Bitcoin Forum

Are there any out there?

I don't see that term being thrown around. But given bitcoin's price history is there really such a thing as being a perma bear?

Perhaps being a permabear with losing your stake in bitcoin with every spike you buy and fall you sell.  :D

Nagle? :D

Edward50

He watched the price go from $2 to $1200 and is still trying to break even.

How is that even possible? Kinda feel for the guy but it's also pretty funny ;D

So I guess this is a perma-bull thing now, remember the good ol' days that are long gone?

Ah, I certainly was too idealistic. I mean, I've made money- no doubt, for the amount I put int? Crazy. That said, I'm not rich and held on as I watched that price drop, and drop, and drop. It's gone so far, really I only hope it to hit low double digits so we can start everything all over again.

But this time without GOX, without Pirate, without shitty alt-coins, and just focus.

This guy ^ comes to mind when I think of the term "PermaBear".

Even Proudhon wasn't that bad.

From what I remember Edward50 was telling people to sell bitcoin at $2 in 2011 right?

Now on the down trend in price he is doing the same...

History repeating itself with the same guy?  ::)

Nope not at all. The topic is PERMABEARS.

Ahh, the trollbears got the best of you eh. If you really believe that, you should ask yourself if you maybe have become delusional.

I've seen Edward50 go bull. It was very short-lived, but he did it at least once. :P

Not sure did you mean you are disappointed in the amount of money you made for the amount you put in? (Serious question).

The scammers are not going to go away just so we can "focus".

There will always be scammers in any market as there will be honest people as well.

That is just how the world is no matter what market you are in.

Google gives 868 hits for permabear OR permabears, vs. 964 hits for permabull OR permabulls, for results from bitcointalk.org, but their numerical results are notoriously untrustworthy (mainly though once it crosses into the millions, so this one could be roughly accurate).

Seems about equal to me :D

In my mind, a bitcoin perma bear is anyone who supposedly has been investing in bitcoin longer than 2-3 years now and still doesn't have jack of return to show for it.

If you profit...is it delusional when you realize gains?

I think not.

If anyone can link to a post where Edward50 did go bull...that would be appreciated. Thanks in advance.

I didn't even think to google the term.

But as far as just browsing this forum really how many times do you see the term being used in relation to permabull?

1:10 ratio of you ask me.

Oh I made money. I guess I wish I made MORE but then of course I would be talking like the game is over yet- and it's not. Bitcoin really taught me a lesson about greed however.

You're right about the scammers. Although I think maybe the next time around bitcoin is going to be out of 'our hands', if it isn't already. The past couple bubbles we sort of built ourselves, right here. The next time around I think we will probably mostly be on the sidelines as wallstreet molds it to the financial system's existing structure.

Just a bit nostalgic for the 'good old days' I guess when it still wasn't so serious and was more, I don't know, more something....

This would be a good definition only I would use the timeframe of (all of bitcoin's price existence).

So what do you mean as "perma-bears"?

People that were ALWAYS bearish on bitcoin?


I bought at $10-$12, started selling in december 2013 - january 2014 and after that started mostly trading the big moves since there was good margin trading, liquidity was a lot better and the big bubble was starting to burst (so no point in blindly holding)

I mostly shorted this 2014, being pretty bearish all year aside from the predictable big $450-$680 short-term reversal-megapump.

At this point I am what you would consider a perma-bear. I don't have much hope for bitcoin, mainly for reasons linked to its fundamentals.
As for the technicals, the trend is down until proven otherwise. If there are signs of a strong reversal I might buy or go long but I doubt.

Am I a perma-bear or not?

I am loathe to actually search through posts, but THIS one, I am very confident on. I wouldn't forget something like this, and I didn't. ;)

One of the major things that keeps me from turning into a bear is that the current financial system will eventually change/break.

The fiat system is flawed as governments/central banks around the world get SOMETHING for nothing (pretty much nothing except ink, printers, and paper)  ;D

Permabear meaning they are always bearish (well I would count someone being 98% bearish and 2 % bullish in their entire time involved in bitcoin).

You don't sound like a perm-bear...you sound like a cycles trader. You go where there is money to be made.

No worries. Still if anyone has the link it would be awesome to see. ;D

But if it does collapse, which is quite real, it will bring everything else with it; there won't be a happy transition to bitcoin. Internet infrastructure, electricity, everything will be gone.

I'm still hoping for a very slow gradual replacement, sector by sector, of non-digital services with cryptographic ones, over the next 20-50 years.

And about bears - the fact that they stick on to here means they are into bitcoin, so they are (mostly) not hopeless. They just think sub-yearly timeframes, that's all. It is pretty obvious from looking at price graphs that bitcoin price spends 80% of it's time slowly trickling down; so no wonder bears are well fed around here ;)

A permabear would be someone who perpetually thinks the price is going to drop to X, and then when it drops to X, thinks it will drop further, the logic being that if it dropped this far it will drop some more. Like this:

So basically someone without balls who does not consider his own previous decisions trustworthy, poor bears, they must get very little done with their lives.

There are 7b permabears who do not own bitcoin. ... It is their problem, I'll have more bitcoins. :-)

I disagree. If the fiat system broke that wouldn't mean that everyday life would not go on as how it was prior to fiat currency. Yes it would be a shock but ultimately people want to use the currency that people accept. If people are not accepting USD because it falls to 0 value then there will be some other sort of mechanism (bit coin, gold, silver, or just barter) that will replace it.

Fiat currency and its system is not the heart of the entire market of the world in all goods and sources of commodities and services.

It is a bullshit system put into place so a select few people can get something for nothing.

Your bolded statement above makes me chuckle as most of the bears here want to make it appear that they truly are not interested in bit coin and just want to see it die yet they have bought it, used it, traded it... LOL

Even though he would be at a 1000+% profit if he bought at $20 back then and held until today.

 :D

I wouldn't consider the innocent ignorant who do not know about bit coin to consider them PERMABEARS.

There's not that many perma bears that weren't just total trolls like fallllling. Even people like fonzie turned bull on occasion.

I think many "permabear" investors fall prey to the notion that if they don't catch the falling knife, that they have been made to look the fool; so they never invest, even if they fundamentally believe in bitcoin's long term prospects. So for example: if you buy now at 263 (current price), and you think there's a significant chance it will be 10k or more in 1 to 10 years, but there is even the slightest chance it might drop to 200 first, then you should wait, because damn, wouldn't you feel like an idiot if that happened. I think this is true of MatTheCat, and what's more, I think he knows it.

I think ever sense trading became a bigger thing in the crypto world that you have more bearish mentalities when people are focused on trends and analysis affecting the price rather than focusing on where the tech will take us which is where the bulls come from and stay. just a thought

IMHO the difference between Proudhon and Edward50 is that Edward50 seemed to take himself seriously.

Proudhon always struck me as a playful troll looking for laughs.

You are correct. I saw Proudhon the same way.

I am always Bullish about Bitcoin being important for many reasons, but any time the price spikes "way too fast" I will quickly become bearish since we are "way overdue" for a correction.

More or less, yes. I still haven't seen a convincing use case for Bitcoin. The Silk Road and China bubbles only lasted until the relevant regulators could stop them. As a payment mechanism, Bitcoin is mediocre. Bitcoin for remittances didn't go anywhere.
Bitcoin never became the petty cash of the Internet. And Bitcoin is an ever bigger crook magnet than I expected. There's still no Bitcoin exchange with proper auditing, and the failure rate of Bitcoin exchanges is well over 50% now.

I was expecting Bitcoin to become a currency used for little stuff like music tracks and in-game purchases. That would be useful, but it never happened.

I thought Blitz would be one as well

Clifford, is that you? http://www.newsweek.com/clifford-stoll-why-web-wont-be-nirvana-185306

These things take time. A lot more than 6 years. Sheesh.

(you're also wrong about various assertions, but I tire of dissecting your posts)

I had occasion to take a look at some of Edward's post history the other day. I posted this:

The Newsweek article is awesome, thanks.   :)
How can one short article be wrong about so many details?

You're welcome. It's easy to forget for how long the internet sucked. Arpanet launched in 1969. Mr. Stoll was writing in 1995, seeing effectively no material influence on society having occurred in the intervening 25 years, despite the grandiose predictions of myriad visionaries.

I'll bet Mr. Stoll wishes he'd waited another 5 years or so before declaring defeat.

The optimists are often right; but it does often take longer than they expect.


And ICYMI, here's the famous "fax machine" quote from Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman from mid-1998 (which, unlike Mr. Stoll, is inexcusably late):

http://web.archive.org/web/19980610100009/www.redherring.com/mag/issue55/economics.html

O give Clifford Stoll a break. The only reason that as late as 1995 he thought that people would never do (gasp) commerce over the Internet was because .... drumroll .... he was waiting for bitcoin!


;)

If memory serves, Robert Metcalfe also pointed to the lack of an insecure online payment method as a critical flaw with the thesis that the internet would transform commerce.