im considering the investment myself.

I did it, too, because of two reasons:
1. My actualy BFL Single FPGA (first generation) is pretty loud, the coffe warmer I expect to be more quiet.
2. I plan to invest in a ASIC Mini Rig asap, after that I can spread my jal around to "spread the word" and get my family and friends into bitcoin, too.

How about "I'll switch to ASIC when it's not speculative vaporware".

I'm going to start GPU mining up again when the 7990 comes out, but I'll be mining Litecoins.

Ill probably not be mining in a year.  I have 21 video cards and 1 BFLsingle running right now.  Once my cards no longer turn a profit I will sell all that hardware off.  I will probably do a trade up if it seems like its worth the extra cost, but I'm not too keen on dumping a bunch of money on ASIC.

 I currently mine with 14 5870, 3 5970s and a 5850.
 Of these, 10 5870s are watercooled and generate hot water as well as Bitcoins.
 I am in the UK, Power costs £0.11 by day and half that overnight.

 Assuming that BFL's hardware really comes into existence in October, it is likely that there will be a period of a few months while they ship the pre-ordered units, during which time the difficulty can be expected to rise fairly rapidly. We are expecting the block reward to drop to 25 in December. Assuming that the value of the Bitcoin fails to double at this time, that may well be the point in time when I reluctantly turn off my miners. I intend to mine right up to the bitter end, undervolting my GPUs to increase efficiency and ultimately mining only overnight when the power is cheaper.
 
 And after that?

 Maybe start another alternative blockchain with a hashing scheme designed to run on GPUs, but different enough that BFL's ASICs can't handle it...

 Of course, the value of Bitcoins might continue to rise, such that GPUs might still make profit.
 Or BFL might go tits up - maybe the top dog there will do a runner with all the cash from pre-orders.
 Or something else.

 Summary: Wait and see.

This is probably what i'm going to do

If ASICs are real then it won't be a choice, either you get one or you are better don't mine (so this survey is a bit useless, if you will really be able to get 40GH/s for 1300$ then mining with gpu or fpga will be useless) but paying now for something wich doesn't exist doesn't convince me..

Yep I feel bad for the ones who paid bfl with bitcoins.

Bfl is probably using the capital to drive up bitcoin value only.. Then they can easily say oops we screwed up here's a refund of your 1300 or the equivalent value of bitcoins at that time.

An interesting question that I hope this poll will answer is what existing non-BFL FPGA miners will do.

Will they sell their device on the secondary market to recoup costs or continue mining because the incremental cost to do so is next-to-nothing?

Cost is indeed next to nothing, but the revenue will also be next to nothing...

Were you referencing my statement, or someone elses? 

If BFL does ship an ASIC, and the difficulty shoots up too high, I would rather quit mining than give a company like BFL any money.

Well, if you're agreeing that ASICs will kill the 'casual' miner, then yes I refer to your statement. What BFL does, is giving miners ability to purchase high efficiency products with high range in price. They effectively cover prices from $150 to $30k. They sell to anyone. Now tell me, why is the casual miner will be killed? I say, the casual miner's thickheadness conservatism could kill him, nothing more, nothing less...

I suppose I view it like this.  The casual miner could have mined coins back in the day just by owning a computer.  Then, you could mine if you had a decent enough video card.  As soon as that was figured out, it essentially killed the ability for anyone who owns a basic computer to participate unless they had a decent video card.  If you had a computer with a decent video card, just turn it on and away you go.  When you're done, go back to your gaming or what have you.  FPGA's came out but didn't really mess with the ability for those with just a decent video card to participate.  But, now with the ASIC  what's been done is essentially made it so that anyone who wants to participate has to spend money they normally wouldn't have on an application specific device that has absolutely 0 purpose outside of mining... just to participate.

 

I might switch once ASICs exist. But since they dont exist i dont bother thinking about it.

I'm very much I'll believe it when I see it kinda person. BFL have not proven their latest product, so I have no interest in being pulled in by their marketing out of fear of losing out, on some kind of theoretical edge if and when they do exist. I didn't miss out on any edge when the FPGA's came out, it won't be any different with the ASIC's.
I will however comment on it and watch by the side lines however.

So I will bide my time and wait until someone can actually prove an ASIC is working effectively, efficiently and wants to sell them at a half decent price. Since I just don't think they can pull off all they stated and because of that will wait until their is an ASIC that I do believe will perform like they say.

Creating ASIC is hardly a simple or easy thing, my dad (Semi-retired) did work in the semi-conductor industry and has done his fair share of projects with ASIC and FPGA's, so he let me know about the process of the different ASIC and FPGA many years ago and refreshed my memory just recently when I got into bitcoin. FPGA's are so much easier to work with for a reason, they can be reprogrammed, which is a huge advantage in newer markets. Bitcoin is a new thing, not like their is a bunch of ASIC sitting around that happen to do exactly what we need it to do.

Bitcoins as a new market, could change, security algorithm could be change, entire method could be altered, you just don't know what is around the corner. Also just look at how often with the FPGA's the hardware developers have updated the firmware for them and still are. That won't be an option with an ASIC, if there is a mistake, a bug or low performance your stuck with it.

The design process for creating an ASIC is very intense and long, something I'm not sure BFL is ready for and most definitely underestimating, I also don't think the bitcoin itself is mature enough to know nothing will be changing that won't effect an ASIC hardware 1-2 years from now making them have a short lifespan.

They are actually expensive to create, because of how they are built to specifically for your design, they are generally only viable cheaply individually when you create 100,000's + so I still think they are exaggeration of course on all their numbers, since it's just not viable at a price point let alone comparing the performance numbers. They've had a lot of orders, maybe 500-1000, I know the bigger ones would have multiple chips, but it still doesn't reach the bulk order to warrant such a low price for them.

However their is no doubt ASIC will eventually outperform FPGA's, just like the are starting to with GPU's.
I think it's too early to say ASIC's will be the next big thing and also don't think it be any time soon.
FPGA's and ASIC are common place in many other industries, they aren't always dominant over each other.

This is me also. 

Isn't that how all the old boards are configured and tuned, using different firmware? You are saying if someone buys a single they could have a $1300 brick on their hands?

What it means is that all the tuning happens at the factory, with the exception of overclocking, if that is an option.

Running with GPUs currently. When an ASIC for bitcoin mining physically exists I will most likely purchase one. I was discouraged from pre-ordering since BFL does not currently offer any sort of payment option that can be refunded if they breach their promises via release date or performance. Bank wire or BTC are the only payment options, neither of which can be recovered without co-operation of the recipient.

Thralen

Well, I could say you have to have a banking license, 'just to participate' in banking business. You need a license for frequency 'just to participate' in communication business. And there are no small licenses for starters, i.e. not affordable for an average person. Bitcoin personal banking system lets you 'mine' at very low cost. Right now you're complaining that in order to dig for gold you have to buy a shovel, since all gold on the surface is gone and you can't just take it with your hands, so to speak. However, unlike shovels for gold digging, ASICs can be eventually integrated into other, more casual items, like cars, public bitcoincard processing hubs, even laptops and cellphones. That's if Bitcoin becomes widely accepted....

This won't happen because those small mining units will be inefficient (compared to a dedicated mining rig with minimal variable costs) and will likely run at a loss.  You've also got to have storage space for the block chain, a fat enough pipe to handle the bajillion transactions per block in the Bitcoin of the future, cooling and all kinds of stuff that makes mining in anything else than a dedicated setup with low costs unprofitable.

I think trying to compare mining bitcoin to two federally regulated industries is a bit of a straw-man argument. With that said I'm not even going to bother talking about those points.  As per your shovel and mining gold analogy:  I view digging with your hands akin to CPU mining and the shovel akin to GPU mining.  You can mine for gold with a shovel, sure. You can also pot plants; dig a grave, ditch, hole; and clean up dog shit.  A shovel is a pretty versatile tool that can be used for many other things than digging for gold.  In fact, a lot of people already own shovels so re-purposing the shovel to dig for gold means anyone who owns a shovel can potentially dig for gold.  I suppose one could say that the FPGA is like a back-ho.  It's much more efficient, however it costs more to purchase and at the end of the day, in most places you need to be a ticketed operator to use one.  I view the ASIC kind of like a specialized industry specific machine:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3567/3467639046_fa719d10c3_o.jpg

 It's going to be insanely efficient at serving it's purpose (ignoring cost), and it's not something you have just kicking around the backyard.  It's also got no real use outside of it's intended industry.

All of those points aside, I think there's a massive disconnect between the current ASIC state and having manufacturers designing BTC mining ASIC into everyday appliances.  Do you honestly think you're going to see GM shipping trucks that mine bitcoins while you drive at any point, ever?  

Yes, you've provided a better analogy. But imagine being able to have that huge machinery (or a small one) which does it's work without you having to drive it or do anything? Just plug-n-...work :). That's what I'm trying to get through here. I have no idea if we ever see cars with ASICs on board, just like I had no idea if we will ever see a car with tv, computer, hybrid power and etc... Time will show, sorry for using cliches.

If ASICs hit the market, I will be reprogramming my FPGAs to undertake other business work such as LTC mining, cracking lost passwords as a commercial spin off or some other number crunching venture.

This sort of thing is not for the average Joe but then again I am an electrical / electronics engineer whom should be able to pick it up over a few weeks.

There are only 7200 coins to be mined every day no matter what kind of mining machine people setup, this is a big difference compared to gold mining

Newer hardware and heavy investment just redistribute a portion of the daily coin to people who have higher hashing power, and unless the BTC value increase exponentially, their return on investment will drop quickly as they invest more, I think this is the most interesting part in BTC

You're right, ultimately the demand for investment is dictated by exchange rate , and thus the difficulty too.

I own GPUs, and I'm switching to BFL ASIC, i choose this one ;D

I think I'll pre-order a 2~4 Jalapenos soon...
But don't know yet...
I'm still buying some 7970...

I think the BFL ASIC numbers could be close to accurate...If we look at academic research we can see that 5x speedup over FPGA is feasible on ASIC.  In fact, considering the type of algorithm that mining requires there are several papers documenting similar algorithms achieving a 4-5x speedup on ASIC over FGPA.

Now crunch a little numbers...

BFL puts two 2 FGPA  in BF single, so that's ~415 Mhash/s per FPGA.  Assume they can achieve the maximum speedup, 5x, over their FGPA = 2.075 Ghash/s per chip.  

One chip won't reach the 3.5 GHash/s reported for Jalapeno, so it means Jalapeno must have 2 ASICS (and also that they are probably not achieved the 5x speedup), at $149 per Jalapeno thats ~$75 per chip.

Single SC is at 40Gh/s that's ~19 (lets just say 20 because probably not exactly 5x speedup) chips that's $1299/20 = $61.00 per chip

Mini rig at 1Th/s is ~500 (!) chips.  At $30000 that's $60.00 per chip


Now the question is if they can raise enough funds to cover the total production cost (~12 mill for $26.00 per chip using the estimation I found) and deliver by October.

This is of course just back of the envelope calculations, but it does show that their numbers are feasible..

Good thinking, love this analogy.  I am still very skeptical of ASIC though.. we will see. I don't know much about mining, though. Just what I learn inexorably.

i really wonder how many gpu miners will be switching to LTC when asic comes out.  a couple posts mentioned it, but LTC could really take off if all the current (minus fpga) hashing power went over to LTC.  perhaps another poll is in order.

I think there's a lot of angle's here but this is the evolution of bitcoins.
ACIS were not made specifically for bit coins
they existed before., bitcoin is not a get rich quick scheme
so even if the profit so low for GPU when ASIC drops
it depends on the person if they want to upgrade.

Also one big thing butterfly labs is an american company
and this product at 1333.00 and 30g's we aren't talking cheap
they are helt over a standard and at 6000+ order i don't
think they plan on disappointing they have come through
with there mini rig's in the past., so the logical thing if
your going to keep mining is to go in with ASIC